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The reason why Jeb is doing extremely poorly is that he's trying to avoid the Mitt Romney thing of appealing to the hard right in the primary and then being roasted for it in the general, except he forget that Mitt Romney wouldn't have been nominated if he hadn't thrown the red meat.
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Aug 26, 2015 18:07
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GlyphGryph posted:Oh man, a surprise new contender would be the best. Imagine one of the Kochs deciding to enter the ring at this point and go toe to toe with Trump. I know you aren't being serious, but I just wanted to take a tangent here because I thought it would be an interesting point. Most super rich people get rich by essentially inheritance and nepotism. For the most part, wealth creates wealth in a way that's completely removed from merit. My point is, most super rich people are usually wet blankets and not impressive at all under a spotlight. Donald Trump is actually kind of an exception, in that his success (if you want to call it that) is more merit based than most of his peers. All of this I find darkly humorous!
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Aug 26, 2015 18:08
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Venom Snake posted:The reason why Jeb is doing extremely poorly is that he's trying to avoid the Mitt Romney thing of appealing to the hard right in the primary and then being roasted for it in the general, except he forget that Mitt Romney wouldn't have been nominated if he hadn't thrown the red meat. How does this explain him constantly talking about how the Iraq war was a great idea and went well and he'd totally do it again if given the opportunity? I don't see how those sorts of comments would help him in the general.
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Aug 26, 2015 18:18
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GlyphGryph posted:How does this explain him constantly talking about how the Iraq war was a great idea and went well and he'd totally do it again if given the opportunity? I don't see how those sorts of comments would help him in the general. Or stumbling around while trying to decide which group of minorities best deserves the label "anchor babies".
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Aug 26, 2015 18:21
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Dahbadu posted:I know you aren't being serious, but I just wanted to take a tangent here because I thought it would be an interesting point. Most super rich people get rich by essentially inheritance and nepotism. For the most part, wealth creates wealth in a way that's completely removed from merit. My point is, most super rich people are usually wet blankets and not impressive at all under a spotlight. Donald Trump is actually kind of an exception, in that his success (if you want to call it that) is more merit based than most of his peers. All of this I find darkly humorous! This was a great interview with Gore Vidal on Jerry Brown's radio show. It's about an hour long, I'm sorry I can't link to the specific time that it occurs, but at some point they discuss the oddness of the Rockefeller clan entering politics given that the super-rich normally just I'll keep it on in the background for a bit and see if I can find the moment for you.
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Aug 26, 2015 18:22
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the simple fact of the matter is, Jeb isn't cut out for the presidency
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Aug 26, 2015 18:22
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Is Jeb Bush even trying to escape the specter of his brother? http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/25/politics/jeb-bush-hurricane-video-michael-brown/ Heck of a job Jebby.
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Aug 26, 2015 18:37
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Venom Snake posted:The reason why Jeb is doing extremely poorly is that he's trying to avoid the Mitt Romney thing of appealing to the hard right in the primary and then being roasted for it in the general, except he forget that Mitt Romney wouldn't have been nominated if he hadn't thrown the red meat. "anchor babies"
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Aug 26, 2015 18:43
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How do I become a Trump delegate in Texas?
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Aug 26, 2015 18:52
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Montasque posted:Is Jeb Bush even trying to escape the specter of his brother? Wisconsin had two "Miss me yet?" Billboards along two major highways that showed Bush smiling for almost 5-6 years when Obama got elected. Republicans double down on everything.
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Aug 26, 2015 18:55
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GalacticAcid posted:This was a great interview with Gore Vidal on Jerry Brown's radio show. It's about an hour long, I'm sorry I can't link to the specific time that it occurs, but at some point they discuss the oddness of the Rockefeller clan entering politics given that the super-rich normally just Thanks for linking this. I'll try to listen to it later. My day currently involves zoning out via S&S (Spreadsheets & Spotify) and checking the forums when my mind wanders -- which is happening a bit too much, to be honest.
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Aug 26, 2015 18:59
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Philthy posted:Wisconsin had two "Miss me yet?" Billboards along two major highways that showed Bush smiling for almost 5-6 years when Obama got elected. They really do... George W. Bush to headline NYC fundraiser for Jeb a day before 9/11... http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/george-w-bush-headline-nyc-jeb-bush-fundraiser-121754.html
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Aug 26, 2015 19:00
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Philthy posted:Wisconsin had two "Miss me yet?" Billboards along two major highways that showed Bush smiling for almost 5-6 years when Obama got elected. A local sporting goods store in my hometown sells only two political items: a shirt with Reagan wearing an American flag bandana and a "miss me yet?" W shirt.
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Aug 26, 2015 19:05
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Aliquid posted:How do I become a Trump delegate in Texas? tweet something mean about Jeb or Megyn at Trump. if he retweets you are a confirmed delegate
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Aug 26, 2015 19:05
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Aliquid posted:How do I become a Trump delegate in Texas? Get involved in your local republican party. Convince people to vote for you to be a delegate. http://www.texasgop.org/about-the-party/
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Aug 26, 2015 19:15
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Montasque posted:They really do... Protestors should just start showing up to these with mission accomplished banners until the Bush family gets out of loving politics
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Aug 26, 2015 19:18
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AARP LARPer fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Jan 22, 2016 |
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Aug 26, 2015 19:30
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.png?1440612199) Imagine that, the general public doesn't give as much of a poo poo about Emailghazi as the Beltway insiders
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Aug 26, 2015 19:36
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Dahbadu posted:Cool story (despite everything I've predicted so far being true -- at least at this early stage). You mind putting yourself out there and giving us some astute predictions? Or are you going to take the brave milquetoast stance of "it's too early to tell and there's no way anyone can predict anything"? Basically, most of the experts seem to think that early polling, especially at the national level, has almost no predictive power in the primary. This is based on analysis of past primaries. Things like endorsements and financing do have predictive power. So if you go by the former at the expense of the latter, as you have, you throw out the proven, predictive information and keep the much more volatile, much less predictive information. At this point, it is difficult to predict who will win the GOP primary. Trump has a shot, but characters like Bush and Rubio are still more likely, despite the poll numbers. For the dems, Hillary is still by far the most likely candidate.
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Aug 26, 2015 19:38
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Montasque posted:So when is the cut off date for Jeb to get his poo poo together before the establishment gives him the finger and hitches their ride to Rubio? GlyphGryph posted:The articles I've seen say it's... not good. His camp is citing "donor fatigue" last I checked. Zeta Taskforce posted:http://www.politico.com//story/2015/08/jeb-bush-2016-fundraising-slowing-121729.html There's a reason the money guys are starting to move away from Jeb!: Montasque posted:Is Jeb Bush even trying to escape the specter of his brother? Montasque posted:They really do... quote:Last week, supporters received a fundraising appeal from the former Florida governor’s brother, in which he wrote, “I rarely send emails like this, but I wanted to make sure I asked for your support on behalf of my brother, Jeb.” He doesn't show any signs of stopping either.
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Aug 26, 2015 19:39
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Oh man... Jorge... Goddamn.
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Aug 26, 2015 19:40
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railroad terror posted:
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Aug 26, 2015 19:51
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Oh man... Jorge... drat who was that dude who said to get out of this country?
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Aug 26, 2015 19:53
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Why can't the US have a reasonable discussion about border security without one side degenerating into disgusting racism, and the other side pretending that letting people skip customs and immigration entirely is Cool and Good? Also, and I've both sides do this: why is there such an assumption that Latino people and illegal immigrants are one and the same? And why the gently caress is "securing the border" taken to mean "closing the border"? I secure my apartment by having a door with a lock on it, but that doesn't mean I can't let people in and out.
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Aug 26, 2015 20:01
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Did you just wake up from a coma, or something?
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Aug 26, 2015 20:03
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railroad terror posted:
This graph might work better if it was labeled. I have no idea what it is measuring.
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Aug 26, 2015 20:03
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David Duke has endorsed Trump. http://www.theroot.com/articles/news/2015/08/former_kkk_grand_wizard_david_duke_endorses_trump_for_president.html
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Aug 26, 2015 20:03
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n.m
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Aug 26, 2015 20:04
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The X-man cometh posted:you mean "Clinton", "GOP Field", and "Undecided" along the top? the y axis just has numbers
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Aug 26, 2015 20:05
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Vox Nihili posted:Basically, most of the experts seem to think that early polling, especially at the national level, has almost no predictive power in the primary. This is based on analysis of past primaries. Things like endorsements and financing do have predictive power. I'm not throwing anything out. I'm weighting things in what I feel to be fair context, and so far my opinions have been more predictive (granted, I know it is quite early) than the "experts" or people parroting the "experts" here, such as yourself. Can't wait for more mental gymnastics rationalizing your obviously bad and way-off predictions/understanding regarding what's going on here as being correct, both in the short- and long-term. So good to know your predictions: Bush/Rubio are "more likely" and Hillary is "far the most likely candidate." I wonder what tune you were singing just a couple of weeks ago about Trump's chances. I'm guessing (I could be wrong about this guess, but I have a feeling I'm not) the words "not a chance" were closer to what you were saying than "has a shot." Keep on holding to those "expert" opinions, bro. Dahbadu fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 20:05
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PT6A posted:Why can't the US have a reasonable discussion about border security without one side degenerating into disgusting racism, and the other side pretending that letting people skip customs and immigration entirely is Cool and Good? Also, and I've both sides do this: why is there such an assumption that Latino people and illegal immigrants are one and the same? Buddy, you're going to get snarked at so hard for this post, you don't even know.
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Aug 26, 2015 20:07
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The dream (at least one of them) is dead.  Trump Telling GOP Brass He Will Forego A Third-Party Run: Sources
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Aug 26, 2015 20:08
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richardfun posted:The dream (at least one of them) is dead. Well hes gonna get the nomination so
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Aug 26, 2015 20:10
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Oh man... Jorge... ¿Quién es este idiota?
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Aug 26, 2015 20:11
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richardfun posted:The dream (at least one of them) is dead. Go ahead and pretend he wouldn't change his mind if he lost the nomination. If.
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Aug 26, 2015 20:17
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blue squares posted:This graph might work better if it was labeled. I have no idea what it is measuring. My bad: "The chart above shows a combined average of every single national poll taken since March 1 of this year that pits Clinton against the 10 leading Republican candidates—197 matchups in all, courtesy of Huffington Post Pollster. The key takeaway, as you can see from the blue and red trendlines, is that the race has been remarkably static."
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Aug 26, 2015 20:22
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Dahbadu posted:I'm not throwing anything out. I'm putting things in context, and so far my opinions have been more predictive (granted, I know it is quite early) than the "experts" or people parroting the "experts" here, such as yourself. Can't wait for more mental gymnastics rationalizing your obviously bad and way-off predictions regarding what's going on here as being correct, both in the short- and long-term. The problem is that being predictive of things so far is pretty loving useless in the larger sense, since it's still like 5 months until Iowa. Also, sometimes it really actually just is too early to make definitive predictions. Sometimes it really is too early to tell. That's a legitimate justifiable position to take. It's not cowardice.
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Aug 26, 2015 20:24
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railroad terror posted:My bad: People are realizing Hillary and the republican candidates are all poo poo at roughly the same rate.
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Aug 26, 2015 20:24
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richardfun posted:The dream (at least one of them) is dead. This is probably not a good idea for Trump. He claims he wants the GOP to treat him fairly, but at least 2 states have considered changing the rules solely to attack him. If he makes this promise, the only thing that will happen is that the top brass of the GOP will be relieved that they can attempt to screw him with no repercussions. If he's holding a 3rd party run over their heads as leverage - then what's the point of caving before a single vote has been cast? Any chance for electoral fuckery will be when delegates are being handed out, and then if a Trump worst-case scenario happens, they throw up their hands and say "Welp! You promised...too bad, try again in 4 years". Agreeing to this would be showing weakness and that will be the beginning of the end for his campaign. Don't do it Trump! It's a trap!
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Aug 26, 2015 20:32
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Oh man... Jorge... This is vile... Unfortunately I believe this will help Trump's GOP poll numbers...
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Aug 26, 2015 20:35
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