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ElCondemn
Aug 7, 2005


JeffersonClay posted:

If you assert there are no employment effects from raising the minimum wage, and you don't caveat that by saying "at moderate levels" or something like that, that's literally what you're arguing.

So it's all or nothing with you? is that the problem? Where did anyone say there is 0 effect, everyone's been referencing studies that show minimal negative effects. The most scary number of 3% is still within the realm of normal inflation, that's why people are dismissing the concerns. They're not dellusional and think it's 0 effect at all, but I guess it helps your argument if everyone is saying "there will never be any negative effects even if we raise the minimum wage to infinity!

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

JeffersonClay posted:

Dearest goon, perhaps your emotional responses have blunted your otherwise sterling wit. I don't think the people in skid row are there due to losing their jobs because of the minimum wage. I do think that higher prices in the small groceries and convenience stores where they buy toiletries, food and other necessities would harm them, and I think hand waving that away because they collect $221 a month in GR is some disingenuous bullshit.

Are those price increases serious enough to worry about compared to everything they have to deal with otherwise? If toothpaste goes up 2 cents, is that what ends them? What people reject isn't there may be some price increase, or that some people may can lost in the cracks but that it will be severe enough of a consideration to hold back.

If you are already okay with substantial increases to the minimum wage, I don't get your motive here unless it is to prove something wrong that no one seriously believes in the first place.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:32 on May 28, 2015

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments

JeffersonClay posted:

The residents of skid row are hosed either way so who cares if we make their lives harder -- a true liberal.

You are advocating a minimum wage increase so I guess this means you too.

Still does not make the nonsense you posted any less nonsense.

ElCondemn
Aug 7, 2005


LorrdErnie posted:

Do you spend a lot of time in poor American neighborhoods from your home in Scandinavia?

He saw a picture with colored dots on it, what else does he need to know?

JeffersonClay posted:

The residents of skid row are hosed either way so who cares if we make their lives harder -- a true liberal.

Maybe all "liberal" changes don't have to solve all problems? Why does raising the minimum wage have to end homelessness? Why isn't improving the quality of life for a huge portion of americans enough?

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments
Pack it in liberals, you didn't solve all the world's problems with a single policy.

Therefore you should just do nothing while I vote for the true champion of the homeless: Ronald Reagan.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

archangelwar posted:

Pack it in liberals, you didn't solve all the world's problems with a single policy.

Therefore you should just do nothing while I vote for the true champion of the homeless: Ronald Reagan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDKA97GcGpM

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

JeffersonClay posted:

If you assert there are no employment effects from raising the minimum wage, and you don't caveat that by saying "at moderate levels" or something like that, that's literally what you're arguing.

You have shown us a level of disingenuousness that I didn't think was even possible

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments
A political platform shall consist of one and only one item.

People cannot have two thoughts.

Countries cannot enact two laws.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

JeffersonClay posted:

Dearest goon, perhaps your emotional responses have blunted your otherwise sterling wit. I don't think the people in skid row are there due to losing their jobs because of the minimum wage. I do think that higher prices in the small groceries and convenience stores where they buy toiletries, food and other necessities would harm them, and I think hand waving that away because they collect $221 a month in GR is some disingenuous bullshit.


The residents of skid row are hosed either way so who cares if we make their lives harder -- a true liberal.

Then support a living minimum wage and a better inflation metric for SSI and other fixed income sources rather than whinging like an idiot about how we shouldn't do anything if there are any potential negative effects at all.

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments
The EITC, in theory, could cause demand pull inflation. Therefore if you support the EITC you support the rape and abuse of homeless people on Skid Row.

Abolish all wages, return to feudalism.

It is the only humane thing to do.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

JeffersonClay posted:


Cost of living adjustments would mitigate some of the harm here, but not nearly all of it. Things like social security, ssi, ssdi, don't actually provide enough for a person to live comfortably right now. So even if they're indexed to inflation, people on these programs will still be worse off. Imagine a person who gets 10,000 a year from ssi, but who needs to purchase 20,000 dollars of stuff to live comfortably for a year, a $10,000 deficit. If inflation is 10%, the next year the person needs to purchase 22,000 worth of goods and their ssi payment will increase to 11,000, a deficit of $11,000.

You can't directly compare the two deficits like that, you have to discount it for inflation too, genius.

If inflation over the next year is 10%, how much is that $11,000 deficit next year worth in today's dollars?

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

JeffersonClay's latest insanity has me wondering how difficult his life must be in performing normal day-to-day interactions

If you tell him "you have to drink water every day" he assumes that you're telling him to drink 50 gallons of water per day unless you explicitly state otherwise

"Hey JeffersonClay could you go to the store and buy milk" causes JeffersonClay to buy every carton of milk on the shelf, and he just throws them in the garbage because you didn't also tell him to bring the milk home

"Fill up the car with gas" causes him to fill the trunk and cab with nitrogen canisters

JeffersonClay
Jun 17, 2003

by R. Guyovich

archangelwar posted:

Pack it in liberals, you didn't solve all the world's problems with a single policy.

Therefore you should just do nothing while I vote for the true champion of the homeless: Ronald Reagan.

QuarkJets posted:

You have shown us a level of disingenuousness that I didn't think was even possible

Do you two orchestrate your posts to undermine each other or was this just serendipity?

Ardennes posted:

In your definition it isn't people on fixed incomes but people who live beyond fixed income who get their spending from undefined sources. I freely admit there will be people who fall through the cracks but at the same time, people with disabilities at least theoretically have a inflation-indexed safety net, and to be honest it isn't an issue of concern compared to anything else facing people with disabilities.

This is some holy poo poo level of bad analysis, right here. Disabled people are already hosed, who cares if they get made poorer?

quote:

He isn't, reread the book. He is using a non-Keynesian model. It is actually an extremely conservative approach without business cycles.

I initially thought the same thing when I looked at it, but no, he is a neoclassist.

I'm thinking he made the model as simple as possible in the book because he was dealing with incomprehensibly massive data sets, and a simple model was sufficient to prove his point. Also note that he was economic adviser to French socialist candidate Segolene Royal and actually taught at saltwater economics school MIT.

ElCondemn posted:

Maybe all "liberal" changes don't have to solve all problems? Why does raising the minimum wage have to end homelessness? Why isn't improving the quality of life for a huge portion of americans enough?

I'm not expecting the minimum wage to solve every problem, I'm expecting it to not make things worse for the poorest, most vulnerable people.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

JeffersonClay posted:

This is some holy poo poo level of bad analysis, right here. Disabled people are already hosed, who cares if they get made poorer?

You're going to have to explain how this happens. And you're going to have to do better than trying to directly compare two nominal dollar amounts without adjusting either of them for inflation.

ElCondemn
Aug 7, 2005


JeffersonClay posted:

I'm not expecting the minimum wage to solve every problem, I'm expecting it to not make things worse for the poorest, most vulnerable people.

You haven't proven that an increase to $15/h will be a massive problem for the poorest and most vulnerable. Your concern is unfounded, but even if it were true that minimum wage would affect the "poorest and most vulnerable" significantly, denying wage increases to those who do have jobs does nothing to help those who are earning nothing.

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments

JeffersonClay posted:

Do you two orchestrate your posts to undermine each other or was this just serendipity?

Are you on drugs?

quote:

This is some holy poo poo level of bad analysis, right here. Disabled people are already hosed, who cares if they get made poorer?

Then why do you support policy that makes them poorer? You are literally loving people on skid row.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

JeffersonClay posted:

This is some holy poo poo level of bad analysis, right here. Disabled people are already hosed, who cares if they get made poorer?

Wait do you want a minimum wage increase or not? Are you arguing against yourself?

Tell you what, disabled people would be much better served with more services and better protections then fighting a minimum wage increase just so they don't lose some tiny percentage of their purchasing power. In that sense, no it isn't a major issue The homeless guy's toothpaste costing a couple cents more also isn't a issue compared to literally everything else in his life. The scales are so out of whack it is ridiculous.

You can easily say that those people need more support than a minimum wage (which literally no one disagrees with) and then leave it at that and the government will have the money to help to boot.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 01:03 on May 28, 2015

ElCondemn
Aug 7, 2005


Doing nothing at all, the best way to help the homeless and needy!

edit: I did nothing to help the homeless this weekend, it really is a satisfying feeling to do so much good.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Let's just create a few trillion dollars and buy a bunch assets to flood the rich with free cash so they can gamble on financial markets.

But whoa whoa don't raise the minimum wage, that might cause a 0.2% price increase, can't you see how that will hurt the poor?

JeffersonClay
Jun 17, 2003

by R. Guyovich
Jeffersonclay, can you please stop being so vocal about the poorest of the poors? We're trying to help people who are better off than they are and you're just getting in the way.

archangelwar posted:

Then why do you support policy that makes them poorer? You are literally loving people on skid row.

It's why my support for the minimum wage is limited and tepid. It's why I suggested a 15 dollar minimum wage might help some and hurt others in Los Angeles.

VitalSigns posted:

You can't directly compare the two deficits like that, you have to discount it for inflation too, genius.

If inflation over the next year is 10%, how much is that $11,000 deficit next year worth in today's dollars?

Unless whatever means the hypothetical person was using to cover that deficit are also adjusted for inflation, the inflation still leaves them worse-off.

And the GR collected by the largely mentally ill people on skid row, for example, is not inflation indexed at all.

ElCondemn
Aug 7, 2005


JeffersonClay, you've really changed my mind, before I used to feel like I couldn't do anything to help the poor. I was lost, I thought that policy to help people was the way to go, but now I know better. If we don't change a thing the poors will thank us for looking out for them. Plus it's a great feeling to be on the poors side, they truly understand why I am against any policy that could improve the lives of millions. That extra 3% that remains in all the poors trust funds will really help them suffer just a little longer before starvation ends their life.

ElCondemn fucked around with this message at 01:11 on May 28, 2015

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments

JeffersonClay posted:

It's why my support for the minimum wage is limited and tepid. It's why I suggested a 15 dollar minimum wage might help some and hurt others in Los Angeles.

So you only want to gently caress the poor a little, not a little + tiny?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

JeffersonClay posted:

Unless whatever means the hypothetical person was using to cover that deficit are also adjusted for inflation, the inflation still leaves them worse-off.

Unless that hypothetical person has debt payments denominated in nominal dollars, then the inflation leaves them better off. Or that person depends on some help from people earning the new minimum wage, or begging from people earning the new minimum wage.

Why do you hate my hypothetical poor person?

And why is the answer to this problem "oppose policies with a tiny effect on inflation that's lost among our overall inflationary money policy" and not "index more benefits to inflation" or God forbid "make benefits livable"?

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 01:21 on May 28, 2015

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

QuarkJets posted:

You have shown us a level of disingenuousness that I didn't think was even possible

Not that I blame you but I take it you don't read many of Arkane's posts then?

ElCondemn
Aug 7, 2005


archangelwar posted:

So you only want to gently caress the poor a little, not a little + tiny?

The amount they're hosed now is just right.

What we can take away from this conversation is that if we ignore all the positive effects and only focus on the narrowest demographic that best fits the "you must hate the poors" narrative, the result of a policy change like this is... well, not terrible but it could be!

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

JeffersonClay posted:

Jeffersonclay, can you please stop being so vocal about the poorest of the poors? We're trying to help people who are better off than they are and you're just getting in the way.

Wouldn't cutting back on quantitative easing be a way better method of helping people on the edge who mostly depend on moneys that don't increase with inflation?

"But we can't do that!" you'll say, "we'll experience deflation and that's worse!"

No problem, I got you covered, see I just found out about this really inflationary policy: it's called the minimum wage! We could implement it, and then when the federal reserve meets, they could say "gee, inflation is X% higher than we projected thanks to the minimum wage, let's cut back to balance it out."

"But then the beneficiaries aren't bank presidents and hedge fund owners!"

Oh, yeah you're right, nevermind then.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

QuarkJets posted:

It's going to eat away at the value of the wage floor no matter what we do. So we agree that we should start raising the minimum wage now.

Phase-in also lets you study the effects in smaller increments in order to appease dumb babies who are scared that a larger increment will bring about a financial apocalypse. If the effects to unemployment and prices are going to be noticeable, surely they should be noticeable within 1-2 years; it's not like employers are going to hypothetically drown for that long and not do something about it. So let's raise the minimum wage right now by $2.50/hour and raise it an additional $2.50/hour every 2 years for the next 10 years. We'll have an actual minimum wage of $22.25/hour, effectively about $18/hour in 2015 dollars. If we notice real changes in unemployment or prices then we can halt the process and assess our options.

How come this idea always gets ignored? We've got all these people saying we don't have enough data and we can't risk doing anything without data. It seems like getting the data to find the optimal minimum wage rate should be exactly what you want.

Surely it's not just a concern troll intended to throw up smoke and delay and derail policies they dislike ideologically without any concern finding out the actual effects.

Gin and Juche
Apr 3, 2008

The Highest Judge of Paradise
Shiki Eiki
YAMAXANADU
Somehow I feel this thread has made progress. Not sure why.

Mavric
Dec 14, 2006

I said "this is going to be the most significant televisual event since Quantum Leap." And I do not say that lightly.
The poorest most vulnerable people already make $0. Well that's not true, they get quarters from strangers and all the cigarette butts they can handle. Increasing or decreasing the minimum wage will never make these people hireable, it will however make the people who put in 40+ a week and still can't support themselves better off, so what if it adds a small percent more to unemployment? That's why you invest in other types of social safety nets, for the people that cannot be employed without working for near slave wages.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Raskolnikov38 posted:

Not that I blame you but I take it you don't read many of Arkane's posts then?

Arkane is bad and dumb in a way that's consistent, JeffersonClay suffers from a level of cognitive dissonance that I don't think I've seen anywhere else on these forums. One minute JeffersonClay is proposing positive and beneficial minimum wage legislation, and then when you agree with his idea he accuses you of hating the poor and wanting a $100/hour minimum wage. Arkane never did anything like that, iirc

Also am I crazy or does this:

JeffersonClay posted:

Do you two orchestrate your posts to undermine each other or was this just serendipity?

really not make any sense at all? Was this a sick burn that I just didn't understand? I'm not sure how one post saying "JeffersonClay is a disingenuous dipshit" and another post saying "JeffersonClay is a moron who thinks that single pieces of legislation aren't allowed to have drawbacks" are undermining each other. Is JeffersonClay insinuating that there's a conspiracy to mock him or something?

QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 02:03 on May 28, 2015

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
Has jeffersonclay hosed a watermelon?

asdf32
May 15, 2010

I lust for childrens' deaths. Ask me about how I don't care if my kids die.

QuarkJets posted:

Arkane is bad and dumb in a way that's consistent, JeffersonClay suffers from a level of cognitive dissonance that I don't think I've seen anywhere else on these forums. One minute JeffersonClay is proposing positive and beneficial minimum wage legislation, and then when you agree with his idea he accuses you of hating the poor and wanting a $100/hour minimum wage. Arkane never did anything like that, iirc

Also am I crazy or does this:


really not make any sense at all? Was this a sick burn that I just didn't understand? I'm not sure how one post saying "JeffersonClay is a disingenuous dipshit" and another post saying "JeffersonClay is a moron who thinks that single pieces of legislation aren't allowed to have drawbacks" are undermining each other. Is JeffersonClay insinuating that there's a conspiracy to mock him or something?

I think the part you're missing is that minimum wage isn't really good policy for helping the poor.

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments

asdf32 posted:

I think the part you're missing is that minimum wage isn't really good policy for helping the poor.

Oh, is this where you pretend to be in favor of a UBI despite voting centrist? I want to make sure we go back and rehash the same stupidity for the 5th or 50th time.

Zeitgueist
Aug 8, 2003

by Ralp

Geriatric Pirate posted:

Good effortpost. But lol if you think Zeitgueist has ever actually been in a poor neighborhood. Just let him continue to imagine that most poor people are single mothers working at McDonald's and everyone else is covered by inflation indexation.

A) LOL you're in loving northern europe claiming I'm out of touch with American Poor
B) LOL I'd be happy to go meet you in Skid Row, let me know which hipster bar you'll be hiding in 3 blocks away clutching your wallet.

Zeitgueist
Aug 8, 2003

by Ralp

JeffersonClay posted:

I’ve been accumulating some of this for an effortpost for a week or so.

Economists (really liberal ones, at that) support indexing the minimum wage to half the average wage:

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/report/2013/06/13/66204/300-million-engines-of-growth/

http://www.epi.org/blog/a-12-minimum-wage-would-bring-the-united-states-in-line-with-international-peers/

Yes, a current $15 wage is slightly high from an economic standpoint, which is why folks are proposing phasing it in.

quote:

Economists (even really liberal ones) think raising the minimum wage to 15 is bad policy.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/us-money-blog/2014/jun/03/thomas-piketty-seattle-minimum-wage-risks-jobs

"Thomas Picketty says instantly doubling the minimum wage rather than phasing it in is a bad idea" thank you for countering a proposal nobody has made with an poorly aimed argument from authority, good job!

quote:

Minimum wage won’t help a large portion of the poor.

"a study done previously indicates that particular wage increase may not have helped people please note how this is also an argument against every minimum wage ever an argument you'll notice I carefully avoid"


quote:

If all those words aren’t convincing, I made a picture.
This is from Downtown Los Angeles, the lowest per-capita-income neighborhood in LA, and where I live. Who in this picture is likely to benefit from a significant minimum wage hike?



Nobody, I bet all the folks in that picture would be helped by making wages even less, because [trails off...]

quote:

Oh, and in today's news, Labor leaders are seeking exemptions to the 15 dollar minimum wage for union employees.

Yes because they want the ability to negotiate their own deals that might include other forms of compensation tied to a slightly lower hourly rate, but LOL if you think they're trying to get their workers LESS compensation.

Methanar
Sep 26, 2013

by the sex ghost
So how many people actually making minimum wage +/- 10%? And how many are making less than 15%/hr?

Not rhetorical questions.

Zeitgueist
Aug 8, 2003

by Ralp
By the way, for those who don't live in LA if you live in downtown LA are aren't dirt poor you are most likely quite wealthy. It's the poorest part of LA and also some of the highest rent depending on the block.

Great place to see a row of Ferraris parked outside a high end restaurant with people pitching tents on the sidewalk on the same block.

Zeitgueist
Aug 8, 2003

by Ralp

Methanar posted:

So how many people actually making minimum wage +/- 10%?

About 20 million people are "near minimum wage"

quote:

And how many are making less than 15%/hr?

Trying to find the cite but the quoted number is about 40% of all workers (120~million) so about 50 million.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

asdf32 posted:

I think the part you're missing is that minimum wage isn't really good policy for helping the poor.

Not sure how that idea relates to anything in my post. Did you quote the wrong person? I'm focusing on JeffersonClay's delusional paranoia and cognitive dissonance right now

It's really good policy for helping minimum wage workers. It's good for a great many poor people, even if it's not good for all of them. Any negative effects of a small minimum wage increase are negligibly small, so it certainly doesn't hurt them in a meaningful way

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Zeitgueist
Aug 8, 2003

by Ralp

QuarkJets posted:

Not sure how that idea relates to anything in my post. Did you quote the wrong person? I'm focusing on JeffersonClay's delusional paranoia and cognitive dissonance right now

It's really good policy for helping minimum wage workers. It's good for a great many poor people, even if it's not good for all of them. Any negative effects of a small minimum wage increase are negligibly small, so it certainly doesn't hurt them in a meaningful way

Notice, people attempting to imply that minimum wage increases are harmful should be for lowering the wage or never raising it, arguments they never actually make. They're just trying to nitpick and cast doubt on this increase, just every single other time we've raised the minimum wage and the same arguments happened.

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