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 Looks like the national team went home after lunch.
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Aug 20, 2015 14:12
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| # ? May 17, 2024 15:17 |
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How will the recent North Korea vs South Korea developments affect China's economy, if at all?
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Aug 21, 2015 10:27
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They won't. NK and SK have done this an average of once every two years since 1953. The last time they shot at each other was like four or five years ago so this is actually calmer than usual.
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Aug 21, 2015 11:17
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I live on the border. When things get really tense, they set up machine gun nests downtown. There are no machine gun nests.
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Aug 21, 2015 15:54
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TheBalor posted:I live on the border. When things get really tense, they set up machine gun nests downtown. There are no machine gun nests. I thought NK didn't have internet how are you posting?
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Aug 21, 2015 16:27
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cheesetriangles posted:I thought NK didn't have internet how are you posting? Potato router.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:42
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Kimchi cables.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:54
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With pure juche alone.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:56
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cheesetriangles posted:I thought NK didn't have internet how are you posting? Does he mean they set up MG nests in SK?
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Aug 21, 2015 17:09
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Thanks China for ensuring that my retirement will likely never occur
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Aug 21, 2015 17:15
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So what the gently caress is going on with the Chinese economy? Their stock markets are in free fall and they underwent a relatively huge devaluation but when you look at the GDP numbers everything is positive. So I guess some people are in a back room with the real economic numbers and are trying to furiously pull levers to right a ship that supposedly is doing just fine? So either the levers are going to work and the economy turns around and realigns with the fake numbers or the eventual correction is just going to be really nasty.
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Aug 21, 2015 18:00
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It's also possible that what they thought were the real numbers were as fake as what they say the real numbers are and they only beginning to grasp the depth of the problem.
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Aug 21, 2015 18:21
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Mozi posted:It's also possible that what they thought were the real numbers were as fake as what they say the real numbers are and they only beginning to grasp the depth of the problem. I think just for the sake of nonstupidity there's got to be a set of real numbers somewhere and somebody or a set of people know it and have access.
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Aug 21, 2015 18:40
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Vladimir Putin posted:I think just for the sake of nonstupidity there's got to be a set of real numbers somewhere and somebody or a set of people know it and have access. Most likely it's extremely localized. I doubt anyone above the county level knows what the real numbers are, or knows who to talk to in order to get them. The end result of this is that no one group actually knows all of the real numbers.
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Aug 21, 2015 18:42
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computer parts posted:Most likely it's extremely localized. I doubt anyone above the county level knows what the real numbers are, or knows who to talk to in order to get them. This is hardly a new problem for China, either. See also, Great Leap Forward. I often wonder if that country might simply be ungovernable at a federal level.
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Aug 21, 2015 18:52
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Vladimir Putin posted:I think just for the sake of nonstupidity there's got to be a set of real numbers somewhere and somebody or a set of people know it and have access. It's entirely possible they don't. The local official gets the real number and passes up an inflated one, which gets inflated again by the next guy and so on. There would be people at the very bottom who know a real number, but only for his immediate purview. This happened before in China with the agricultural and industrial output numbers during the Great Leap Forward. You'd hope they've learned from that but if I were placing bets I'd say no one in China actually knows the real national statistics.
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Aug 21, 2015 18:58
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Franks Happy Place posted:
Federalism would probably help, to be honest (I know that's not what you meant). The problem seems to be a lot of top down pressure on local areas and then not a lot of follow up to verify that their numbers are accurate. You're probably not going to get the latter in a developing country (we have trouble sometimes getting it here), so relieving the former would probably help things a little at least.
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Aug 21, 2015 19:01
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Radbot posted:Thanks China for ensuring that my retirement will likely never occur 
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Aug 21, 2015 19:09
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Goddamn China, you want to be a first world country and have your 5000 years of history respected so maybe you should loving act like one.
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Aug 21, 2015 19:10
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This helpful graphic from CNN should clear everything up:
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Aug 21, 2015 19:13
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coffeetable posted:how'd you end up with that much exposure to chinese markets emerging markets index funds?
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Aug 21, 2015 19:37
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coffeetable posted:how'd you end up with that much exposure to chinese markets I'm being hyperbolic, just between my -2% personal rate of return last year and this, it's not looking good trend-wise.
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Aug 21, 2015 19:38
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:emerging markets index funds? Emerging markets were never a good bet.
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Aug 21, 2015 19:38
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:emerging markets index funds? A lot of hedge funds are deep into Apple and Apple has been taking a beating because it's growth lately was heavily based on Chinese growth.
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Aug 21, 2015 19:51
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Radbot posted:Thanks China for ensuring that my retirement will likely never occur coffeetable posted:how'd you end up with that much exposure to chinese markets Feeling pretty good about buying those FXI puts last month.
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Aug 21, 2015 22:26
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The problem with China is that it's meteoric growth has come from a lot of lousy investments fueled by loose monetary and fiscal policy as a response to the great financial crisis. All that money sunk into commodities, housing and manufacturing capacity is starting to bite them in the rear end. It also doesn't help that their economy is also suffering from the malaise of investors chasing yield in a global economy that isn't really growing. To top it off, the Chinese GDP numbers aren't trustworthy. It's like a loving dumpster fire of financial garbage in China. By the way, while China's GDP is currently being reported as 7℅ this is and engineered decline from highs of like 14% annually.
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Aug 21, 2015 22:50
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Have you been out of the loop for a while? This was neither an engineered decline nor 7% annualized growth.
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Aug 21, 2015 23:18
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http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/14/china-2q-gdp-grows-70-slightly-above-expectations.html https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China
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Aug 21, 2015 23:27
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/14/china-2q-gdp-grows-70-slightly-above-expectations.html All indicators aside from government reported GDP show a much more dire slowdown, raising the possibility that the US might actually grow more than China this year.
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Aug 21, 2015 23:32
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http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-8
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Aug 21, 2015 23:33
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Fojar38 posted:All indicators aside from government reported GDP show a much more dire slowdown, raising the possibility that the US might actually grow more than China this year. Sure. I'm happy to be proven wrong. I'm just restating what's been reported.
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Aug 21, 2015 23:34
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That article was published in March, when there were clear signs of growth below 7% but everybody was waiting to see what would happen with the big growth in the Shanghai exchange. In August the exchange is seriously hosed up and much of it is clearly not marked to market (what a weird idea for a stock market) and growth for the year is looking very weak or even 0%. Also you have to wonder about financial reporting entities when they come out with predictions of like 6.9% when the government figure is 7% and everyone knows it's junk. How much of a backlash are they worried about if they come out and say "the Chinese economy is looking weak this year and we recommend reducing exposure" because you know the Chinese nomenklatura that control media would perceive that as an attack. Arglebargle III fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Aug 21, 2015 |
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Aug 21, 2015 23:39
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So how can we trust the numbers from before as well if they (probably, most likely,) we always bunk from the start? How sure can we be of actual GDP, can it be like, off by 10%? More? Less?
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Aug 21, 2015 23:46
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GoutPatrol posted:So how can we trust the numbers from before as well if they (probably, most likely,) we always bunk from the start? How sure can we be of actual GDP, can it be like, off by 10%? More? Less? We can't and some of us have been saying so for years. It's possible that Chinese GDP is lower than stated by a couple of trillion depending on how long they've been doing this.
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Aug 21, 2015 23:55
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Fojar38 posted:We can't and some of us have been saying so for years. It's possible that Chinese GDP is lower than stated by a couple of trillion depending on how long they've been doing this. To be honest, similar things can be said about some western financial institutions (albeit at a smaller scale). Ain't capitalisma beauty.
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Aug 22, 2015 00:12
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Freezer posted:To be honest, similar things can be said about some western financial institutions (albeit at a smaller scale). Ain't capitalisma beauty. Yeah but western financial institutions are far more likely to call one another out on blatant lies like the Chinese GDP reports.
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Aug 22, 2015 00:35
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Freezer posted:To be honest, similar things can be said about some western financial institutions (albeit at a smaller scale). Ain't capitalisma beauty. Sure, financial institutions themselves, but in the case of China, it is even more dangerous since there doesn't seem to be a single honest institution there at any level and the actual state of the Chinese economy seems to be in a quantum state (well somewhere between 7% growth and a moderate recession). It is the worst of both worlds with ridiculously unregulated capitalism ruled over by an single-party authoritarian state that exists only to perpetuate itself. Of course, the only response the Western financial world seems to have to fix this is privatizing remaining SOEs, which all honesty isn't going to solve anything. That said, China still has the reserves to keep on flooding the system with cash but the medium/long-term outlook for China isn't strong. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Aug 22, 2015 |
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Aug 22, 2015 00:40
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Mozi posted:It's also possible that what they thought were the real numbers were as fake as what they say the real numbers are and they only beginning to grasp the depth of the problem. This is likely. The USSR and its satellites were in a similar situation by the 80s.
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Aug 22, 2015 01:02
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My favourite Chinese economy statistics story is still the time a couple of years ago when, after not publishing an official GINI coefficient statistic for something like a decade, they released a figure they had clearly pulled out of their arse literally weeks after two independent institutions had estimated it at something ridiculous like >0.6. There was a pretty depressing journal article I read a few years back about China's fake statistics and how China studies has become an incestuous academic community so dependent on Chinese funding and research visas that lower-ranking academics can barely publish anything more than mildly critical of China -- I'll see if I can dig it up. Unfortunately the politics department I'm at (Cambridge) has also been pretty thoroughly colonised by Chinese money in the past two or three years as well, to the point that people have resigned from the department over it, and the module with the reading list the paper appeared on has been scrapped.
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Aug 22, 2015 01:07
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| # ? May 17, 2024 15:17 |
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So is that why the British elite fellate China at every opportunity? Seriously, the China-will-rule-the-world rhetoric is much more inflated on younz end of the pond.
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Aug 22, 2015 01:26
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