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#TrumpDeathRally
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:43 |
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# ? May 24, 2024 19:27 |
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Bob Ojeda posted:Sure. I agree and I also misread the initial comment you were quoting. But yeah, I think that structural knowledge of the primary process is important, and polls can be important, and a bunch of things are factors or important. My point is that the stars have aligned this election cycle, to make certain things that were very important in the past (and if decent enough predictors), possibly not as important as they once were.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:44 |
Dr.Zeppelin posted:Donald Trump could probably scrape up the amount of money that is represented on that entire graph without having any material effect on his standard of living. I don't understand why "Jeb! has A HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS" is supposed to be some kind of magic bullet against a billionaire. A lack of a field operation isn't a problem that Trump money can't solve.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:46 |
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I don't think Trump will be the nominee but I don't think Jeb! will be either, I don't think you can become president with basically no support outside of donors and endorsements from other politicians.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:47 |
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Nessus posted:The big problem is that, and I'm not sure if this is formally backed up, but it seems like up to a certain point more money does not equal automatic victory. Citizens United has given us a wonderful way to test that. It's going to be tested by whether Scott Walker is our next president.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:47 |
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if jeb wins the nom itll basically be confirmation that the only important thing in american democracy is money, because thats his only advantage at all
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:48 |
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:if jeb wins the nom itll basically be confirmation that the only important thing in american democracy is money Yeah, that and establishment support.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:49 |
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Dahbadu posted:Yeah, that and establishment support. establishment is still split a bit, although jeb probably does have the most
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:51 |
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Dahbadu posted:I agree and I also misread the initial comment you were quoting. But yeah, I think that structural knowledge of the primary process is important, and polls can be important, and a bunch of things are factors or important. My point is that the stars have aligned this election cycle, to make certain things that were very important in the past (and if decent enough predictors), possibly not as important as they once were. It's possible that things have fundamentally changed, that the stars have re-aligned, and a lot of our conventional wisdom is just wrong now. That's always a possibility to be aware of. But August 2015 is really early to declare that as a certainty. And I think that's where Silver is coming from with his prediction.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:52 |
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:if jeb wins the nom itll basically be confirmation that the only important thing in american democracy is money, because thats his only advantage at all Well, money and ratfucking associates
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:52 |
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:establishment is still split a bit, although jeb probably does have the most The point is that he's a candidate that the establishment can tolerate.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:52 |
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Biden!
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:53 |
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Bob Ojeda posted:The polls aren't really the main evidence used by the people who think that, though. Ironically, the main evidence used by people who think that seems to be "Ron Paul." Veskit posted:Clinton works a lot with leaders of the black communities including pastors, NAACP members and a whole bunch and has heard and listened to concerns. She's talked about addressing problems as president, and a lot of people trust her. It's mostly trust. Clinton also literally said "All Lives Matter" while trying to directly address Black Lives Matter.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:53 |
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My money's on Rubio
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:54 |
Bob Ojeda posted:It's possible that things have fundamentally changed, that the stars have re-aligned, and a lot of our conventional wisdom is just wrong now. That's always a possibility to be aware of. At this point I'm not sure Silver has anything reliable to base his numbers on. Silver's reputation is based on doing cross-analysis based on lots of data. There's just not that much data yet, and what there is, is not all that reliable.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 00:55 |
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Deep Hurting posted:Ironically, the main evidence used by people who think that seems to be "Ron Paul." I thought that was O'Malley. When did Clinton say "All Lives Matter"?
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:01 |
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Litany Unheard posted:I thought that was O'Malley. When did Clinton say "All Lives Matter"? Two months ago http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/06/24/417112956/hillary-clintons-three-word-gaffe-all-lives-matter
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:05 |
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:06 |
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Litany Unheard posted:I thought that was O'Malley. When did Clinton say "All Lives Matter"? A couple of months ago. Also her more recent encounter with BLM a week or so ago was a cringe-worthy experience. She basically told them to come up with legislative solutions and dodged around her involvement with the anti-crime legislation that hosed minority communities everywhere over for the last two decades.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:09 |
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DynamicSloth posted:Sorry, original still more disturbing. Both images made me laugh out loud. When I clicked on the blood one, I wasn't expecting it and I was cracking up. Good edit.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:09 |
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this may be loud, a warning http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5tcer_donald-trump-vs-rosie-o-donnell_sport
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:13 |
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uncurable mlady posted:"this time it's different!" - a bunch of people every 4 years shortly before learning that it's actually not different at all
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:17 |
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Would you say then that difference itself is impossible, and that past patterns were established during an age where factors and influences could proliferate (back when difference was possible), after which they matured, and now, for as long as there are primaries, they will work how they are "supposed" to work going into the future forever? Presumably, either difference is possible, or it isn't. If it isn't, then we're saying that we can confidently predict that there will be no change in the primary process, ever. Or would you say that difference is a thing that's possible? Hmm, but wait, we have already seen numerous changes (Citizens United, the effect of the internet, candidates no longer chosen by party bosses, etc) so then I guess your point is that some factors are immutable and the others are irrelevant to that which does not change? Of course, a great way to attack this would be by saying that Trump's candidacy is not on the order of magnitude as some of those listed changes, but then that's not what I'm saying, as much as illustrating that changes do indeed occur. Just trying to enrich myself as to your insight. The Real Paddy fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Aug 24, 2015 |
# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:25 |
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Litany Unheard posted:I thought that was O'Malley. When did Clinton say "All Lives Matter"? The BLM vs. "all lives matter" thing is so loving weak. It's easy to fix in a way that should satisfy everyone. Watch: "All lives matter. That's what every decent American has professed to believe for centuries, yet we can see clearly that the institutions of this country are not acting upon it. So, when people point out that 'black lives matter' they are really just reminding us of one of the parts of 'all lives matter' that our institutions are choosing to ignore. All Americans know that all lives matter; the BLM movement wants to make sure that our institutions and our government live up to this simple, sacred truth, and we'd like to work with them toward that goal." Re-frame the BLM movement/catchphrase/etc. as the most urgent part of fulfilling the implicit promise of saying "all lives matter."
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:27 |
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Mitt Romney posted:Also Jeb has this: What I'm seeing is that JEB! has personally raised roughly the same amount as Carson, Cruz and Rubio. He has much more PAC money behind him, but there's no reason to assume it will all stay with him through the primaries.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:28 |
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I didn't feel much was different 8 years ago, except we got exceedingly lucky with an amazing establishment candidate. He was such a good candidate, he was able to overcome the handicap of having dark skin and a weird name.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:29 |
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Boosted_C5 posted:Yeah. I got Florida wrong too. I though Romney would win both those states and only lose by a few electoral votes. Would you say that perhaps 47% of the country is just a bunch of takers?
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:33 |
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I love seeing Walker crumble into pieces
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:44 |
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Ted Cruz has scheduled a conference call for August 25th to talk about defunding Planned Parenthood. https://www.facebook.com/events/1035376216502973/ facebook posted:Sen. Ted Cruz hosts conference call to unleash a plan to defund Planned Parenthood
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:48 |
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Whiskey Sours posted:What I'm seeing is that JEB! has personally raised roughly the same amount as Carson, Cruz and Rubio. He has much more PAC money behind him, but there's no reason to assume it will all stay with him through the primaries. What happens to PAC money if: A) The candidate drops out before it's all spent B) The election is over and there is money left in the account? edit: Just saw this: http://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-tax-code-letting-hedge-funds-away-155930927--sector.html Trump 2016 - uniting progressives and racists! The Nastier Nate fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Aug 24, 2015 |
# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:48 |
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Eh, I tend to agree that this time it isn't (much) different. However things have in the past changed very rapidly and there's no good reason to think it *can't* happen. The question is whether it's happening *now*. I'm unconvinced and even though I support Bernie, were I to support candidates the same way I place trades in the equities casinos I'd have buy Hillary, kinda like banksters today have done already.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:52 |
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The Nastier Nate posted:What happens to PAC money if: You get some nice bonuses for the executives.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:53 |
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quote:Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump blasted hedge fund managers on Sunday as mere "paper pushers" who he said were "getting away with murder" by not paying their fair share of taxes.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:58 |
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PT6A posted:The BLM vs. "all lives matter" thing is so loving weak. It's easy to fix in a way that should satisfy everyone. Watch: All lives matter is like white history month. It doesn't need to be said because it is obvious and exists every month. That single statement is enough to destroy any further argument.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:00 |
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Trumps coming for hedgefund blood coming out of, wherever,
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:10 |
Looks like that Jeb! Super PAC is gonna go a lot higher.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:12 |
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It's not just hedge fund managers; it's anybody who "earns" a living on these things. It's pretty shameful how low the taxes are on what is effectively gambling, trading on inside information, insider-driven news, statistics-driven bets, and (more or less) front-running.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:15 |
Evil Fluffy posted:Either way, watching goons go full Ron Paulbot for Bernie is a thing of beauty. He's going to win okay
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:18 |
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holy gently caress that's a lot of people who think Psycho Pass is deep. Look, just enjoy the concepts and cyberpunk overtones but it's pretty generic as far as plot goes. Oh wait, now I completely understand how Republicans actually think (replace psycho-pass with Christianity. Jesus was a street samurai)
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:18 |
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# ? May 24, 2024 19:27 |
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Surprisingly not that big a swerve from Trump: quote:NEW YORK (CNN) -- Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has a plan to pay off the national debt, grant a middle class a tax cut, and keep Social Security afloat: tax rich people like himself. Of course, using the fund to pay off the debt doesnt make much sense, but everything else is cool.
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# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:19 |