|
Baronjutter posted:And when it comes tumbling down they can just shrug and say "How could we have seen this coming, real-estate is unpredictable". Just like Harper not wanting economic or social or environmental stats proving his policies are a disaster the government doesn't want housing stats to prove their policies are a disaster or that they should have had alarm bells ringing years ago. Right, whoever's in power when this thing collapses is going to get hosed at the polls. hosed hard. For they will have erased half of the wealth of the country with their reckless socialist schemes. Knowing that foreign money is a factor, but not knowing how much of a factor it is, means boomers can tell us housing is expensive "because of the Chinese" and not because the government is deliberately pursuing this policy that makes them rich on paper.
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 19:16
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 15:10 |
|
|
Jan posted:I have a simpler solution. Change all address numbers to 4. I was talking to the wife the other day about looking up a Tang dynasty text on the minimum distance you should be from the nearest cemetary/crematorium/whatever, add modern hospices to it (since that UBC kerfuffle a few years ago showed that hospices = GHOSTS!), and then plot them all on a map. In fact, I'm bored at work, gonna do that right now.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 19:18
|
|
|
THC posted:It's a combination of "RICH CHINESE" [and other nationalities] and "locals on loose credit" and other contributing factors, it doesn't have to be just one or the other. Overly focusing on rich immigration, saying it's all the fault of "the Chinese", or demonizing the immigrants themselves for taking the opportunity we've offered them is clearly ignorance and racism. Couldn't agree more. I just don't understand the unwillingness to admit that exogenous money is a factor at all in Vancouver - occasionally encountered in this thread and elsewhere, when it so clearly is. Vancouver is not a place where decent money is to be made en masse, it has identical credit availability as the rest of the country; ergo there's something else going on, and all sensible reasoning points to exogenous money. I'm certainly not suggesting there should be ownership restrictions - it would be pointless, for one - but we might consider acknowledging this reality, and maybe, do a better job with tracking data, etc. THC posted:Knowing that foreign money is a factor, but not knowing how much of a factor it is, means boomers can tell us housing is expensive "because of the Chinese" and not because the government is deliberately pursuing this policy that makes them rich on paper. You seem like a smart chap.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 19:25
|
|
|
THC posted:Right, whoever's in power when this thing collapses is going to get hosed at the polls. hosed hard. For they will have erased half of the wealth of the country with their reckless socialist schemes. As Lexicon said, Good Post.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 19:30
|
|
|
quote:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/ei-ranks-surge-in-alberta-as-oil-shock-takes-vicious-toll/article24540867/ Get hosed Alberta
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 19:50
|
|
|
quote:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/stephen-poloz-may-have-to-drop-rates-to-zero-ex-bank-of-canada-adviser-warns Hahaha I really hope this happens.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:03
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:07
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/stephen-poloz-may-have-to-drop-rates-to-zero-ex-bank-of-canada-adviser-warns  here we come
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:11
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Australia's foreign ownership restrictions have done nothing so far. I think that's a good clue. This quote from the article provides his explanation to why they may not work. quote:The flipside to these various misunderstandings is the current focus on Australian-style restrictions on foreign ownership (Canada doesn’t even bother to track foreign ownership, let alone restrict it). Such restrictions might be an admirable goal, but I very much doubt they would have much impact on Vancouver. In light of this what is the best way to reduce the influence of foreign money? Simply additional high taxes on selling expensive property? Other changes to reduce the value of property speculation as an investment? On the high end only or in general? It's good that this discussion on Vancouver housing prices is continuing and some reporters are determined to keep trying to drill down into the details. When people first started getting concerned about Vancouver housing prices some time ago, people shyed away from seriously examining the impact of foreign buyers, dismissing the topic as a "yellow peril" type reaction, but I do think foreign money is having an additional impact on Vancouver and it needs to be explored further. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 20:28 on May 21, 2015 |
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:19
|
|
|
jm20 posted:Vancouver is honestly a lost cause for house ownership, I'm looking forward to the day when a dual income family of doctors and lawyers doesn't qualify for a real estate mortgage due to lack of income. Funny you should mention that... The Surrey Leader posted:It's not just low blue-collar service workers who are being priced out of the Lower Mainland's hot real estate market.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:25
|
|
|
Get rid of the capital gains tax exemption. E: and stop the cmhc from underwriting million dollar mortgages for Christ's sake
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:30
|
|
|
The bourgeois Vancity home ownership association doesn't accept lowly non-specialized doctors or people who have passed a bar exam. Unless you are literally scrooge mcduck sleeping on oodles of money and gemstones you will be priced out of the market for everything but low rise wood framed condos, or perhaps renting a basement from that non-foreign Cantonese language only landlord. ed: Imagine doctors and lawyers renting houses, lol Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 20:33 on May 21, 2015 |
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:31
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Get rid of the capital gains tax exemption. CAP CMHC underwritting @ 300k
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:33
|
|
|
jm20 posted:ed: Imagine doctors and lawyers renting houses, lol I think you'd be surprised
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:41
|
|
|
The CMHC would be shut down tomorrow if it were up to me. Having the taxpayer underwrite mortgages is lunacy.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 20:42
|
|
|
Yeah the problem isn't the chinese money its self, the problem is the situation being set up that it's so attractive for "investment". Set up the tax and regulation system so that housing is not an attractive investment and the foreign investment will dry up. But I mean that's the big problem, well there's two problems. The first problem is getting the anglosphere to admit they have a problem, that pinning everyone's savings and the country's economic growth on loving house values is awful. But even if we do admit this, the next and biggest problem is how to solve it because everyone's so invested in the current system. How do you shut down a scam everyone in the country is banking on? Everyone wants "something" to be done about housing, but no one wants their equity wiped out in a crash/correction. We can keep kicking it down the road at massive costs but that's just going to make things worse. But who's going to solve it? Who's going to be the politician that gets up in front of the country and explains he's wiping out 50% of people's equity and putting hundreds of thousands underwater on their mortgage "for their own good" ? No one's ever going to do that, so we're going to keep the bubble going on the best life support money can buy then shrug and say "we did our best" when it comes tumbling down. What ever government is in power when that happens is going to be hosed and entirely blamed. Unless its the cons in power, because they're "good at the economy" so it couldn't be their or their deified finance minister's fault. I mean we avoided 2008 due to our strong stable conservative banking sector that's the pride of the world, it's different here.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 21:34
|
|
|
It's basically a powder keg they've been hiding under Parliament Hill. Set to blow about 2 weeks after the next government comes to power.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 22:19
|
|
|
THC posted:It's basically a powder keg they've been hiding under Parliament Hill. Set to blow about 2 weeks after the next government comes to power. Ding ding ding. The Cons will pull whatever economic fuckery they need to hold this together until the election, since it's a win either way for them. If they hold power, crash comes, they will say it was inevitable. 4 years later by the time the next election is rolling around and we've started to climb out of recession, they can say "strong stable Conservative economy getting back on track, better not change things up now!" If they lose power, crash comes, it was clearly the fault of the reckless socialist economic experiments perpetrated by the Liberals. Guarantees the Libs one term only before we go back to the blue team. All hail Steven Harper, God-Emperor for Life!
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 22:31
|
|
|
Or the crash discredits the whole system and the NDP sweep the next federal election!!
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 22:33
|
|
|
ITT craft beer Marxists think the NDP will remove housing subsidies and implement macroprudential measures to reform the FIRE industry. 
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 23:09
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:ITT craft beer Marxists think the NDP will remove housing subsidies and implement macroprudential measures to reform the FIRE industry. C'mon buddy, you're phoning it in lately. Have you been taking your vitamins?
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 23:20
|
|
|
Franks Happy Place posted:C'mon buddy, you're phoning it in lately. Have you been taking your vitamins? The spirit of his post is bang on, though.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 23:21
|
|
|
Kafka Esq. posted:The spirit of his post is bang on, though. Well sure, the national Overton window is glued squarely in the "poo poo" spectrum, no doubt about that. None of these assholes will do what I really want them to, NDP included. But you'll have to forgive me if I think that of all the major parties, the NDP is the one most likely to tell the big banks to eat a bag of dicks when the bubble pops and they come begging for CMHC bailouts. From what I've heard from friends who work at Vancouver area banks, a thorough and aggressive colonoscopy of the banks' recordkeeping, paperwork, and lending criteria will probably invalidate a "good portion" of CMHC insurance claims, and I'm just hoping that the NDP are inclined to do that come judgement day.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 23:28
|
|
|
THC posted:They don't care. They don't want to touch it because it could deflate and suddenly we won't have the "richest middle class in the world". They want the property values sky-high so they can keep income taxes low and so boomers can be paper millionaires. It prints money. I agree with this, but more along the lines of 'they don't want to touch it because the Canadian economy is a gigantic house of cards propped up only by the FIRE industry'. Sadly this entire thread is like preaching to the choir. Talking with your typical Canadian about this is both incredibly frustrating and depressing. And with homeownership rates around 70% there's no realistic prospect of change until it's forced upon Canada by broader macroeconomic forces.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2015 23:55
|
|
|
I ran into a group of Vancouverites in San Sebastian tonight. If that's what they're all like, then I can't even imagine what sort of hell living there must be like. Good job on not even being able to say please and thank you in Spanish (or Basque), you loud, obnoxious, miserable wankstains.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 00:09
|
|
|
Your eyes caught each others indistinguishable MEC backpacks with Canadian flags sewn to them. The feeling of mutual disdain and contempt was palpable, like the stench of wet humid garbage after a monsoon. The words he mouthed at you were unmistakable "gently caress off wankstain, I'm more cultured than u"
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 00:35
|
|
|
It cuts deep
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 00:47
|
|
|
blah_blah posted:I agree with this, but more along the lines of 'they don't want to touch it because the Canadian economy is a gigantic house of cards propped up only by the FIRE industry'. I think the fact that politicians can be relied on to do whatever it takes to prop up house prices, is a reason why Canadians feel confidence in the market. As well as the fact that prices have steadily gone up during living millennial memory (at least in Vancouver). In the mainstream media housing market naysayers haven't done a very good job of expressing why a housing market collapse is imminent, other than "what goes up must come down" which is an idiom, not a great explanation. Until experts appear in the press with a more direct and clear explanation for why people should be weary of buying a house I think Canadians will continue to see the market as rock solid. There's just no one out there doing a good job of counteracting the hype from the real estate industry. What do people in this thread think are the likely routes to a housing collapse? (I might have already asked this in this thread but I forget)
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 00:54
|
|
|
^ I'm firmly in club "there probably won't be a crash". As you say, politicians will do anything to prevent one, no matter the consequences. In fact, given this belief, it's almost irrational for me not to buy. But I'm all about minimizing regret and maximizing flexibility, pretty much to the exclusion of all else. My investment portfolio is a reasonable pillow to cry into anyway 
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 00:58
|
|
|
Well, American politicians did everything they could to avoid a downright financial crash in 2008, and it was still an awful time for nearly everyone. Just because politicians are going to try to attenuate the effects of a bust doesn't mean there won't be deep haircuts all around, and spoilers it's not the richest and most powerful who'll lose their skin.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 01:04
|
|
|
Femtosecond posted:In the mainstream media housing market naysayers haven't done a very good job of expressing why a housing market collapse is imminent, other than "what goes up must come down" which is an idiom, not a great explanation. Until experts appear in the press with a more direct and clear explanation for why people should be weary of buying a house I think Canadians will continue to see the market as rock solid. There's just no one out there doing a good job of counteracting the hype from the real estate industry. I don't think this is the case. 'Contrarian' views (i.e. views from outside the reality distortion bubble of e.g. the GVRD or GTA) are dismissed even if they are leading banks, economists, or hedge funds making huge bets against the Canadian housing market. The media consistently provides only one side of the story. There are several very powerful, established players with a vested interest in minimizing public discourse on exactly how bad the state of the housing market is currently, and basically 0 analogous parties on the other side. Lexicon posted:^ I'm firmly in club "there probably won't be a crash". As you say, politicians will do anything to prevent one, no matter the consequences. I simply don't believe that the BoC or Canadian government have (or will have) large enough levers to pull to prevent an eventual crash. But they'll likely run the economy and the country into the ground in the leadup to that.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 01:10
|
|
|
^ I guess we'll see. I'm very bearish on CAD, as that's a likely casualty.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 01:24
|
|
|
How many millionaires are in Toronto? Or any large city in the world? Forty five thousand millionaires moving into a city over 7 years seems crazy to me.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 01:46
|
|
|
blah_blah posted:I don't think this is the case. 'Contrarian' views (i.e. views from outside the reality distortion bubble of e.g. the GVRD or GTA) are dismissed even if they are leading banks, economists, or hedge funds making huge bets against the Canadian housing market. The media consistently provides only one side of the story. There are several very powerful, established players with a vested interest in minimizing public discourse on exactly how bad the state of the housing market is currently, and basically 0 analogous parties on the other side. I mean more that the naysayers just skim the surface of the discussion. There's a plethora of articles highlighting the super high level of debt Canadians carry, but not much discussion beyond "this number is really big!!" You constantly hear warnings that if interest rates rose, people would be in a ton of trouble, but no deeper discussion about what sort of things could cause interest rates to rise. For average Canadians, that don't have economics degrees, and have seen near zero interest rates for years and years, it's easier to imagine that everything will remain as it is now.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 02:12
|
|
|
Singapore instituted an 18% sales tax for foreign property investors in 2011 to cool their market; seems to be working well. Bets on whether this will happen here, given we don't even track foreign capital flow? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/singapore-slowdown-have-ultra-rich-properties-hit-bottom/article24215308/ The globe and mail posted:Drawn by its glittering downtown core and luxury condominiums, villas and resorts, the ultra-rich have flocked to the city-state of Singapore. Now, a host of government cooling measures have dampened the residential property market, with many discouraged by a sales tax of 18 per cent for most foreigners.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 02:45
|
|
|
Assuming nothing changes and the Canadian government does nothing to affect the amount of debt issued by banks, a crash is going to be exogenous in nature. There are going to be a billion variables that will actually determine what would happen. Barring natural disaster, war or terrorism, my uneducated guess is that the crash might come in the form of a trading mistake where some coked up fat gently caress trader in London enters and extra zero in an order. I don't think we'll ever see something like LTCM in the 90s because the algorithmic feedback systems are more sophisticated today. BUT I AM JUST TALKING poo poo
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 02:58
|
|
|
Femtosecond posted:You constantly hear warnings that if interest rates rose, people would be in a ton of trouble, but no deeper discussion about what sort of things could cause interest rates to rise. I've been wondering about this myself. What sorts of things could lead to increased interest rates? And how do we make them happen? In other news, the house we rent has recently been sold out from under us. The new owners will be moving in, so we're out on our asses. Feels good to be compensated with a month of rent free accommodations, but sucks to have to move just 8 months after moving into the place. It's this kind of poo poo that would make me want to buy a place. Not having to worry about the landlord wanting to sell, having to allow strangers in to have a look around, and possibly being evicted. I feel like it would be insane to buy at today's prices though. Meeting the new owner for the first time, all I could think was "So you're this greater fool I've been hearing about"
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 04:47
|
|
|
B33rChiller posted:I've been wondering about this myself. What sorts of things could lead to increased interest rates? And how do we make them happen? Well high rates are used for various things such as attempting to kill inflation or trying to return back to normal after a QE overload. In terms of the crash I think the real root cause will be ever increasing debt loading so much that even rate cuts can't delay the inevitable.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 04:50
|
|
|
B33rChiller posted:I've been wondering about this myself. What sorts of things could lead to increased interest rates? And how do we make them happen? Well it doesn't look like inflation is coming back soon. Maybe something that triggers a currency crash, leaving the central bank with no choice but to raise rates as tradable inflation skyrockets (I assume Canada imports a lot of stuff like Australia)
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 05:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 15:10 |
|
|
Isn't inflation good for debtors? 
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2015 06:57
|
|