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The Nastier Nate posted:My theory, which someone who lives in the district could give input on, is that there is no universe where Eric Cantor, mantle of the tea party lost his primary for not being conservative enough. I think he lost because he embodied everything that people hate about Washington. Massive wall street connections, ladder climber, incredibly smug. He was constantly seen eating at expensive steak houses drinking $200 wine. Between that and the fact that VA has an open primary (so some amount of dems voted against him in his primary) I assumed his constituency was sick of him. He wasn't even in his district on election day, but rather in Washington. You can be the most conservative member of the house in your R+25 district, but as soon as you start looking like you don't care about your voters, they will find an equally conservative candidate to replace you with. A whole lot of us dems voted for Dave Brat in the Republican primary (because here in VA you can vote in either primary just not both). There were organized efforts to get democrats out for Brat, I know a few dozen people that did this, and my understanding is that some local civic associations actually organized transportation and post-vote entertainment at a community center in one of the urban parts of the district (where I live). Cantor out-spent Bart by 40:1. We tried to talk to the state democrats about this prior to the primary but no one would even respond. We were hoping if we got the state party involved they could put someone up that could have a reasonable chance at beating Bart, but that never happened. Instead we got Jack Trammell a few days before the primary, who is also a professor at the same school as Bart (Randolph Macon), and entirely unprepared for a campaign. Oh well, Cantor earns a few Ms a year at Sun Trust or some bank now. Good for him I guess.
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Jul 6, 2015 14:02
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Seriously with how many actual socialists he bugs by waving the socialist banner around while taking attention away from, ya know, actual socialist groups I can't imagine there's a ton of broad appeal there as 'one of us who has a chance'. Just say progressive, it was our word before it became something the right sneered at, you want a movement make a movement to take back the progressive label, ya know, the label that gave us basic rights for workers and rivers that aren't on fire? It's a wide banner to wave that hits tons of groups without really needing to fall into a rigid party line and it's not something the right has been trying to tell stupid people is basically a neo-nazi platform. Are we going to get a left-equivalent acronym for RINO, Socialist In Name Only? SINO? Oh. That works surprisingly well.
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Jul 6, 2015 14:18
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Numerical Anxiety posted:Are we going to get a left-equivalent acronym for RINO, Socialist In Name Only? SINO? 
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Jul 6, 2015 14:23
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Feral_Shofixti posted:I started this on my tablet, then realized it was going to be a bit of an effort post and moved to my desktop, so apologies if grammar is out of whack. Sup fellower Loudouner (I no longer live there but grew up in Western Loudoun)  I suspect you are correct; Obama won VA by 6.3% in 2008 and 3.88% in 2012 - both reasonably close to his margins in the election overall. Here's to hoping that Hillary campaigns here with McAuliffe a lot, because the Governor is actually pretty fun to watch speak and has been very good on certain important issues. It will be interesting to see if the GOP can nominate reasonable candidates for statewide office in 2017 or if we'll get another EW Jackson (I am betting the latter).
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Jul 6, 2015 14:32
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She was up in Fairfax the week before last. Price for admission was surprisingly low too.
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Jul 6, 2015 14:37
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I think about this a lot these days: doesn't the last decade of electing yahoos like the Palins, Cruz's, Pauls, Bachmanns, Ernsts etc. mean that there is no longer even a small pool of GOP officeholders who appear in any way serious or statesmanlike, such that the (still a majority I think) Americans who don't inject Fox News intravenously 24/7 could actually envision them as President of the country? There used to be people like Dick Lugar, Bob Dole, and even McCain kind of fit the bill although he really helped get this poo poo rolling with the Palin pick. Now the only people who seem remotely plausible as a President in the GOP have been out of office for a decade or more.
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Jul 6, 2015 15:03
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Zwabu posted:I think about this a lot these days: doesn't the last decade of electing yahoos like the Palins, Cruz's, Pauls, Bachmanns, Ernsts etc. mean that there is no longer even a small pool of GOP officeholders who appear in any way serious or statesmanlike, such that the (still a majority I think) Americans who don't inject Fox News intravenously 24/7 could actually envision them as President of the country? There are plenty of more moderate republicans, especially in blueish states. They just aren't as interesting to watch. "Sarah Palin says some stupid poo poo" makes for better news ratings than "Pat Toomey suggests reasonable background checks for guns" or "Susana Martinez continues to not be crazy."
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Jul 6, 2015 15:13
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A Bag of Milk posted:Republicans could win... Romney+OH+FL+IA+NH This gives them 263 EVs. The GOP needs Virginia (or Colorado, etc).
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Jul 6, 2015 15:15
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The Nastier Nate posted:There are plenty of more moderate republicans, especially in blueish states. They just aren't as interesting to watch. "Sarah Palin says some stupid poo poo" makes for better news ratings than "Pat Toomey suggests reasonable background checks for guns" or "Susana Martinez continues to not be crazy." It's not that so much as people are going to pay more attention to whoever the right is putting up as their face. Yes moderate Republicans exist but they're getting shoved off to the side by the current batch of clowns trying to prove who has the most awful opinions. Seriously, the party is a loving mess and its voters have been showing their true colors. When you have somebody like Trump actually polling as possibly, maybe viable while he vomits pure, unfiltered racism all over everything your party has problems.
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Jul 6, 2015 15:26
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Breitbart primary poll results http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/06/ted-cruz-scott-walker-battle-to-top-breitbart-primary/ 55,000 votes 
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Jul 6, 2015 15:26
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 Demon Sheep in third?
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Jul 6, 2015 15:49
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Joementum posted:Nope. The sorting works out that any candidate getting 50%+ of the popular vote is nearly always going to win enough states to also carry the EC. The Republicans have a small disadvantage due to the makeup of the states they'd need to carry, but would still win the EC with ~51.5% of the vote, approximately what Obama received in 2012. Obama beat Romney by 4-5 points. I would argue that that is a "decisive" win in modern American presidential elections. If Hillary can lose 51-49 and still win the EC, that's a massive advantage. Hence me saying that the Republican can't win a squeaker.
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Jul 6, 2015 15:58
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Cigar Aficionado posted:Obama beat Romney by 4-5 points. I would argue that that is a "decisive" win in modern American presidential elections. If Hillary can lose 51-49 and still win the EC, that's a massive advantage. Hence me saying that the Republican can't win a squeaker. That assumes the right can even take 51% of the vote. That isn't going to be easy if they keep riding the train to crazy town.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:01
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don Jaime posted:Sanders has had 25 years to bend the Vermont Democratic Party to his will, or try to build his own organization from disaffected leftists. He's never bothered. If a lasting movement emerges out of this campaign, it will have little to do with him personally. Bernie likes being an independent and doesn't want the label of being associated with a particular party. Obviously going for the democratic nomination he's putting that aside for pragmatic reasons. He's also associated pretty strongly with the Vermont Progressive Party, more so recently.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:04
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Is it just me or is nothing sticking to Clinton (emails, Clinton cash, Benghazi) and sinking her campaign Granted the GOP probably has not run all they supposedly "have" on her
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Jul 6, 2015 16:06
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I think Bernie's candidacy is important to the party and its good for Hillary to have to put up with token opposition; I don't think he can effectively maintain momentum and win a contest against the DNC/Hillary.Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Is it just me or is nothing sticking to Clinton (emails, Clinton cash, Benghazi) and sinking her campaign Basically the people paying attention to this poo poo already made up their minds, and most of the people who aren't paying attention now, don't really care.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:07
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Is it just me or is nothing sticking to Clinton (emails, Clinton cash, Benghazi) and sinking her campaign Unsurprisingly, these are having little effect on her popularity among Democrats or her unpopularity among Republicans and anyone who isn't a strong partisan is not following the Presidential campaign in July 2015.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:09
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Is it just me or is nothing sticking to Clinton (emails, Clinton cash, Benghazi) and sinking her campaign Hillary hit scandal saturation a while ago. The main demographic for the GOP's hate parade is old white people, and most of them already put up with eight years of screeching about Hillary when her husband was in office. Even if they find something damning on her, it's all just going to sound like a rerun to most people.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:09
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There's not going to be a single thing inside those emails that's going to be a smoking gun. Note that they're pivoted away from BENGHAZI to "look! Hillary is reponsible for the failed state in Libya! why no we weren't cheer leading her on this at the time either"
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Jul 6, 2015 16:11
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I think the GOP is fine being in the wilderness when it comes to electing a president as long as they keep their chokehold on local statehouses, governorships, and the House. Edit: it also allows them to scream "TYRANNY!!" when a democratic president uses his powers to get things done because of the inaction of congress. Demon Of The Fall fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Jul 6, 2015 |
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Jul 6, 2015 16:14
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Demon Of The Fall posted:I think the GOP is fine being in the wilderness when it comes to electing a president as long as they keep their chokehold on local statehouses, governorships, and the House. Eh. This allows them to basically stymie democratic agendas and ruin state governments -- but structurally, its a losing game so long as they don't hold the presidency and remain beholden to policy views that are non-starters with younger voters and the increasing immigrant population. Basically one of the reasons Bush was so successful is he genuinely engaged minority voters -- particularly Hispanics. You're not going to see that from anyone in this field -- Rubio and Bush certainly had the chops to do it, but both have more or less walked away from the policies that could have engaged those voters.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:17
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The attacks on Hillary switched to her being elitist and a harpy for keeping journalists who just want to ask her questions corralled like animals. It is I the GOP caring about the drive-by media!!
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Jul 6, 2015 16:17
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Here's a video of Mike Huckabee dressed up as Cher singing I Got You Babe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lOtCfkRnHI
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Jul 6, 2015 16:21
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Oxxidation posted:Hillary hit scandal saturation a while ago. The main demographic for the GOP's hate parade is old white people, and most of them already put up with eight years of screeching about Hillary when her husband was in office. Even if they find something damning on her, it's all just going to sound like a rerun to most people. This is practically her golden ticket to victory. The GOP has basically cried wolf so many times that nobody gives a flying gently caress what they say unless they're already made their electoral decision. This assumes nobody is going to react negatively against the GOP for the sheer annoyance of seeing Yet Another Benghazi Panel or More Shrieking About Those loving Boring Emails About How Fax Machines Work.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:22
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Red Warrior posted:Bernie likes being an independent and doesn't want the label of being associated with a particular party. Obviously going for the democratic nomination he's putting that aside for pragmatic reasons. He's also associated pretty strongly with the Vermont Progressive Party, more so recently. It still looks weird to be an asocial socialist. Is there a reason he hasn't ever just joined the VPP? Some weird arcane rule that would screw up his electibility in Vermont?
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Jul 6, 2015 16:23
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Joementum posted:Here's a video of Mike Huckabee dressed up as Cher singing I Got You Babe: Is there a darknet site you get these from?
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Jul 6, 2015 16:25
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He just doesn't want to join a party.Joementum posted:Presidential candidates who did not tweet a congratulations to US Women's National Team last night: Chafee, Sanders, Santorum, Trump, Webb. Weird, since international soccer uses the metric system.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:27
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Joementum posted:Here's a video of Mike Huckabee dressed up as Cher singing I Got You Babe: I wish there were a way to pray to the trickster gods to have them replace each and every one of his "free" DVDs with a copy of this.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:29
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Joementum posted:Here's a video of Mike Huckabee dressed up as Cher singing I Got You Babe: I often feel like Huckabee gets dangerously close to being a self-aware clown, it's really a shame he is a terrible person.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:30
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don Jaime posted:It still looks weird to be an asocial socialist. Is there a reason he hasn't ever just joined the VPP? Some weird arcane rule that would screw up his electibility in Vermont? The VPP used to be considered a little more fringe I believe, at this point he is just more comfortable with the independent designation. In recent years there's definitely been more crossover in staff between his people and the VPP, and more mutual support.
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Jul 6, 2015 16:31
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Seriously with how many actual socialists he bugs by waving the socialist banner around while taking attention away from, ya know, actual socialist groups I can't imagine there's a ton of broad appeal there as 'one of us who has a chance'. Just say progressive, it was our word before it became something the right sneered at, you want a movement make a movement to take back the progressive label, ya know, the label that gave us basic rights for workers and rivers that aren't on fire? It's a wide banner to wave that hits tons of groups without really needing to fall into a rigid party line and it's not something the right has been trying to tell stupid people is basically a neo-nazi platform. That's the thing though, he doesn't just run as a Socialist. He's a Scandinavian style Democratic Socialist, which is a different thing entirely. He's not trying to mislead people and he sure as hell isn't trying to steal the Socialist label.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:03
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The Intercept ran a nice piece on Bernie's contributions to the PPACA today.quote:Over the years, Sanders has tucked away funding for health centers in appropriation bills signed by George W. Bush, into Barack Obama’s stimulus program, and through the earmarking process. But his biggest achievement came in 2010 through the Affordable Care Act. In a series of high-stakes legislative maneuvers, Sanders struck a deal to include $11 billion for health clinics in the law.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:15
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Hope this hasn't been posted Real winner here
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Jul 6, 2015 17:23
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The hope that Sanders inspires something bigger organizationally should be pretty low. Even if he "inspires" someone to run later, they'll be doing poo poo-all to rebuild the party necessary to create a legislative bloc and agenda. This is a man who won't even join the Democratic Party. Why is anyone expecting him to help them in any way? Sanders isn't a sub for Warren. He's this year's Nader.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:27
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De Nomolos posted:The hope that Sanders inspires something bigger organizationally should be pretty low. Even if he "inspires" someone to run later, they'll be doing poo poo-all to rebuild the party necessary to create a legislative bloc and agenda. This is a man who won't even join the Democratic Party. Why is anyone expecting him to help them in any way? lol and/or 'source your quotes'
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Jul 6, 2015 17:29
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De Nomolos posted:The hope that Sanders inspires something bigger organizationally should be pretty low. Even if he "inspires" someone to run later, they'll be doing poo poo-all to rebuild the party necessary to create a legislative bloc and agenda. This is a man who won't even join the Democratic Party. Why is anyone expecting him to help them in any way? I voted for Nader in 2004  A lot of people got mad at me for "throwing away" my vote.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:29
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Scott Walker's unfavorables rising in yet another area.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:30
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Iron Crowned posted:I voted for Nader in 2004 I did too, but I live in Kentucky, so lol.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:39
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Iron Crowned posted:I voted for Nader in 2004 If you lived in a swing state then gently caress you.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:45
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Anyone who voted for Nader in 2000 or 2004 should be waterboarded. And if you voted for him in NH or FL: drone strikes on your family's weddings until the government gets you.
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Jul 6, 2015 17:46
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