|
BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:The Broncos have a ton of RB depth. Anderson is far from a sure thing. He has looked good, and while most people think he will have a good year, he's still a fairly risky pick. Drafting CJ Anderson first round or even early second round is completely loving stupid. Take it from someone who drafted Montee Ball last year. The whole point of fantasy football is to draft the surest players possible until there are no more (almost) sure things left, then you can start to reach a bit. Drafting guys like CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill etc first/second round is a good way to not make the playoffs of your league. You're basically saying "I hope this pays off" instead of "I hope this elite player doesn't get injured". There's a much bigger chance of your sophomore RB not panning out than Jordy Nelson going out for the season, who you know is gonna catch double digit TDs. And specifically for the Broncos, it's been proven that they have at least 3 backs that could take over bellcow duties. Do not draft CJ Anderson. Also he's not a better candidate than Ball. He's a 5'8, undrafted player who was the 3rd string back at best until both Ball and Hillman got hurt. Ball was a second round pick and a dominant college RB. Cigar Aficionado fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Aug 18, 2015 |
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 01:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 12:39 |
|
|
Always draft a Kubiak RB.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 01:44
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:God I'm terrible, sorry. 0.5 PPR 2 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex, TE I'd probably take Dez and then Hill. If you decide to go RB first, Lynch over Anderson and then I'd pick up Nelson if he was available.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 01:45
|
|
|
edit: wt
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 01:54
|
|
|
Remember the last time Kubiak turned to a dude who went undrafted to lead his backfield and then turned that guy into the best RB in the league? And then last year he plugs a 5'8" 29-year-old career backup player into his system and gets him 1500 yards? Seriously always draft a Kubiak RB.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 01:58
|
|
|
Please do not draft CJ Anderson so I can continue to draft him in the 2nd round. Please and Thank you.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 02:24
|
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:Drafting CJ Anderson first round or even early second round is completely loving stupid. Take it from someone who drafted Montee Ball last year. Psst, the Broncos have a new coaching staff. And the head coach is pretty good at getting career years out of RBs. And he uses only one RB with no committee bullshit. The concern trolling over CJ is reaching self-parody now.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 02:25
|
|
|
Tiptoes posted:Remember the last time Kubiak turned to a dude who went undrafted to lead his backfield and then turned that guy into the best RB in the league? And then last year he plugs a 5'8" 29-year-old career backup player into his system and gets him 1500 yards? Not just Kubiak RBs but Kubiak WRs, QBs, and TEs all own too. He's a great offensive mind that got fired because Andre Johnson and Schaub becoming old and busted. Thanks to John Fox I might be able to get Peyton, Demaryius, Anderson, or Owen Daniels slightly cheaper than their current ADP. Like in my league a lot of people are talking about Jones/Bryant/Brown/OBJ as the first couple WRs off the board when I'm super hyped on Thomas and might be able to get him on my wrap around 14th pick.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 02:30
|
|
|
Benne posted:Psst, the Broncos have a new coaching staff. And the head coach is pretty good at getting career years out of RBs. And he uses only one RB with no committee bullshit. This was Mark Trestman and Jay Cutler last year. When you're talking up the coaches, the schemes, etc over the player itself, you're in trouble. Seriously, draft a 5'8 undrafted third string nobody with stiff competition at his position first round at your own peril. I hope it works out! Cigar Aficionado fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Aug 18, 2015 |
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 02:44
|
|
|
Game of Roto league thread is up for any returning managers/interested parties
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 02:50
|
|
|
kiimo posted:Man I'd love to agree with you but last draft I passed on Luck to select Foles and passed on DeMarco Murray to select Andre Ellington. I am trash. I selected both those players too and won my league. go figure.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 02:51
|
|
|
Ball, Hillman, and Thompson hardly qualify as 'stiff competition'. Ball is garbage and Hillman/Thompson are 3rd down backs at best. If you want to make the argument that Anderson hasn't played a full season and you are concerned about his injury potential...that would be a pretty valid concern. However you seem to key on his 'competition' when many of the top fantasy rbs have way better backups on deck than the Broncos. Also why do you keep bringing up he was undrafted? That is irrelevant at this point. Some of the best fantasy and real life players went undrafted because talent projection is an imperfect science at this point.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 03:00
|
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:This was Mark Trestman and Jay Cutler last year. When you're talking up the coaches, the schemes, etc over the player itself, you're in trouble. Did you even follow the Broncos last year? Montee Ball is trash trash trash. Hillman was alright. But the Broncos LITERALLY had ZERO run game until CJ Anderson was given the ball. Then, he dominated. You know who else was an undrafted player under Kubiak's system? Arian Foster.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 03:00
|
|
|
Without going too deep into my league's wacky keeper system, I need some advice: 2 QB, 6 point passing TD, 0.5 PPR I am already giving up a first to keep Andrew Luck and Eddie Lacy. So, my questions are: 1.) Would you give up a 2nd to keep any of these players: Andre Ellington Mike Evans 2.) Would you give up a 4th to keep any of these players: Jordan Mathews Joseph Randle Jonathan Stewart I think I already know that answers, but just wanted to get some outside input.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 03:29
|
|
|
Evans and Mathews imo
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 03:29
|
|
|
I think you would want to keep the second to draft another QB in a 2 QB league, unless there is reduced scoring. There should be some better players available in the 2nd and 4th if QB's go early (entirely dependent no who you are drafting with). Edit: 6pt passing TD's means you should definitely draft another QB in the 2nd. MrSargent fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Aug 18, 2015 |
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 03:36
|
|
|
89 posted:Did you even follow the Broncos last year? Montee Ball is trash trash trash. Hillman was alright. But the Broncos LITERALLY had ZERO run game until CJ Anderson was given the ball. Then, he dominated. Hillman was great when he was healthy. Ball got hurt almost right away so it's tough to tell how he would have done for the whole season.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 03:38
|
|
|
Mikey Purp posted:Without going too deep into my league's wacky keeper system, I need some advice: Yeah, you need that 2nd for a QB in 2QB w/ 6 point passing TDs. Unless you know that your league is funny and you'll have decent QB2s available in the 3rd, I think I'd keep the 2nd and likely pick best QB available. Matthews for a 4th is pretty nice in a 1QB league, but I have to think with 2QB meaning more QBs are kept and more QBs are picked early, that you might have better options in the 4th. Definitely depends on how many keepers everyone is using and who you expect to be kept, of course. If you do decide to use them, Evans and Matthews are the obvious choices.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 03:52
|
|
|
I have to agree. Draft CJA in the 2nd at your own risk. If you can't find a more reliable option you aren't looking very hard. Redraft is all about minimizing risk. The upside isn't there when compared to others with better job security.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:08
|
|
|
It's even worse than that, he's going in the 1st. Currently 9 overall on Fantasy Pros, RB6. Being drafted ahead of Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, ODB, Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, Demarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Jordy Nelson, and AJ Green. We have this discussion every year. It's not that I wouldn't want CJ on my team, but not in the first. You don't bank on a career year from a 1st round pick. You can replace Anderson with Spiller and I made this same argument two years ago. It actually feels very familiar, because you can take Chip Kelly RB1 and Forte at the 1st round turn this year too!
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:18
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:Alrighty, here's the updated excel sheet. Columns I added are highlighted. You should be able to copy-paste any new data array into here and have it work, but you will need to sort the data (i.e. the unlighted bits) by "Average" (column S). Awesome. I am phone posting but will check it out tomorrow.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:30
|
|
|
Pfft. "Minimizing risk" only gets you so far. You have to adapt quickly in this game and half of the fun for me is being willing to go out on a limb for certain guys. RBs are just inherently risky to begin with. Even Eddie Lacy could wind up getting a high ankle sprain and become a liability. But when I look at CJA's three-down ability and Kubiak's excellent running games over the last several years, I see a guy who could wind up being the #1 RB at the end of the year. I have zero problem taking a player like that in the first.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:41
|
|
|
Minimizing risk is crucial, however it's completely laughable when someone brings it up in the same post they advocate drafting a 30 year old rb.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:43
|
|
|
You know what's fun? Figuring out WTF you're going to do in a 16 team half PPR league with 5 IDP slots. So far the answer seems to be panic.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:49
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:You know what's fun? Figuring out WTF you're going to do in a 16 team half PPR league with 5 IDP slots. So far the answer seems to be panic. Take Sankey that is what you do
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:49
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:You know what's fun? Figuring out WTF you're going to do in a 16 team half PPR league with 5 IDP slots. So far the answer seems to be panic. The correct answer is embrace the chaos because I've done IDP for like half a decade and there's one rule to IDP. No matter what you do, you're wrong (except for one thing, which I won't tell you  )
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:52
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:The correct answer is embrace the chaos because I've done IDP for like half a decade and there's one rule to IDP. No matter what you do, you're wrong (except for one thing, which I won't tell you If that one thing is what I think it is don't worry you don't have to.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:58
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:If that one thing is what I think it is don't worry you don't have to. (it's actually two things welcome to hell)
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 04:59
|
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:Hillman was great when he was healthy. Ball got hurt almost right away so it's tough to tell how he would have done for the whole season. Ball doesn't have a lot of the shiftiness or stoutness that other backs have which enables them to shed tacklers and pick up quick yards at the NFL level. He's a big plodder that did well in college because Russell Wilson was his QB and he had literally the biggest line in college football that year. He's just average and will probably be overshadowed by Hillman and Anderson until the Broncos finally cut bait.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 05:00
|
|
|
Why draft rbs in the first 2 rounds anyway? Are we playing in 1980s? Give me WR all day. He says after draft AP 1.01 last year.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 05:08
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:(it's actually two things welcome to hell) I figured out the second before I got the first. The third thing was pretty cool though.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 05:28
|
|
|
It's draft DeAndre Levy and I did that and I still came in last place.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 05:33
|
|
|
Here's my $100 work league draft: QB: Cam Newton RB1: E. Lacy RB2: Melvin Gordon WR 1: C. Johnson WR 2: K. Benjamin TE: J. Witten Flex: S. Watkins Def: Jets K: M. Prater BENCH WR: K. Allen RB: T. Coleman RB: D. Martin WR. L. Fitzgerald RB: B. Sankey QB: Eli. Manning WR: P. Harvin
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 06:04
|
|
|
How many teams/where did you pick? Sankey and Harvin will be on the waiver wire by week four. Gordon was a bit shaky throughout camp and in week one but Martin has apparently been usable in camp so that's somewhat mitigated. I like Fitz more than most this year so he's a great option as a WR5. Your WRs are strong and your RBs are shaky, in short. Also your TE situation is questionable.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 06:09
|
|
|
Ten people. Picked 2nd. Grabbed Lacy with my 1st pick. I didn't like the Gordon pick but panicked and said gently caress it. Shady went right off the board before my pick. Yeah I'm not sure about my RBs which has me nervous. I dunno, it was fun though.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 06:15
|
|
|
kiimo posted:After removing keepers, this is my overall list at the top and it is horrifying. Who do you guys think should move up the list? I have additional picks after trading away players from last team's poo poo house team who I re-named Nick Foles and the Assholes. Now I have Sammy Watkins as my keeper (!) and I think I'm going to be hosed again. I just made a crazy trade. I was selected to pick 6th out of these guys. I had an extra second round pick (the last pick of the round). I traded that to a guy who kept Adrian Peterson to switch from 6 to 1. Bold? Stupid? I feel like at 6 a distinct possibility is that only TIER 3 guys are left, this way I get the only TIER 1 player on the board in Jamaal Charles. It basically cost me a Carlos Hyde or something to do it. I'm already getting called out for it. Did I go too far? kiimo fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Aug 18, 2015 |
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 06:55
|
|
|
You would have been fine at 6. Giving up a 2nd round pick to move up 5 spots in the first makes no sense. You traded a first and a second round pick for a first round pick.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 11:32
|
|
|
I'm relatively unbiased about CJA, but all things aside he was the best Denver back all-around (specifically pass protection) AND was the highest scoring fantasy RB after assuming the starting role. And, of course as stated, all of this pre-Kubiak.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 12:53
|
|
|
Anyone here ever do a Yahoo Pro ($20) public league? I figured I'd give it a shot. I'm hoping the competition is terrible.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 13:02
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 12:39 |
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Awesome. I am phone posting but will check it out tomorrow. Cool. Here's a bit more about that Kernel Density Estimation that I said would probably be my preferred method of discretizing. We essentially just make density plots of the projected player values (i.e. see where players are clustered together and where there are gaps between them), then find the local minimums (i.e. the gaps) and use those as cutoffs. There's a "bandwidth" factor that determines how "smooth" the density curve is. For example, with a very conservative bandwidth...  ... we basically just see quarterbacks divided into "starters" and "backups", with a gap between them (ignore the values on the x-axis - those are to help me calculate local minimums later. Better quarterbacks are to the right). But when we dial up the sensitivity (i.e. lower the bandwidth) on the same data...  ... we can see a series of peaks and valleys that we can use as "natural" tier breaks. Then we just calculate where those tier breaks are and bin players using those cutoffs. (note: this was all done in python - I can give you the code if you want it) I've posted a side-by-side comparison of this "KDE" method versus the previous "moving pooled variance" method I gave you to use in excel. The differences are slight, but definitely present. You can evaluate for yourself and tell me what you like better.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2015 13:28
|
|
