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Metapod posted:Could I draft on a phone? Ya, there's an app and it's a slow draft, 8 hours per pick.
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Jul 7, 2015 23:47
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I find myself loving the "draft WR's in the 1st and 2nd round in ppr" idea if you have anything after the 4th or 5th pick. Once Le'Veon, AP, Lacy, Lynch and maybe 1-2 others are off the board, the top WR's look pretty good. Double so if it's an MFL where you start 3 WR's and a flex. In terms of value, the idea is 2nd round RB picks are not as efficient as 3rd-4th round picks like Forsett, Gore, Gordon, Miller, Ingram, Spiller, Ellington, Morris, Hyde, Stewart, Murry or Gurley to name a few. Receivers in that ADP range are Hilton, Hopkins, Cooks, Sanders, Jordan Matthews, K. Benjamin, AJ80, Edelman or Allen.
Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Jul 8, 2015 |
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Jul 8, 2015 00:05
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Cervixalot posted:Matt Waldman is also the creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, which has some good insights on incoming rookies each year. As someone who doesn't watch CFB, I've found it to be a pretty helpful resource, but don't know what his hit rate is like. Alright, I've got RSPs dating back to 2009. I'm not going to thoroughly pick it apart or quote it extensively, because it'd be a big post. (Also because it's a deserving paid product, 10% of which goes to charity.) But I'll pick out a few hits and misses that really stuck out to me. My overall evaluation: I'd call Waldman's "hit rate" pretty bad when it comes to rankings, because he ranks pre-draft and he's not afraid to put players much higher or lower than the consensus based purely on his film evaluation -- he generally tries ignoring expected draft position when writing the RSP, so you'll usually see at least one or two "Waldman favorites" show up way too high. But he's pretty clear that the RSP shouldn't be used as a fantasy draft ranking, and his post-draft updates are much more useful in that regard. When it comes to his analysis on players, though, I was very surprised at just how often I found myself nodding along when reading his take on a whole lot of players. In short: When it comes to putting together my yearly rookie draft sheet, I tend to build them with dynasty rookie ADP and NFL draft position playing much bigger factors, but Waldman's analysis is incredibly informative when it comes to understanding player strengths, weaknesses, polish, playstyle/comparison, etc. Looking back, I think that part of it holds up impressively and it always gets me reevaluating guys that he's especially high or down on. Some things that jumped out at me because they weren't really in line with general consensus at the time... 2010: Ranked Tebow QB11 ("I'm somewhat amazed there's talk of him as pick in the first three rounds of this draft.") and Colt McCoy QB17 ("Another highly decorated, but overrated QB prospect.") CJ Spiller as RB6 sticks out to me, and it's basically the argument people are still having about Spiller today. "He often looks like a great return specialist playing RB rather than a great RB that returns kicks." Depending on how you feel about Spiller, that could be a big hit or a big miss. He really dogs on Demaryius Thomas. He tags him as one of the most overrated and ranks him at WR11, saying "Georgia Tech, height, and weight are the only three things Thomas and Calvin Johnson have in common as receivers. ... He's an intriguing prospect, but not the same game changer Johnson was and it's unfair to Thomas to put those expectations on him." 2011: His takes on Locker (QB5), Dalton (QB9), and Kaepernick (QB10) are all really quite good, highlighting both the strengths and weaknesses that we have ended up seeing from them. Solid hit on DeMarco Murray (RB4), noting he's considered injury-prone but also that he's played through some of them, and otherwise sounding higher on him than I recall most being at the time. Also knocks Leshoure (RB7) and Daniel Thomas (RB8), both of whom were second round picks and ranked by most ahead of Murray. 2012: I'd call this one of Waldman's biggest hits. Waldman's QB3 and QB4 were Tannehill and Wilson respectively, and he's pretty glowing on both of them. Tannehill was obviously drafted third so that's not a big reach, but I recall plenty of skepticism on Tannehill at the time given that he was still somewhat raw, but Waldman's analysis is very positive. Wilson's the big hit here as Waldman was pounding the table for him before he ever got drafted. This was especially memorable to me as a Badger alum; while Wilson was exciting at the time for the Badgers, I was extremely skeptical that he could pan out in the NFL until reading Waldman's analysis on the matter. Not even Waldman thought he'd get a chance to start so quickly, but still, he's one of the only guys in the fantasy community I remember talking up Russell Wilson as a starter-caliber QB that spring. 2013: An awful year for QBs, but still, Tyler Wilson as QB1? "Wilson and Ryan Tannehill would have been a close call to rank if in same class last year"? Woof. Good call on Montee Ball at RB10 -- "I think pass protection is a significant flaw in his game and because he's merely a good, but not great athlete and runner I can foresee him stuck in a committee situation he never leaves." Ranked Kelce over Eifert, really highlighting his elite ability as a tight-end. 2014: Was on the Teddy Bridgewater train pretty hard; while he's ranked QB1, a lot of his opinion on Teddy was voiced elsewhere. Ranked Isaiah Crowell RB1 (again, depends on your opinion of Crowell since it's still early days) and Bishop Sankey RB10. Had Odell Beckham at WR2, right between Watkins and Evans, but was quite down on Jordan Matthews (WR19) and Kelvin Benjamin (WR20) -- I think his analysis of their flaws is pretty accurate, but this is a case of two guys getting knocked much, much too low.
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Jul 8, 2015 02:13
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Who do you guys think is gonna benefit the most from Gates absence? Keenan Allen/Stevie Johnson/Ladarius Green? I feel like this is finally Green's time to shine, but Keenan got a lot of action in the slot last year, and I think is probably a much better pass catcher in general than LD.
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Jul 8, 2015 16:34
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I'd probably give mild bumps to Green/Woodhead/Stevie/Keenan in PPR, in that order. I think the plan was to get Stevie involved out of the slot. Green is the most natural TD target from the redzone to replace Gates though, so he'd be the only appreciable bump I'd probably give in standard.
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Jul 8, 2015 16:40
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von Metternich posted:He sure is, I suspect that Mays is secretly a goon sometimes, the amount he talks about guards. (I'm pretty sure he played guard in college) Mays didn't play football in college, but did play both sides of the line in a pretty competitive High School. Can also confirm he was not a goon in college, though I lost touch with him once we graduated.
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Jul 8, 2015 16:53
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Ladarius Green can only run in a straight line down the field, fwtiw
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Jul 8, 2015 17:28
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I just joined that Goon MFL and we need some more people to get in on this. You'll be doing all of your drafts in about a month or so, and this is infinitely better practice than any mock drafts that you'll do.
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Jul 8, 2015 17:39
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Stevie Johnson is one of my top sleepers for the year, dude is totally underrated and Rivers is gonna love the poo poo out of him.
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Jul 8, 2015 17:40
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Franks Happy Place posted:Stevie Johnson is one of my top sleepers for the year, dude is totally underrated and Rivers is gonna love the poo poo out of him. Yeah, I like him as a wr3 with wr2 upside. I snagged him in dynasty at the end of last season hoping he would land in NE, but I almost like his current spot even more.
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Jul 8, 2015 17:50
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Question for the MFL/Dynasty gurus out there: I'm commish for a dynasty startup this year, and we're doing a startup auction draft for all players (including rookies) and starting our first rookie draft in 2016. Is it possibly to temporary expand rosters to allow for a rookie draft on MyFantasyLeague, and then force people to cut players to get down to the original size? So, let's say we're doing 24 man rosters and do a 4-round rookie draft. Would we expand our rosters to 28 for the rookie draft, and cut back down to 24 after the draft and forcing owners to each cut 4 players? Or is there a better way to handle rookie draft/free agent cuts that anyone would recommend?
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Jul 8, 2015 20:22
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Cervixalot posted:Question for the MFL/Dynasty gurus out there: A better question is: Can you tell MFL to NOT allow you to go over roster limits during the draft? I think it defaults to a soft cap. My main league does it this way: Regular season rosters: 43 (35 + 8 taxi squad) Offseason: 48 (40+8 taxi) Week after the NFL draft we do an 8 round rookie draft, rosters can expand to whatever at this point. Week 4 of preseason: Rosters must be back at 43 and taxi squad is locked for the year (you can take people out but not put new rookies in) Until such a time as you are at or below the roster limit, waivers/etc are forbidden.
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Jul 8, 2015 20:35
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Cervixalot posted:I just joined that Goon MFL and we need some more people to get in on this. You'll be doing all of your drafts in about a month or so, and this is infinitely better practice than any mock drafts that you'll do.
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Jul 9, 2015 01:03
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Cervixalot posted:Question for the MFL/Dynasty gurus out there: It's not 100% clear to me whether you're asking for suggestions on roster rules or just MFL mechanics. If the latter, as Azhais said, I believe MFL defaults to a soft roster cap but if it doesn't, then you can adjust it to do so in the settings. In that case, you could handle it something like Azhais: allow rosters to go over limits during the draft, but require that all teams cut back down to 24 after the draft (within 24 hours, a week, by a particular week of preseason, whatever). Allowing a temporarily uncapped roster limit is better than bumping it up to 28 and then back down IMO -- assuming you allow rookie picks to be traded, at least one owner will likely have more than 4 picks in any given draft, and people don't have to worry about going over if they trade away 1 pick for 2 players, for example. If you're looking for suggestions, another option is a taxi squad. Drafted rookies go immediately to taxi, and that's the only way to add players to the taxi (unless you allow owners to use rookie picks on free agents). Players on a taxi squad cannot be started in a lineup; in order to start a rookie, someone would need to make room on their main roster and activate them from the taxi squad. Other factors you'd need to settle on would be how long players can remain on the taxi squad (1 year? 3 years? indefinitely?) and how many taxi spots you'll have. My main league does 17 regular roster spots and 10 taxi squad spots, players can be reserved on taxi indefinitely. I'd prefer slightly larger rosters and a slightly smaller taxi; in 16 years, I don't think I've ever been forced to cut a taxi player that was still on an NFL roster to get down to 10. It can get a little silly when the taxi is that generous. I kept Sage Rosenfels on taxi for his entire 10 year career. He was never good enough to call up, but I never needed to make space to stay under the 10 taxi cap so there was never any point in cutting him either. It's a long-running league and pretty resistant to rule changes though, so I've never really pushed them on adjusting it.
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Jul 9, 2015 05:14
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Its Miller Time posted:Let's play a goon only MFL10. For those who haven't done one, this is a best ball/draft only thing. You pay $10, draft 20 rounds and then someone wins in a couple months. No need to set weekly lineups or search through free agency pools.
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Jul 9, 2015 17:27
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Its Miller Time posted:For those who haven't done one, this is a best ball/draft only thing. You pay $10, draft 20 rounds and then someone wins in a couple months. No need to set weekly lineups or search through free agency pools. c'mon goons, skip your daily mountain dew and burger king and join up
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Jul 9, 2015 18:36
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Gyshall posted:c'mon goons, skip your daily mountain dew and burger king and join up FINE Edit: joined
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Jul 9, 2015 18:42
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Gyshall posted:c'mon goons, skip your daily mountain dew and burger king and join up I prefer empty bye weeks to empty calories I'm in
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Jul 9, 2015 18:59
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Gyshall posted:c'mon goons, skip your daily mountain dew and burger king and join up Fine, I'm in! (Somebody has to remind me when the draft is)
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Jul 9, 2015 19:22
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89 posted:Fine, I'm in! (Somebody has to remind me when the draft is) As soon as we fill the league up, it'll start at 1:00 PM EST (or if we're past that time, the next day). Once it kicks off, it's a slow draft email format with 8 hours on the clock for each pick. It'll email you when it is your pick, and you can set pre-draft picks for each round to make things go faster.
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Jul 9, 2015 19:27
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I think I'm going to sit this one out. I'm trying to run a slow draft with a group of irl friends. God Bless anyone smart enough to figure out how to run a draft on MFL. poo poo, I thought being a participant was bad...being a commish is like 12 times more confusing than that!
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Jul 9, 2015 19:56
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Its Miller Time posted:Let's play a goon only MFL10. Sounded like fun but... MFL10s leagues are open to legal residents of the United States, excluding the states of Arizona, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, Vermont and Washington State, who are over 18 years of age. Employees of MFL and their immediate family are also ineligible to compete.
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Jul 9, 2015 20:30
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I joined the MFL10. I've been meaning to do these all summer but been too busy, looking forward to it.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:06
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I have to read up on this MFL business because i have no fucks idea what it is.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:31
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Sorry to hear about the state restriction. Not that they'd have any way of knowing... 3 spots left.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:55
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How do I join? Phone posting so excuse my ignorance.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:16
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Its Miller Time posted:Sorry to hear about the state restriction. Not that they'd have any way of knowing... I just wonder if they'd be happy to take the cash, but when it gets time to pay out, you get a nasty surprise.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:39
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Hey Beergod and others. I had a few questions... Last year I used FantasyPros' draft wizard for all my leagues and had incredibly good results (though mostly from waiver wire work... the drafting worked really well but often left 1-2 major positional weaknesses in my roster). Ended up placing first in 6 out of the 11 leagues I played and in the money in 9 leagues. I feel like the Draft Wizard drafting was flawed though, especially in the more unusual rosters/scoring leagues. How would you say Beersheets compare to FantasyPros' ECR+Draft Wizard in accuracy and results? Has anyone done any statistical analysis on this front? Also just so I can be clear that I'm looking at it right, in your standard scoring 12 Team 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLX/1DST/1PK sheet, you have Andrew Luck listed at 8.0 value. This makes him the 5th highest value player. Would this mean that if everyone drafts perfectly, he should be the 5th overall pick? The reason I ask is because this flies strongly in the face of the general consensus on where Luck should be drafted (FantasyPros ECR having him at 22nd overall, for example). Thanks in advance and thanks for all your hard work on the sheets. Voyaging fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Jul 10, 2015 |
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Jul 10, 2015 00:19
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Voyaging posted:Hey Beergod and others. I had a few questions... They're not "either" "or". I believe you can import position rankings, so import Beer's and use it to track who's available. If you wanted you could put them all together and sort by value to get an "overall" rankings, from which I know it can parse out position rankings. Also don't use ECR, make custom cheat sheets with the top 5-10 analysts.
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Jul 10, 2015 00:52
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Spot: Claimed. Also MFL is probably the premier no roster management website because navigating the site is a loving goddamn disaster
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Jul 10, 2015 04:23
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I haven't done any kind of accuracy comparison, although I keep the old sheets so if there's a way to do so I am all for trying. As for Luck, that's the consensus of a lot of projections and it's something I am seriously wondering about. EDIT: Looking things over Luck's standard deviation is super high. I will check over the projections and see what's going on there. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Jul 10, 2015 |
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Jul 10, 2015 04:51
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How many slots in the MFL10 league are left? If we lock in those final guys in the next few hours, we'll be able to kick off today!
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Jul 10, 2015 14:56
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I'll join after work if there's an opening. Trying to join from mobile was a pain.
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Jul 10, 2015 15:52
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I'll claim a spot if there is still one. Did I miss a link? I've barely been on the forums the past couple weeks.
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Jul 10, 2015 17:10
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You're in luck http://football20.myfantasyleague.c...ssword 2 more spots
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Jul 10, 2015 17:22
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Who would you guys take here (Red are players taken)? To me its between Blount and Boldin. 12 Team - 0 PPR - 1QB (16) / 2RB (41) / 3WR (44) / 1TE (17) / 0FLX / 1DST / 1PK Passing: 6 PPTD, 0.04 PPY, -2 Int | Rushing: 6 PPTD, 0.1 PPY | Receiving: 6 PPTD, 0.1 PPY, 0 PPR | Updated: 2015-07-05 
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Jul 10, 2015 17:24
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Well, I'm not logging into that site at work. I'll sign up tonight.
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Jul 10, 2015 17:26
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RisqueBarber posted:Who would you guys take here (Red are players taken)? To me its between Blount and Boldin.
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Jul 10, 2015 17:37
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RisqueBarber posted:Who would you guys take here (Red are players taken)? To me its between Blount and Boldin. They both suck. Maybe roll the dice on Agholor doing his best Maclin impression? Boldin is a really poor WR1 with limited upside, I think you need to take a shot on someone with a potentially higher upside.
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Jul 10, 2015 18:19
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You drafted a backup QB and 3 backup RB's before taking your first WR because.......? Please let us know who your WR3 is, because it's going to be great.
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Jul 10, 2015 18:25
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