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computer parts posted:I think Namibia isn't doing too bad but they also have a giant desert to keep people away. Cape Verde seems like heaven compared to life in Angola and mostly everywhere else in the mainland.
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# ? Jul 19, 2015 14:54 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:45 |
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R. Mute posted:Kagame's also working towards extending the allowed terms in office, isn't he? He's still pretending that's not what he's interested in, but party's pushing 'spontaneous' petitions to call for a constitutional change. Unsurprisingly considering Rwanda's political climate, they're ostensibly getting massive amounts of support - so it looks like it's a forgone conclusion. The main difference with Burundi being that the West isn't making as much of a fuss about Rwanda as it is about Burundi. A pretty prominent Africa commentator in Belgium raised this point in an op-ed piece this morning, but couldn't really find a reason for the difference in approach towards both countries. Personally, I feel like the donor countries are still very wary about getting involved in Rwandan politics, still having the genocide on their minds. It's easier to just let Rwanda be than to possibly gently caress something up. I think part of it has to do with concerns that in Burundi third-termism is a destabilizing concern, Nkurunziza's grip on power is nowhere near as absolute as Kagame's and attempting to game the system to his advantage is widening political cleavages in such that the security situation is at threat - the situation in Rwanda is markedly different as Kagame's third term has barely met with a peep of opposition so the concern here is more about establishing a healthy democratic process rather than preventing a humanitarian crisis. There have been some mumbled complaints from donor countries about Kagame's plans to go after a third term, it may mean some slashed funding when he goes ahead with it but this is hardly something to dissuade Kagame who has been on the donor naughty books for the last few years after the Congo Group of Experts accused him of directly funding armed groups in the DRC. There has been some news in regards to this with the Rwandan parliament voting 99% in favour of a referendum on eliminating term limits, arguably this is quite smart as a popular referendum (which Kagame would undoubtedly win) is a hard thing for donor countries to discount as "undemocratic". Rwanda will probably play out a bit like Uganda back in 2005, a lot of gnashing of teeth and complaints from donors that eventually die down when people remember the regional importance of the nation in question and decide that it's better to stay on their good side. In contrast, the vagueness about whether or not Joseph Kabila in the DRC will go after a third-term is considered a much much bigger concern. He didn't make it much of a secret that he was contemplating it at the end of last year which sparked protests violently suppressed by the police and army earlier this year, the unravelling situation in Burundi and the successful street protests in Burkina Faso against Blaise Compaore's third term plans in October of last year seem to have given him cold feet though and he has publicly denied he wants a third term - not that many people believe him though. Kabila's grip on power again is nowhere near absolute and the idea of him getting a third term has proved massively unpopular, even among members of his own party and the ruling clique around him. Donor countries have been applying huge amounts of pressure to get him to stand down at the end of his current term as a third term will undoubtedly prompt a political crisis that may reverse some of the gains the UN has made in the East of the country working alongside the Congolese armed forces. Again, the focus is on the security situation primarily with the health of democratic institutions being a concern but one that takes second place to the threat of violence. For example Denis Sassou Nguesso in the Republic of the Congo (Brazzaville) is currently working to eliminate term limits so he can run again - but he's already been in power for 31 of the last 36 years (a lot of it before the introduction of the current constitution) so no one is kicking up much of a fuss. See also Faure Gnassingbe in Togo getting a third term earlier in the year with barely anyone batting an eye, his family have ruled the country since 1967 so no one was much surprised.
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# ? Jul 19, 2015 16:17 |
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The so-called "decoupage," or provincial splitting, was made official in the DRC last week. Here's the new provincial map: Notably, Orientale (northeast) was split into four provinces, Equateur (northwest) into five, and Katanga (southeast) into four. Orientale was the most populous province and the largest gold-mining region, while Katanga was the center of the copper mining industry. The split is probably going to have little effect on the average resident because most of the provinces are just as terrible at providing basic services as the federal government, but apparently Kabila pushed it through to weaken governors who would challenge him in the 2016 election. In Orientale, where I'm currently living, the parliamentarians in each new province will have to appoint interim governors, yet there's no money to hold proper elections after that. Also, I highly recommend Congo: The Epic History of a People by David van Reybrouck for anyone interested in the country's history. There's not much out there about the current political situation bar stuff in Foreign Affairs, but Radio Okapi is far and away the best news source in the country.
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# ? Jul 19, 2015 19:13 |
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surrender posted:Also, I highly recommend Congo: The Epic History of a People by David van Reybrouck for anyone interested in the country's history. There's not much out there about the current political situation bar stuff in Foreign Affairs, but Radio Okapi is far and away the best news source in the country. This is a good book and I second this Other good source of Congo political stuff is Congo Siasa, horrible looking blog run by Jason Stearns probably best known for writing Dancing in the Glory of Monsters but is big old wonk who was also a member of the Congo Group of Experts for a while. surrender, hows the FDLR disarmament thing being received in your neck of the woods - most of them are getting shunted to Kisangani aren't they?
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# ? Jul 19, 2015 19:22 |
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edit is not quote dummy
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# ? Jul 19, 2015 19:23 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:This is a good book and I second this Well, I'm working at the military base that's housing the rebels It's actually not too bad. The move was pushed back a few times due to security concerns, but they're been here for a while (8 months? I'm not sure) without any issues. There are over 800 people in the camp right now - about 160 rebels with their wives and children. I had the opportunity to tour the camp when the US ambassador visited a couple of months ago. It's not an ideal situation, of course, but they're living in reasonably well-built barracks with electricity and a clinic. The UN is providing food and medical supplies, and some people are even growing a few crops. The rebels and their families are free to go back to Rwanda at any time, but as of the time of my tour, only one family has taken that offer. They (probably rightly) fear discrimination, if not outright punishment, if they go back. Hell, there was a bigger uproar when a new general of Tutsi descent was assigned to Kisangani as part of this year's military reorganization. The locals still aren't too happy about 2001-02. edit: Thanks for the blog link! It's kind of tough to keep up with news from the rest of the country. I try to listen to Okapi every once in a while, but my French is still poor. curried lamb of God fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Jul 19, 2015 |
# ? Jul 19, 2015 20:08 |
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Barack Hussein Obama is returning to his country of birth tomorrow to receive new instructions from the secret Kenyan Muslim Communist cabal. This is the first time Obama will be visiting Kenya, not for a lack of opportunities - he visited neighbouring Tanzania in 2013 but decided against a visit to Kenya, something interpreted regionally as a very deliberate snub to President Kenyatta who was at the time indicted by the ICC for allegedly funding a Kikuyu ethnic militia during the 2007/2008 Kenyan Post Election Violence (PEV). Kenyatta's trial has subsequently collapsed amid mutual accusations of bad faith from both sides, the ICC has attacked the Kenyan government for withholding information they requested and Kenya has attacked the ICC for proceeding with a trial solely on witness testimony (most of which was retracted after the initial indictment - some after the witnesses where threatened, some after it became evidence witnesses where unreliable). Though Kenyatta's trial collapsed Vice President William Ruto is still facing charges, the White House has ruled out Obama meeting him - Kerry snubbed him earlier this year as well during his recent visit in May, much to Ruto's anger. Not really surprising especially when you consider that a witness in the trial recently turned up hacked to pieces. In a bit of a face saving exercise he's decided to double down on a populist religious line and has been doing a bit of pulpit bashing condemning Obama's stance on same sex marriage and vowing to stand firm against foreign pressure to decriminalise homosexuality. Snippet: Daily Nation posted:“Homosexuality is against the plan of God, God did not create man and woman so that men would marry men and women marry women,” said the Deputy President on Sunday at the Africa Inland Church (AIC) Ziwani in Nairobi. Seems to be working well enough as this has suddenly become an issue around the visit with lots of international media carrying the story. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Jul 23, 2015 |
# ? Jul 23, 2015 23:29 |
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Also, polls are closed in Burundi and counting is underway. The inter-party talks chaired by Uganda have been temporarily suspended but are due to resume. Whether or not they have anything to discuss after the results are announced is another issue. And as per Reuters, the EU has gone public that they are ready to impose sanctions if/when the inevitable is announced: Reuters posted:"The European Union is preparing ... to adopt, if necessary, targeted restrictive measures against those whose actions led to acts of violence, repression and serious human rights abuses or hinder the search for a political solution," Mogherini said in a statement.
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# ? Jul 23, 2015 23:33 |
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The US is also planning to review aid for Burundi. Reuters posted:"Over the next couple of months we will be reviewing very carefully the level of our assistance, what programs will be continued or not," Ambassador Dawn Liberi told Reuters, adding it would be driven by policy concerns and administrative issues. It seems odd that she doesn't explicitly lay out that it will affect the military aid, the article discusses how much we give them but then kind of focuses on the health aid. the paradigm shift fucked around with this message at 11:35 on Jul 24, 2015 |
# ? Jul 24, 2015 11:32 |
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E: wrong thread
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# ? Jul 24, 2015 20:37 |
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Grats to Pierre Nkurunziza on winning a third term
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# ? Jul 24, 2015 21:57 |
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the_paradigm_shift posted:The US is also planning to review aid for Burundi. The US has threatened to cut military aid, it's a bit of grey area though as the military (as far I have seen) have generally not been implicated in the violence with most of the accusations of rights abuses being laid at the feet of the police and imbonerakure. The military are generally seen as a stabilizing force, ethnic quotas have ensured representation from both communities and the post-conflict military is generally considered a bit of a success in terms rebel reintegration, I think there are fears that cutting foreign aid to the military could have knock-on effects to their relative impartiality in politics and general cohesion - I mean there was an attempted military coup only a few months ago. Also, Burundi are currently the force leader and the second largest contributor (about 25% of troops) to AMISOM, the African Union Mission to Somalia. If Burundi pulls out their troops in protest to foreign military aid cuts (or because they can not afford to continue to participate) the other member states would have to pick up the slack, something not many people are particularly keen on considering Al-Shabaab's recent attacks in AMISOM contributing countries like Kenya. Here's an article in more detail from a Great Lakes wonk published in *shudder* the washington post of all places
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# ? Jul 24, 2015 22:00 |
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Jagchosis posted:Grats to Pierre Nkurunziza on winning a third term
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# ? Jul 24, 2015 22:13 |
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Jagchosis posted:Grats to Pierre Nkurunziza on winning a third term I, for one, never doubted the glorious leader.
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# ? Jul 25, 2015 05:14 |
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So what's going on with those nascent border conflicts in South Sudan? Are the neghbouring countries nibbling off their preferred bits during the civil war, or are they worried about destabilising the area further or what?
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# ? Jul 25, 2015 16:18 |
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V. Illych L. posted:So what's going on with those nascent border conflicts in South Sudan? Are the neighbouring countries nibbling off their preferred bits during the civil war, or are they worried about destabilising the area further or what? I haven't really heard much about the border disputes with Kenya which have always taken a back seat to the much more divisive border disputes with Sudan. For reference, here's a handy map showing the various Sudanese border disputes: The big one is Abyei, which has been a major source of contention between South Sudan and Sudan since before independence. In the run up to independence there was a major dispute about who should have control of Abyei - both parties have nominally agreed that the future of the region is to be decided by a referendum. The issue is who gets to vote in the referendum; South Sudan believes that only permanent residents should be allowed to vote (who are overwhelmingly Ngok Dinka, a subset of the one of the largest ethnic groups in South Sudan) while Sudan also believes the vote should be extended to the nomadic Misseriya Arab's who graze their cattle in Abyei in the summer months but are not permanently resident. After a series of clashes between the respective armed forces of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011 an agreement was signed in Addis Ababa to demilitarize the area and allow a UN mandated monitoring mission to oversee the truce, at the moment I think there are about 4,000 odd troops deployed by Ehiopia in Abyeia under the banner of the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) who have been keeping the peace. Sudan isn't going to wade into that any time soon because of the possible international implications. The area is administered by a temporary autonomous body who have held their own referendum on the issue back in 2013 that was internationally ignored (as it excluded the Misseriya). Arguably the current situation is favourable to Sudan as it puts UNISFA in the place of attempting to keep the peace between the two communities, there are still rolling clashes every grazing season, and allows them to focus their troops elsewhere. Another major issue surrounding the Abyei problem is what exactly constituted Abyei. This was settled in 2009 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague which defined it's boundaries. Massive map below showing how Abyei has been gradually redefined over the years as part of the border negotiation: Now the big issue here is that the 2009 arbitration notably cuts out Heglig in the East. Why is this an issue? Well, here's another map! Yep, Oil. And lots of it. Heglig was at the centre of a major crisis back in 2012 that you could describe as war (if you're being generous) that saw Sudan and South Sudan directly combat each other over control of the oilfield. The conflict was rooted in bitter negotiations over oil fees, I mentioned it briefly earlier but South Sudan relies on Sudan to transport it's oil for export and increasing anger over transport fees and the failure of post-independence negotiations to settle the issue was a major motivator for South Sudan to move against Heglig. The war/skirmish (whatever) was a bit of catastrophe for South Sudan economically though, Sudan responded not only with military force but also by completely shutting down South Sudan's access to their oil network - preventing them from exporting a single barrel and almost completely crashing the South Sudanese economy. Eventually, on 27th September 2012 an agreement was reached between Sudan and South Sudan that halted the violence and reached something of an agreement on the border issue - not the demarcation of the border but the establishment of a 10km DMZ on either side that would be monitored by UNISFA (who where already in the area anyway). The final demarcation of the border is to be decided by a technocratic panel set up by the AU but god knows how long that will take. For reference here's a map with the DMZ marked: Both sides have not exactly stuck to the DMZ though, they move troops in and out of it all the time and the monitoring mission has found it difficult actually keeping track of what is happening so it is a bit of a mess - but it does seem to have stabilized the situation a bit and at least stopped direct military confrontation like in 2012. The DMZ agreement did not go down well in South Sudan and I've seen some people make a connection with it and the ongoing rebellion, the idea that Kiir has abandoned the people in the DBZ/contested regions under Sudanese control has apparently been used as a mobilizing force by the rebels. The other big area way in the west, Kafia Kingi, has been in the news recently as reports seem to indicate that the LRA leadership is hiding out there. Yes, Kony and all that. Also in the news South Sudan-wise, it seems there has been a bit of a split in the SLPM-IO as that assessment I posted earlier theorized: Radio Tamazuj posted:Political and military differences have led to a major split within the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO), prompting the group's leader Riek Machar to relieve two of his top commanders. Gatdet is a major military commander and a repeat rebel, he's a pretty important figure in terms of the troops he can deliver to the SPLM-IO so him splitting off will most like damage them in military terms. Having another rebel leader running around isn't great news though...
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# ? Jul 25, 2015 20:22 |
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So, Obama actually met Ruto in Kenya. You know, the guy currently up in front of the ICC...
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# ? Jul 26, 2015 15:20 |
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This is like when all the Cuban exiles flipped their poo poo when Obama shook hands with Raul Castro. Just because you greet someone cordially doesn't mean you approve of everything they've ever done.
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# ? Jul 26, 2015 16:06 |
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PT6A posted:This is like when all the Cuban exiles flipped their poo poo when Obama shook hands with Raul Castro. Just because you greet someone cordially doesn't mean you approve of everything they've ever done. True, but I still think avoiding being photographed shaking hands with someone actively being tried for crimes against humanity is advisable - especially considering the fact the US has been supporting the ICC in Africa against a growing tide of criticism. It may have been outside of the US's control but it's still an awkward situation for sure
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# ? Jul 26, 2015 16:29 |
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Also, some twitter people are mad at France24 for changing a headline to a story they posted online after the Office of the President in Burundi complained about it on twitter of all places The complaint: They changed it from Low Participation, Violence, Criticisms: The Presidential elections in Burundi aren't fooling anyone to Presidential Elections: The Opposition denounce a "masquerade" A letter of thanks posted shortly after the change was made: The article in question
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# ? Jul 26, 2015 16:47 |
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Note that Obama is frowning in all of those photos. He and his team are aware of the long-term possible uses of them (though frankly that's overestimating the public knowledge of the Republican base).
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# ? Jul 26, 2015 18:04 |
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Hey so even though Diskendo Fox posted in this thread gently caress goons for letting it die. Brief update to try to spur its revival: Major human rights activist in Burundi that was critical of Pres. Nkurunziza's third term was critically wounded in a motorcycle attack assassination attempt, which follows the murder of the president's personal security chief, Gen Adolphe Nshimirimana. Looks like Burundi is spiraling towards sporadic violence, at a minimum
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# ? Aug 5, 2015 09:54 |
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Jagchosis posted:Hey so even though Diskendo Fox posted in this thread gently caress goons for letting it die. Brief update to try to spur its revival: I've been meaning to post in this for like a week but was to sickly to effort post. In other Burundi news there has been a major split in the opposition who where previously unified against a third term. Agathon Rwasa, who officially came second in the presidential election even though he boycotted the poll, took his seat in parliament alongside his party and was elected deputy speaker with the support of Nkurunziza's CND-FDD indicated some kind of back room deal was probably worked out. Its a move which has somewhat undermined the oppositions negotiating power in the ongoing inter party talks as you can imagine.
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# ? Aug 5, 2015 10:20 |
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In some good news the Nigerian army freed more boko haram victims: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33754769 Edit: is the president of Uganda still trying to mediate or did he give up around the election? the paradigm shift fucked around with this message at 10:29 on Aug 5, 2015 |
# ? Aug 5, 2015 10:23 |
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surrender posted:The so-called "decoupage," or provincial splitting, was made official in the DRC last week. Here's the new provincial map: The feature article in the latest NLR is also pretty good.
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# ? Aug 5, 2015 10:53 |
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the_paradigm_shift posted:In some good news the Nigerian army freed more boko haram victims: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33754769 Museveni himself has backed away from them and appointed another government official to continue the talks, they are currently suspended though with no progress and it's not looking good for their resumption any time soon - the continuing attacks from still mysterious groups and the government striking a deal with a section of the opposition puts them in a strong position to push ahead.
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# ? Aug 5, 2015 11:24 |
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Jagchosis posted:Hey so even though Diskendo Fox posted in this thread gently caress goons for letting it die. ??? Ouch, I wasn't aware that was my reputation now. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 13:12 on Aug 5, 2015 |
# ? Aug 5, 2015 13:08 |
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Quick South Sudan update. The newest round of peace talks have been convened as of yesterday in Addis Ababa under the meditation of IGAD-Plus; the newly expanded international meditation group that includes Representatives of IGAD (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda), Representatives of the High Level African Union Ad-hoc Committee on South Sudan (Algeria, Chad, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa) as well as representatives from the EU, China, UK, USA, Norway and the UN. The current talks have a deadline of August 17th and there have been repeated statements from various figures, including Obama, that if the talks fail a new stricter round of sanctions will be imposed on both the Government of South Sudan and the SPLM-IO. The major belligerents have been gathered to discuss the proposed IGAD Compromise Peace Agreement which they published at the end of July. If you are a nerd like me full pdf here but here are the choice extracts and major bones of contention: IGAD Compromise Peace Agreement posted:1. Establishment, Seat and Term of TGoNU Nudging the percentage points in their favour of course will be a primary aim for both parties but the idea of effectively handing control of the three major rebellious states to the SPLM-IO has infuriated the government (the fact these are all major oil producing states may have some bearing on that). Shortly after the IGAD-Plus proposal was published President Kiir shot back with an official letter of complaint, attacking the Proposal and what he interpreted as threats from the international community to accept it "or else" . Full scan here, selected snippets below: President Kiir posted:The decision making process in the Council of Ministers at the national level and the structure and composition of state governments in the conflict-affected states (Upper Nile, Jonglei & Unity states) as per the clauses; 10 and 15 of Chapter 1 respectively, pose huge challenges to the peace process. Such proposals suggest undeclared Confederation structure for South Sudan, which, if applied as it is, would undermine the sovereign authority of the independent South Sudan and would prepare a ground for the three regions of Bahr El Ghazal, Equatoria and Upper Nile to seriously demand for independent entities of their own in the short term. Thus, this would be the end of South Sudan and would constitute a beginning for the real conflict that would put the region on the real historical predicament... The eminent result is the total disintegration of the country! And let it be on record that; our government will not encourage such a move. Sure enough early word out of the peace talks, leaked by sources (I wonder who) to VOA confirms the Government's general unhappiness with the IGAD-Plus proposal: VOA posted:A source at the talks, who asked not to be named, said the government asked that it be given 70 percent of seats and portfolios in the proposed transitional government, that the armed opposition group led by former vice president Riek Machar be given 20 percent and other political parties 10 percent. The "reincorporation" of detainees mentioned has to do with Pagan Amum re-entering the government, I posted a more detailed article about that a little bit earlier. The SPLM-IO's demands for 70% of the seats seems pretty counter-productive, it's hard to see how the two parties can be negotiated to a crompose in one week - some of the early optimism that the SPLM-IO political leadership is now more willing to hammer out an agreement may have been a bit premature. Also, the official parliamentary opposition (the SPLM-DC) who have stuck to politics and steered clear of the conflict where invited to the conference but the Government denied them travel visas. Not exactly a fantastic sign. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Aug 8, 2015 |
# ? Aug 8, 2015 19:37 |
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NM, they're angry that the international community is pressuring them, still silly but more understandable. My other point still stands because it almost reads like a plea to the opposition to ignore this deal and wait until the government makes their own deal. I dunno, just feels scummy. Hopefully everyone is sick of it and will continue to try, but honestly I thought the South Sudan issues were tribal not oil until this thread so I dunno anything clearly. the paradigm shift fucked around with this message at 12:50 on Aug 9, 2015 |
# ? Aug 9, 2015 12:43 |
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News out of Nigeria is that Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, may have been ousted from his position - according to Chad anywayFrance24 posted:Chad’s President Idriss Déby declared Tuesday that efforts to combat neighbouring Nigeria’s Boko Haram jihadists had succeeded in “decapitating” the group and would be wrapped up “by the end of the year”. Shekau has been notably absent in the last two videos released by Boko Haram (both of them released under their new branding of Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyyah, replacing their old formal name of Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihad). This lead to a lot of speculation he may be injured or has gone underground as Boko Haram shifts back to more conventional smash and grab tactics after the somewhat successful military operation by the new regional alliance against territory under their control. Of course, Déby could just be completely making this up - rumours have been swirling for a while and taking advantage of the talk to big up the effectiveness of their operations clearly has it's benefits. Ceasefire talks involving Déby have a bit of a track record of possibly being complete fiction. Also, Buhari has given the military three months to sort this whole insurgency thing out. No pressure guys. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Aug 13, 2015 |
# ? Aug 13, 2015 23:32 |
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Interesting piece via African Arguments that gives some of the only detail I've seen about the supposed new leader of Boko Haram:Who is Boko Haram’s ‘new leader’? posted:If this who I think it is then this news is significant. First of all, his real name is Muhammad Daud. He is said to be about 38 years old and is a Shuwa Arab from Maiduguri with a Kanambu mother from Chad. He is one of the earliest students of Muhammad Yusuf, Boko Haram’s original leader, and is said to have been one of the few amongst the close circle of Yusuf’s students that disagreed with the 2009 Uprising in which the group launched attacks on Nigerian security forces. Daud apparently argued that Boko Haram was not yet strong enough to take over the area. If true this could be a signal of an internal feud inside Boko Haram reminiscent of the Hassan Dahir Aweys/Godane split in al-Shabaab, similarily fuelled by internal discontent with re-aligning the movement to more internationalist jihadi aims.
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# ? Aug 15, 2015 19:06 |
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South Sudan wise things aren't exactly going well. A meeting of the "Front Line States", basically IGAD without the other international bodies, in Kampala earlier this week seems to have yielded some backing for the Government of South Sudan's demands in regards to power-sharing in the major rebellious states:Sudan Tribune posted:The group calling itself the “Front-line States” composed of Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan were invited for a meeting to Entebbe, Uganda, by president Yoweri Museveni. Riek Machar, leader of the SPLM-IO, has blasted these proposals publicly - specifically blaming Museveni who has militarily supported Kiir's government since day one. The deadline of August 17th is on the horizon and this set-back makes it pretty unlikely that the talks will conclude productively. To add even more woes to the process Machar's position as leader of the SPLM-IO seems to be in jeopardy. I mentioned earlier that he had dismissed prominent repeat rebel Peter Gatdet from his command, the initial concern was that Gatdet would form a splinter group but it seems he has instead used his influence to try to oust Machar from his position as leader with the aim of scuttling the peace talks. Full pdf here: quote:We reject any peace agreement that includes President Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar in the leadership of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU). The two leaders have become symbols of hate and conflict and are obstacles to peace as both leaders wrangle over who should lead. Similarly the two communities of Nuer and Dinka have bcome so polarized and divided to the extent that one community will reject the leadership of the other. Other sons and daughters of South Sudan should be allowed to lead during the transitional period and both President Kiir and Dr. Riek should wait for the next coming elections and contest for the presidency if they so desire. If this should not be the case then we suggest that a military led Transitional government comprising officers from both parties be formed until next elections are conducted. How much support the dismissed leaders can muster in the movement is questionable but it is a worrying sign of a significant split within the movement, rather than manifesting through a splinter group it looks like it will play out as a power play within the group itself. Sure enough it looks like hawks in the Government of South Sudan are using the signs of a possible split to try to scupper the peace talks by recalling their negotiation team: VOA posted:Cabinet Affairs Minister Martin Elia Lomoro told reporters in Juba the government has also decided to recall the entire negotiating team from Addis. Some doubt there but another source seems to has spoken to press backing up the claims by Lomoro Radio Tamazuj posted:The Council of Ministers has announced their decision to suspend the South Sudanese government's participation at the peace talks in Addis Ababa with the armed opposition leadership, led by former Vice-President Riek Machar. It requested President Salva Kiir not to travel to Ethiopia, despite mounting global pressure on him and Machar to reach their deal by Monday 17 August, and international threats of sanctions. Not looking good is it.
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# ? Aug 15, 2015 19:58 |
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What's the current state in Mali vis-a-vis the whole Taureg/Jihadist situation anyway? Also people should watch the movie Timbuktu, it's great
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# ? Aug 16, 2015 03:14 |
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Whorelord posted:What's the current state in Mali vis-a-vis the whole Taureg/Jihadist situation anyway? Last I checked the peace deal between Mali and the Tuaregs has been holding up while Jihadist groups have conducted sporadic attacks on government checkpoints in the periphery. This was in July and I doubt the situation has changed much.
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# ? Aug 16, 2015 03:19 |
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Thanks for updating is thread again. It's such a fascinating continent politically. While it is fairly basic stuff and not very investigative, the BBC World Service gives plenty of coverage to continent-wide issues and elections.
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# ? Aug 17, 2015 09:20 |
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The South Sudan deadline has passed with no final deal. Machar has signed as has Pagan Amum, the "rehabilitated" detainee who was reinstated into the ruling party recently, but Kiir has not signed. He's asking for a 15 day extension for "consultations" with his party - ostensively to convince hawks in his government to accept the deal.
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# ? Aug 18, 2015 08:51 |
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Every time I try to get a grip on the history and (political) factions in a region of Africa my head starts spinning due to the complexity of it all. Thanks for clearing up at least some of the ongoing conflicts.
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# ? Aug 18, 2015 10:06 |
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IGAD has published the final treaty text signed by Machar that's still awaiting Kiir's signature. Seems Kiir did manage to make some inroads on some of the more contentious clauses. I think it's worth doing a quick side by side from the initial IGAD-Plus proposal to the final version for anyone interested in this kind of thing:Original text posted:15.1. State Governments in the States most affected by the current conflict in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile shall be reconstituted. Final Text posted:15.1. Not later than one month of the commencement of the Transitional Period, Transitional Governors of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states shall be appointed for the duration of the Transition. For two of the Governors position in Upper Nile and Unity States, the South Sudan Armed Opposition shall nominate the candidates which the President shall appointrespectively. The GRSS will nominate the Governor of Jonglei State. So the government has managed to secure Governorship of one out of three "conflict states" and has had the power-sharing formula for these states drastically rewritten to favour them (the national formula in the original document stays the same) but at the expense of introducing general power sharing in all other state governments - something not included in the original document. One of the more interesting changes is in another contentious clause, clause 5 chapter II, which covers the demilitarization of the capital. Again a quick side by side: Original text posted:The National Capital, Juba, which is the seat of TGoNU, shall be demilitarised within ninety(90) days from the signing of this Agreement in order to create conducive conditions for the formation of the TGoNU and the return of the SPLM/A-IO and SPLM Leaders (Former Detainees) to Juba. Consequently, Juba shall be designated as a Special Arrangement Area(SAA). Final text posted:5.1 All military forces within Juba shall be redeployed outside a radius of 25km from the center of the national capital beginning thirty (30) days after the signing of this Agreement and complete after ninety (90) days. The demarcation of the area shall be agreed during the PCTSA workshop. Exceptions to this provision are as follows: Interesting all reference to a neutral foreign deployment under IGAD/AU/UN authority has been scrubbed and replaced with reference to a new unified force to police both the capital and other contentious cities and towns - something not floated in the original document. I wonder if opposition fear of likely Ugandan involvement in any "neutral" force, which would have been pretty likely, was the driving force behind scrubbing that clause. Specific reference to a Vice Presidential guard has been removed, under the proposed system the Vice Presidency would go to the SPLM-IO - I'm unsure if that's covered in "Presidential Guards" or if that has been dropped. Language isn't the clearest. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Aug 19, 2015 |
# ? Aug 19, 2015 22:16 |
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Kiir signed the peace deal. It's peace well if you ignore the generals who have refused to recognise the deal Kiir only signed after being a bit of a dick though BBC posted:And then in a long, slow speech, pausing regularly to remove his glasses and wipe his face, it wasn't quite clear if President Kiir was going to sign the deal or not.
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# ? Aug 26, 2015 22:18 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:45 |
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So is this gonna end jack poo poo with the war because this feels like an even wetter fart than Libya's deal
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 03:35 |