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AreWeDrunkYet posted:I don't get how this is even enforceable? What's stopping Trump from signing the pledge with his fingers crossed behind his back, then just running as an independent anyway if he doesn't get the GOP nomination?
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Aug 25, 2015 21:04
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Jewel Repetition posted:Trump is going to win. More than 50% of the delegates are handed out proportionally, only the states after Mar 15 can be winner take all. This means that in a large field the delegates are being spread across everyone. Even if Trump is winning everything with 30% of the vote, he is only getting 30% of the delegates (apx cause the math is different in each state) Assume 10 candidates make it to the 8th of March (Michigan and Mississippi) the magic 50% mark, with Trump getting 30% of the delegates. Thats about 310 hard delegates that must vote for him. The other 10 candidates have about 715 hard delegates. So halfway through the race Trump needs 926 more delegates. (1236 is the magic number) 437 delegates are able to vote for anyone, no matter who won their state (all of these are party establishment) So establishment candidate X gets most of the 437 votes and only needs 799 more. Basically Trump needs 1236 and Candidate X needs 799. Assume (fantasy time) the 9 other candidates try to pass their delegates to Candidate X, this puts them under 100 delegates from locking it up and we are only half way through. Trump needs to win everyone of the winner take all states like Florida. The second half of the primary must be all Trump all the time. I'm not saying its impossible for Trump to win, just very hard.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:08
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:I don't get how this is even enforceable? What's stopping Trump from signing the pledge with his fingers crossed behind his back, then just running as an independent anyway if he doesn't get the GOP nomination? The worst I can see them doing is shutting Trump out of next cycle's primaries, and we all know his attention span is not that long. It's kind of a dumb move tactically, too. "Please sign this pledge saying you won't run as an Independent. Or else we won't let you run as a Republican. Because we're terrified of you running as an Independent."
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Aug 25, 2015 21:09
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:I don't get how this is even enforceable? What's stopping Trump from signing the pledge with his fingers crossed behind his back, then just running as an independent anyway if he doesn't get the GOP nomination? The worst I can see them doing is shutting Trump out of next cycle's primaries, and we all know his attention span is not that long. Trump is not a normal candidate, but what else is the GOP gonna do?
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Aug 25, 2015 21:09
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http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/25/exclusive-ann-coulter-to-introduce-donald-trump-in-iowa/quote:Eleven-time New York Times bestselling author Ann Coulter will introduce 2016 GOP frontrunner Donald Trump at a rally in Iowa on Tuesday, Breitbart News has learned exclusively. Comments are pretty choice. quote:Anyways i have done my research. And after it all I came to the conclusion that you're a genious (sarcasm since i feel the need to spell it out for you).
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Aug 25, 2015 21:11
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awesmoe posted:For a normal candidate (eg bush) giving your word and then immediately going back on it when things don't go your way would be regarded negatively by voters.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:12
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I've also just realized what my greatest hope for the general election is: Trump wins and we see our first ever open revolt of the Electoral College. (Which would somehow result in Jim Gilmore becoming President.)
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Aug 25, 2015 21:12
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Dahn posted:More than 50% of the delegates are handed out proportionally, only the states after Mar 15 can be winner take all. For the proportionality states, I think that assigning 30% to Trump is a bit of a lowball. And it seems very likely that Trump will win all of the winner take all states.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:12
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If Trump was the clear frontrunner among voting Republicans by the time of the convention, and those 437 establishment delegates voted for Candidate X anyway, there would be a Trumpian bloodbath
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Aug 25, 2015 21:18
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Edit: Nevermind. I misread something.
Dahbadu fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 21:26
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Coulter fulfilling her destiny as Eva Braun
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Aug 25, 2015 21:26
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Xenophon posted:If Trump was the clear frontrunner among voting Republicans by the time of the convention, and those 437 establishment delegates voted for Candidate X anyway, there would be a Trumpian bloodbath Didn't Hillary's campaign claim this is what happened in 2008 with Obama? I remember something about them saying that Obama supporters blocked the doors or something.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:28
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Joementum posted:Also, it's completely understandable to not know the rules of delegate apportionment off the top of your head. Mark Penn account spotted.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:32
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York_M_Chan posted:Didn't Hillary's campaign claim this is what happened in 2008 with Obama? I remember something about them saying that Obama supporters blocked the doors or something. Hillary Clinton at the 2008 Democratic convention moved to nominate Barack Obama herself, so this seems unlikely.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:33
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I vaguely remember something like that but it was at the Iowa caucus, not the actual DNC. poo poo got rowdy back then.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:36
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Dahn posted:More than 50% of the delegates are handed out proportionally, only the states after Mar 15 can be winner take all. Realistically, Trump only needs to maintain a large enough delegate lead that the RNC must choose between him and going to a brokered convention. Both a brokered convention and a Trump nomination would be a disaster for the Republicans and spell certain doom. If the establishment decides to end him, it's certain that he will run as a third party out of spite and probably beat whatever candidate has all of several months to build an organization that can win in November. If they don't, they get Trump. Either way, you've got Trump. I tend to think they'd go with their party's chosen nominee. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 21:37
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Antti posted:I vaguely remember something like that but it was at the Iowa caucus, not the actual DNC. poo poo got rowdy back then. I meant the Caucus, sorry.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:38
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York_M_Chan posted:I meant the Caucus, sorry. Yeah, that makes more sense. The Clinton campaign basically stopped its horseshit once the Florida and Michigan delegate situation was settled and the superdelegates made it clear they'd back Obama as the leader of the primary/caucus delegate count.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:40
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:I don't get how this is even enforceable? What's stopping Trump from signing the pledge with his fingers crossed behind his back, then just running as an independent anyway if he doesn't get the GOP nomination? The worst I can see them doing is shutting Trump out of next cycle's primaries, and we all know his attention span is not that long. To me it's less about what he'd do in the General, and more if he'd even sign the pledge in the first place. He's gathering support from people who see him as the "tough negotiator" and someone who "cuts through the bullshit and tells it like it is." And he just had a debate where he said he would not promise to not run third party. What's he gonna do now, sign a pledge promising that very thing? Not likely, as it's possible it could start to crack his image with his supporters (pretty easy to paint him as another party hack if he signs the pledge now). So either they embarrass him, or they get him off the primary ballots. Which in turn would piss him off even more, he'd makes a huge fuss about not being allowed on the ballots, gaining in the polls as a result, and either they let him on anyway, or he gets so angry he does, in fact, run third party if he hasn't already gotten the nomination. It's a rather terrible plan. But they have no idea how to stop him. thrawn527 fucked around with this message at 21:48 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 21:46
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Jewel Repetition posted:Trump is going to win. https://vine.co/v/epwlKVdLW57
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Aug 25, 2015 21:50
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I just realized that when Trump runs Third Party he's still going to be in the Presidential Debates because ratings.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:53
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Joementum posted:"Superdelegates" only exist in the DNC, which lets all Congressional, Gubernatorial, and Presidential Democrats be delegates at the convention. Not true! Each state has at most three republican superdelegates which means they make up a near meaningless 5% of all delegates.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:54
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"Anti-Chris Christie PAC shutting down because his campaign tanked without their help" http://www.rawstory.com/2015/08/anti-chris-christie-pac-shutting-down-because-his-campaign-tanked-without-their-help/
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Aug 25, 2015 21:58
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York_M_Chan posted:You think a Trump rap won't work? its amazing how this movie is still relevant. American politics can be such a troglodyte~ Well ofc it'd have to be, a bunch of old men.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:02
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I approve of Trump's brave anti-oreo stance. Also, gently caress Kraft (owns Nabisco) chocolate: http://themarginalized.com/forced-migration/chocolate/ Real patriots eat these: 
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Aug 25, 2015 22:02
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The Colorado GOP has cancelled it's caucus vote. http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_28700919/colorado-republicans-cancel-2016-presidential-caucus-vote
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Aug 25, 2015 22:09
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Jeb Bush’s fundraising juggernaut shows signs of slowing Seems like the big money establishment types are reluctant to keep throwing good money after bad quote:“The debate performance scared a few people,” said Brian Ballard, a Tallahassee lobbyist backing Bush. “But I think the campaign’s trouble raising money right now is not because of his performance, but there’s some donor fatigue after that $100 million. I’ve been on some donor calls and it’s a hard sell for hard money.”
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Aug 25, 2015 22:14
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Garrison gonna be pissed:  Trump the Dragon Slayer Billboard Revealed on Hwy 50 http://www.westernslopenow.com/news/local-news/trump-the-dragon-slayer-billboard-revealed-on-hwy-50
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Aug 25, 2015 22:15
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this is the best
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Aug 25, 2015 22:17
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Local TV commercials and local newscasters are the best.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:17
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lmao the rainbow wings.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:22
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Full banner: 
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Aug 25, 2015 22:22
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I don't give a poo poo anymore, Trump is the best thing that could happen to this stupid election cycle, including everything that hasn't happened yet.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:22
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Montasque posted:Full banner: Wow, that guy sure does hate acronyms
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Aug 25, 2015 22:24
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UN BLM PP FEMA NSA IRS DEA EPA DHS FED ISIS A' GLBT CFR IRAN SC I don't know some of these
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Aug 25, 2015 22:26
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LIBTARDS I love you Donald
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Aug 25, 2015 22:26
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PC MUSLIM MARXIST MEDIA
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Aug 25, 2015 22:27
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Brannock posted:Did you read the post you quoted? Yes. Montasque posted:Full banner: Amazing, although the hair lacks the luxurious gold of the real thing.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:30
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Third World Reggin posted:UN BLM PP FEMA NSA IRS DEA EPA DHS FED ISIS A' GLBT CFR IRAN SC Anyone who hopes President Trump will end DHS is... not paying attention.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:30
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HappyHippo posted:Yes. Okay, so you have absolutely terrible reading comprehension, because Neurolimal was saying that Trump's presence and effect on the American right would be good for progressives, not that Trump's proto-fascism was progressive.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:34
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