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Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

KillHour posted:

Yes. Right after Yahweh, Allah, Vishnu, Jesus and Buddha combine to form Megazord to fight Mecha Hitler Godzilla.

If this is the apocalypse then let's get started, it's way better than the poo poo we have going on down here.

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Cephalocidal posted:

If Trump deals enough lasting damage to the rest of them the GOP will rehab him for the general even if he flames out. They'll wash the slime off and prop him back up as their least worst chance at saving the downticket slots.

Nah, they'd run a potted plant over Trump if they get half a chance.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Dolash posted:


So here's a question, let's say that the three big names were unable to recover, but Trump still burned out somehow. Which of the remaining candidates look best positioned to fill that void, who would the establishment and the base stand to settle for if forced to?

Carson, Fiorina, and Cruz. You can ad Santorum but his base is Carson and cruz's.

Edit: asked something stupid and don't want to risk it.

Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 08:27 on Sep 6, 2015

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

Youth Decay posted:

Yesterday I went to a little county fair in a tiny town in bumfuck nowhere, Virginia. Basically Redneck Prime. There was a David Allan Coe concert last night and it had exactly the kind of crowd you'd expect would attend a David Allan Coe concert in 2015. Confederate flags every-loving-where.

In the tent where they had all the local so-and-so's for clerk of court, school board member, commonwealth attorney, etc. booths there was a big Ben Carson For President booth with a sizable crowd around it. Wearing their confederate flag wifebeaters. Absolutely surreal. I thought he was the candidate of the Not Racist Buts but he's also the candidate of the Unapologetically Racists.

None of the other presidential candidates had any sort of booths there. Carson has a serious ground game.
I just can't understand this image of the prewar South guys like that they claim to have that doesn't have slavery front and center in it.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Samurai Sanders posted:

I just can't understand this image of the prewar South guys like that they claim to have that doesn't have slavery front and center in it.

It's one of those "ceci n'est pas une pipe" things. It had slavery, they know it, you know it, and they know you know it. They just keep saying it doesn't because they want to idolize the concept of the slave-owning social structure without incurring the full disdain of society. So, they pull this "me or your lyin' eyes" poo poo so you're busy trying to puzzle that one out while they nod sagely like they have some secret truth those drat yankee book larnin's ain't never told yins the truth about.

Alec Bald Snatch
Sep 12, 2012

by exmarx

Samurai Sanders posted:

I just can't understand this image of the prewar South guys like that they claim to have that doesn't have slavery front and center in it.

It's glossed over by focusing on the ostentatious displays of wealth among the planter aristocracy, era of gracious living and all that.

Or if you're the Charleston Museum handwaved by saying "Well that rice and cotton weren't gonna pick itself."

Dolash
Oct 23, 2008

aNYWAY,
tHAT'S REALLY ALL THERE IS,
tO REPORT ON THE SUBJECT,
oF ME GETTING HURT,


Vox Nihili posted:

Nah, they'd run a potted plant over Trump if they get half a chance.

Yeah, I think that's right. Trump could only rip the nomination from the fingers of the GOP over their last ounce of resistance, riding a populist wave so huge the establishment was cowed into defeat and figured sacrificing the electoral cycle was worth the price of keeping the party intact. Even in that case I think the establishment figures would probably all but go into hiding, giving lip service about the importance of beating the Democrats and just trying to stay out of the fallout.

It's not just a matter of winning or policies, Trump has offended mainstream discourse and leveled unforgivable, base, vulgar insults against his competitors (and anyone in tweet-range). On a purely personal level quite a lot of the establishment simply couldn't endorse him, to do so would be the lowest act of capitulation and cowardice that even their own supporters and the media at large would notice.

If by true madness Trump became President there's no doubt in my mind the Democrats and Republicans in the lame duck session would pass bipartisan legislation curtailing the President's power for Obama to sign into law while he still could.

SirKibbles
Feb 27, 2011

I didn't like your old red text so here's some dancing cash. :10bux:

Dolash posted:

Yeah, I think that's right. Trump could only rip the nomination from the fingers of the GOP over their last ounce of resistance, riding a populist wave so huge the establishment was cowed into defeat and figured sacrificing the electoral cycle was worth the price of keeping the party intact. Even in that case I think the establishment figures would probably all but go into hiding, giving lip service about the importance of beating the Democrats and just trying to stay out of the fallout.

It's not just a matter of winning or policies, Trump has offended mainstream discourse and leveled unforgivable, base, vulgar insults against his competitors (and anyone in tweet-range). On a purely personal level quite a lot of the establishment simply couldn't endorse him, to do so would be the lowest act of capitulation and cowardice that even their own supporters and the media at large would notice.


If by true madness Trump became President there's no doubt in my mind the Democrats and Republicans in the lame duck session would pass bipartisan legislation curtailing the President's power for Obama to sign into law while he still could.

Why goons love Trump. txt

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

comes along bort posted:

It's glossed over by focusing on the ostentatious displays of wealth among the planter aristocracy, era of gracious living and all that.

Or if you're the Charleston Museum handwaved by saying "Well that rice and cotton weren't gonna pick itself."

Back when men knew their place, the farm equipment knew their place, and women were to be seen and not heard while sipping juleps amidst the crepe myrtles as summer thunderstorms rolled in off the cape.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.
"The pledge was very specific: not to run as a third party candidate. And I'm not!" - Trump, moments after Hillary picked him for VP and ushered in the Broken Age.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Trump's the gift that keeps on giving.



Why no, asking those kinds of questions that are clearly nothing like what a reporter should ask the next leader of the free world. :allears:

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Montasque posted:

In this article, terrible human being and TRUE CONSERVATIVE, Jonah Goldberg has a full on melt down thanks to Donald Trump:

No Movement That Embraces Trump Can Call Itself Conservative


The human toilet is the GOP.

EDIT: I like this part too:

I love that "true conservatives" just can't understand why their base loves Trump. People like Goldberg believe that their ideology and beliefs are so pure, so infallible, so universally correct that everyone should bask in their glory but, when the rubes decide to follow a new pied piper well they are just the ignorant lumpen masses, incapable of thinking for themselves.

Also Jonah Goldberg is a worthless human being.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Trump's the gift that keeps on giving.



Why no, asking those kinds of questions that are clearly nothing like what a reporter should ask the next leader of the free world. :allears:

It's like this should be funny, but it just seems like all his insult tweets are the same.

Blattdorf
Aug 10, 2012

"This will be the best for both of us, Bradley."
"Meow."

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Trump's the gift that keeps on giving.



Why no, asking those kinds of questions that are clearly nothing like what a reporter should ask the next leader of the free world. :allears:

Hewitt did Trump a favour, since now he knows he has to brush up a little bit before the big debate.

Also, Trump could have handled this situation way better than he did. But that's very-high-energy Trump for you.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Trump's the gift that keeps on giving.



Why no, asking those kinds of questions that are clearly nothing like what a reporter should ask the next leader of the free world. :allears:

I'll give you al-Baghdadi, but to be honest I couldn't have told you off-hand who Nasrallah was either. Even if I generally know where Hezbollah stands religiously and ideologically and what their situation is.

I don't know if it reflects that badly on Trump, I'm sure people like Reagan or Bush were often unable to answer questions a hundred times more simple.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

Phlegmish posted:

I'll give you al-Baghdadi, but to be honest I couldn't have told you off-hand who Nasrallah was either.

Me neither, but then again, I'm not running for president of the United States.

quote:

I don't know if it reflects that badly on Trump, I'm sure people like Reagan or Bush were often unable to answer questions a hundred times more simple.

Are we talking Bush Sr. or Jr. here? Because Bush Sr. was pretty well versed in foreign affairs.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

In a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is Trump to get elected? How likely is Bernie?

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Grouchio posted:

In a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is Trump to get elected? How likely is Bernie?

0

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Grouchio posted:

In a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is Trump to get elected? How likely is Bernie?

Close to zero and it's also extremely unlikely that he'll run independent- he'd need to start doing the groundwork for that like months ago.

SirKibbles
Feb 27, 2011

I didn't like your old red text so here's some dancing cash. :10bux:
I'll go so far as to say it's impossible for an independent candidate to get elected in this country with the currently election rules ,unless one of the major parties are trying to pull shenanigans and it backfires.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
That said, the Bernie people are going to like this NBC/Marist New Hampshire poll.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
She's simply amazing.

Kempo Yellow Belt
Jan 5, 2012
Fun Shoe

Joementum posted:

She's simply amazing.



i could swear she has said this before.


ha. more recently that position is being given to someone with a background in physics, no?


Grouchio posted:

In a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is Trump to get elected? How likely is Bernie?

0 for trump

i'd say a solid 5 for berndog

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Why Trump won't win:

quote:

But can Donald Trump really win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?

Knowledgable people think he might. They include some journalists, some former Republican consultants and operatives, talk show host Bill Maher and a contestant from season three of NBC’s The Apprentice, who now is co-chairperson of Trump’s Iowa operation.

But more-knowledgable people think he won’t. They include the quants and geeks, some Republican consultants and operatives, and lots of political scientists.

A trio of political data experts empanelled by FiveThirtyEight for a podcast earlier this month estimated Trump’s chances of snagging the nomination at 2%, 0% and minus-10%, respectively.

“If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong,” Larry Sabato, head of the center for politics at the University of Virginia, wrote last week.

Even political analysts who are highly convinced that Trump cannot win hesitate to state outright: “Trump cannot win”. After all, high political office is cluttered with people who weren’t supposed to be able to win.

But the smart money is stacked against Trump – stacked as tall as one of his awesome towers. The argument goes like this.

Polls this far out don’t mean much
Early polling is not very predictive. Especially polling more than 300 days out. (We have 444 days to go.) There are charts that illustrate this. But there are also instructive examples – as well as exceptions.For nearly six weeks, in survey after survey, Trump has soared above the rest of the field by a double-digit margin. It’s a dramatic performance, one the candidate himself is clearly exhilarated by.

Except when you overlay it with, for example, the arc of the early frontrunner in the 2008 Republican nominating race, Rudy Giuliani:

quote:


[quote]Trump does not have the support he needs from the Republican party to win the Republican nomination.

Karol’s 2008 book, The Party Decides, which he co-authored with the political scientists Marty Cohen, Hans Noel and John Zaller, analyzes presidential nomination races from 1980 to 2004 and concludes that “early endorsements in the invisible primary are the most important cause of candidate success in the state primaries and caucuses”.

More important than total fundraising, more important than what the prediction markets say – and more important than polls.

Endorsements matter not only because they point to who insiders think will win, but also because the people who make endorsements – other elected officials – can influence the outcome of the race by strengthening a candidate’s local ground game, promoting the candidate to fellow party leaders and pitching the candidate to voters.

Trump is performing miserably in the “invisible primary” race for endorsements. An interactive endorsement tracker built by FiveThiryEight has former Florida governor Jeb Bush in the lead and Trump not even on the list. A tally by the New York Times also has Bush first, with Trump in 12th place.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/22/donald-trump-wont-win-republican-presidential-nomination

The unfavorability numbers are dated, but there's still some good stuff there, especially the Guiliani comparisons, and the endorsement factor.

DivineCoffeeBinge
Mar 3, 2011

Spider-Man's Amazing Construction Company
I'd give Bernie a solid 2 - and that's as someone who's donated to his campaign and wears his T-shirts out in public. Willingly, even. A lot of things would have to go just right to get Bernie elected, but I do think he's got a shot.

Trump? 0.01. It'd take a miracle.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

Samurai Sanders posted:

I just can't understand this image of the prewar South guys like that they claim to have that doesn't have slavery front and center in it.

The same reason LARPers and SCA people love the middle ages. A romanticized view of the time based on movies and literature (Gone with the Wind, etc.) and a belief that if they were alive back then, they'd be the aristocracy and not the bottom of the ladder.

Good Citizen
Aug 12, 2008

trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump

Just to confirm, that's the one with the nuclear bombs right?

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Yes.

EDIT: Its maintaining anyway.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

The X-man cometh posted:

The same reason LARPers and SCA people love the middle ages. A romanticized view of the time based on movies and literature (Gone with the Wind, etc.) and a belief that if they were alive back then, they'd be the aristocracy and not the bottom of the ladder.

Pretty much. The traitor states held referendums on secession, and iirc they all had very flimsy majorities for secession.

The most likely position of a random southerner in 1860/61 would have been yeoman farmer or some other prole. They almost certainly would have resented the poo poo out of the Planter Class, and could very well have hated everything about the Confederacy.

Recycle Bin
Feb 7, 2001

I'd rather be a pig than a fascist

Only 14 heartbeats away from the presidency. Absolutely chilling...

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
The Giuliani comparison is absurd. Giuliani pulled completely out of the critical first two contests and moved his entire campaign infrastructure to Florida. When Huckabee won IA, McCain won NH, and Romney got second in each everyone forgot Giuliani existed.

Trump is going all in on the first two contests and, in particular, is dominating New Hampshire. There also isn't an establishment candidate with strong preexisting ties to New Hampshire, unlike McCain, who won the state in 2000, or Romney, who had been governor of adjacent Massachusetts.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

gently caress the Republic. posted:


ha. more recently that position is being given to someone with a background in physics, no?


Her Bachelor's degree in communications earned after transferring to four different schools to complete makes her more than qualified in her own mind.

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
Speaking of IA and NH, those Marist polls Joementum mentioned:

NH:

Dems

Sanders 41%
Clinton 32%
Biden 16%
Webb 1%
O’Malley 1%
Chafee 0%

If Biden doesn’t run…

Sanders 49%
Clinton 38%
Webb 2%
Chafee 1%
O’Malley 1%


GOP:



Trump 28%
Kasich 12%
Carson 11%
Bush 8%
Fiorina 6%
Paul 5%
Cruz 5%
Christie 5%
Walker 4%
Rubio 3%
Huckabee 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 1%
Santorum, Perry, Pataki, Gilmore 0%


IA:

Dems

Clinton 38%
Sanders 27%
Biden 20%
O’Malley 4%
Webb 2%
Chafee 1%

If Biden doesn’t run…

Clinton 48%
Sanders 37%
O’Malley 4%
Webb 2%
Chafee 1%


GOP



Trump 29%
Carson 22%
Bush 6%
Fiorina 5%
Paul 5%
Walker 5%
Cruz 4%
Rubio 4%
Jindal 4%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 1%
Pataki, Perry, Gilmore, Graham 0%

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Haha gently caress Scott Walker forever.

Tarezax
Sep 12, 2009

MORT cancels dance: interrupted by MORT
Interesting that Biden's support splits basically 50/50 between Clinton and Sanders when you cut him out.

Blattdorf
Aug 10, 2012

"This will be the best for both of us, Bradley."
"Meow."
The only one within striking distance of Trump is Carson, it seems.

Still, it's most likely going to be Trump vs. Sanders. If it's Trump vs. Hillary, then it'd be Trump's election to lose.

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"

Shageletic posted:

Why Trump won't win:



http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/22/donald-trump-wont-win-republican-presidential-nomination

The unfavorability numbers are dated, but there's still some good stuff there, especially the Guiliani comparisons, and the endorsement factor.

I just got a degree in political science. If Trump gets the nomination, thus rendering it obsolete and proving that everything political scientists know is wrong, I hope I can get a refund.

William Bear fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Sep 6, 2015

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Patter Song posted:

The Giuliani comparison is absurd. Giuliani pulled completely out of the critical first two contests and moved his entire campaign infrastructure to Florida. When Huckabee won IA, McCain won NH, and Romney got second in each everyone forgot Giuliani existed.

Trump is going all in on the first two contests and, in particular, is dominating New Hampshire. There also isn't an establishment candidate with strong preexisting ties to New Hampshire, unlike McCain, who won the state in 2000, or Romney, who had been governor of adjacent Massachusetts.

The Giuliani comparison is on purely national poll numbers. Obviously Trump is going to do his Trump thing instead of being Mayor 9/11, the argument however is that Trump's numbers are not unheard of for a candidate that would go on to lose. Giuliani played the national poll game and thought that the media from that would be enough. While Trump is making moves toward actual ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire he is still very much in the same mold as Giuliani, bloviating to the national media and pointing to his national polls as proof of his chances. It's still way too early to take polls without truck loads of salt and as far as I've seen Trump still hasn't done more than throw some money at a ground game. He's still not paying for much of a staff.

It should be noted that Giuliani's campaign was astoundingly boneheaded in that he publicly pined his hopes on a contest that's value was known to be somewhere between half and zero of it's stated value due to Florida jumping the line. Trump's campaign does seem to have examined the Giuliani campaign's autopsy for what not to do when you're underwater in popularity. Giuliani tried to dodge the voters who didn't like him, Trump instead has force fed them so much red meat that they can't even remember when he wasn't their guy.

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DivineCoffeeBinge
Mar 3, 2011

Spider-Man's Amazing Construction Company
Wow, Kasichmentum in NH.

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