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Leofish posted:I know it's still really early in the interminable hellscape that is an American Presidential Election, but what is the Good Thread's honest opinion about Trump's actual, realistic odds of getting the GOP nom? The base may like him, but will there eventually come a moment where the party brass takes The Donald's ball away, tells him playtime is over, and puts forward someone else? Here are the polls from the 2012 Republican Primary. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-national-gop-primary#!selected=Cain,Gingrich,Huntsman,Paul,Perry,Romney,Santorum Notice at around this time Perry was leading then right after Herman Cain was. How likely do those guys seem in retrospect. This is how the primaries go. A crazy candidate is going to break out good poll numbers for a little while, maybe a month or two, then flame out spectacularly and Jeb will get it.
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Jul 18, 2015 21:13
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Venusian Weasel posted:Good try, but you forgot to blame the Forrestal fire on him. Goatman Sacks posted:There's some speculation that he blew his afterburner in the face of the guy behind him to show off, which cooked off the ordnance that started the whole thing - which was promptly covered up by Admiral Daddy. Here we go 
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Jul 18, 2015 21:15
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Shalebridge Cradle posted:Here are the polls from the 2012 Republican Primary. Trump's problem is that the flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long. He has to run out of crazy he can feed the base at some point, and if they can't get their fix, they'll move on. Ghost of Reagan Past fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Jul 18, 2015 |
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Jul 18, 2015 21:16
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I think Walker has a bigger shot at the nom than Jeb out of the establishment candidates, myself. Jeb's floundered badly on questions he absolutely should have expected and prepared for, and if he gets the nomination his decision to reassemble most of his brother's inner circle will be all over the news, which will more than likely badly alienate younger voters who came of age during one disastrous Bush presidency. Walker's an empty suit bought and paid for by the Koches, but he's an empty suit with less baggage than Bush.
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Jul 18, 2015 21:19
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They're outliers right? I was certain that Jibe at McCain would piss off a lot of Trump supporters, especially vets. edit: forgot a word
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Jul 18, 2015 21:21
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bpower posted:They're outliers right? I was certain that Jibe at McCain would piss off a lot of Trump, especially vets. It's Trump. He's one strange beast regarding public reception of remarks and actions that would sink any other candidate. His jab at McCain will probably hurt him, but likely not much. Most likely at this point is Trump's supporters going "Oh that silly Trump and the things he says," and brushing it off for "saying it like it is, none of this politician bullshit."
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Jul 18, 2015 21:25
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He's Trump, he's Trump, he's Trump The party's id. He's Trump, he's Trump, he's Trump What's on his head?
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Jul 18, 2015 21:31
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Cythereal posted:I think Walker has a bigger shot at the nom than Jeb out of the establishment candidates, myself. Jeb's floundered badly on questions he absolutely should have expected and prepared for, and if he gets the nomination his decision to reassemble most of his brother's inner circle will be all over the news, which will more than likely badly alienate younger voters who came of age during one disastrous Bush presidency. Walker's an empty suit bought and paid for by the Koches, but he's an empty suit with less baggage than Bush. This is a man who's own Mother said "we've enough Bushes in office" on live television. Not even his own mother would vote for him.
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Jul 18, 2015 21:35
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Crabtree posted:This is a man who's own Mother said "we've enough Bushes in office" on live television. Not even his own mother would vote for him. The whole Republican Presidential nomination shitshow is smoke and mirrors and pretty much the political equivalent of the magicians' card force. It's going to be Bush and it was always going to be Bush. He has the money and the backing of major players in the Republican party. The rest of this nonsense is just to distract the voters and make them think they had a choice in the nomination.
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Jul 18, 2015 21:43
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FuzzySkinner posted:http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/trump-attacks-mccain-being-prisoner-war-i-people-werent-captured_993092.html#.Vap_qf3YSaM.twitter The right wing base will eat this poo poo up. You all know they will. McCain is a loser to them because he failed to win. He was captured, which is another sign of his 'weakness'. That makes him a two time loser. Hell, he's physically disabled (as a result of his capture) too, if he were serious about it, that would have made him stronger, not weaker! Just watch. Cythereal posted:I think Walker has a bigger shot at the nom than Jeb out of the establishment candidates, myself. Jeb's floundered badly on questions he absolutely should have expected and prepared for, and if he gets the nomination his decision to reassemble most of his brother's inner circle will be all over the news, which will more than likely badly alienate younger voters who came of age during one disastrous Bush presidency. Walker's an empty suit bought and paid for by the Koches, but he's an empty suit with less baggage than Bush. Jeb's more dangerous than Walker. If Walker gets the nod, the whole "I won 3 elections in 4 years" thing is going to be (rightfully) shouted down as "You shouldn't have had to, you rear end in a top hat." The right sees Walker winning his recall election as a GOOD thing. Any sane person outside of Wisconsin will see it as "Why the gently caress did you have to stare down a recall election in the first place". edit again to add: additionally, Walker has serious skeletons in his closet. He moved to make all inter-government communications made legally opaque or unviewable by the public on the eve of his announcement to run for president because he presumably wanted to block anyone from researching his activities while involved with potentially illegal campaign funds. ...which the Wisconsin Supreme Court just up and decided he wasn't able to be investigated for. A decision which itself will probably be challenged on the national level. Big Beef City fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jul 18, 2015 |
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Jul 18, 2015 21:58
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Big Beef City posted:The right wing base will eat this poo poo up. You all know they will. Im worried that this might not be true. Walker's signature policies are all just spiteful bullshit, but "serious" "moderates" will still use the fact that he got them implemented as a plus, and nowadays you can't be "serious" if you aren't stomping on the poor at least a little. Plenty of "serious" people believe that the recall was just teachers throwing a tantrum about having to make the sacrifices that "serious" people say they should. I mean, if rich people have to make all those sacrifices, so should they.
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Jul 18, 2015 22:31
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Big Beef City posted:The right wing base will eat this poo poo up. You all know they will. The comments have been defending Trump, but the media narrative will be strongly on McCain's side as usual. It also gives the other candidates something they can finally condemn Trump for without completely upsetting the base.
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Jul 18, 2015 23:20
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bango skank posted:How anyone can say the man who gave the country Sarah Palin isn't a far right shithead is beyond me. Not to mention he was all too happy to ride tea party nativist mania with the whole 'complete the danged fence' thing. It's cute how everyone can pretend this noble man is horrified by what his party has become when he was actively leading them there.
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Jul 18, 2015 23:41
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Cythereal posted:Pretty much. For non-Americans watching the fireworks, Trump is the conflict between establishment conservatism and populist conservatism in the American far right made manifest. Yeah, if Trump has seriously bought into his own bullshit he could potentially take this all the way, 3rd party and everything, which is amazing. That said I think he does have a non-trivial chance of winning, just because he's the first quasi-credible candidate to really tap into right-wing populism in a big way. I don't think anyone's ever successfully won the presidency just with that constituency, but historically speaking it's been a powerful force and in a way it may be more virulent now, due to Fox News and obama derangement, than it's ever been before. Plus all the forces that would normally check a campaign like Trump's -- lack of institutional support from the Republican Party, etc. -- won't hold Trump back because he has sufficient personal wealth to self-finance. So who the gently caress knows! Open Season! It's probably about time for a major party realignment anyway. Hoping Bernie gets the Democratic nod and the right wing splits into fragmented madness.
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Jul 19, 2015 00:02
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Big Beef City posted:The right wing base will eat this poo poo up. You all know they will. Was Walker ever under consideration from Romney as a VP nom? Because could it be that the issues related to his almost certainly illegal dealings kept him from getting the VP nod? I'm just thinking of Christie.
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Jul 19, 2015 00:12
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bango skank posted:How anyone can say the man who gave the country Sarah Palin isn't a far right shithead is beyond me. The "moderate" Republicans would probably be worse than a tea partier as president to be honest, because they're all hardcore neocons. President Rand Paul wouldn't be able to repeal half of the federal government because you need congress for that. President Jeb would have the power to start Iraq War 3 regardless of what congress thought. MaxxBot fucked around with this message at 00:30 on Jul 19, 2015 |
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Jul 19, 2015 00:27
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:Not to mention he was all too happy to ride tea party nativist mania with the whole 'complete the danged fence' thing. It's cute how everyone can pretend this noble man is horrified by what his party has become when he was actively leading them there. I wouldn't say he was actively leading it. But at best he did enable it.
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Jul 19, 2015 01:00
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Gravel Gravy posted:I wouldn't say he was actively leading it. But at best he did enable it. He wasn't actively leading but he wasn't exactly slowing it down either. He's still awful just slightly less so than most (well, all really) of today's clown car. The whole party is racist, classist, theocratic garbage. It's like the difference between being stabbed with a knife or hit with an axe. They both really, really suck and you don't want either of them.
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Jul 19, 2015 01:20
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These are the people who booed a gay soldier during a debate and cheered for an uninsured sick person to die. Trump's only mistake at this point would be to apologize. Also, wasn't McCain gleefuly giving away native american land to corporations in TYOOL 2015? Singing about bombing Iran? Claiming he never set himself as a maverick? He might have posed as a reasonable type now and then to woo a few (well, more than a few) Village journos, but he's never been anything other than a vile, greedy schemer. Even John Ashcroft had moments in which he was less than a total poo poo, and that's no reason to suddenly start slobbering over them. In a dumb way, Trump's quote makes sense. Going out and killing/imprisoning the enemy is the stuff that wins wars, not getting captured. It's like the old quote about no one winning a war by dying for their nation but by making sure the other side has lots and lots of heroes to mourn. We give POWs respect because they get a raw deal doing our realpolitik dirty jobs, and that's fine. But let's not pretend the GOP base (and more than a few democrats) wouldn't prefer someone who had conquered Hanoi. Lt. Calley must kick himself for not going into politics.
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Jul 19, 2015 01:20
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Goatman Sacks posted:There's some speculation that he blew his afterburner in the face of the guy behind him to show off, which cooked off the ordnance that started the whole thing - which was promptly covered up by Admiral Daddy. there's some speculation that a colony of greys lives under groom lake, too
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Jul 19, 2015 01:31
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Popular Thug Drink posted:there's some speculation that a colony of greys lives under groom lake, too No that one's true.
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Jul 19, 2015 01:36
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Do conservatives still tag everything on Twitter with #tcot, or have they moved to some different hashtags?
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Jul 19, 2015 01:39
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Ghost of Reagan Past posted:Do conservatives still tag everything on Twitter with #tcot, or have they moved to some different hashtags? #heritagenothate
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Jul 19, 2015 01:43
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Just searched through the last few pages of this thread. No talk of David Brooks' op-ed letter to Ta-Nehisi Coates? Because hooooooly... jesus this thing is awful; a trainwreck. What the gently caress is "excessive realism"? And the gall to end with "Maybe the right white response is just silence for a change." Ugh gently caress this dude so hard.
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Jul 19, 2015 01:49
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Wraith of J.O.I. posted:Just searched through the last few pages of this thread. No talk of David Brooks' op-ed letter to Ta-Nehisi Coates? Because hooooooly... jesus this thing is awful; a trainwreck. What the gently caress is "excessive realism"? And the gall to end with "Maybe the right white response is just silence for a change." Ugh gently caress this dude so hard. I thought Thomas Friedman was the most obviously dim 'smart media person" alive, until I learned of Brooks. Now, every day when I read news I feel a tingle of joy that Andrew Sullivan is gone, but Brooks never fails to set my piss to a boil. He is like a cartoon's version of a white explorer spelunking among savages and utterly clueless at they way they do things ("So you say you work -two- of theses 'jobs' you speak of? Most Fascinating!", or "Goodness Gracious!If you don't fancy your life of poverty, how about just getting married?"), except the savages are anyone who can't afford to offshore their wealth.
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Jul 19, 2015 02:02
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Wraith of J.O.I. posted:Just searched through the last few pages of this thread. No talk of David Brooks' op-ed letter to Ta-Nehisi Coates? Because hooooooly... jesus this thing is awful; a trainwreck. What the gently caress is "excessive realism"? And the gall to end with "Maybe the right white response is just silence for a change." Ugh gently caress this dude so hard. Oh god I couldn't finish that. Could someone summarize that for me as blithely as possible?
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Jul 19, 2015 02:03
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Sephyr posted:I thought Thomas Friedman was the most obviously dim 'smart media person" alive, until I learned of Brooks. Or the kind of person who boasts about how he's in touch with the common people because he knows what they talk about when they're at the salad bar at Applebee's (Applebee's doesn't have a salad bar).
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Jul 19, 2015 02:07
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A man intelligent and privileged enough to be very very stupid posted:I read this all like a slap and a revelation. I suppose the first obligation is to sit with it, to make sure the testimony is respected and sinks in. But I have to ask, Am I displaying my privilege if I disagree? Is my job just to respect your experience and accept your conclusions? Does a white person have standing to respond?  I reject your reality and substitute my own.
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Jul 19, 2015 02:08
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site posted:#heritagenothate Anyway, a preview of what's to come.  From ~3300 tweets tagged with #tcot (around 30 minutes of tweets, I think; I didn't keep track because I wanted to test it and got impatient  )Also, a fun tweet I spotted when it dumped some data for debugging purposes quote:"OUR MOST PERSONAL INFO FOR RACIAL JUSTICE": OBAMA MAINTAINING SECRET WHITE GENOCIDE DATABASE
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Jul 19, 2015 03:10
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Sephyr posted:Lt. Calley must kick himself for not going into politics. He wouldn't stand a chance, he apologized (in 2009).
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Jul 19, 2015 05:34
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Ghost of Reagan Past posted:Heh. It's not all caps, but it does have a bonus link https://twitter.com/PatDollard/status/622546474488975360
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Jul 19, 2015 06:03
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So in the facebook groups I belong to that watch right wing and CT stuff, mostly mocking it, a video keeps getting shared that labeled The video that got "Napoliano fired from Fox News!" and "Napoliano blows the lid off *instert crazy CT thing here". I haven't watched it because its always a Worldtruth, beforeitsnews or Infowars link, and I will never give a site like that a click even to see what crazy is looking like today. Does anyone know what they're talking about? All I know is Napoliano is a former judge who has zero idea how government or the courts work, and less about American history than people writing Texan history books.
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Jul 19, 2015 06:17
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Xanderkish posted:Oh god I couldn't finish that. Could someone summarize that for me as blithely as possible? A privileged white man tells a black man to stop being so Keep in mind that this oped was written as a letter to Coates because Coates book was written as a letter addressed to his son explaining why his chance of achieving the American Dream are lesser than for others because of his race. sexy fucking muskrat fucked around with this message at 06:39 on Jul 19, 2015 |
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Jul 19, 2015 06:26
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Ghost of Reagan Past posted:Heh. What is tcot supposed to be short for?
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Jul 19, 2015 06:28
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That unfunny John Stewart ripoff lists "ending slavery" as one of the great things white people have done for the United States. loving 
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Jul 19, 2015 06:32
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Prism posted:What is tcot supposed to be short for?
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Jul 19, 2015 06:34
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twistedmentat posted:So in the facebook groups I belong to that watch right wing and CT stuff, mostly mocking it, a video keeps getting shared that labeled The video that got "Napoliano fired from Fox News!" and "Napoliano blows the lid off *instert crazy CT thing here". I haven't watched it because its always a Worldtruth, beforeitsnews or Infowars link, and I will never give a site like that a click even to see what crazy is looking like today. Maybe he decided to call Lincoln a Tyrant again and Fox decided it was to much.
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Jul 19, 2015 06:35
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Voyager I posted:So on another note, I spent a few days visiting my father and one of his close friends turned out to be a diehard Alex Jones follower. I'd heard him mentioned in passing just from browsing this particular forum, but from hearing a bit of his podcasts he seems like an obvious huckster whose business model is to spout off an inane string of conspiracy theories that are impossible to fact-check tied together with fallacious arguments and then conclude that the only way to protect yourself from the new world order is to buy his $400 water filtration system. I was serious about this from before. If a reasonably concise poo poo has been taken on Alex Jones somewhere I'd appreciate getting pointed in that direction. Or is he looney enough to go in the conspiracies thread instead?
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Jul 19, 2015 06:37
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Voyager I posted:I was serious about this from before. If a reasonably concise poo poo has been taken on Alex Jones somewhere I'd appreciate getting pointed in that direction. he's one of those people who's so deep into conspiracy theories that he believes in all of them, every single one. conspiracy thinking isn't a rational thought process but more like a mental disorder, so there's no real debunking unless you want to look at specific arguments and why they are dumb. the only reason you've ever heard of alex jones is because in addition to being a conspiracist, he's a huckster and self-promoter http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Alex_Jones the main reason people believe in conspiracy theories is because they have broken brains, and they can't control their ability to feel fear or make patterns. humans are very good at pattern recognition, and we can often find patterns where none really exist. also it's intoxicating to feel like you hold secret knowledge of the world that makes you better than the ignorant masses boner confessor fucked around with this message at 06:51 on Jul 19, 2015 |
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Jul 19, 2015 06:49
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twistedmentat posted:So in the facebook groups I belong to that watch right wing and CT stuff, mostly mocking it, a video keeps getting shared that labeled The video that got "Napoliano fired from Fox News!" and "Napoliano blows the lid off *instert crazy CT thing here". I haven't watched it because its always a Worldtruth, beforeitsnews or Infowars link, and I will never give a site like that a click even to see what crazy is looking like today. ??? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgGnBCDfCLM
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Jul 19, 2015 06:50
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