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Vox Nihili posted:And also with pretty much completely reversed views on everything else, too. I don't think they actually paid a lot of attention to Ron, tbh.
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Jul 10, 2015 21:57
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Another fun difference between the Republican and Democratic primary process: the Republican Iowa caucuses are secret ballot, the Democratic Iowa caucuses are not (necessarily).
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Jul 10, 2015 21:58
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Daniel Bryan posted:I feel like you're living in some kind of radical bubble if you believe you could put Lincoln effing Chafee against Jeb Bush and win. The version of Lincoln Chafee that somehow wins the Dem primary would totally win. But real Lincoln Chafee will never break 5%. This isn't a radical bubble thing. It has nothing to do with the candidate and everything to do with the very difficult distribution of reliable Dem votes vs GOP votes for the presidency.
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Jul 10, 2015 21:58
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Morrow posted:I'm going to wait until Hillary hits 50, to maximize gains. You know, I didn't really consider her being a vindictive bitch out to destroy the Republican party. If true, that would kind of put her right up there with Bernie for me. Of all his great goals, destroying the opposition isn't one.
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Jul 10, 2015 21:58
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Joementum posted:Another fun difference between the Republican and Democratic primary process: the Republican Iowa caucuses are secret ballot, the Democratic Iowa caucuses are not. Caucuses are the dumbest poo poo.
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Jul 10, 2015 21:59
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:My view on Bernie as President is he'd be, at best, Jimmy Carter 2.0.
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Jul 10, 2015 21:59
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Supraluminal posted:I subscribe to the view that any reasonably competent candidate the Dems put up has got an excellent chance in the general this time around, and that preferring Clinton over Sanders purely for electability is largely running up the score. I just don't buy the "any D will win" argument. We're not exactly running on a great Obama record here: the economy isn't doing amazing, no foreign policy victory to wave in the air, we've gotten our biggest progressive wins from a court that is also dealing us losses. It is always hard to maintain the presidency after two terms. Meanwhile, the dirty tricks of politics and dark money have only gotten more powerful. We'll never know how much money gets spent on this cycle, ever. So I wouldn't be so confident that the Democrats can win the narrative in all the key states. Only demographics would be a saving grace, but those will be largely countered by making this a low-turnout high-negativity election. poo poo is going to be nasty no matter who the D is.
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Jul 10, 2015 21:59
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Pohl posted:http://sda.berkeley.edu/archive.htm Looks interesting! I was thinking of a few more focused polls like one which involved people's ideal income distributions by quintile and one which contrasted the popularity of temporary bank nationalization as a response to the 2008 crisis when pollers called it that and when the pollers just described what it would entail.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:00
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greatn posted:You know, I didn't really consider her being a vindictive bitch out to destroy the Republican party. If true, that would kind of put her right up there with Bernie for me. Of all his great goals, destroying the opposition isn't one.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:00
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JT Jag posted:Bernie has much more experience seeing how things work in Washington than Carter did. He's many things, but not naive. 2.0 means improvements! But yeah, he's not as naive as Carter; but I honestly see him as not being able to accomplish a whole lot. Basically, I don't think "anti-establishment" people are good at governing. It might be from my background in studying political revolutions.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:01
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Speaking of endorsements, Bernie picked up a crucial one half an hour ago.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:01
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Speaking of endorsements, Bernie picked up a crucial one half an hour ago. oh poo poo
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Jul 10, 2015 22:03
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Daniel Bryan posted:Electing another Democratic president after 2 elections of Obama I think does that anyway. I think what Generic Dem (or for that matter, Clinton) winning after Obama proves is more the decreasing viability of Republican politics in the Presidential contest, and says nothing much either way about progressivism.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:03
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Daniel Bryan posted:I feel like you're living in some kind of radical bubble if you believe you could put Lincoln effing Chafee against Jeb Bush and win. MrPants posted:The version of Lincoln Chafee that somehow wins the Dem primary would totally win. But real Lincoln Chafee will never break 5%. This isn't a radical bubble thing. It has nothing to do with the candidate and everything to do with the very difficult distribution of reliable Dem votes vs GOP votes for the presidency. This. The Democratic primary is the real test, with the general being essentially a formality IMO. Sure the Lincoln Chafee we know wouldn't win the general, but lucky for us we have primaries to filter out that option. My point is, any Democratic candidate who can win the primary stands an excellent chance of winning the general, since in this round of elections, all the reasonable candidates are competing for the Democratic ticket.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:03
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Supraluminal posted:I think what Generic Dem (or for that matter, Clinton) winning after Obama proves is more the decreasing viability of Republican politics in the Presidential contest, and says nothing much either way about progressivism. Hillary easily defeating Sanders would be a very large blow to progressivism within the Democratic Party. At this point he needs to win a few primaries at least.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:05
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Caucuses are the dumbest poo poo. Disagree. Caucuses are the best and states should all abandon their primary systems, which cost taxpayers millions, and force the state parties to use caucuses.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:05
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That is from the Daily Show last week.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:11
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Joementum posted:Disagree. Caucuses are the best and states should all abandon their primary systems, which cost taxpayers millions, and force the state parties to use caucuses. Done. Ron Paul is now the candidate for both parties.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:14
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THANK YOU BASED BERNIE
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Jul 10, 2015 22:14
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Alter Ego posted:They'll also be on the ballot for the Kill Your Parents Party, then? Naturally.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:14
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NEED TOILET PAPER posted:This. The Democratic primary is the real test, with the general being essentially a formality IMO. Sure the Lincoln Chafee we know wouldn't win the general, but lucky for us we have primaries to filter out that option. My point is, any Democratic candidate who can win the primary stands an excellent chance of winning the general, since in this round of elections, all the reasonable candidates are competing for the Democratic ticket. I wouldn't take the general election for granted here - I can very easily envision a scenario where a candidate wins the Democratic primary, but is unable to withstand the right-wing attack machine and ends up losing the general. All it would take is a small swing of a couple of percentage points in a few key states.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:15
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Joementum posted:Disagree. Caucuses are the best and states should all abandon their primary systems, which cost taxpayers millions, and force the state parties to use caucuses. True, but you can't deny that caucuses can be procedurally goofy as all hell.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:16
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Vox Nihili posted:Done. 
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Jul 10, 2015 22:16
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Vox Nihili posted:Bottom line as far as I can tell is that people think she has a better chance of beating the republicans. That and most of D&D still supports Bernie and will be voting for him in their primary. You can like him, vote for him, and still be ready to support the candidate that is all but guaranteed to actually win the primary all at the same time. It's like the opposite of how freep handles the primaries.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:16
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Syjefroi posted:Also the ability to win support from a majority of party actors. and http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/most-nomination-contests-have-bernie.html chalk another one up to Bernie
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Jul 10, 2015 22:19
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How much longer is Bernie going to be in the Senate? Edit: 2018 is when he would next be up for re-election. Taerkar fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Jul 10, 2015 |
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Jul 10, 2015 22:21
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Taerkar posted:How much longer is Bernie going to be in the Senate? until January 20th, 2017
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Jul 10, 2015 22:22
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Evil Fluffy posted:Bush is saying regulations should be rolled back and people should have to work more (and likely with no compensation because he sure as hell doesn't support Obama's recent actions). All of this is true, but the context of what Bush was saying was not this. He was saying that Democrats were killing full-time job creation by introducing onerous regulations (like healthcare requirements) on full-time jobs. Roll back the regulations, and you get more full-time jobs. Now he phrased it poorly, and that phrasing just so happens to belie his actual terrible beliefs that you're referring to, but even an honest, contextual reading of his statements is downright bad.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:23
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Yup, too young and non-American to get that reference.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:23
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:until January 20th, 2017 lol Pretty sure he said he wasn't going to run for Senate again and the Presidential run was his last hurrah.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:23
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Speaking of endorsements, Bernie picked up a crucial one half an hour ago. Wrap it up, Hillaryailures. LilB's curse destroys championship dreams for real, I bet his endorsement is equally as powerful.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:23
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Taerkar posted:How much longer is Bernie going to be in the Senate? He's in his early 70s and in pretty good shape for that age, so presuming he doesn't actually ascend to the presidency, I'd imagine he's got at least one or two more terms in him. Sir Tonk posted:lol Really? I don't remember hearing anything like that in any of the Bernie Buzz emails I get periodically, nor elsewhere. Captain_Maclaine fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Jul 10, 2015 |
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Jul 10, 2015 22:24
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Malloreon posted:Wrap it up, Hillaryailures. This is no joke, LilB has some serious mojo going.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:27
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I would really like to see some likely democratic primary voters polling for the Hillary-Bern matchup. Going just by registered voters and self-identification like that poll did isn't good enough. For example note the split for self identified Democrats: 65-29 Hillary. And between Democrats and independents guess who is most likely to vote in the Democratic primary... especially if the GOP clown car is still going full power. Even still that poll is not good news for Bernie. Because here's the trouble with pinning your hopes on the hispanic vote: they don't turn out. And here's the thing about having the black vote on your side: they turn out in a big way. in 2008 Hillary had 2:1 or greater lead over Obama in the Hispanic vote and a greater lead in the white vote than she does over Bernie now and she still lost because Obama had a 9:1 lock on the black vote and they turned out.. This time that poll shows the black demographic going 8:1 for Hillary. You'd need to see a very lopsided split for hispanics and decently sized one for white voters for Bernie for him to have a fighting chance in hell. You can see this by running a theoretical: Let's take Texas and assume turnout demographics similar to 2008: 50:30:20 white:hispanic:black (note this was a record-shattering hispanic turnout due to massive GOTV efforts from the Hillary camp). Assuming the entire "not sure" block of black voters goes Bernie so Hillary has a 80:20 lead over Bernie with the black vote Bernie would need something like a 10 point lead in the white vote and a 40 point spread in the hispanic vote to pull off a win.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:28
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DaveWoo posted:I wouldn't take the general election for granted here - I can very easily envision a scenario where a candidate wins the Democratic primary, but is unable to withstand the right-wing attack machine and ends up losing the general. All it would take is a small swing of a couple of percentage points in a few key states. I am certainly not taking the election as already won but I believe the scenarios in which those percentage points move toward the GOP require some significant anomaly that drops voter turnout or a major scandal that some how didn't come out until the general. The right wing attacks are so ubiquitous and expected at this point, their value in moving voters is easily overstated unless they have a real scandal to sell. Everyone has already heard the tired, made up bullshit and formed an opinion about it.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:31
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Jul 10, 2015 22:31
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Shifty Pony posted:I would really like to see some likely democratic primary voters polling for the Hillary-Bern matchup. Going just by registered voters and self-identification like that poll did isn't good enough. For example note the split for self identified Democrats: 65-29 Hillary. And between Democrats and independents guess who is most likely to vote in the Democratic primary... especially if the GOP clown car is still going full power. No one is saying Bernie would win any primary if it was held today, but the fact that he has gone from 10% to 25% nationally in about 10 days since the last poll and seems to be picking up steam among other demographics besides white liberals is a good sign. There's still 6 months and all the debates to get through.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:35
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Shifty Pony posted:I would really like to see some likely democratic primary voters polling for the Hillary-Bern matchup. Going just by registered voters and self-identification like that poll did isn't good enough. For example note the split for self identified Democrats: 65-29 Hillary. And between Democrats and independents guess who is most likely to vote in the Democratic primary... especially if the GOP clown car is still going full power. This is assuming everyone who has a preference now is on lock. Honestly I'm 110% for Sanders right now, but I can't guarantee that'll be the case after the first debate or two. I changed my mind a few times in 08, I'm certainly capable of doing it again. (Anecdote.)
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Jul 10, 2015 22:37
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:No one is saying Bernie would win any primary if it was held today, but the fact that he has gone from 10% to 25% nationally in about 10 days since the last poll and seems to be picking up steam among other demographics besides white liberals is a good sign. There's still 6 months and all the debates to get through. In *one* poll.
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Jul 10, 2015 22:37
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| # ? May 26, 2024 01:38 |
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nm
spite house fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Jul 10, 2015 |
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Jul 10, 2015 22:38
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