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Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

Advent Horizon posted:

What does that do to the battery temperature?

Supercharging a Tesla on a hot day made it sound like it was attempting vertical takeoff, what with all the fans running.

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MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

The Locator posted:

Solution - All EV owners must live within 5 miles of a nuclear power plant.

8.2

:colbert:

Gynocentric Regime
Jun 9, 2010

by Cyrano4747

Madurai posted:

Supercharging a Tesla on a hot day made it sound like it was attempting vertical takeoff, what with all the fans running.

Yeah it was about 80F here last week, 90F in the garage, and it triggered the battery cooling system on my car; I'd never heard it before.

ilkhan
Oct 7, 2004

I LOVE Musk and his pro-first-amendment ways. X is the future.

The Locator posted:

Solution - All EV owners must live within 5 miles of a nuclear power plant.
Better solution:
Build more nuclear power plants.

Mange Mite posted:

It misses the point because the power grid for the whole country isn't just a single reserve of capacity, actual utilization and infrastructure is way more complicated. None of that is addressed at all. Infrastructure is a massive set of problems eith widespread EV adoption and the approach here is basically just to declare that it's Not even though it actually is. Like not even outline likely future advancements or adaptations but straight look at two Numbers and declre the problem imaginary. It's really weAK as anything but another breathless puff piece, which there's already plenty of.

I'm not going to go through the article step by step because I don't have the time, but in general pretty much anyone selling a revolution is full of poo poo.


Like, EVs are good and all that but anyone claiming anything close to widespread adoption within the next 5 years is full of it. Even the much hoped-for $200/kWh by 2020 for batteries is, frankly, pretty borderline and likely way too optimistic but then that's the name of the game - build hype, make super optimistic claims, get money. People forget the claims, but you keep the money.
Infrastructure is *always* going to an issue. Theres no point in building an extra 500% capacity, so we're always going to be close to the limit.
Magically, more capacity will get built as needed.
Plus the always obvious "most charging happens at night when demand from offices and A/C is lowest".

Its not getting published in some peer journal. Of course it's a hype article. But most of the points seem to be on point. And I know in my circle there is about 50% of us waiting on the 3 as a first electric car in the next 5-6 years. Don't write off how big of a change it will be to bring that kind of range, performance, and name brand to the mostly affordable $35-40k bracket.

ilkhan fucked around with this message at 17:30 on Jun 24, 2015

bull3964
Nov 18, 2000

DO YOU HEAR THAT? THAT'S THE SOUND OF ME PATTING MYSELF ON THE BACK.


Honestly, we need something to push the electric infrastructure even further into the breaking point as it doesn't seem like there's going to be political clout to actually INVEST in our infrastructure until people are without power for multiple hours of a day due to rolling blackouts.

Maybe if we revert back to where we have power that's as reliable as rural parts of India, people will wake up.

Twerk from Home
Jan 17, 2009

This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.

Hasters posted:

Yeah it was about 80F here last week, 90F in the garage, and it triggered the battery cooling system on my car; I'd never heard it before.

I didn't realize this, how well do the superchargers work in 100+ degree weather?

Gynocentric Regime
Jun 9, 2010

by Cyrano4747

Twerk from Home posted:

I didn't realize this, how well do the superchargers work in 100+ degree weather?

They work just fine, but they draw almost double power due to having to run the battery cooling system and charge at the same time.

cakesmith handyman
Jul 22, 2007

Pip-Pip old chap! Last one in is a rotten egg what what.

ilkhan posted:

And I know in my circle there is about 50% of us waiting on the 3 as a first electric car in the next 5-6 years. Don't write off how big of a change it will be to bring that kind of range, performance, and name brand to the mostly affordable $35-40k bracket.

If the rumored next gen leaf has a 240 mile range for $40k, would you consider that?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Inductive charging in HOV lanes.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Also, regarding "supercharger abuse", I asked my Tesla support contact about using it for day trips and such, because I don't have home charging ATM.

quote:

Most of our clients only use the superchargers to charge. It will have no effect on the battery. So, please have as much fun on the weekends and use any and all superchargers until you can get charging set at your home.

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot

Subjunctive posted:

Also, regarding "supercharger abuse", I asked my Tesla support contact about using it for day trips and such, because I don't have home charging ATM.

That's pretty textbook piss poor form letter customer service. That rep should be fired. I guess they had to get through a lot of inquiries that day and just skimmed over yours and hit the paste button?

quote:

Most of our clients only use the superchargers to charge.

What does this even mean?

Mortanis
Dec 28, 2005

It's your father's lightsaber. This is the weapon of a Jedi Knight.
College Slice

Mange Mite posted:

Like, EVs are good and all that but anyone claiming anything close to widespread adoption within the next 5 years is full of it. Even the much hoped-for $200/kWh by 2020 for batteries is, frankly, pretty borderline and likely way too optimistic but then that's the name of the game - build hype, make super optimistic claims, get money. People forget the claims, but you keep the money.

What do you consider "widespread adoption"?

Internet Explorer
Jun 1, 2005





Michael Scott posted:

That's pretty textbook piss poor form letter customer service. That rep should be fired. I guess they had to get through a lot of inquiries that day and just skimmed over yours and hit the paste button?


What does this even mean?

Do you have trouble reading? It means most Tesla owners only use the superchargers to charge their cars (as opposed to home charging). Is that true? I somehow doubt it. But that's what it says and is pretty easy to parse...?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Michael Scott posted:

That's pretty textbook piss poor form letter customer service. That rep should be fired. I guess they had to get through a lot of inquiries that day and just skimmed over yours and hit the paste button?

Nah, there was a bunch of other stuff in the mail about service appointments and she's been really on top of stuff through the whole delivery. (And she responded specifically to my framing of the question around not being able to charge on weekends.)

InitialDave
Jun 14, 2007

I Want To Believe.

Michael Scott posted:

That's pretty textbook piss poor form letter customer service. That rep should be fired. I guess they had to get through a lot of inquiries that day and just skimmed over yours and hit the paste button?
Perhaps they mistook the question as one of whether always fast-charging would be abusing the battery?

Michael Scott posted:

What does this even mean?
They're saying that a lot of people only use supercharger stations, never charging at home etc.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

InitialDave posted:

Perhaps they mistook the question as one of whether always fast-charging would be abusing the battery?

Yeah, she probably doesn't get a lot of people asking about the etiquette.

OXBALLS DOT COM
Sep 11, 2005

by FactsAreUseless
Young Orc

ilkhan posted:

And I know in my circle there is about 50% of us waiting on the 3 as a first electric car in the next 5-6 years. Don't write off how big of a change it will be to bring that kind of range, performance, and name brand to the mostly affordable $35-40k bracket.

I'm saying I seriously doubt this will happen because the kinds of cost reductions Tesla has to achieve in order to hit that price point with that range is probably not going to happen. As in even their supporters admit that the numbers are "quite optimistic" though "not impossible"

Tesla pretty commonly fails to deliver on a lot of what they promise when first announcing a product. See: Tesla Roadster delays and performance changes, Model X delays, Model S still not having automatic parking, supercruise, or many other promised features, etc.

wilfredmerriweathr
Jul 11, 2005
Honestly I give zero fucks. Once I can afford an electric car that goes 250 miles on a charge, I will buy one. I don't give a flying gently caress about any other options or the price once it hits the magical price point of "something I can afford."

Most of my friends are in the same boat.

I will remind you that regardless of delays this dude is the same guy that has built rockets that can reliably resupply the ISS. I trust that he will eventually do what he says he has set out to do.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Mange Mite posted:

I'm saying I seriously doubt this will happen because the kinds of cost reductions Tesla has to achieve in order to hit that price point with that range is probably not going to happen. As in even their supporters admit that the numbers are "quite optimistic" though "not impossible"

Do you think that if the cost reduction fails to meet the expectation, the entire thing is off? Or if it's more expensive than predicted, slower sales can be expected? All of that is very interesting conjecture, the experience so far is that the price reduction is happening faster than previously predicted: http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/electric-vehicle-batteries-already-cheaper-than-2020-projections/


Mange Mite posted:

Tesla pretty commonly fails to deliver on a lot of what they promise when first announcing a product. See: Tesla Roadster delays and performance changes, Model X delays, Model S still not having automatic parking, supercruise, or many other promised features, etc.

Every big thing that has happened in the last hundred years happened slower than the crazy cheering optimists wanted it to. So with this. Yet, the things happened eventually.

If there's one thing I am critical about right now, it is not battery-electric. That poo poo is excellent, from politics to pipe. The thing that sucks is Tesla's obsession with automation and self-driving. I was doubtful before, reading Tesla-drivers' experiences now makes me hate it - the flaws might be tiny but they are symptomatic of a developer mindset that is so far removed from the real world, it should not be deployed in the real world.

OXBALLS DOT COM
Sep 11, 2005

by FactsAreUseless
Young Orc

Ola posted:

Do you think that if the cost reduction fails to meet the expectation, the entire thing is off? Or if it's more expensive than predicted, slower sales can be expected? All of that is very interesting conjecture, the experience so far is that the price reduction is happening faster than previously predicted: http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/electric-vehicle-batteries-already-cheaper-than-2020-projections/


Every big thing that has happened in the last hundred years happened slower than the crazy cheering optimists wanted it to. So with this. Yet, the things happened eventually.

If there's one thing I am critical about right now, it is not battery-electric. That poo poo is excellent, from politics to pipe. The thing that sucks is Tesla's obsession with automation and self-driving. I was doubtful before, reading Tesla-drivers' experiences now makes me hate it - the flaws might be tiny but they are symptomatic of a developer mindset that is so far removed from the real world, it should not be deployed in the real world.

It's right in that link you posted:

quote:

There are large uncertainties in the paper's findings. Despite being the most comprehensive review to date, it relies on "sparse data" and acknowledges that a secretive industry might avoid revealing high costs, or conversely might subsidise battery packs to gain market share.

Overall it is "possible" that economies of scale will push costs down towards $200 kilowatt hour "in the near future even without further cell chemistry improvements", the paper concludes.
It's "not impossible" but pretty questionable, and considering the level of hype there is and Tesla/Musk's general track record (and overall PR power), I'm highly skeptical. It's SOP with a lot of these companies - make silly predictions and if you fail, well, nobody remembers so long as the money keeps rolling in. Quite a few high-profile battery / EV startups have failed recently and every single time, it's because they ran out of cash before whatever as-yet-undiscovered thing they need to hit their projections appeared.

It's not just about "optimism." These start-ups need constant infusions of capital and hype is how you get it. Not to mention the fact that everyone making money off the speculation isn't in a hurry to get in touch with reality anytime soon.


Also, in terms of design, the Tesla has some dumb issues (weird ergonomics, stupid touch-centric interface, and annoying things like not being able to turn the radio off ever) but in general pretty much all the automated driving stuff in the car seems to be licensed from industry suppliers and is no different from the adaptive cruise control that's available on pretty much every luxury car and even, in the latest redesigns, regular cars like Mazdas and Subarus. So far none of the promised advanced automation has actually appeared yet, and probably won't for a while. Dunno, what flaws have been pointed out? The ones above are the ones I've noticed.

edit: for real, though, is there a way to turn the radio off? Like not on mute but actually off?

OXBALLS DOT COM fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Jun 24, 2015

PerniciousKnid
Sep 13, 2006

Mange Mite posted:

edit: for real, though, is there a way to turn the radio off? Like not on mute but actually off?

Maybe it's been turned off the whole time. :ghost:

InitialDave
Jun 14, 2007

I Want To Believe.

Mange Mite posted:

edit: for real, though, is there a way to turn the radio off? Like not on mute but actually off?
A lot of modern infotainment systems do this. It's a minor irritation, but you get used to it.

angryrobots
Mar 31, 2005

ilkhan posted:

Better solution:
Build more nuclear power plants.
Problem:
They only get built and maintained via massive subsidy, and you may have heard, those are getting harder to come by for various political reasons. Also, even for companies that can work the economics, there's the "not in my backyard" mentality.

But yes, unless consumers start actually trying to be efficient with electricity use, more power plants are needed.

quote:

Infrastructure is *always* going to an issue. Theres no point in building an extra 500% capacity, so we're always going to be close to the limit.
Magically, more capacity will get built as needed.
Plus the always obvious "most charging happens at night when demand from offices and A/C is lowest".
Not magically. Perhaps even with some nasty growing pains. You are right that off-peak charging is ideal and (depending on the situation) could work out OK.... Except that people aren't going to wait until 9 or 10pm to fire up the EV charger. They will plug it in as soon as they get home, adding to peak load.

eeenmachine
Feb 2, 2004

BUY MORE CRABS

angryrobots posted:

Except that people aren't going to wait until 9 or 10pm to fire up the EV charger. They will plug it in as soon as they get home, adding to peak load.

Most electric cars encourage you to set a timer for later in the night to take advantage of cheaper off-peak energy rates. People drive across town to save a few cents a gallon, they'll set a timer to save a few cents per kWh.

wilfredmerriweathr
Jul 11, 2005

angryrobots posted:

Problem:
They only get built and maintained via massive subsidy, and you may have heard, those are getting harder to come by for various political reasons. Also, even for companies that can work the economics, there's the "not in my backyard" mentality.


I'm pretty convinced this is going to be a non-issue in the future. We need electricity and at some point people will realize we need to generate it using means other than burning fossil fuels. Nuclear is the only way forward for a lot of the world (supplemented by hydro, wind and solar of course.)

The nimby folks will change their tune pretty quick when they don't have AC in the summer or heat in the winter due to energy shortages.

ilkhan
Oct 7, 2004

I LOVE Musk and his pro-first-amendment ways. X is the future.

angryrobots posted:

Not magically. Perhaps even with some nasty growing pains. You are right that off-peak charging is ideal and (depending on the situation) could work out OK.... Except that people aren't going to wait until 9 or 10pm to fire up the EV charger. They will plug it in as soon as they get home, adding to peak load.
And adding 2 cents of logic to not turn on the charger until 10PM will cost 2 cents. The market will adapt.
Maybe they'll add a button "start charging now", but the default option will be to wait for off-peak hours as the providers will be providing cost savings for doing that.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Or they'll get signals from the smart meter to start charging during capacity shifts.

angryrobots
Mar 31, 2005

All those things could happen. But, most utilities do not currently offer peak/off peak rates for residential customers.

I'm not against EV in any way, I just think "don't worry about it, the market will adjust" is hopelessly optimistic. At the same time as EV becomes more popular, there has to be a push for efficiency, there is lots of needless waste in most American homes.

The Locator
Sep 12, 2004

Out here, everything hurts.





angryrobots posted:

All those things could happen. But, most utilities do not currently offer peak/off peak rates for residential customers.

Where do you get this tid-bit?

I don't have a huge amount of utility exposure, since I haven't moved around much in my life, but every single electric utility that I've dealt with has had peak/off peak rates for residential customers.

wolrah
May 8, 2006
what?
Between two different FirstEnergy subsidiaries and a rural co-op I haven't ever seen variable rates here in Ohio.

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot
I live in a major city and off/on-peak pricing is not offered, it's just one price for the kWh.

Michael Scott fucked around with this message at 02:59 on Jun 25, 2015

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Mange Mite posted:

It misses the point because the power grid for the whole country isn't just a single reserve of capacity, actual utilization and infrastructure is way more complicated. None of that is addressed at all. Infrastructure is a massive set of problems eith widespread EV adoption and the approach here is basically just to declare that it's Not even though it actually is. Like not even outline likely future advancements or adaptations but straight look at two Numbers and declre the problem imaginary. It's really weAK as anything but another breathless puff piece, which there's already plenty of.

I'll trust her word over your objections. There wont be a problem

quote:

I'm not going to go through the article step by step because I don't have the time, but in general pretty much anyone selling a revolution is full of poo poo.


Translation : I have no real argument please believe my objections are more worth listening to than the article that actually does quote sources and calculations.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Mange Mite posted:

It's right in that link you posted:

Selectively quoting critical bits will get you far, but the simple fact is that batteries now are cheaper than we thought they would be a few years ago. So it might be in the future as well.


Mange Mite posted:


It's "not impossible" but pretty questionable, and considering the level of hype there is and Tesla/Musk's general track record (and overall PR power), I'm highly skeptical. It's SOP with a lot of these companies - make silly predictions and if you fail, well, nobody remembers so long as the money keeps rolling in.

This is how every company behaves, even century-old ones.

Mange Mite posted:

Quite a few high-profile battery / EV startups have failed recently and every single time, it's because they ran out of cash before whatever as-yet-undiscovered thing they need to hit their projections appeared.

I wouldn't be surprised if some startups failed. But I can't think of any. Which ones are you referring to?

But AMEN on the touch-centric interface, in addition to the automation which I mentioned previously. It's cleverly executed stupidity. They also have a lot of quality control issues which isn't that surprising given that it's a new car company and they have to learn things the hard way. Building cars is hard. The really surprising thing is that Mercedes and BMW also have tons of QC problems in their luxury cars. New ideas, new design = new problems. That's why you get a warranty.

OXBALLS DOT COM
Sep 11, 2005

by FactsAreUseless
Young Orc

Ola posted:

I wouldn't be surprised if some startups failed. But I can't think of any. Which ones are you referring to?

But AMEN on the touch-centric interface, in addition to the automation which I mentioned previously. It's cleverly executed stupidity. They also have a lot of quality control issues which isn't that surprising given that it's a new car company and they have to learn things the hard way. Building cars is hard. The really surprising thing is that Mercedes and BMW also have tons of QC problems in their luxury cars. New ideas, new design = new problems. That's why you get a warranty.

Off the top of my head Envia, A123, and Ener1.

Also, a decent read for people interested in this area: http://www.amazon.com/The-Powerhouse-Inside-Invention-Battery/dp/0670025844

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Translation : I have no real argument please believe my objections are more worth listening to than the article that actually does quote sources and calculations.

That article doesn't actually show any of its calculations and almost all the cites are opinion cites or background info. My words written while on the toilet at work are actually about as reliable as that article, just more concise.

OXBALLS DOT COM fucked around with this message at 13:33 on Jun 25, 2015

bull3964
Nov 18, 2000

DO YOU HEAR THAT? THAT'S THE SOUND OF ME PATTING MYSELF ON THE BACK.


Michael Scott posted:

I live in a major city and off/on-peak pricing is not offered, it's just one price for the kWh.

Same here. There are a few pilot programs, but smart meter rollout isn't slated for another 3 years.

sanchez
Feb 26, 2003
We have it, but at 16.6/5.6 for peak/off peak vs 9.4c flat I'm not sure it'd be worth it. That 16.6 cent rate would be killer during the day in the summer with the home AC on, you're not allowed to have a second meter with time of use billing.

The Locator
Sep 12, 2004

Out here, everything hurts.





I am honestly surprised that peak rate plans aren't a thing everywhere. Bad assumption on my part.

Where I live (Phoenix AZ area) the rates are broken into Winter (November through April billing cycle) and Summer (May through October) for APS customers anyway.

Standard rate varies by usage on a tiered plan where the more you use the higher per kWh it is:
Winter - All .09417
Summer 1-400 kWh - .09687
Summer 401-800 kWh - .13817
Summer 801-3000 kWh - .16167
Summer 3001+ kWh - .17257

Peak / Off Peak rates:
Winter - .19847 / .06116
Summer - .24477 / .06118

Except for the hottest months, my solar panels generate more power than I use during peak times, so I only get on-peak power from the grid from June through September, and my credits accumulated during the winter more than offset this, so I actually never pay a single penny for on-peak power.

pun pundit
Nov 11, 2008

I feel the same way about the company bearing the same name.

I don't know if Tesla knew about this when they made their estimates on future battery costs, but it appears highly relevant that researchers claim to halve production cost on Li-Ion batteries. They've apparently already produced 10 000 batteries on assembly lines for testing.

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot

pun pundit posted:

I don't know if Tesla knew about this when they made their estimates on future battery costs, but it appears highly relevant that researchers claim to halve production cost on Li-Ion batteries. They've apparently already produced 10 000 batteries on assembly lines for testing.

Wow this seems like exciting news, and it's not bullshit coming from MIT. Though sometimes university news bureaus trump up research findings for obvious reasons, I think this could be legit.

Of course it takes some amount of time for any academic research to ooze into commercial activity, but with the attention on Li-Ion this might be a significant kick in the rear end for production, which would be awesome.

I'm not sure if Tesla knew about this specific research, but of course they were counting on advances like what we seem to have here.

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angryrobots
Mar 31, 2005

The Locator posted:

I am honestly surprised that peak rate plans aren't a thing everywhere. Bad assumption on my part.

Where I live (Phoenix AZ area) the rates are broken into Winter (November through April billing cycle) and Summer (May through October) for APS customers anyway.
Utilities in the desert states have more incentive to implement peak metering, with all the solar.

You have to think, utilities are profit driven, and even if peak metering (with its increased upfront cost and maintenance costs) makes good economic sense for them, the majority of consumers will not "get it". Seriously, how many times have I tried to explain to a member how their usage of electricity relates to their power bill. Many people seriously think we just make it up, and charge more in the coldest /hottest months.

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