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I corrected myself pretty quickly on the sophomore thing! Looking at it a bit more, the 10th is pretty incredible value for a potential WR1 so it's probably a low risk high reward move.
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Aug 13, 2015 14:03
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MrSargent posted:Really? Not sure why you would want to take a sophomore WR with absolute dogshit at QB instead of a potential RB1 and lock RB2. Yah the 10th is good value for Hopkins but there is just a lot of uncertainty around his production this year. Miller is on a good team with a solid offense. I debated it for a little while. Here is my argument: 1. Hopkins has already demonstrated the ability to perform at a high level in spite of having poor QB play. 2. The league is half PPR. 3. It's a 3WR league (LOL TE flex) with a flex, meaning the potential exists to field 4 WRs. That tends to value WRs roughly equivalent to their RB counterparts. 4. RB turnover is historically higher than WR turnover, so in the future a WR keeper is more likely to stay valuable. 5. Given that they share a third round ADP the later pick is more compelling. It's a valid thing to discuss, particularly given their proximity in redraft ADP and their respective concerns. Hopefully Hopkins plays out; he's my WR3 in a dynasty league.
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Aug 13, 2015 14:10
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Rotoviz Rotoviz has good preseason articles but is practically useless during the season. They just stop updating. Like 1-2 articles a week and that's it. I don't think it's worth the year long subscription. Much better to just get the $1 one day access, and read all the relevant ones all at once prior to your draft
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Aug 13, 2015 14:44
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:
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Aug 13, 2015 15:31
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That point per completion league is the worst thing I've ever seen. Jesus Christ. Just tell the commish to stop being an idiot and change the scoring.
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Aug 13, 2015 15:34
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Papes posted:And yet another goon tries to lazily apply the sophomore slump narrative on a player who isn't even a sophomore. You post like a turd. Also he has a point in saying that Hopkins is going to continue to have dogshit at the QB position and Lamar Miller was a RB9 last year. Most of the narrative in this thread is take scarcity positions and getting a pretty much unhandcuffed talented RB is worth more than Hopkins potential. You gotta stop trying to call out the one mistake in a post instead of looking at the post as a whole because drat if it isn't annoying and petty as poo poo.
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Aug 13, 2015 15:36
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89 posted:Wait, so in a 3WR league, WRs are a little more important than usual? I've got my 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, ZeroFlex league and I'm big time questioning if I even draft a RB in the first 3 rounds (10 man) at the 7th pick. 3WR versus 2WR means your WR depth is more key, but not necessarily that you should wait on your RB1. So to me it means that if I go RB -> WR/WR -> RB and I'm sitting in the third looking at Cooks/Hopkins/Matthews against Miller/Ingram/Morris and I honestly can't decide, the 3WR/2RB vs. 2WR/2RB might make it less of a coin flip and more "well I need more WRs for the slots anyway so I'll lean WR." (EDIT: Personally in a 2RB/2WR league in this situation I'd lean RB in the third as I think there's some pretty good depth at WR with the likes of Wallace & Charles Johnson, Perriman & Steve Smith, Landry, Quick, etc in later rounds) However I would still suggest grabbing an RB in the first three rounds as IMHO the RB quality takes a nose dive in the mid-late 3rd round after Miller/Ingram/Morris/Gore/Stewart are gone and you're staring at rookies (Gordon, Gurley, Yeldon) or backups/injury-prone guys (Jennings, Spiller, Abdullah, Bernard). Of course there are caveats to all draft suggestions. If you want to load up on WR first three rounds and try to trade for an RB1/RB2 later on (or place your bets on waivers), go right ahead. Amergin fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Aug 13, 2015 |
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Aug 13, 2015 15:56
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They're talking J. Matthews up in camp something fierce. It's hard to say how much of that is just preseason bluster but it would make sense that he's playing his heart out since he's essentially in direct competition with Algohor for the WR1 spot on the team. I wouldn't sleep on him this year.
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Aug 13, 2015 16:04
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89 posted:Wait, so in a 3WR league, WRs are a little more important than usual? I've got my 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, ZeroFlex league and I'm big time questioning if I even draft a RB in the first 3 rounds (10 man) at the 7th pick. Well the point of fantasy football is to get more points out of your starters than the other guy. A WR3 spot makes your WR3s more important, because you will be forced to start them every week rather than holding them for depth. I've actually had a bit of a tough time figuring out how to reflect this in my value-based calculations. Beersheets compares each player to the worst starter given a typical injury rate, meaning that adding a WR3 spot actually adds value to WR1s etc in addition to WR3s (which I'm not sure about). In contrast, a "VORP" comparison to "replacement-level players" is actually completely unaffected by adding a WR3 in most of the ways it is calculated, which also doesn't seem right. The best I can come up at the moment with is changing the weights for how "need" is calculated, but that just feels like a cop-out (because it's just something I set by hand in an ad-hoc manner). However, I am currently working on an idea where the "comparison player" changes dynamically after each time you pick a player at a given position (e.g. your first WR off the board compares expected value to other WR1s, your second compares values to other WR2s etc), and picks are made based off a value-over-next-available strategy. It's a tough one to code, though, so I'm not sure how it's going to turn out. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Aug 13, 2015 |
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Aug 13, 2015 16:12
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One of my leagues is also looking at that completion thing, but at .5 points per. They also added 1 point for rushing 1st downs(???) and currently 0 ppr but I imagine that will change. I think Luck and Rodgers go early but am I crazy for thinking I can target Ryan in the 4th or 5th depending on where I pick? I don't think he is high on many lists.
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Aug 13, 2015 16:19
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Forever_Peace posted:Well the point of fantasy football is to get more points out of your starters than the other guy. Yeah, three WRs is reducing the quality of replacement level players (basically pushing the bar down by ~12 spots in the WR ranks), which has a significant effect on the VORP number as a result. I dunno how you do your calculations, but it's a pretty math-y cause and effect relationship, so it should be doable.
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Aug 13, 2015 16:19
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Franks Happy Place posted:Yeah, three WRs is reducing the quality of replacement level players (basically pushing the bar down by ~12 spots in the WR ranks), which has a significant effect on the VORP number as a result. I dunno how you do your calculations, but it's a pretty math-y cause and effect relationship, so it should be doable. Well, it depends on how you define "replacement level". The standard definition (e.g. in baseball) is "the production you can get for the minimum opportunity cost", which in a 15-round fantasy draft has typically been defined as "what you can get in the 10th round" (i.e. once the expected value curve flattens out for every position and folks just gamble on whatever lotto tickets they like). In this definition, we might expect a normal team to take about 4-5 WRs by the 10th round, which isn't so different from a 3WR team which might take 4-6 by the 10th round. The difference in a 10th-round WR in a WR2 draft and a 10th-round WR in a WR3 draft is pretty minimal, so VORP is not going to change much. FWIW I've simulated different "rounds" for the replacement-level player (e.g. rounds 4, 6, 8, 10, and various averages of these) using historical data and round 10 seems to perform the best in standard scoring leagues of 10 or 12 teams. Beer handles the addition a bit more gracefully. He defines replacement level as the "worst starter" given an empirical injury rate for each position. So adding a WR3 changes the comparison player from, say WR25 to, say, WR38 or something. This adds a static number to all WRs. That's helpful for the WR3s, but I'm not sure I personally would value WR1s more highly just because I also have to draft a starting WR3 (because they still have the same weekly benefit at the WR1 spot). I haven't actually run the historical simulations for this, though, so I don't know whether it works out well or not (Beer has kindly provided me the historical beer sheets though, so I'll get to it eventually - thanks again!). What I'm suggesting is an approach where the comparison player adapts to A) the positions you're drafting for, and B) what is likely to be available by your next pick. So "value" is defined as "positional advantage" and then adjusted by the opportunity cost of your current pick.
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Aug 13, 2015 16:38
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I actually passed on Hopkins for Jordan Matthews in my draft but I would have had zero issue taking him to be my WR2 (in fact I tried trading down because I liked quite a few wideouts on the board, including Jmatt, Hopkins, and Kelvin) so I'm not sure why everybody is so down on him this year.
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Aug 13, 2015 16:44
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Ty1990 posted:I actually passed on Hopkins for Jordan Matthews in my draft but I would have had zero issue taking him to be my WR2 (in fact I tried trading down because I liked quite a few wideouts on the board, including Jmatt, Hopkins, and Kelvin) so I'm not sure why everybody is so down on him this year. Just down comparatively between the question of keeping him or Miller. Hopkins is lighting up camp and he's a reliable commodity in the past, but willfully ignoring how terrible the Texans offense will undoubtedly be this year is one sided thinking. At some point in time stats can't trump context. They have Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer throwing him the ball. They have Alfred Blue or Chris Polk establishing the ground game. They had one of the worst sack rates and one of the worst o-line play last year. Miller on the other hand is going to have a better offense and a decent defense, plus he's unhandcuffed. He put up 1k yards, 8 tds, and 40 receptions last year once Knowshon was out of the picture and he'll probably replicate that again this year. I just don't see how you'd pick one over the other considering the position scarcity of RB, the relative glut of WR2/3's this year, and the likelihood that one is going to have more opportunities to score and get consistent looks than the other. The one good argument is that he has Hopkins at ridiculous keeper value and Hopkins should be a better keeper down the road as the Texans retool their offense than Miller.
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Aug 13, 2015 16:50
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Forever_Peace posted:Well, it depends on how you define "replacement level". The standard definition (e.g. in baseball) is "the production you can get for the minimum opportunity cost", which in a 15-round fantasy draft has typically been defined as "what you can get in the 10th round" (i.e. once the expected value curve flattens out for every position and folks just gamble on whatever lotto tickets they like). In this definition, we might expect a normal team to take about 4-5 WRs by the 10th round, which isn't so different from a 3WR team which might take 4-6 by the 10th round. The difference in a 10th-round WR in a WR2 draft and a 10th-round WR in a WR3 draft is pretty minimal, so VORP is not going to change much. FWIW I've simulated different "rounds" for the replacement-level player (e.g. rounds 4, 6, 8, 10, and various averages of these) using historical data and round 10 seems to perform the best in standard scoring leagues of 10 or 12 teams. Wouldn't part of the adjustment have to be the assumption that WRs will go off the board sooner too? I have to think you'd get more runs on WR and be more likely to be fielding a joke at WR3.
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Aug 13, 2015 17:06
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Doltos posted:Just down comparatively between the question of keeping him or Miller. Hopkins is lighting up camp and he's a reliable commodity in the past, but willfully ignoring how terrible the Texans offense will undoubtedly be this year is one sided thinking. At some point in time stats can't trump context. They have Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer throwing him the ball. They have Alfred Blue or Chris Polk establishing the ground game. They had one of the worst sack rates and one of the worst o-line play last year. Bad teams still produce fantasy studs no matter how hard you try to ignore it. Give me Hopkins all day. In five years no one will remember Millers name, while Hopkins will be a yearly top 10 WR. I'm also high on miller, but not when compared to a young WR1 in a keeper format.
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Aug 13, 2015 17:06
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Felter Chesthard posted:One of my leagues is also looking at that completion thing, but at .5 points per. They also added 1 point for rushing 1st downs(???) and currently 0 ppr but I imagine that will change. I think Luck and Rodgers go early but am I crazy for thinking I can target Ryan in the 4th or 5th depending on where I pick? I don't think he is high on many lists. Put your league scoring into fftoday to look at how QB scoring was last year. Points per completion kind of messes up intuitive QB rankings, because good, efficient QBs/offenses aren't necessarily going to be leading the league in completions. You want a high volume passing offense that is a bit inefficient; shorter completed passes = more completed passes. If Rodgers goes 2/2 for 70 yards in a drive, for example, he'd be outscored by a middling QB that goes 5/8 for 50 yards.
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Aug 13, 2015 17:19
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Honore_De_Balzac posted:Bad teams still produce fantasy studs no matter how hard you try to ignore it. Give me Hopkins all day. In five years no one will remember Millers name, while Hopkins will be a yearly top 10 WR. Yeah like I said it seems like the only way you'd want him next year over Miller is as a long term keeper.
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Aug 13, 2015 17:23
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Hopkins is pretty good but I'm still likely going to pass over him for a receiver with a more competent QB
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Aug 13, 2015 18:19
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I'm glad the the general consensus feels that way, I'm hoping to get as many shares of Hopkins and Allen Robison as I can rounds 4-6.
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Aug 13, 2015 19:15
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In 21 total games playing for New England, LaGarrette Blount has 213 carries for 1,053 yards, an average around 4.8 YPC, 10 touchdowns, and 0 fumbles. I've been grabbing him pretty consistently in the 5th-6th rounds of most mock drafts I'm doing. Despite the weirdness that NE brings with running backs, I genuinely feel like Blount will be a solid RB2 this season. Guy's got value.
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Aug 13, 2015 19:24
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Yeah as long as you have inside information that will tell you what weeks to play him
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Aug 13, 2015 19:34
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drizzle posted:Yeah as long as you have inside information that will tell you what weeks to play him Which weeks does he play the Colts this year?
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Aug 13, 2015 20:03
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Papes posted:I'm glad the the general consensus feels that way, I'm hoping to get as many shares of Hopkins and Allen Robison as I can rounds 4-6. If you get Hopkins in the 4th you don't need to worry about your league because you're drafting with idiots.
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Aug 13, 2015 20:04
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:If you get Hopkins in the 4th you don't need to worry about your league because you're drafting with idiots. In the last mfl10 I did I swooped him at 3.10, I don't see how 4th would be that unreasonable.
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Aug 13, 2015 20:27
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Papes posted:In the last mfl10 I did I swooped him at 3.10, I don't see how 4th would be that unreasonable. Huh, I guess I thought his ADP was higher. I remember him going in the late 2nd a month or so ago. Then again I'm really high on him.
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Aug 13, 2015 20:41
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Huh, I guess I thought his ADP was higher. I remember him going in the late 2nd a month or so ago. Then again I'm really high on him. Ya, he is going way too late right now.
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Aug 13, 2015 21:00
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So the cheating league has finalized this year's rules. 16 teams should be a lot of fun. What do you guys think?quote:Offense: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLX/1PK
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Aug 13, 2015 21:03
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I think I'm about to beat your skull and everyone else's skulls in chump
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Aug 13, 2015 21:08
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Spoeank posted:I think I'm about to beat your skull and everyone else's skulls in chump You think SPLC will take up your case after you're beaten to a pulp? OH WAIT THEY WON'T HAVE THE FUNDS.
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Aug 13, 2015 21:41
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Alright, I think I'm going with Hopkins. I weighed what everybody said against my own list (even you, Doltos  ). Then I mocked a few scenarios for seven owners picking ahead of me. The three most plausible ones look pretty good for picks 10/11. Note that plausible means how my dumb friends typically draft. Listed in order from least to most likely.1) All seven draft RBs so my RB2/3 are from Ingram, Forsett, Miller (lawl), Gordon, Ellington, L Murray. If this happens I may pull the trigger on a top WR and Gronk and gamble on getting value RBs later in the draft. 2) Two to four people draft WRs/Gronk (Brown, DT, ODB, Jones/Megatron) and I end up with two of Forte/McCoy/Gore/Forsett/Miller or one RB plus a top WR in Megatron/AJ 3) Four people draft WRs/Gronk and I end up with better slightly higher end RBs than #2. I really, really like the idea of keeping Lamar since I have to weather Bell's suspension for two weeks. But I think if I have Jordy/Hopkins as my WR1/2 I can afford to go RB/RB in the first and second so I'll have a pretty strong flex/backup once Bell is playing again. I'll also be in a good position to go for a WR or Gronk if the higher tier RBs I like are gone. So basically Hopkins gives me more flexibility due to the league's roster. Thanks for your thoughts, goons. 3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Aug 13, 2015 |
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Aug 13, 2015 22:47
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Varg posted:Hopkins is pretty good Ty1990 posted:I actually passed on Hopkins for Jordan Matthews in my draft but I would have had zero issue taking him to be my WR2 (in fact I tried trading down because I liked quite a few wideouts on the board, including Jmatt, Hopkins, and Kelvin) so I'm not sure why everybody is so down on him this year.
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Aug 14, 2015 00:05
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If anyone cares, I was curious about how much PPR really changes the RB/WR disparity. Last year was pretty terrible for RBs... http://www.riordan.io/2015/ppr/ It seems like 0.25 PPR does a bit better job on normalizing these in terms of means for 10 teamish leagues
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Aug 14, 2015 00:29
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Anyone else pumped to make wild conjectures about the Dallas run game situation based off a couple meaningless snaps and maybe a third quarter TD plunge by an undrafted rookie?
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Aug 14, 2015 00:37
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ZIGfried posted:Anyone else pumped to make wild conjectures about the Dallas run game situation based off a couple meaningless snaps and maybe a third quarter TD plunge by an undrafted rookie? Gus Johnson will be drafted at the end of drafts after tonight.
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Aug 14, 2015 00:46
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I've got to say, that Saints defense looks soft as gently caress. Ingram won't have a chance this year if the Taliaferro's of the world can march down the field. I'd still take Spiller in the fifth though.
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Aug 14, 2015 00:54
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You guys hear that? That's what the sound of Abdullah's ADP shooting up. HE'S SUPPOSED TO BE OUR SECRET! 
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Aug 14, 2015 01:01
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89 posted:You guys hear that? That's what the sound of Abdullah's ADP shooting up. He was my 1.9 in one of my dynasty leagues, lookin like a much better investment than Sankey
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Aug 14, 2015 01:14
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Taliaferro and Gray got a ton of looks. Yay preseason.
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Aug 14, 2015 02:27
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Niles Paul dislocated his ankle.  one of my sleeper TE candidates.I still don't trust Jordan Reed with his concussion history.
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Aug 14, 2015 02:36
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