Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Quiet Feet: Dec 14, 2009; THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?

Eeeee I have first overall pick in my league's draft in 20 minutes, who do I pick? :ohdear:

Leaning Aaron Rodgers but also pondering Jamaal Charles. It's a snake draft so I won't be picking again until the end of the 2nd.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:11

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 05:53

Mollymauk: Apr 20, 2006

Drafting 2nd in a no ppr standard yahoo league QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN. Should I go with AP or Antonio Brown?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:11

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Quiet Feet posted:

Eeeee I have first overall pick in my league's draft in 20 minutes, who do I pick?

Leaning Aaron Rodgers but also pondering Jamaal Charles. It's a snake draft so I won't be picking again until the end of the 2nd.

Is it a 2 QB league, one with points per completion, or 6 points for passing TDs? If no, I would strongly advise not taking a QB at 1.01.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:12

Prophecy120: Feb 4, 2003; God Bless the Enclave! God Bless America!

Mollymauk posted:

Drafting 2nd in a no ppr standard yahoo league QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN. Should I go with AP or Antonio Brown?

No PPR leans more towards RB, .5 or full PPR A. Brown.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:15

axelord: Dec 28, 2012; College Slice

Finished my auction draft got luck because I was biding hard on Jordy. I think my main weakness is QB/RB2 and my bench. I probably spent too much on my studs too.

Standard QB,3WR,2RB, TE, K, DEF

QB: Rivers

WR: Julio Jones
WR: Dez Byrant
WR: V. Jackson /A. Robbinson/Perriman/N. Agholor (Not sure which one will be the WR3 but hopely I'll hit on one of these guys)

RB: CJ Anderson
RB2: CJ Spiller / J. Bell ( 2 injuried guys in a time share in trouble with this position both were cheap)

BN: Ryan Mathews, Devonta Freeman

DEF: Miami
K: Crosby

I'm thinking about dropping Freeman for Janis when waviers open

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:16

Quiet Feet: Dec 14, 2009; THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?

RVProfootballer posted:

Is it a 2 QB league, one with points per completion, or 6 points for passing TDs? If no, I would strongly advise not taking a QB at 1.01.

1 QB. NFL.com standard rules.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:17

Miko: May 20, 2001; Where I come from, there's no such thing as kryptonite.

Quiet Feet posted:

1 QB. NFL.com standard rules.

Take Charles or AP, then take a nap.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:20

Fight Club Sandwich: Apr 29, 2006; you want a piece of me???

nrr posted:

Thanks for all your help and thoughts, guys. Appreciate it.

I only get 4 Keepers total though, and I've got Maclin and Eli pretty much locked in for super late rounds, and it looks like Cooks in the 10th now as well from what you guys are saying (which I agree with.) So that leaves me one more (unless you think Eli at Rd 15 is a dumb idea and I should rock someone else instead, like this guy v v v v) So a toss up between using up a 2nd rounder on Jeffery, or a last rounder on Steve Smith. Hmmmm

You really think a 15th rounder on Eli is lovely value? You don't think he's going to put up some solid yds/tds this year with Cruz and ODB? 15th round is nothing.

Thanks man, looks like you're leaning towards Jeffery at 2 over Eli and Smith?

You think Crowell is going to do anything this year? He's been pretty average so far in pre season and I don't see him even taking the lead role in the Browns backfield yet.

e: Also, I'm not actually sure how/if I can check my opponents keepers before the keeper deadline. Is that possible? Yahoo league.

I thought you said Eli/5.

Eli/15 is fine though I'd still rather have AJ80/4 in a 4-keeper league. You should be able to get a QB similar to Eli in the later rounds but getting WR2 value in a 4 keeper league will be more difficult.

Fight Club Sandwich fucked around with this message at 01:33 on Aug 24, 2015

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:30

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Mollymauk posted:

Drafting 2nd in a no ppr standard yahoo league QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN. Should I go with AP or Antonio Brown?

AP/Charles/Bell/Lacy before you start looking for WRs in the 2nd.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 01:41

ZIGfried: Nov 4, 2005; I can hardly contain myself!

It's pretty clear that Joseph Randle is behind McFadden. Wasted my keeper on Randle but at least I'm not a vagina right guys?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:10

opposable thumbs.db: Jan 7, 2008; It's hard to say that it's wrong that my life revolves around my dog when she is cuter and more interesting than me; Pillbug

I'm doing a four-person league where the lineup is 3QB, 5RB, 5WR, 3TE, 3FLX, 3K, 3D/ST, 5BN (would have more bench spots but roster size is limited to 30), with 6-point passing TDs, return yards, and 1 PPR. Am I correct in thinking that I should draft more or less the same as I would in a standard-size 12-person league with the same rules? I suppose with the small bench size it means that lottery tickets are riskier, but the variance with boom or bust players like DeSean Jackson is reduced due to the larger numbers of starters.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:11

Papes: Apr 13, 2010; There's always something at the bottom of the bag.

ZIGfried posted:

It's pretty clear that Joseph Randle is behind McFadden. Wasted my keeper on Randle but at least I'm not a vagina right guys?

It's a preseason game....don't put too much stock into it.

But iirc you could have kept Kelce instead, if that's he case then yeah you hosed up.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:14

nrr: Jan 2, 2007

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

I thought you said Eli/5.

Eli/15 is fine though I'd still rather have AJ80/4 in a 4-keeper league. You should be able to get a QB similar to Eli in the later rounds but getting WR2 value in a 4 keeper league will be more difficult.

Yeah, the more I thought about it, the more I think AJ80 in the 4th with Luck throwing to him all year is going to probably be a better deal than giving up my second round pick for Alshon Jeffery, because who knows how much of a poo poo Culter is going to give, or if Jeffery is going to be as effective now that Marshalls gone. I just think there's better ways I could spend that 2nd rd pick is all.

So my tentative keepers look like:

AJ80 - 4th rd
Brandin Cooks - 10th rd
Eli Manning - 15th rd
Jeremy Maclin - 16th rd

So I could switch out Eli for Steve Smith but It's a 2 QB league, and I think locking up a QB like Eli who has the potential to put up killer numbers with such badass receivers, with a super late rd pick is probably going to help me out more than grabbing another WR. Feel free to tell me if that logic is flawed though.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:26

ZIGfried: Nov 4, 2005; I can hardly contain myself!

Papes posted:

It's a preseason game....don't put too much stock into it.

But iirc you could have kept Kelce instead, if that's he case then yeah you hosed up.

Yup that's me. Definitely remorseful now. It'd be one thing if Randle missed the game due to his oblique like originally reported. You don't put a guy you consider your future starter out with the twos when he's got an injury concern. The only bright side is at least he's looking good with the second team.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:27

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

I thought McFadden was hurt? I wouldn't count on him being the starter for long under any circumstances anyway.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:31

Mollymauk: Apr 20, 2006

Suave Fedora posted:

AP/Charles/Bell/Lacy before you start looking for WRs in the 2nd.

Thanks went with Charles then got Brown in the 2nd.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:38

Fight Club Sandwich: Apr 29, 2006; you want a piece of me???

nrr posted:

Yeah, the more I thought about it, the more I think AJ80 in the 4th with Luck throwing to him all year is going to probably be a better deal than giving up my second round pick for Alshon Jeffery, because who knows how much of a poo poo Culter is going to give, or if Jeffery is going to be as effective now that Marshalls gone. I just think there's better ways I could spend that 2nd rd pick is all.

So my tentative keepers look like:

AJ80 - 4th rd
Brandin Cooks - 10th rd
Eli Manning - 15th rd
Jeremy Maclin - 16th rd

So I could switch out Eli for Steve Smith but It's a 2 QB league, and I think locking up a QB like Eli who has the potential to put up killer numbers with such badass receivers, with a super late rd pick is probably going to help me out more than grabbing another WR. Feel free to tell me if that logic is flawed though.

must've missed it was a 2 QB league, yeah eli/15 is awesome value then. keepers look good

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:43

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

How early is too early for Cobb now? Ive got 10th pick in a 12 team draft in 20 minutes and I'm seriously considering taking him on the way back at 2.03. Too early?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:43

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

Get a falling RB1 in the first and ya I would maybe do that depending on the board.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:46

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

Michael Corleone posted:

Get a falling RB1 in the first and ya I would maybe do that depending on the board.

I'll probably be able to pick AJ Green or something around there, just not sure if the injury bumps him that high.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:49

The SituAsian: Oct 29, 2006; I'm a mess in distress
But we're still the best dressed

Mollymauk posted:

Thanks went with Charles then got Brown in the 2nd.

What the hell?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:49

Mollymauk: Apr 20, 2006

The SituAsian posted:

What the hell?

It was an 8 team league with some confusing choices I ended up with:
1. (2) Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)
2. (15) Antonio Brown (Pit - WR)
3. (18) Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR)
4. (31) Le'Veon Bell (Pit - RB)
5. (34) Justin Forsett (Bal - RB)
6. (47) Emmanuel Sanders (Den - WR)
7. (50) Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB)
8. (63) Jordan Cameron (Mia - TE)
9. (66) Brandon Marshall (NYJ - WR)
10. (79) Andre Ellington (Ari - RB)
11. (82) Julian Edelman (NE - WR)
12. (95) Arizona (Ari - DEF)
13. (98) Ameer Abdullah (Det - RB)
14. (111) Ryan Tannehill (Mia - QB)
15. (114) Justin Tucker (Bal - K)

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:57

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

How did you get bell in the 4th/ why didn't you pick him sooner

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:59

Miko: May 20, 2001; Where I come from, there's no such thing as kryptonite.

What the fuckkk, that team is idiotic, even for 8 ppl.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:59

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

LeVeon Bell at 31 overall? No way. What aren't you telling us?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 02:59

The SituAsian: Oct 29, 2006; I'm a mess in distress
But we're still the best dressed

Mollymauk posted:

It was an 8 team league with some confusing choices I ended up with:
1. (2) Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)
2. (15) Antonio Brown (Pit - WR)
3. (18) Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR)
4. (31) Le'Veon Bell (Pit - RB)
5. (34) Justin Forsett (Bal - RB)
6. (47) Emmanuel Sanders (Den - WR)
7. (50) Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB)
8. (63) Jordan Cameron (Mia - TE)
9. (66) Brandon Marshall (NYJ - WR)
10. (79) Andre Ellington (Ari - RB)
11. (82) Julian Edelman (NE - WR)
12. (95) Arizona (Ari - DEF)
13. (98) Ameer Abdullah (Det - RB)
14. (111) Ryan Tannehill (Mia - QB)
15. (114) Justin Tucker (Bal - K)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59GwT_Qlj0Y

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:02

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

MODS please delete that guys team/post it's making me angry.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:04

Mollymauk: Apr 20, 2006

Metapod posted:

How did you get bell in the 4th/ why didn't you pick him sooner

I assume people saw he had the injury alert next to him and avoided him?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:05

Gobias Ind.: Apr 5, 2007; If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

Can you post the full first 4 rounds of that draft so that we can laugh at it?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:06

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

Does anyone in your league know anything about football/fantasy football/the internet/anything?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:06

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Papes posted:

It's a preseason game....don't put too much stock into it.

But iirc you could have kept Kelce instead, if that's he case then yeah you hosed up.

Not when Kelce barely outscores Zach Ertz and no one will care

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:07

Gobias Ind.: Apr 5, 2007; If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

Also, Antonio Brown is healthy and wouldn't have any sort of red flag like Bell would have in a draft lobby for people that don't actually know anything about fantasy football. There is no reason he should ever fall to 15.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:08

Mollymauk: Apr 20, 2006

Gobias Ind. posted:

Can you post the full first 4 rounds of that draft so that we can laugh at it?

Round 1
1. Adrian Peterson
(Min - RB)
Star-Lord
2. Jamaal Charles
(KC - RB)
Lake Destiny...
3. DeMarco Murray
(Phi - RB)
Hook's Bucca...
4. Marshawn Lynch
(Sea - RB)
Wonderland W...
5. Eddie Lacy
(GB - RB)
Team Incredible
6. Dez Bryant
(Dal - WR)
Sherwood Inlaws
7. Aaron Rodgers
(GB - QB)
Belle's Beasts
8. T.Y. Hilton
(Ind - WR)
Colors of th...
Round 2
1. Matt Forte
(Chi - RB)
Colors of th...
2. Rob Gronkowski
(NE - TE)
Belle's Beasts
3. Calvin Johnson
(Det - WR)
Sherwood Inlaws
4. Andrew Luck
(Ind - QB)
Team Incredible
5. Odell Beckham Jr.
(NYG - WR)
Wonderland W...
6. Drew Brees
(NO - QB)
Hook's Bucca...
7. Antonio Brown
(Pit - WR)
Lake Destiny...
8. Jeremy Hill
(Cin - RB)
Star-Lord
Round 3
1. Peyton Manning
(Den - QB)
Star-Lord
2. Demaryius Thomas
(Den - WR)
Lake Destiny...
3. Julio Jones
(Atl - WR)
Hook's Bucca...
4. A.J. Green
(Cin - WR)
Wonderland W...
5. Randall Cobb
(GB - WR)
Team Incredible
6. LeSean McCoy
(Buf - RB)
Sherwood Inlaws
7. C.J. Anderson
(Den - RB)
Belle's Beasts
8. Russell Wilson
(Sea - QB)
Colors of th...
Round 4
1. Jimmy Graham
(Sea - TE)
Colors of th...
2. Alshon Jeffery
(Chi - WR)
Belle's Beasts
3. Frank Gore
(Ind - RB)
Sherwood Inlaws
4. Greg Olsen
(Car - TE)
Team Incredible
5. Mark Ingram
(NO - RB)
Wonderland W...
6. Jordan Matthews
(Phi - WR)
Hook's Bucca...
7. Le'Veon Bell
(Pit - RB)
Lake Destiny...
8. DeAndre Hopkins
(Hou - WR)
Star-Lord

The league is my brother and his wife's family they seem to be all theater people.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:13

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

I mean, it is crazy in the sense that he fell that far, but not in the sense of kickers, defenses, and 'all white teams' going ahead of him. Good job, good effort!

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:19

Papes: Apr 13, 2010; There's always something at the bottom of the bag.

Dandy Kaiser posted:

Not when Kelce barely outscores Zach Ertz and no one will care

Kelce was significantly more efficient than Ertz last year and will be on the field much more this year....I highly doubt that happens barring injury.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:34

Zombie Tsunami: Jun 22, 2006

The 6-7-8 picks in that draft really make it for me.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:57

Zombie Tsunami: Jun 22, 2006

I also love anyone that drafts the Eagles backfield after last year... especially that high. As a buy-low after Wk 9 McCoy owner from last year, enjoy listening to fantasy ~experts~ and putting your stock in that tilt-a-whirl of bullshit, you idiots.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:01

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

nrr posted:

Yeah, the more I thought about it, the more I think AJ80 in the 4th with Luck throwing to him all year is going to probably be a better deal than giving up my second round pick for Alshon Jeffery, because who knows how much of a poo poo Culter is going to give, or if Jeffery is going to be as effective now that Marshalls gone. I just think there's better ways I could spend that 2nd rd pick is all.

So my tentative keepers look like:

AJ80 - 4th rd
Brandin Cooks - 10th rd
Eli Manning - 15th rd
Jeremy Maclin - 16th rd

So I could switch out Eli for Steve Smith but It's a 2 QB league, and I think locking up a QB like Eli who has the potential to put up killer numbers with such badass receivers, with a super late rd pick is probably going to help me out more than grabbing another WR. Feel free to tell me if that logic is flawed though.

Yeah, you should've mentioned it was 2 QB, Eli in the 15th is even better value than Maclin or Cooks.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:04

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Family drafts are the best. Standard ESPN with a third WR slot and half PPR.

The best part was my sister-in-law getting pissed because her cousin snagged Seattle before she could. Or everybody going WTF at the Adams pick because nobody else had heard Jordy tore his ACL. That plus my four month old daughter screaming bloody murder made the night.

My wife has the best team name: Pump & Dump.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:12

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 05:53

jabro: Mar 25, 2003; July Mock Draft 2014

1st PLACE
RUNNER-UP
got the knowshon

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Family drafts are the best. Standard ESPN with a third WR slot and half PPR.

The best part was my sister-in-law getting pissed because her cousin snagged Seattle before she could. Or everybody going WTF at the Adams pick because nobody else had heard Jordy tore his ACL. That plus my four month old daughter screaming bloody murder made the night.

My wife has the best team name: Pump & Dump.

Nothing was said when Jordy went second round?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:16

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