Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Spoeank posted:

Belichicanery

Well done.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:05

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 18:49

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Trades before week one in redraft make me laugh. It's basically the worst time to trade because everyone's still got that shiny new toy feeling on them. Best time for trade is underperforming guys in weeks 3 and 4 due to schedule or other factors.

I don't know if I agree with pre-week 1 redraft trades always being bad. I missed out on Lamar Miller in two of my leagues and managed to trade for him in both over the last few days because people still equate player value to which round they got him. I.E. Miller is a "third rounder" because that is where someone got him which I am happy to pay because I think he will overperform.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:06

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Spoeank posted:

Williams. Brandon Bolden could get 90% of the snaps or 10% of them.

Counterpoint: DeAngelo Williams sucks.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:16

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

kiimo posted:

Counterpoint: DeAngelo Williams sucks.

Counterpoint: We know he is playing week 1.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:18

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

If you are just putting up a trade and not talking to the person, yeah that poo poo will just get rejected. I also don't buy the idea that all trades are about one guy trying to get the best of the other. I always tend to be very strong at one position, and once that happens, I examine the rosters of the other teams and figure out who is the weakest at that position. Then I look at who they might have that would help improve me. It isn't hard to make a trade that works for both teams.

It also helps if you can explain why you are approaching the trade the way you are. Spell it out logically. I have guys try to tell me why such and such players are worth more than they are, and I just use production as my baseline. Sometimes, what they feel is more important, but a lot of the time logic can prevail. You just need to learn how to logically sell magic beans. :v:

Thanks for the advice on Coleman. I am currently building a team off of waiver wire garbage. My receivers are trash. I really need McFadden or Morris to have some great games so I can flip one of them.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:19

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

cheese posted:

Counterpoint: We know he is playing week 1.

Oh I own him in one league. I just have owned him before. After years of the same old poo poo you just have to force yourself to blame someone other than Jonathan Stewart. I have a feeling me and many others are going to drop him after week one but I could be wrong. He's old and busted.

Now watch him score three touchdowns.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:21

VietCampo: Aug 24, 2010

cheese posted:

Counterpoint: We know he is playing week 1.

Counterpoint: They are playing the Pats week 1, they are going to pass a lot more than run. Probably even in the red zone/goalline.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:26

Ty1990: Apr 22, 2011

Picked up Danny Amendola. I don't know.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:36

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Ty1990 posted:

Picked up Danny Amendola. I don't know.

Scott Chandler imo.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:39

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Stop touching the poop

# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:57

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

Are we doing trade advice in here or in the "rate my team" thread?

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:08

tonic: Jan 4, 2003

Should Jonas Gray be dropped or is he likely to be picked up by another team?

Was really hoping to play him week 1 since I have Bell. Is DeAngelo Williams a reasonable RB2 play week 1?

Also, gently caress the Patriots.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:08

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

tonic posted:

Should Jonas Gray be dropped or is he likely to be picked up by another team?

I can't imagine him being picked up by anyone who makes you go "OH poo poo I should have kept Gray!"

tonic posted:

Was really hoping to play him week 1 since I have Bell. Is DeAngelo Williams a reasonable RB2 play week 1?

I think he is, yes. Its easy to imagine him stumbling across the goal line at least once behind that offense.

tonic posted:

Also, gently caress the Patriots.

Never trust the Hoodie man.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:10

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

Snagged Jordy Nelson in the last round before K and D and am gonna ride him on the bench, no IR, until I know I have 3 keepers for next year, lose first 3 picks, so no value, but if everyone sucks, I will just keep him. Also, is Pryor worth a flyer, or just wait and see on him? And, should not have drafted Lafell I guess

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:11

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

Forever_Peace posted:

Wait, Titans cut Nicks AND McBride? Is DGB that close to taking on big share? How can they only roster 4 wrs? Surely they'd bring in a 5th?

Paging Metapod - wtf is your team doing.

They kept 5 tightends so I guess a lot of two tightend and jumbo sets

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:12

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Metapod posted:

They kept 5 tightends so I guess a lot of two tightend and jumbo sets

Lol I had no idea. Jesus, FIVE? I could name only one right now and I'd probably misspell his first name (ey or ie I can never remember).

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:41

Enforka: Dec 24, 2004

cheese posted:

I can't imagine him being picked up by anyone who makes you go "OH poo poo I should have kept Gray!"

I'm not saying he's going there, but I could imagine him getting signed by Dallas. They were in talks to get Terrence West from Cleveland too, apparently.

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:41

Splinter: Jul 4, 2003; Cowabunga!

BeerSheets question. A 10 team league I'm in added an additional flex, giving us 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2flex. Should I use 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1flex or 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1flex sheet for values?

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:54

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

Forever_Peace posted:

Lol I had no idea. Jesus, FIVE? I could name only one right now and I'd probably misspell his first name (ey or ie I can never remember).

Walker Fasano Stevens Coffman and Supernaw!!!!

# ? Sep 5, 2015 23:59

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Metapod posted:

Walker Fasano Stevens Coffman and Supernaw!!!!

Oh no way, Fasano? Wasn't he on KC or something?

# ? Sep 6, 2015 00:05

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

Forever_Peace posted:

Oh no way, Fasano? Wasn't he on KC or something?

Last year yes

# ? Sep 6, 2015 00:14

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

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code:


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PM for an invite. Bring your A-Game!

SPOTS OPEN: 5/12

# ? Sep 6, 2015 00:17

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

I give Julio Jones and J Stewart, I get Lynch and Greg Olsen.

12 team standard scoring, would give me a team of

QB: Sam Bradford
WR: Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Vincent Jackson
RB: CJ Anderson, Lynch, Chris Ivory, Crowell, Ronnie Hillman, Ryan Mathews, Gio Bernard
TE: Greg Olsen (would drop Heath Miller, current TE)

I worry about going to 3 WR's especially since the wire is drat thin. Think I would need to try to trade Gio or Crowell for WR with upside like Stevie Johnson. Thoughts?

# ? Sep 6, 2015 00:43

ZIGfried: Nov 4, 2005; I can hardly contain myself!

Enforka posted:

I'm not saying he's going there, but I could imagine him getting signed by Dallas. They were in talks to get Terrence West from Cleveland too, apparently.

Fantasy Football 2015: Every Roster Bubble RB is going to be signed by Dallas

# ? Sep 6, 2015 00:50

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Three most dropped players in Yahoo by a mile:

Don't trust Bill Belichick

# ? Sep 6, 2015 01:34

Fleetwood: Mar 26, 2010; biggest hochul head in china

Is Arian Foster worth a late 2nd/early 3rd RND pick now? I was just checking the Sablich Bros. ranks and they have him at 22.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 02:30

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Fleetwood posted:

Is Arian Foster worth a late 2nd/early 3rd RND pick now? I was just checking the Sablich Bros. ranks and they have him at 22.

Absolutely not. He is maybe worth a 7th but even then I don't like it unless you are already really strong.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 02:33

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Fleetwood posted:

Is Arian Foster worth a late 2nd/early 3rd RND pick now? I was just checking the Sablich Bros. ranks and they have him at 22.

It's pretty risky taking him so early. His timetable for return is supposedly late September to early October, but that's assuming no setbacks. Given Foster's history, you'll have to decide whether you're willing to take that risk or not. He'll probably miss 2 to 5 games to start the season, so even if he stays healthy the rest of the year, you'll be missing out on something like 15-30% of the year from him. I wouldn't feel comfortable spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a guy that will miss that much and that will likely be banged up and potentially miss time later in the year too. I'd probably take him anytime from the 5th on, but I'm pretty bullish on Foster.

MrSargent posted:

Absolutely not. He is maybe worth a 7th but even then I don't like it unless you are already really strong.

This is too pessimistic imo. Last year he missed 3 games and was still like a top 5 RB. The uncertainty regarding his return dampens his value a good bit, but even if he misses a quarter of the season, he's a great bet to be a top 15 RB.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 02:38

VietCampo: Aug 24, 2010

VietCampo posted:

Yea, that's how i feel about Miller, what would you think about me countering with Andre Ellington + Aghalor for Keenan Allen + Melvin Gordon?

So i worked out a deal giving up Ellington + Aghalor for Keenan Allen + Abdullah, i'm really liking this trade. On one side, Abdullah has the potential and situation to do as well or better than Ellington and i think Keenan Allen gives me an upgrade over Aghalor.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 02:39

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Spoeank posted:

Three most dropped players in Yahoo by a mile:

Don't trust Bill Belichick

Amazing. That's art.

Foster was a late first early second prior to injury. If he does only miss three games he's an easy early third. Personally, though, I'm not convinced he'll be full steam that fast, and being forced to hold him though the first bye week is a big problem. Bottom line, I'd probably do late 4th standard, 3/4 turn ppr.

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 02:54 on Sep 6, 2015

# ? Sep 6, 2015 02:42

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Spoeank posted:

Three most dropped players in Yahoo by a mile:

Don't trust Bill Belichick

New thread title pls. The image.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 02:44

Kloaked00: Jun 21, 2005; I was sitting in my office on that drizzly afternoon listening to the monotonous staccato of rain on my desk and reading my name on the glass of my office door: regnaD kciN

Going to be drafting 3rd in a 12-man nonPPR league. Still trying to figure out my first 4 rounds. Obviously first pick is going to get me one of Peterson / Lacy / Charles / Bell. For rounds 2 and 3 I'm still debating to go WR-RB or WR-WR. 4th round will be getting a 2nd of whichever of RB/WR I only have one of.

If I go WR-WR, RBs my WR1/2 will likely be some combination of Jeffery / Evans / Hilton / Hopkins / Cooks and my RB2 will be in the range of Ivory / Ellington / Yeldon
If I go WR-RB, I can still get a solid WR1, my RB2 will likely be Miller / Gore / Ingram and my WR2 will in the be Tate / Johnson / Allen range

I feel like there's more upside WRs like Mike Wallace, Allen Robinson, Steve Johnson that I could pick up later and still give me low WR2 / WR3 production, whereas that's probably not as likely with RBs. Am I overthinking this?

# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:11

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

WHO IS ACTUALLY ON THE PATS

# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:23

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

RVProfootballer posted:

It's pretty risky taking him so early. His timetable for return is supposedly late September to early October, but that's assuming no setbacks. Given Foster's history, you'll have to decide whether you're willing to take that risk or not. He'll probably miss 2 to 5 games to start the season, so even if he stays healthy the rest of the year, you'll be missing out on something like 15-30% of the year from him. I wouldn't feel comfortable spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a guy that will miss that much and that will likely be banged up and potentially miss time later in the year too. I'd probably take him anytime from the 5th on, but I'm pretty bullish on Foster.

This is too pessimistic imo. Last year he missed 3 games and was still like a top 5 RB. The uncertainty regarding his return dampens his value a good bit, but even if he misses a quarter of the season, he's a great bet to be a top 15 RB.

Maybe I'm pessimistic but he's talking about taking an injured player In the 2nd or 3rd when it's not a light injury and one he has had problems with in the past. I love Arian Foster but I am not excited about him starting off the season injured.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:32

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

I agree that something along the lines of Lacy/Evans/Gore is probably the best start that could be expected from that spot in 12 team, but honestly that spot is great for chancing onto unexpected early value this year. It's not unheard of to see Gronk or McCoy fall to the late second (where I'd have a hard time passing them in standard), or Luck to the early third. Picking late I have very clear targets (CJA / Julio), but picking early this year I prefer letting the second round value dictate where I go.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:36

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Forever_Peace posted:

I agree that something along the lines of Lacy/Evans/Gore is probably the best start that could be expected from that spot in 12 team, but honestly that spot is great for chancing onto unexpected early value this year. It's not unheard of to see Gronk or McCoy fall to the late second (where I'd have a hard time passing them in standard), or Luck to the early third. Picking late I have very clear targets (CJA / Julio), but picking early this year I prefer letting the second round value dictate where I go.

In standard I would not think about Gronk until the 3rd. I would secure RBs in 1/2 and then go to the very deep WR class at 3/4. RBs are not deep, but maybe at pick 3.3 you could have a shot at Lamar Miller, might be worth the risk for a top WR. I'm high on Miller this year though.

# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:45

Fat Lowtax: Nov 9, 2008; "I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"

What kind of blood oath do I have to make to see "QB/WR" (lol) Terrelle Pryor get the Browns QB job down the stretch this year? Even a dogshit QB is basically a WR1 in non-PPR leagues, right?

# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:47

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

Fat Lowtax posted:

What kind of blood oath do I have to make to see "QB/WR" (lol) Terrelle Pryor get the Browns QB job down the stretch this year? Even a dogshit QB is basically a WR1 in non-PPR leagues, right?

Well we usually go through at least 3 a year, so sounds like a plan, thanks for the heads up!

# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:53

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Someone just dropped the Bills D/ST for the Colts. Am I missing something here or did that guy WAY overread into his defense?

# ? Sep 6, 2015 04:03

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 18:49

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

MrSargent posted:

In standard I would not think about Gronk until the 3rd. I would secure RBs in 1/2 and then go to the very deep WR class at 3/4. RBs are not deep, but maybe at pick 3.3 you could have a shot at Lamar Miller, might be worth the risk for a top WR. I'm high on Miller this year though.

You'd have to be crazy not to take Gronk over Miller in any league with a TE spot, even in standard. You don't even need to understand positional scarcity - there's a pretty good chance Gronk outscores Miller outright. What on earth are you thinking?

Edit: alright I guess you didn't say that directly but you imply that Miller should likely go higher than 3.3 while Gronk should not which just seems totally backwards to me.

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 04:08 on Sep 6, 2015

# ? Sep 6, 2015 04:05

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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