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Ardennes posted:
I could see a Brazil narrative being a thing, especially going into the Olympics.
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Aug 27, 2015 20:55
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I thought that the Brazil narrative rose and fell back in the early oughts.
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Aug 27, 2015 20:57
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The next narrative will be about the vile Frank.
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Aug 27, 2015 20:59
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I'd say that Brazil has the best chance out of the BRICs.
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Aug 27, 2015 20:59
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computer parts posted:I could see a Brazil narrative being a thing, especially going into the Olympics. Doubtful unless something changes. Rousseff is in the single digits in approval ratings and their economy went down the shitter a while ago due in part to poor investments in oil extraction and refining.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:00
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How do we define success for a BRIC country? Obviously none of them are going to overtake the US or EU in any meaningful measure anytime soon but I guess somehow reaching Japan levels of development?
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Aug 27, 2015 21:02
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Fojar38 posted:Japan levels of development? Most of Europe wishes it could reach Japan levels of development, so that's unrealistic. Just breaking out of the middle income trap would be a huge success for a BRICS.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:07
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Poland levels of development.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:09
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Fojar38 posted:How do we define success for a BRIC country? Obviously none of them are going to overtake the US or EU in any meaningful measure anytime soon but I guess somehow reaching Japan levels of development? Being at least as nice to live in for the average population as say, France.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:10
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Fojar38 posted:Relations between the US and India are sufficiently good that hopefully people won't have to sell a "peaceful rise" narrative, not that it matters because India is even more contained by geography than China is. Japan was a firm US ally across the Cold War, and it didn't help them. Hell, there were theories circulating that Japan would rearm and attack the US. Fear-mongering doesn't really need much reality attached to it. ------- I wouldn't bet on Brazil, they were very reliant on exporting commodities to China for most of the 2000s and if China is going down they are taking Brazil and the other exporters with them. If anything the Olympics (along with the World Cup) has become a farcical white elephant in the minds of the Brazilian public for good reason.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:14
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I think there's not going to be one country as the next boogeyman but a China -Russia axis and all the assorted minor allies.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:47
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India will never be a superpower, it is too fragmented and internally hostile. Besides, the path of development they're taking is to create some tech jobs here and there, letting a small portion of the population jump to the level of service economy while they don't even have basic infrastructure like running water in much of the country.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:53
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Generalized chaos brought on by numerous factors is how I see it; general global economic decline and malaise in combination with global warming's effects on food production and human migration is scary to me.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:53
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I was born at the right time to see the world go to poo poo. gently caress you kids(got mine).
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Aug 27, 2015 21:55
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Capitalism can no longer rely on growth in emerging markets or the "chinese middle class" to fuel growth, so their energies will now turn to cutting wages and benefits in developed countries. Hyper-austerity, if you will.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:57
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If you live in the West you'll be fine.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:57
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Fojar38 posted:If you live in the West you'll be fine. Nah: 
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Aug 27, 2015 21:58
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Zohar posted:Nah The entire population of China could disappear, Left Behind style, tomorrow and the West would ultimately be fine.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:59
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Fojar38 posted:The entire population of China could disappear, Left Behind style, tomorrow and the West would ultimately be fine. Well yeah the West was also 'ultimately fine' after the Great Depression but that doesn't mean that 'if you (emphasis on the you) live in the West you'll be fine'
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Aug 27, 2015 22:00
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OwlBot 2000 posted:India will never be a superpower, it is too fragmented and internally hostile. Besides, the path of development they're taking is to create some tech jobs here and there, letting a small portion of the population jump to the level of service economy while they don't even have basic infrastructure like running water in much of the country. To emphasize:  e: Here's a better map 
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Aug 27, 2015 22:12
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Glad to know I'll have a place to crap next time I'm passing through Aksai Chin.
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Aug 27, 2015 22:22
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Vladimir Putin posted:I think there's not going to be one country as the next boogeyman but a China -Russia axis and all the assorted minor allies. Honestly the US is so far ahead of the BRICs developmentally and economically I don't think we'll ever see a repeat of the late 80s Japan panic. Cold War stuff with Russia/China sure, but an actual threat of being eclipsed economically? Never Adventure Pigeon posted:Yeah, the 1990s are when things get bad, but if you look at the demographics, there's still a lot more people that're 35-50 than there are under 35, aside from that small spike that probably happened around 1990? icantfindaname posted:I look forwards to posting on the internet 20 years from now about how Vietnam is the inscrtuable Oriental superpower come to reclaim its 5000 year destined place at the center of the universe with its all-knowing bureacratic economic planners and lack of pesky multiparty democracy and free press icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 22:46
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It's too early to write off China. What it's been a couple of bad days at the stock market and everybody is talking about loving a mad max China already.
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Aug 27, 2015 22:51
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Vladimir Putin posted:It's too early to write off China. What it's been a couple of bad days at the stock market and everybody is talking about loving a mad max China already. I 'wrote China off' circa 2011 if that helps.
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Aug 27, 2015 22:52
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Vladimir Putin posted:It's too early to write off China. What it's been a couple of bad days at the stock market and everybody is talking about loving a mad max China already. China's been declining economically for a few years now, this crash is just highly visible and hence the media has finally taken notice of China's economic weakness. Since all that China had going for it until now was an aura of infinite and invincible growth that's a big loving deal.
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Aug 27, 2015 23:02
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I mean the thing is that, yes, the Chinese stock market doesn't mean much on its own in terms of its technical relation to the rest of the Chinese economy, and yes as far as the Shanghai composite goes this is clearly a rather recent bubble that's popping -- but there are other issues at stake. #1 in terms of immediacy is that the stock market is a very big and very visible indicator, and the Chinese government has taken it upon itself to view the market as an indicator of Chinese prestige. One of the first concerns this year, for example, came when the market didn't obediently rise to celebrate Xi Jinping's birthday. This means the government acts like a bull in a china shop and makes silly decisions in order to preserve its perceived prestige -- at the expense of sound economic policy. The broader problem, though, is that the Chinese economy has been slowing down for some years now and the fires that it's been throwing up, and which the Chinese government has had to run around to put out, are getting increasingly difficult to contain. On top of deterring investment in itself, the stock market crash is throwing a hard spotlight on the other, much more serious issues -- like the failure of the shift to internal consumption as reflected in collapsing manufacturing data. In that context it's just a light to the powder keg, and if the tide doesn't break now there'll be plenty more seizures to come where it might.
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Aug 27, 2015 23:14
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Fojar38 posted:Calling NK a nuclear power is pretty generous. NK is ethnically homogeneous and is relatively socially stable, all things considered. On top of the typical regional political rivalries and class-conflicts you see in any country, India is a simmering mass of religious, ethnic, and caste/clan conflicts which explodes into violence pretty regularly.
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Aug 27, 2015 23:17
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icantfindaname posted:Honestly the US is so far ahead of the BRICs developmentally and economically I don't think we'll ever see a repeat of the late 80s Japan panic. Cold War stuff with Russia/China sure, but an actual threat of being eclipsed economically? Never Yeah, I must've remembered your Vietnam post when I wrote that. We do get dumb as hell over the "next world power" in the US. Hell, we were panicing over Japan while we were still basically occupying them.
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Aug 27, 2015 23:17
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It will never end. In 500 years, our distant progeny in the Yellowstone eruption buried subterranean megacities of Walmart-Koch Neomerica will hear over the infocapsules about how CyberKhan XxX_KimJongDo_XxX and his horde of lizard riding MegaMongols are creating a groundbreaking system based on the sound OmniChicago Economic School principles of cannibalism and banditry that shall surely sweep away the old paste-based order and Are Country (trademark Fox NewNews) shall be subservient to them until the moon finally crashes into the earth later in the decade.
Adventure Pigeon fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Aug 28, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 23:30
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You did it China. Crash is over.
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Aug 28, 2015 04:21
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Cultural Imperial posted:You did it China. Crash is over. Its 'Stable'. I need some real growth before I buy that.
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Aug 28, 2015 04:25
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Zohar posted:In that context it's just a light to the powder keg, and if the tide doesn't break now there'll be plenty more seizures to come where it might. While I think your assessment is very solid, your metaphors are getting alarmingly mixed.
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Aug 28, 2015 04:32
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computer parts posted:To emphasize: Oh wow, you mean 4chan might not have lied about india having designated making GBS threads streets?
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Aug 28, 2015 04:49
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Lol if you think they designate a specific street, it's just all over the loving place.
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Aug 28, 2015 04:51
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superior chinese system has removed risk and crashes from decadent capitalist system, invest and revive the A-shares now
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Aug 28, 2015 05:02
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Wasn't the Chinese economy fuckity hosed just a moment ago? 
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Aug 28, 2015 05:38
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Grouchio posted:Wasn't the Chinese economy fuckity hosed just a moment ago? It still is.
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Aug 28, 2015 05:47
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Grouchio posted:Wasn't the Chinese economy fuckity hosed just a moment ago? Oh, the Chinese economy is still hosed. It's just that the mask slipped off for a bit over the last few days, but rest assured, it is now securely fastened once again. not really
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Aug 28, 2015 06:26
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Yeah we got about 2 weeks, maybe a month tops before those foreign cash reserves and pensions run out. Then the real fun begins.
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Aug 28, 2015 08:17
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So Zero Hedge keeps saying the end is near and that China dumping treasuries is QE in reverse. How true is all that?
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Aug 28, 2015 08:51
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