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Communist Zombie
Nov 1, 2011

NEED TOILET PAPER posted:

And that brings us to 2012. Unlike previous referendums, which were pretty straightforward, this referendum was two-tiered. The first question asked simply whether the voter wanted to keep the current commonwealth system. The second asked what ought to replace the commonwealth.
2012
Q1: keep commonwealth?
Yes...46%
No...54%

Q2: Which non-commonwealth option do you prefer?
Statehood...61.16%
Free Association...33.34%
Independence...5.49%

IIRC Congress and Obama have already said that they don't plan to act on the 2012 referendum since there are some controversies surrounding it, and in any case they apparently feel that the vote for statehood was not overwhelming enough for them to begin the process. So our status isn't changing anytime soon.

The issue was, iirc, that one of the major parties in PR boycotted the election by submitting blank ballots, and if you include the blank ballots then no option in Q2 got over 50%. And I think they specifically left Q2 blank while answering Q1.

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ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
Vox's Max Fischer on why World War III is closer than it's been since Reagan left office.

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver
I, for one, do not relish the possibility of seeing how a nuclear war against Russia, even a theoretically limited nuclear engagement, would impact the release of arctic methane.

"Oh, hey, both sides used 'strategic' nuclear missiles on a few hardened positions, surprisingly little loss of life... why is the temperature 10 degrees higher worldwide?"

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
I've been saying it for awhile. The UNSC countries need to dig a grave for ISIL and we can bury our hatchets there.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

I like Vox, especially their piece that dismantled Seymour Hersh's conspiracy theory about the bin Laden operation, but my mind just reeled from this article at every turn. It's less that it sounds crazy so much as it's difficult to accept were it to be true.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice
Can't shovel every single employee into a "management" position and tell them to get hosed on overtime? I'm guessing the response will be to stop having employees and we see a truly astounding explosion in "contracting" employees being hired by TotallyNotUs Inc. A completely unrelated company that we never talk to because the paperwork proving they exist in Delaware is stored down in HR's office. Now sign this binding arbitration clause or you're fired for reasons totally not related to not signing it.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Tonight at midnight the Export Import Bank will lose the authority to extend loans.

There are likely more than 60 votes to extend its mandate in the Senate. Prospects in the House are less clear, with well-funded conservative opposition, but it won't be resolved today as the House is not in session.

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

This is freaking me out.

Goons familiar with this kind of thing, how's the quality of his analysis?

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Accretionist posted:

Goons familiar with this kind of thing, how's the quality of his analysis?

This is a completely ridiculous statement:

quote:

Europe today looks disturbingly similar to the Europe of just over 100 years ago, on the eve of World War I.

As is the idea of NATO-triggered nuclear war in 2015.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc

Fried Chicken posted:

New York Times really loving reaches in a pathetic tattempt to make this sound lke a bad thing


:ssh: wages don't work like that. And given that they employ the guy who did a ton of work on the stickiness of wages and how they are impacted by forces like this, I expect we will see some good stuff from Krug soon about this.


Anyways I look forward to HR running around with its hair on fire tomorrow trying to get a bunch of people reclassified to not qualify for this

quote:

Conservatives and business groups have bitterly opposed the idea, warning that it will cost jobs. The National Retail Federation, a trade group, has argued that expanded overtime will “add to employers’ costs, undermine customer service, hinder productivity, generate more litigation opportunities for trial lawyers and ultimately harm job creation.”

One of those might be true, not so sure on the other four....

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Sir Tonk posted:

From what I've heard, Obama is changing one of the main loopholes that companies have been using to say that almost everyone is exempt. If you're in charge of like two or three people, then you're considered management and exempt. Either Obama or the DOL head has said that they're looking to push that number to five, at least, in response to companies just saying that everyone is an assistant manager.

Actually it is even better than that:

"Nonetheless, unofficial pronouncements (including the Secretary of Labor’s remarks before the International Association of Firefighters on March 18, 2014) have repeatedly stressed the DOL’s position that the current regulations result in too many employees falling under the exemptions, particularly retail managers who spend a large portion of their time performing non-exempt duties. Accordingly, there is speculation that the DOL may eliminate the “concurrent duties” provision of 29 CFR 541.106, which provides that simultaneously performing both exempt and nonexempt duties will not automatically disqualify an otherwise exempt employee from the executive exemption. There is also speculation that the regulations may impose a set percentage cap on the amount of time an exempt employee may spend on non-exempt duties, similar to exemption provisions under some state laws (such as California and Connecticut) and to some provisions of the pre-2004 FLSA regulations."

The major problem right now is that employers will call someone a Manager but their work will consist of 5% managing and 95% doing the same poo poo the hourly workers are doing. Retail and fast food places are the worst offenders because you always see someone with "Shift Manager" on their tag restocking or running the register. The various business groups in that sector are freaking out and creating hillarious infographics about how the manager isn't actually doing hourly work but instead is "leading by example" or some bullshit:



:qq:

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc

Theris posted:

I wonder in how many cases this will be done with a simple "Congratulations, you're getting a raise! (to $50,401)" Like companies cutting people's hours just enough to avoid tripping the ACA 30 hour rule.

And keep in mind that just because you make over the threshold, you still need to qualify as exempt. Most lovely companies will just put you down as exempt, but it's up to them to explain why your positions is exempt and you can always report it to the DOL (or just ask them anonymously if you don't want to get hosed with by your employer).

If I had to guess, I'd say that at least half of the exempt workers in the US shouldn't be exempt. Hell, it's probably closer to 75%. And it doesn't help that most Americans think that once you're getting paid salary, you're automatically exempt. Everything I heard growing up was that you just work more than forty hours every so often when you're salary and that's how it is.

edit


There's so many amazing articles on this (for all the wrong reasons).

Is Forcing Businesses to Pay Overtime to More Workers Really a Brilliant Idea? No Frigging Way.

There was also talk of attached the pay threshold to inflation, not sure if that is going to end up in the eventual rules. I sure as hell hope it does. If the DOL does this right, we might be getting the most effective stimulus plan the feds could implement. Median income going up like $5k, more jobs where companies don't want to raise pay, you name it.

Sir Tonk fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Jun 30, 2015

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

gradenko_2000 posted:

I like Vox, especially their piece that dismantled Seymour Hersh's conspiracy theory about the bin Laden operation, but my mind just reeled from this article at every turn. It's less that it sounds crazy so much as it's difficult to accept were it to be true.

All made sense to me. Would certainly be easier to accept that I'm an idiot and got gulled, but overall it seemed consistent with the other things I've read about modern Russia.

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Accretionist posted:

This is freaking me out.

Goons familiar with this kind of thing, how's the quality of his analysis?

It's pretty scaremongery. It's like a reverse Cassandra where it demands you bias towards "poo poo, things are like before WW1" so that if you don't think a war is brewing you're a rube. It's a good rhetorical device. I can't help but feel that it's like good old Kremlinology where incidents are strung together in an attempt to create an appropriately scary big picture. E.g. the 900 000 letters sent by the Finnish Defence Forces were in the works way before little green men in Ukraine happened. There have also been "buzzings" by Russian planes in Baltic and Scandinavian airspace before, although the frequency has slightly increased.

I think the best point is the fact that going Article 5 on a hybrid war will be very tricky and the last thing you want in a high pressure situation. It's also beyond contention that Russia's actions in Ukraine have introduced instability. But it seems silly to preach that war in Europe is perceived as unthinkable, when there's a war going on right now.

Edit: You could write a book on how much things are not like pre-WW1 right now. It's a useless analytical tool. But a great rhetorical device.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc

Antti posted:

Edit: You could write a book on how much things are not like pre-WW1 right now. It's a useless analytical tool. But a great rhetorical device.

But what if the Habsburgs took over again?

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

I guess Ted Cruz thinks the SCOTUS ruling only legalized gay marriage for Jim Obergefell.

quote:

“Those who are not parties to the suit are not bound by it… The parties to a case cannot ignore a direct judicial order, but it does not mean that those who are not parties to a case are bound by a judicial order.”

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Ted Cruz: Super Genius Lawyer.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug
Are most of the arguments in favor of laws forcing overtime pay based on job exploitation and mental health and things like that, or based on the idea that beyond a certain number of hours a day (maybe six?), most people's work just gets really inefficient?

edit: especially relevant since I just moved back to Japan, land of spending long hours in the office but still getting surprisingly little done.

Samurai Sanders fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Jun 30, 2015

The Warszawa
Jun 6, 2005

Look at me. Look at me.

I am the captain now.

He's not actually wrong.

It's just that entities are expected to conform their conduct instead of each individual issuer being taken to court to get an order for them, and it'll make the rocket docket look like financial crash litigation for how quick they get smacked around.

Basically, he's right that no one who isn't a party is bound by the specific order issued in Obergefell, but they are bound by the Constitution and guess what the settled law on that issue is...

Relentlessboredomm
Oct 15, 2006

It's Sic Semper Tyrannis. You said, "Ever faithful terrible lizard."

Samurai Sanders posted:

Are most of the arguments in favor of laws forcing overtime pay based on job exploitation and mental health and things like that, or based on the idea that beyond a certain number of hours a day (maybe six?), most people's work just gets really inefficient?


All of those things are true so does it matter? They seem based on the exploitation of workers.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

So by this logic, Citizens United v. FEC...only applied to Citizens United.

The Warszawa
Jun 6, 2005

Look at me. Look at me.

I am the captain now.

Alter Ego posted:

So by this logic, Citizens United v. FEC...only applied to Citizens United.

No, it also applied to the FEC, which was the enforcing entity of the invalidated provision so that doesn't really work.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Aerox posted:

If you would like to see the trucks crash it's at the end of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHElzaKkmQY

Wow.

quote:

LucchiniSW 9 hours ago
It's funny because the confederate flag can very easily be compared to the flag which Nazi Germany used.

William B 1 hour ago
+Mark Heiden NO THEY WERE NOT GODDAMMIT, LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING THE CONFEDERATE FLAG IS NOTHING TO DO WITH SLAVERY, IT'S ALL ABOUT SOUTHERN PRIDE & SOUTHERN HERITAGE & NOT HATE GET A loving EDUCATION, NOW YES THE KKK GIVE IT A BAD NAME, BUT IT'S GOT NOTHING TO DO WITH HATE , SLAVERY OR RACISM , JUST LIKE THE NAZI FLAG , IT'S NOT THE FLAGS FAULT IT'S THE PEOPLE WHO CARRIED IT & WHAT THEY STOOD FOR

Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



Whenever someone starts harping about how the confederate flag is about state's rights, I've started to agree with them and add "the flag is about a state's right to secede from the union and betray its own country since they're mad they can't have slaves anymore".

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Interesting, interesting... so it is just like the Nazi flag after all?

Wow indeed, hahah.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

The poor, misunderstood Nazi flag.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

zoux posted:

The poor, misunderstood Nazi flag.

Do these people know that you can't actually fly the Nazi flag in Germany either, and haven't been able to for decades?

Vienna Circlejerk
Jan 28, 2003

The great science sausage party!

NEED TOILET PAPER posted:

Oh the monkeys are still around. And I'll have you know they're rhesus monkeys in addition to patas monkeys. We are a diverse little island here good sir.

I thought the monkeys had been eradicated recently by a hunting program. I remember PETA being up in arms over it, and that it had been considered a success. I'm both amused (because monkeys) and disappointed (because crops and disease) by this monkey business.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

gradenko_2000 posted:

Do these people know that you can't actually fly the Nazi flag in Germany either, and haven't been able to for decades?

That seems like a perfectly fair policy.

Gin and Juche
Apr 3, 2008

The Highest Judge of Paradise
Shiki Eiki
YAMAXANADU

gradenko_2000 posted:

Do these people know that you can't actually fly the Nazi flag in Germany either, and haven't been able to for decades?

Of course you can't fly it in Germany, they're Nazis.

Job Truniht
Nov 7, 2012

MY POSTS ARE REAL RETARDED, SIR

Joementum posted:

This is a completely ridiculous statement:


I don't think it was meant to be interpreted literally. He's consistent about referring to poorly understood alliance obligations in Europe- he doesn't literally mean Italy, German, and Austria are about to enter a war with France, GB, and Russia. What is sort of true is that any offensive action taken against Finland, Estonia, or Latvia would be enough to trigger a global conflict. Those alliances didn't exist 30 years ago.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
It was explained to me that if Texas refuses licenses, each refused license requires a separate lawsuit, etc. In theory, correct: every violation of settled law is a new thing. But if Texas decided to start, I don't know, arresting people without probable cause... wait, no. Er.

... well, poo poo.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Warcabbit posted:

It was explained to me that if Texas refuses licenses, each refused license requires a separate lawsuit, etc.

Sounds like a great way to piss off 1/3 of the government. Texas! Yeehaw!

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!
SCOTUS granted review of 5 cases, Missouri abortion was not one of them but a challenge to pubic sector unions was, not a lot of discussion on the twitters I follow past that so I guess the rest was boring stuff?

suburban virgin
Jul 26, 2007
Highly qualified lurker.

Antti posted:

Edit: You could write a book on how much things are not like pre-WW1 right now. It's a useless analytical tool. But a great rhetorical device.

The pre-WW1 stuff was, to me, the least important bit of the article. Throw out that whole line as a needless comparison (which, to be fair, it certainly is) and concentrate more on the meat of Russian nuclear rearmament and brinksmanship and it becomes a lot more frightening. The assassination of some minor noble in central Europe isn't going to lead to four years of trench warfare, but the scenario he actually lays out is clear and possible. We've seen Putin is willing to gamble on the West being too overstretched and fatigued to commit to defending what he sees as Russian imperial holdings, he just needs to make one more successful play for a baltic state and he'll reveal NATO to be completely toothless. So he might just make the attempt, which means NATO would have to respond, which means actual troops moving around on the Russian border, which leads us down the road of artillery strike and counter airstrike and so on until Russia deploys their darkly hilarious idea of a "de-escalating" tactical nuclear bomb on a US tank division....

So not WW1 at all. Much, much worse than WW1.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
The truly scary part is a Russian tank division speeding west across a radioactive wasteland. Have you seem those fuckers drive?

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!
The Fat Man is in the race. That's what, 16? Or were we already counting him?

Happy Noodle Boy
Jul 3, 2002


Fried Chicken posted:

The Fat Man is in the race. That's what, 16? Or were we already counting him?

Safe to say everyone including all the posters in this thread are running.

Kasich announces on the 21st.

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!
Iran intern deal/talks just got extended to the 7th

That short an extension suggests a deal is close to me, but I'm just a guy in the Internet

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Luigi Thirty
Apr 30, 2006

Emergency confection port.

I officially announce my candidacy for the Republican Party's presidential nomination.

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