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DivineCoffeeBinge
Mar 3, 2011

Spider-Man's Amazing Construction Company

Patter Song posted:

Joementum trolls harder than anyone.

It's true, but he trolls in a fashion I find aesthetically pleasing.

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Dahn
Sep 4, 2004
The plan for the Trump Wall


suburban virgin
Jul 26, 2007
Highly qualified lurker.
I don't think there are even that many "establishment" goons to toxx? Except Joe but we can't toxx Joe he's a national treasure.

Cantorsdust
Aug 10, 2008

Infinitely many points, but zero length.

Dahn posted:

The plan for the Trump Wall




I'm glad we're finally sealing Alaska and Hawaii off from proper America.

EugeneJ
Feb 5, 2012

by FactsAreUseless

Dahn posted:

The plan for the Trump Wall




The Librul Isles

Dahn
Sep 4, 2004

Cantorsdust posted:

I'm glad we're finally sealing Alaska and Hawaii off from proper America.

Well Alaska is doing the raping

Dahbadu
Aug 22, 2004

Reddit has helpfully advised me that I look like a "15 year old fortnite boi"

Fargo Fukes posted:

Joe he's a national treasure.

I agree.

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Dahbadu posted:

Will do! (Didn't know that was an option. Sorry.)

If it helps any, if by some miracle this RSF is still kickin' long enough for either of your toxxes to come true I will gladly ban you.

WrightOfWay
Jul 24, 2010


Dahn posted:

The plan for the Trump Wall




If this will keep Californians from moving to Oregon I'm in favor of this.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Cruz is leading the charge in a 50-state attack on PP.

https://www.texastribune.org/2015/08/23/cruz-lead-50-state-attack-planned-parenthood/

I think Cruz will be Trump's VP.

Martin Random
Jul 18, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
The same milquetoast democratic cowards who cleaved to Hillary as a sure thing early on are the first to waver at the slightest hint of weakness. They're the ones secretly urging Biden to run, and their wheedling will further weaken Hillary and embolden a doomed Biden to split the establishment vote.

Dahn
Sep 4, 2004

Martin Random posted:

The same milquetoast democratic cowards who cleaved to Hillary as a sure thing early on are the first to waver at the slightest hint of weakness. They're the ones secretly urging Biden to run, and their wheedling will further weaken Hillary and embolden a doomed Biden to split the establishment vote.

This is what America has become, milquetoast. mealymouthed, little participation trophy squirmtards.

We need to make America great again.

VikingofRock
Aug 24, 2008




Dahn posted:

The plan for the Trump Wall




As a Californian, I'm okay with this.

Dahbadu
Aug 22, 2004

Reddit has helpfully advised me that I look like a "15 year old fortnite boi"

VikingofRock posted:

As a Californian, I'm okay with this.

Same. But I still want your water. I think this makes me a bad person.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

VikingofRock posted:

As a Californian, I'm okay with this.

Rename it Alta California, let it join with its Baja sister in Mexico.

point of return
Aug 13, 2011

by exmarx

Dahn posted:

This is what America has become, milquetoast. mealymouthed, little participation trophy squirmtards.

We need to make America great again.

actually participation trophies are cool and good

Dahbadu posted:

Same. But I still want your water. I think this makes me a bad person.

I think that if the rest of the country and the world wants our almonds (they do) we should get their water, it's only fair

AceRimmer
Mar 18, 2009
Love how Carson City and Yuma get fenced off too.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Patter Song posted:

So...according to Nate Silver, the guy who is leading the GOP primary in national polls by double digits, has leads in early states and later states in polls, has infinite money to draw on, and is running against a field of drooling inbreds has a 2% chance at his nomination.

A guy who is behind by 20% nationally, down by a similar margin in Iowa and maybe sort of tied in New Hampshire depending on the poll you listen to, has no support in later states besides maybe his home state of Vermont and a few others, has a low budget campaign and is running against a former First Lady/Senator/Secretary of State has a 5% chance at his nomination.

I don't understand Nate Silver these days.

His models are basically dartboards at this point . Dude makes a lot of really silly mistakes which isn't a surprise given his lack of advanced statistical education.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Nate Silver doubting Trump means his entire reason for being is called into question quite frankly.

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Yes polls in August 2015 tell you everything you need to know about the entirety of the nomination process in 2016 and are an accurate reflection of what will happen in five months and do not deserve any kind of reservations or analysis.

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

Nonsense posted:

Nate Silver doubting Trump means his entire reason for being is called into question quite frankly.

My point was simply that claiming that it's more likely that Sanders is the Democratic nominee than Trump as GOP nominee is prima facie absurd.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



What if we made a clone combining the DNA of both Trump and Sanders, then used John Titor's car to send him 35 years back in time? After collecting the no doubt surly hobo from his box, would we have a candidate capable of inducing starry-eyed fascination in left and right together?

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Antti posted:

Yes polls in August 2015 tell you everything you need to know about the entirety of the nomination process in 2016 and are an accurate reflection of what will happen in five months and do not deserve any kind of reservations or analysis.

The responsible thing for a data scientist to do at this point would be to either shut up or analyze a far more proximate problem like next week's poll numbers as a response to a set of possible new revelations or rallies. I guess that doesn't really bring about the same traffic, though.

Spaceman Future!
Feb 9, 2007

Patter Song posted:

My point was simply that claiming that it's more likely that Sanders is the Democratic nominee than Trump as GOP nominee is prima facie absurd.

Sanders isnt opposed by his party, there are just concerns about his electability in the general among the brass. Trump is despised by the GOP party brass and whether he would actually be given the nom even if he earned it is in doubt. Keep in mind the small percentages youre talking about and WHY.

stoutfish
Oct 8, 2012

by zen death robot

VikingofRock posted:

As a Californian, I'm okay with this.

Nintendo Kid
Aug 4, 2011

by Smythe

Spaceman Future! posted:

Sanders isnt opposed by his party, there are just concerns about his electability in the general among the brass. Trump is despised by the GOP party brass and whether he would actually be given the nom even if he earned it is in doubt. Keep in mind the small percentages youre talking about and WHY.

And don't forget, the odds given are just for Trump successfully nabbing the Republican nomination, which a bunch of the GOP is willing to ratfuck him out of, not for him to get any nomination at all (i.e. the TrumpoWhig Party).

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Spaceman Future! posted:

Sanders isnt opposed by his party, there are just concerns about his electability in the general among the brass. Trump is despised by the GOP party brass and whether he would actually be given the nom even if he earned it is in doubt. Keep in mind the small percentages youre talking about and WHY.

Trump will get the nomination if he gets the votes. To the GOP higher-ups, it must be better to lose horrifically in 2016 than to possibly permanently splinter the party by encouraging Donald Trump as an independent and still horrifically lose in 2016 because the conservative vote is divided.

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Dahn posted:

The plan for the Trump Wall




i will volunteer to build this wall if we also get to deport the californians

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Nessus posted:

What if we made a clone combining the DNA of both Trump and Sanders, then used John Titor's car to send him 35 years back in time? After collecting the no doubt surly hobo from his box, would we have a candidate capable of inducing starry-eyed fascination in left and right together?

trump and sanders mixed together, serve with a roux and bam you got yourself huey long

Dahn
Sep 4, 2004
A Trump campaign video (with a simple replacement of Flash with Trump)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNIVpMXHqlk

A Neurotic Jew
Feb 17, 2012

by exmarx

Dahbadu posted:

All you goons with strong "serious people" opinions really need to :toxx: yourselves for establishment candidates winning their respective primaries. After all, your opinions are so knowledgeable and educated, right? Put your money where your mouth is.

I've already :toxx:ed for Bernie winning the primary. I feel odds are actually against him, but not so much he can't win. YOLO

Let me :toxx: myself for Trump winning his primary. I feel odds are actually in his favor and I feel this is a safe bet.

Nice meltdown.

quote:

I don't understand Nate Silver these days.

"Nate Silver only knew what he was doing when he predicted things my way!"

Bernieailures are on the precipice of some truly delightful poll unskewing.

midnightclimax
Dec 3, 2011

by XyloJW

A Neurotic Jew posted:

Nice meltdown.


"Nate Silver only knew what he was doing when he predicted things my way!"

Bernieailures are on the precipice of some truly delightful poll unskewing.

It's just math you do as a socialist

Kobayashi
Aug 13, 2004

by Nyc_Tattoo
What's Nate Silver saying that is causing meltdowns? I can't keep up with this thread.

Alec Bald Snatch
Sep 12, 2012

by exmarx

Kobayashi posted:

What's Nate Silver saying that is causing meltdowns? I can't keep up with this thread.

Trump es no bueno.

bunnyofdoom
Mar 29, 2008

I've been here the whole time, and you're not my real Dad! :emo:
So, where is the toxx yourself for the primary threads at?

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Kobayashi posted:

What's Nate Silver saying that is causing meltdowns? I can't keep up with this thread.

That Trump and Bernie have a <5% chance of winning their respective nomination.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

trump and sanders mixed together, serve with a roux and bam you got yourself huey long

I'd vote for Huey.

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
its impossible to predict the future and nate silver is just using the information he has which really isn't enough to determine what's going to happen several months from now.

VikingofRock
Aug 24, 2008




Absurd Alhazred posted:

Rename it Alta California, let it join with its Baja sister in Mexico.

Secede, and then when the US Dollar crashes because congress defaults or whatever we will be in position to have everyone trade in Alto Pesos!

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Patter Song posted:

So...according to Nate Silver, the guy who is leading the GOP primary in national polls by double digits, has leads in early states and later states in polls, has infinite money to draw on, and is running against a field of drooling inbreds has a 2% chance at his nomination.

A guy who is behind by 20% nationally, down by a similar margin in Iowa and maybe sort of tied in New Hampshire depending on the poll you listen to, has no support in later states besides maybe his home state of Vermont and a few others, has a low budget campaign and is running against a former First Lady/Senator/Secretary of State has a 5% chance at his nomination.

I don't understand Nate Silver these days.

So first of all, that "prediction" was acknowledged as a shoot-from-the-hip estimate without any real statistical basis, so it should be treated with a grain of salt. Secondly, consider the number of republican contenders with a legitimate shot versus the number of democratic candidates. Third, look at the republican party's own interests. Bernie may be an outsider, but at least he is actively in favor of what the democratic party wants. Trump has promised big tariffs, for example, which makes him #1 on the republican party's hit list. In short, the party will do whatever it takes to oppose him. Finally, consider the relative unimportance of nationwide pollling this early on. Most of the experts say that it has almost no predictive value at this point.

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