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how is manual railroad building labor from china any more competent or good than Bolivian ones? surely china can win massive points from the local population by giving them this job, and cheaper too?
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May 20, 2015 15:02
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That's not the point. The point is to give their own workers jobs, give their own firms contracts, have a cover to dump Renminbi into the system to hold the value down vs other currencies, and most importantly give the product made at the cement/steel/whatever factories a place to go. But they've run out of mainland projects that have anything approaching the whiff of a return on investment. If those plants don't have something to soak up their excess capacity the price of the commodities will crater due to oversupply and that cuts into your export numbers/GDP. Idle the plants and you've got a fuckton of people there and in the supporting industries out of work. I'm sure the construction workers would be strongly discouraged from buying provisions and such at local stores instead of at company-owned store and at that point economically speaking the work site becomes just a little patch of China in the Amazon. When the Chinese stock market goes tits up who's going to end up being the scapegoat?
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May 20, 2015 16:14
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Shifty Pony posted:\I'm sure the construction workers would be strongly discouraged from buying provisions and such at local stores instead of at company-owned store and at that point economically speaking the work site becomes just a little patch of China in the Amazon. I doubt they'd need to be discouraged, as long as the company stores stocks instant noodles they'll be flocking there instead of trying any of that foreign garbage.
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May 20, 2015 16:43
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Shifty Pony posted:When the Chinese stock market goes tits up who's going to end up being the scapegoat? Japan is the go to scapegoat, so it will be their fault. (Alternatively, China will be shocked and outraged about Japanese businessmen making use of their local prostitutes again.)
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May 20, 2015 16:54
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Daduzi posted:I doubt they'd need to be discouraged, as long as the company stores stocks instant noodles they'll be flocking there instead of trying any of that foreign garbage. Hey man, Burger kings make anywhere in the world easier to live!
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May 20, 2015 17:11
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Al-Saqr posted:how is manual railroad building labor from china any more competent or good than Bolivian ones? surely china can win massive points from the local population by giving them this job, and cheaper too? Why would a Chinese firm care about what rural Brazilians think? Chinese labor, Chinese capital, Chinese firm reaping the profits; Brazilians don't really get anything out of this other than a white elephant. You think the Chinese firm will be around to pick up maintenance costs for a shoddily-built railroad works cutting through a thousand miles of some of worst terrain on the planet? All so Chinese goods can get to Europe a little cheaper... theoretically. This is a terrible idea. It's basically just pipe dreams spun by the Chinese infrastructure sector who have still have a government-mandated infinite credit line. In other news: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/20/china-illegally-fishing-off-coast-of-west-africa-greenpeace-study-reveals
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May 20, 2015 17:27
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Shifty Pony posted:That's not the point. The point is to give their own workers jobs, give their own firms contracts, have a cover to dump Renminbi into the system to hold the value down vs other currencies, and most importantly give the product made at the cement/steel/whatever factories a place to go. But they've run out of mainland projects that have anything approaching the whiff of a return on investment. If those plants don't have something to soak up their excess capacity the price of the commodities will crater due to oversupply and that cuts into your export numbers/GDP. Idle the plants and you've got a fuckton of people there and in the supporting industries out of work. But even if projects on the main land have a basically no return on investment wouldn't it still be better to to spend internally to give that additional boost to the internally economy to build internally consumption, than just go to quantitative easing if need be, to lower the currency value, and possibly use it to help pay off the debts in the shadow banking market somehow. Just seems weird to me, when you're desperately trying to build an internally consumer market, spending money overseas. Even if a large chunk of that does comes back still seems like the inefficiencies of dollars spent overseas would more than make up for the return on investment gains. I mean it's not like china doesn't already have a pretty huge trade surplus, so a slight increase in that shouldn't really be that big a deal, unless I missing something (more than possible)?
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May 20, 2015 17:27
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dr_rat posted:But even if projects on the main land have a basically no return on investment wouldn't it still be better to to spend internally to give that additional boost to the internally economy to build internally consumption, than just go to quantitative easing if need be, to lower the currency value, and possibly use it to help pay off the debts in the shadow banking market somehow. If the end product is worthless and not the point, what's the difference between Chinese firms, capital and labor construcing a pointless white elephant inside China or outside China?
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May 20, 2015 17:30
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Arglebargle III posted:If the end product is worthless and not the point, what's the difference between Chinese firms, capital and labor construcing a pointless white elephant inside China or outside China? Local taxes and goods and services that can't be outsourced back to china? I mean possibly that can be recovered back in profits from investments but its still money you would have to make back before its better than internal investment as far as the government would be concerned.
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May 20, 2015 17:34
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China said they're going to do a thing and therefore they will do a thing. People unironically believe things said by an authoritarian kleptocracy at face value. If China thinks it can keep its economy above the water by convincing other countries to let the Chinese build useless crap that nobody will ever use then they don't seem to understand that people from other countries aren't literal retards who can be awed into passivity by the mighty monuments of the Mao Dynasty.
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May 20, 2015 20:24
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Latins will hopefully chase them all out as they chased the Top Gear dudes out.
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May 20, 2015 20:32
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This train project is just a front operation to get access to the rainforest for venomous frog dicks and other items usable in TCM.
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May 20, 2015 23:51
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Fojar38 posted:China said they're going to do a thing and therefore they will do a thing. People unironically believe things said by an authoritarian kleptocracy at face value. No need to convince countries when you can bribe a few politicians. There's many ways to loot a country but it's a lot less complicated if you throw the local cleptocracy a bone.
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May 21, 2015 00:36
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Anosmoman posted:No need to convince countries when you can bribe a few politicians. There's many ways to loot a country but it's a lot less complicated if you throw the local cleptocracy a bone. I'm not even convinced this railway will ever come into being, because it's a lot easier to say you'll do something than to actually do it. It's why Beijing's been talking about their "economic rebalance" for the past 5-6 years and counting while simultaneously continuing to build useless infrastructure. Edit: poo poo, something like 50% or more of the articles that pop up when I skim the internet for China-related articles are some variation of "The Chinese government says they are going to do a thing by 2020, and they will accomplish it by doing another thing they are planning to do." Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 01:27 on May 21, 2015 |
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May 21, 2015 01:24
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Couple of years back China was about to start building an alternative to the Panama Canal through Nicaragua. Any day now.
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May 21, 2015 02:57
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FrozenVent posted:Couple of years back China was about to start building an alternative to the Panama Canal through Nicaragua. Any day now. That seems like a more feasible way of shipping goods to Europe than a rail line through Brazil.
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May 21, 2015 03:20
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It's certainly effective propaganda though. "Look at the ADB and the World Bank, taking forever to determine if a project they're funding will actually be useful. With China and the AIIB we'll build all sorts of stuff for you fast, regardless of how practical it is!"
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May 21, 2015 03:20
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FrozenVent posted:Couple of years back China was about to start building an alternative to the Panama Canal through Nicaragua. Any day now. They're building it right now.
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May 21, 2015 03:27
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FrozenVent posted:Couple of years back China was about to start building an alternative to the Panama Canal through Nicaragua. Any day now. That canal project is going through. But the dream canal project in Thailand is not going anywhere. Thailand has very unstable and weird political structure. Out of these dream railway projects (Brazil, China-Moscow, China-Alaska, China-Thailand), Angola and China-Moscow are more likely to realize. Basically the more totalitarian government, the more likely the mega infrastructure project will go through.) whatever7 fucked around with this message at 03:42 on May 21, 2015 |
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May 21, 2015 03:39
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"Going through" is a relative term for the Nicaragua canal because even if it went smoothly (it won't) it won't be completed for decades, and its completion is contingent on the Chinese economy continuing to boom through those decades (it won't) and Nicaragua retaining a government so corrupt that it's willing to sign a document granting a foreign corporation complete control over all public and and private lands surrounding the canal, which is the most probable thing here but still not guaranteed. And even assuming all that goes the way the Chinese want it to it still stands a substantial risk of being the whitest elephant in the Western Hemisphere because Panama is more accessible and more efficient. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 03:44 on May 21, 2015 |
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May 21, 2015 03:42
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whatever7 posted:That canal project is going through. But the dream canal project in Thailand is not going anywhere. Thailand has very unstable and weird political structure. China-Moscow isn't a thing? Back in 2012 I looked at a trip like that, and I could've sworn that it was already possible to take the Trans-Siberian to Irkutsk, then switch to a Trans-Mongolian line which runs all the way down to Beijing, probably with a gauge change in there somewhere.
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May 21, 2015 04:26
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Ofaloaf posted:China-Moscow isn't a thing? Back in 2012 I looked at a trip like that, and I could've sworn that it was already possible to take the Trans-Siberian to Irkutsk, then switch to a Trans-Mongolian line which runs all the way down to Beijing, probably with a gauge change in there somewhere. It's going to be a high speed train. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-22/china-russia-plan-242-billion-rail-link-from-beijing-to-moscow
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May 21, 2015 04:30
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Ofaloaf posted:China-Moscow isn't a thing? Back in 2012 I looked at a trip like that, and I could've sworn that it was already possible to take the Trans-Siberian to Irkutsk, then switch to a Trans-Mongolian line which runs all the way down to Beijing, probably with a gauge change in there somewhere. The current route is rather slow speed and quite old and circuitous in parts. The new plan is a brand new route that goes much more direct and higher speed, thanks to rail technology and bridge/tunnel stuff improved since the 1940s.
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May 21, 2015 04:39
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Nintendo Kid posted:The current route is rather slow speed and quite old and circuitous in parts. The new plan is a brand new route that goes much more direct and higher speed, thanks to rail technology and bridge/tunnel stuff improved since the 1940s. Definitely won't see one-sided use too. Nosiree bob.
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May 21, 2015 05:07
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Looking it up, the current route used is 4,735 miles and takes about a week. The proposed line would cut the length by nearly 400 miles and reduce it to 2 and a half days. That's average 72 miles an hour versus about 30 miles per hour now.
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May 21, 2015 05:17
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Nintendo Kid posted:Looking it up, the current route used is 4,735 miles and takes about a week. The proposed line would cut the length by nearly 400 miles and reduce it to 2 and a half days. That's average 72 miles an hour versus about 30 miles per hour now. Or you could fly and be there in 7 hours.
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May 21, 2015 05:29
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How much cut rate Vodka can you buy and/or drink in those 7 hours though?
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May 21, 2015 07:01
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The Trans-siberian today isn't really there to serve just Moscow-Beijing passengers in the first place but all the cities in between. I assume smaller towns wouldn't get highspeed service, but cities like Kazan or Perm would. Obviously there are declining returns at a point though, aand I don't know if the entire route makes that much sense together, but expanding high speed service to the Urals probably does. Moscow to Kazan is suppose to take 3.5 hours which is still probably preferable than flying if you are taking a train from central Moscow. Maybe they could get to Perm in 5-6 hours, which may be still worth it.. Service between Perm and Irkutsk probably wouldn't be efficiently used ( though Irkutsk would probably benefit from quick service to Mongolia and Beijing). That said, I think Russia has more important spending objectives like its crumbling infrastructure. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 09:22 on May 21, 2015 |
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May 21, 2015 09:19
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Ardennes posted:The Trans-siberian today isn't really there to serve just Moscow-Beijing passengers in the first place but all the cities in between. I assume smaller towns wouldn't get highspeed service, but cities like Kazan or Perm would. Obviously there are declining returns at a point though, aand I don't know if the entire route makes that much sense together, but expanding high speed service to the Urals probably does. I think of Russia as being an old person who is past his prime.
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May 22, 2015 17:41
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A3th3r posted:I think of Russia as being an old person who is past his prime. Yap, I don't think China can cash the checks Putin sign. Probably will cart home some S400, a couple submarines instead.
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May 22, 2015 19:02
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Fojar38 posted:Or you could fly and be there in 7 hours. Planes might be good for moving a few hundred people around quickly, but rail lines can move lots of cargo with lower emissions.
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May 22, 2015 20:25
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McDowell posted:Planes might be good for moving a few hundred people around quickly, but rail lines can move lots of cargo with lower emissions. But isn't it a high speed line? Those aren't for cargo trains.
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May 22, 2015 20:39
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Kassad posted:But isn't it a high speed line? Those aren't for cargo trains. It's a line that will average ~72 miles per hour. That's really not high speed, it's just more than double the current, ~30 mph overall speed. In America we run long distance freights as fast as 70 mph or more in some places.
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May 22, 2015 20:55
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e: whoops thought I was in another thread
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May 22, 2015 21:56
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McDowell posted:Planes might be good for moving a few hundred people around quickly, but rail lines can move lots of cargo with lower emissions. How much cargo is shipped from Beijing to Moscow? I'd wager not enough to cover the costs of this thing, especially with Russia's economy in the shitter.
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May 23, 2015 01:04
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Fojar38 posted:How much cargo is shipped from Beijing to Moscow? I'd wager not enough to cover the costs of this thing, especially with Russia's economy in the shitter. Someone is betting long on the counterfeit Adias track suit industry.
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May 23, 2015 01:15
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TheBuilder posted:This train project is just a front operation to get access to the rainforest for venomous frog dicks and other items usable in TCM.
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May 28, 2015 03:29
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http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2015/06/07/asian-rebound-soothes-nerves-about-global-growth/quote:China has once again defied fears that it might be embarking on a hard landing. In the past couple of monthly reports, we have warned that a major cyclical slowdown was underway, with activity growth dipping to about 5.0 per cent, compared to an estimated trend of 7 per cent. This month, however, there have been generalised improvements in data flows, taking the latest estimate of activity growth back up to 7.0 per cent. The major monetary and fiscal policy easing that has been announced this year already seems to be working, though downside risks from the real estate sector still remain.
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Jun 8, 2015 03:57
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holy poo poo https://twitter.com/S_Rabinovitch/status/607773216849854465 
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Jun 8, 2015 05:58
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So where's Chinese growth coming from? It's definitely not consumption.
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Jun 8, 2015 06:36
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