|
Why not? If we're writing fanfics, go all in, I say.
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 00:53
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 22:16 |
|
|
Warcabbit posted:So, here's the question. If, by some wild chance, Bernie wins the primary, could he win the White House? Can you give examples of any of these things? Cause outside the Bernmentum crowd, he looks and talks like everyone's Geography teacher from highschool, who decided to commute through a wind tunnel today.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 00:54
|
|
|
Warcabbit posted:So, here's the question. If, by some wild chance, Bernie wins the primary, could he win the White House?
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 00:56
|
|
|
Warcabbit posted:So, here's the question. If, by some wild chance, Bernie wins the primary, could he win the White House? Does Sheppard survive in your fanfic?
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 01:11
|
|
|
Warcabbit posted:So, here's the question. If, by some wild chance, Bernie wins the primary, could he win the White House? I don't see why not, Clinton is a much more formidable opponent than any of the Republicans, so anyone who could beat her has got a pretty good shot at the whole drat shooting match. Also, speaking of hit pieces on dead presidents, I've always loved this obituary for Ford , very reminiscent of Thompson's Nixon obit. quote:The only thing he had to do to come out of the presidency with a legacy was not pardon Richard Nixon. It took Ford a month to gently caress that up, and he dared to announce, "Our long national nightmare is over." ... Our long national nightmare didn't end with Ford. It began with him.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 01:34
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:Can you give examples of any of these things? Cause outside the Bernmentum crowd, he looks and talks like everyone's Geography teacher from highschool, who decided to commute through a wind tunnel today. Okay, that's mildly hilarious, but I was referring to the video where he engages with the press up there. He would have the comparative advantage of all the Republican campaigns' oppo research being focused on Clinton, they'd be totally wrongfooted. Do I think this can happen? Not really, but he's doing okay, so it's worth asking what the results are.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 01:39
|
|
|
Skwirl posted:
Gerald goddamned Ford was also challenged by the simple task of remaining upright on his own two feet, a fact that provided an endless supply of fodder to Chevy Chase on SNL during his impersonations https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk8R4PoR9II. A fitting metaphor, you had one job, MR. President, and you blew it.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 01:53
|
|
|
Since we're sharing our favorite scathing presidential obituaries, let us not forget Tim Kreider's farewell to Ronnie Reagan.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:02
|
|
|
I would say Bernie vs. Generic Republican would be a narrow win to the latter, but we will probably get someone worse than Generic Republican. I do think his margin would be thinner than Hillary's, probably considerably so even in a best-case scenario.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:12
|
|
|
Warcabbit posted:So, here's the question. If, by some wild chance, Bernie wins the primary, could he win the White House? As much as I dislike Hillary, I know that she is easily the strongest dog in the race just because of name recognition and voter laziness. So if Bernie can beat her, he can certainly beat whichever shmuck the republican party hacks up. And his numbers keep climbing, both in supporters and money. Publicly available information (for what little that's worth in campaign finance) shows him as having raised more total money than any individual Republican nominee thus far, and it isn't slowing. Even if he doesn't win, a lot of people will be really happy with how much momentum his campaign has generated and what that could mean for future elections. Fajita Queen fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Jul 6, 2015 |
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:19
|
|
|
The Shortest Path posted:As much as I dislike Hillary, I know that she is easily the strongest dog in the race just because of name recognition and voter laziness. So if Bernie can beat her, he can certainly beat whichever shmuck the republican party hacks up. Likewise if I announce tomorrow and beat Hillary, I've got a good shot at beating the GOP nominee.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:21
|
|
|
Assuming Bernie beats Hillary on his own merits rather than Hillary having some campaign-sinking gaffe or scandal, but then again if Hillary has something waiting in the wings bad enough to bring her down in the Democratic primary of all places it'd destroy her in the general too, so it'd be better for that to come out then rather than afterward. But yeah, if Bernie beats Hillary in her prime then he's got a fair shot in the general, just like Obama did. A lot really depends on just who the Republicans cough up. It should be no surprise that half the race has a meaningful impact on the race as a whole, but there's basically a whole different election that could come out of every possible option. Whether any of those elections see the Republican candidate in with a shot, well...
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:24
|
|
|
Klaus88 posted:Gerald goddamned Ford was also challenged by the simple task of remaining upright on his own two feet, a fact that provided an endless supply of fodder to Chevy Chase on SNL during his impersonations Ford at least had the magnanimity of spirit to take the jokes in stride. He even allowed Ron Nessen, his press secretary, to appear on the show!
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:24
|
|
|
We talk about how much of a joke the Republican lineup is, but we're all gonna be eating poo poo when the planets align and Trump steamrolls the primary and wins a 60% popular vote in the general. 
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:27
|
|
|
The only way that I can see Bernie winning the nomination is if Hillary has some incapacitating health scare very early in the primary process, and he's older than her so something like that would be more likely to happen to him.
|
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:28
|
|
|
Strategic edit
JT Jag fucked around with this message at 06:54 on Dec 3, 2015 |
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:31
|
|
|
Absurd Alhazred posted:Ford at least had the magnanimity of spirit to take the jokes in stride. He even allowed Ron Nessen, his press secretary, to appear on the show! Also he enjoyed inviting people over to watch football and have nachos and beer.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 02:51
|
|
|
http://nypost.com/2015/07/02/support-for-bernie-sanders-skyrockets-in-iowa-poll Okay, then. Go Bernie. I hope that milquetoast bastard wins. Warcabbit posted:So, here's the question. If, by some wild chance, Bernie wins the primary, could he win the White House? Yes. Come on, Trump? Chevy Cruz? Bush 3.0?
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:01
|
|
|
Aw poo poo, Bernie's within 20 points of Hillary.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:06
|
|
|
MonsieurChoc posted:Reagan was a monster and we should always remember that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDRnUGdIhCY
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:09
|
|
|
FAUXTON posted:Aw poo poo, Bernie's within 20 points of Hillary. He just doubled his polls in IOWA. That poo poo really matters. (I just said this aloud. Wow, that sounds sarcastic to the political layman.) I mean it, though. This is incredible news for his campaign. I think he really has a chance.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:13
|
|
|
I realize I'm getting WAY ahead of things here, but I'm curious which states all of you would consider to be "swing states" this time around. I've been playing around with the electoral map on good ol' 270 To Win and I'm having trouble coming up with a plausible scenario where the blue team's starting line is any lower than about 240 electoral votes. More realistic scenarios tend to hand the victory to the Dems even before putting big states like Ohio and Florida in one column or the other. This is about as generous as I can be about putting states in the Swing category:  Any differing opinions on states to include or leave out of the "swing" category?
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:35
|
|
|
Powered Descent posted:I realize I'm getting WAY ahead of things here, but I'm curious which states all of you would consider to be "swing states" this time around. NH is swing, PA is debatably swing. MI might still split votes like ME and NE, and ME has one vote that I think is a weak Dem, and could theoretically swing, if I recall correctly.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:37
|
|
|
Powered Descent posted:Any differing opinions on states to include or leave out of the "swing" category? e: Also, I posted this a few weeks ago, but here's some stats on how the changing demographics (mostly de-whitening) of swing states will change vote margins between 2012 and 2016.  It'll take some real screw-ups on the part of Team D to put any of the Obama 2012 states into play in 2016. FMguru fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Jul 6, 2015 |
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:38
|
|
|
Agrajag posted:Does Sheppard survive in your fanfic? Bernie gets Gman to return Shepard to serve as SecDef. All education efforts are directed toward STEM and democratic socialism becomes a viable alternative to globalization in its present form. Mc Do Well fucked around with this message at 04:07 on Jul 6, 2015 |
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 03:42
|
|
|
If you like Bernie, why would you want him to be President?
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:00
|
|
|
Chantilly Say posted:If you like Bernie, why would you want him to be President? Because the President can do anything if he wills it hard enough.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:00
|
|
|
Do people seriously think there are Clinton voters who would vote any republican over Bernie? They'll pull the lever for the D, or they'll get their Christian theocracy Gilead World War III with Iran, as promised 
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:01
|
|
|
Defenestration posted:Do people seriously think there are Clinton voters who would vote any republican over Bernie? They'll pull the lever for the D, or they'll get their Christian theocracy Gilead World War III with Iran, as promised No, but people think there are Clinton voters who would rather not make the effort to vote than vote for Bernie. It's pretty well understood at this point that turnout is way more important than persuasion when it comes to winning elections.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:05
|
|
|
computer parts posted:Because the President can do anything if he wills it hard enough. Bernie doesn't have the needed experience to wish on the Presidential Monkey Paw. Hillary on the other hand has seen how it works first hand. Vote Hillary, she's already prepared her intricately worded wishes. Preemptive apologies to Micronesia, your sacrifice will not be in vain.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:11
|
|
|
FMguru posted:I'd put NH in the possibly-swing beige category. If Bush/Walker/Rubio/whoever is running strong enough to make it a close race, then NH is almost certainly in play. This assumes that vote percentages by demographic are going to remain static as well.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:14
|
|
|
Powered Descent posted:I realize I'm getting WAY ahead of things here, but I'm curious which states all of you would consider to be "swing states" this time around. I don't consider Wisconsin to be a swing state. I think it is comfortably blue in the presidential elections. I wouldn't be so worried about Colorado or Nevada any more, but those are not as comfortable. New Hampshire is always an interesting beast.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:21
|
|
|
Idiot Kicker posted:I don't consider Wisconsin to be a swing state. I think it is comfortably blue in the presidential elections. I wouldn't be so worried about Colorado or Nevada any more, but those are not as comfortable. New Hampshire is always an interesting beast.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:24
|
|
|
JT Jag posted:Wisconsin is a swing state if Walker's the nominee. Why? His unfavorables are getting way worse in Wisconsin the longer he pushes the Koch agenda through for national tea party cred.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:27
|
|
|
Idiot Kicker posted:I don't consider Wisconsin to be a swing state. I think it is comfortably blue in the presidential elections. I wouldn't be so worried about Colorado or Nevada any more, but those are not as comfortable. New Hampshire is always an interesting beast. Seriously. Look at the Obama 2012 map and find 64 in-play EVs for the Republicans to even have a chance of sniffing 270. It's really hard!
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:28
|
|
|
gently caress You And Diebold posted:Why? His unfavorables are getting way worse in Wisconsin the longer he pushes the Koch agenda through for national tea party cred.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:31
|
|
|
JT Jag posted:He didn't get recalled, he won re-election in 2014. It makes complete sense for Wisconsin to say gently caress him, but they haven't. He has yet to face re-election during a presidential year election. I imagine he won't/wouldn't fare so well in those circumstances with a half-decent opponent
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:33
|
|
|
FMguru posted:e: Also, I posted this a few weeks ago, but here's some stats on how the changing demographics (mostly de-whitening) of swing states will change vote margins between 2012 and 2016. Going by the projected numbers in that table, only four states are decided by less than 5 percentage points: Colorado, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. This easily gives the blue team the final victory, 276-191, before those four states are even decided. Opening up the "swing" category to seven points, there are still only nine states in play: Arizona(!), Colorado, Florida, Georgia(!!), Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. This gives the blue team a starting line of 233 and the red team 164. Of course, this table may or may not be accurate, and there is still an eternity of time for one candidate or another to decide to eat a live puppy on the six o'clock news. Still... I knew the Republicans were facing an uphill demographic battle, but... wow. I, for one, welcome our new President Hillary overlord.  FMguru posted:I think what Powered Descent was showing is how generous you have to be with your definitions of "swing" and "in play" to not give the Democrat 270 or more EVs from the outset. Yup, pretty much this. e: Hey yeah, I apparently can't count states. Give me a break, I'm not running for president or anything. Powered Descent fucked around with this message at 04:49 on Jul 6, 2015 |
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:37
|
|
|
Lotka Volterra posted:He has yet to face re-election during a presidential year election. I imagine he won't/wouldn't fare so well in those circumstances with a half-decent opponent
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:37
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 22:16 |
|
|
FMguru posted:I think what Powered Descent was showing is how generous you have to be with your definitions of "swing" and "in play" to not give the Democrat 270 or more EVs from the outset. They pretty much need to run the table for FL-OH-PA, and that's insane.
|
|
#
?
Jul 6, 2015 04:40
|
|
