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Trading circuit breakers aren't exactly unique to China...
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Sep 8, 2015 13:36
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Honestly it's just a recognition of how volatile and unstable prices can be. They limit losses to 5% a day but if a stock will find its true value then it can continue being devalued on the following day. Circuit breakers just prevent a feeding frenzy and crazy rear end spirals/panic.
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Sep 8, 2015 14:27
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Vladimir Putin posted:Honestly it's just a recognition of how volatile and unstable prices can be. They limit losses to 5% a day but if a stock will find its true value then it can continue being devalued on the following day. Circuit breakers just prevent a feeding frenzy and crazy rear end spirals/panic. What happens if the market just drops 5% right after it opens? Wouldnt it just stop them from trying to prop it back up? Seems like it could cause a panic to get worse then help prevent it.
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Sep 8, 2015 15:38
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Fojar38 posted:A stock market that isn't allowed to go down isn't a stock market, it's a sham, so yeah. The real untrodden territory is what happens when a billion people buy into it and keep investing. Perhaps we're witnessing the birth of some new beast altogether?
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Sep 8, 2015 16:09
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Ceciltron posted:The real untrodden territory is what happens when a billion people buy into it and keep investing. Perhaps we're witnessing the birth of some new beast altogether? Stock scams are as old as stock itself. China is doing nothing that England, France, etc hasn't done before in the past, they are just being a bit more subtle about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company
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Sep 8, 2015 16:15
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If the share prices are going down in part because everyones trying to cash out that would mean there would be a lot of liquid capital around right. Would all this be just going directly under the bed or has there been more then usally capital flow from china, or in other parts of the Chinese economy? Also I assume the shares the Chinese government are overpriced but probably not worthless unless the economy really collapse? That would seem to improve things for the government a bit. Sure there getting ripped off on the price, and having more foreign currency would help them more then having overvalued shares, but seems like as long as they don't burn through all of it, if they wait a couple of years till the economy stabilizes they should be able to slowly sell the shares off again (minus any for any companies that have ceased trading) and refresh their foreign currency supply. The main issue would then seemed to be letting the share market devalue fast enough that they don't burn through all easily available government money propping it up, but not fast enough that it cases a panic big enough that their market fuckery can't control it.
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Sep 8, 2015 16:37
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icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Sep 8, 2015 |
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Sep 8, 2015 16:55
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dr_rat posted:If the share prices are going down in part because everyones trying to cash out that would mean there would be a lot of liquid capital around right. Would all this be just going directly under the bed or has there been more then usally capital flow from china, or in other parts of the Chinese economy? The chinese have been trying to get as much cash out of the country as possible over the past few years. It's one of the causes of the bay area housing bubble.
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Sep 8, 2015 16:58
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dr_rat posted:If the share prices are going down in part because everyones trying to cash out that would mean there would be a lot of liquid capital around right. Would all this be just going directly under the bed or has there been more then usally capital flow from china, or in other parts of the Chinese economy? I think a serious worry in developing economies is when the returns are no longer there, the capital goes to another developing economy with high returns or a developed economy with lower returns but more stability.
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Sep 8, 2015 16:59
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Well yeah, that's the middle income trap in a nutshell. What we're finding out is that the magic 5000 years of culture aren't enough to protect China from the same forces working against every other developing country
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Sep 8, 2015 17:01
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icantfindaname posted:Well yeah, that's the middle income trap in a nutshell. What we're finding out is that the magic 5000 years of culture aren't enough to protect China from the same forces working against every other developing country As if every other human on earth isn't the product of over 5000 years of culture... Europeans just spawned out of the sea 2000 years ago.
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Sep 8, 2015 17:53
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icantfindaname posted:Well yeah, that's the middle income trap in a nutshell. What we're finding out is that the magic 5000 years of culture aren't enough to protect China from the same forces working against every other developing country By the same token, every country is different and China does have some superlatives including having the largest population on earth (quantity is its own quality) and having a culture freakishly devoted to learning and education (although a style that is ill-equipped to break out of manufacturing based economy). Other counties such as S Korea have made it so it's not impossible.
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Sep 8, 2015 17:57
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Vladimir Putin posted:By the same token, every country is different and China does have some superlatives including having the largest population on earth (quantity is its own quality) and having a culture freakishly devoted to learning and education (although a style that is ill-equipped to break out of manufacturing based economy). Other counties such as S Korea have made it so it's not impossible. I don't think population is that much of an advantage, especially if the domestic market is as underdeveloped as China's is. And the culture argument is pretty bullshit too, the Chinese and East Asian education systems are demonstrably awful in practice. South Korea and Taiwan achieved what they did because they were small enough and took hard enough advantage of exporting stuff to the American domestic market, that's basically it. China doesn't actually have any economic advantages over say Brazil from my perspective, there's no reason they should grow any faster absent the teat of export industrialization icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 18:11 on Sep 8, 2015 |
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Sep 8, 2015 18:08
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icantfindaname posted:I don't think population is that much of an advantage, especially if the domestic market is as underdeveloped as China's is. And the culture argument is pretty bullshit too, the Chinese and East Asian education systems are demonstrably awful in practice. South Korea and Taiwan achieved what they did because they were small enough and took hard enough advantage of exporting stuff to the American domestic market, that's basically it. China doesn't actually have any economic advantages over say Brazil from my perspective, there's no reason they should grow any faster absent the teat of export industrialization The population thing is a potential advantage as per capita GDP may be low but aggregate GDP will allow a centralized decision making body to throw that weight around and have an outsized influence. Already China is the worlds second largest economy by aggregate but per capita is on par with some third world countries.
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Sep 8, 2015 18:38
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An excessively centralized economy stops being an asset and starts being a liability once the low-hanging fruit has been picked though. Yes, China's sheer size matters but sheer size isn't the be-all end-all factor that everyone seems to believe it is. The US economy is still almost twice as large as China's despite having barely a third of the population. In fact, size becomes a liability at some points because you have to worry about keeping a billion people employed, fed, supplied, etc.
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Sep 8, 2015 19:48
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Fojar38 posted:An excessively centralized economy stops being an asset and starts being a liability once the low-hanging fruit has been picked though. Yes, China's sheer size matters but sheer size isn't the be-all end-all factor that everyone seems to believe it is. The US economy is still almost twice as large as China's despite having barely a third of the population. I never said it was the most important factor. I said it was a factor which distinguishes China. And most people who have studied China in academia acknowledge a priori that the population size as a distinguishing characteristic can be an asset or a burden, sometimes both simultaneously. Vladimir Putin fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Sep 8, 2015 |
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Sep 8, 2015 19:52
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Coylter posted:As if every other human on earth isn't the product of over 5000 years of culture... The Carolingian dynasty lasted longer and was more stable than any Chinese dynasty.
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Sep 8, 2015 21:28
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Mange Mite posted:The Carolingian dynasty lasted longer and was more stable than any Chinese dynasty. At a glance this is "lol no".
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Sep 8, 2015 22:18
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Raenir Salazar posted:At a glance this is "lol no". The original claim was HRE.
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Sep 8, 2015 23:21
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Coylter posted:As if every other human on earth isn't the product of over 5000 years of culture... 3000 Years ago actually.
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Sep 9, 2015 01:11
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icantfindaname posted:I don't think population is that much of an advantage, especially if the domestic market is as underdeveloped as China's is. And the culture argument is pretty bullshit too, the Chinese and East Asian education systems are demonstrably awful in practice. South Korea and Taiwan achieved what they did because they were small enough and took hard enough advantage of exporting stuff to the American domestic market, that's basically it. China doesn't actually have any economic advantages over say Brazil from my perspective, there's no reason they should grow any faster absent the teat of export industrialization Where are you basing the "demonstrably awful in practice" education systems from? Are there studies on it? I'm curious because I would hate to be in that system because of the high stress, emphasis on memorization, etc. parts of it but obviously that isn't enough to convince people that math score ratings internationally aren't the end all be all.
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Sep 9, 2015 01:59
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Artificer posted:Where are you basing the "demonstrably awful in practice" education systems from? Are there studies on it? I'm curious because I would hate to be in that system because of the high stress, emphasis on memorization, etc. parts of it but obviously that isn't enough to convince people that math score ratings internationally aren't the end all be all. I think those international math tests are the studies of how effective those systems are. The problem is that obviously it's not a good way of assessing outcomes long term from respective educational systems. I don't really think there is. But most people agree that the kind of high value jobs of the future require a base of knowledge but will also require creativity and willingness to go off the established track which China's educational system will not prepare for.
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Sep 9, 2015 02:08
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Artificer posted:Where are you basing the "demonstrably awful in practice" education systems from? Are there studies on it? I'm curious because I would hate to be in that system because of the high stress, emphasis on memorization, etc. parts of it but obviously that isn't enough to convince people that math score ratings internationally aren't the end all be all. I spent some time at a university in China. Students would hand in copy pasted Wikipedia pages, [citation needed] and all. They'd get A's. I've heard enough stories about Ph.D advisors straight up writing their student's thesis that I'd be leery of hiring anyone with a degree from a Chinese institution.
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Sep 9, 2015 02:45
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FrozenVent posted:I spent some time at a university in China. Students would hand in copy pasted Wikipedia pages, [citation needed] and all. They'd get A's. Oh.  Ok I did not hear that.
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Sep 9, 2015 03:17
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Artificer posted:Where are you basing the "demonstrably awful in practice" education systems from? The issues with high school education and in particular the gaokao (university entrance exam) are well documented, for a decent analysis check out the Sinica podcast episode on education where they talk to a Chinese high school principal: http://popupchinese.com/lessons/sinica/education-in-china. In terms of higher education, I'm going to repost something I wrote in this thread last time the topic came up (I've taught university professors going overseas before and now work in higher education contracting with 16 Chinese universities). Note that this was posted just under a year ago and there's been precisely zero meaningful improvement since then: Daduzi posted:Well the main problems are:
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Sep 9, 2015 03:34
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Drakhoran posted:3000 Years ago actually. Oh, hey, my people! (I can trace my family back by last name as far back as there are last names - about 1000 - and by clan till aaabout 500 AD. Before that it's myth and DNA mapping) http://www.faculty.ucr.edu/~legneref/bronze/seapeopl.htm This mostly serves as amusement value because there is no question whatsoever that we're totally barbarians. Fifteen hundred years of raiding cattle and lighting things on fire. And getting drunk.
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Sep 9, 2015 03:35
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Daduzi posted:The issues with high school education and in particular the gaokao (university entrance exam) are well documented, for a decent analysis check out the Sinica podcast episode on education where they talk to a Chinese high school principal: http://popupchinese.com/lessons/sinica/education-in-china. In terms of higher education, I'm going to repost something I wrote in this thread last time the topic came up (I've taught university professors going overseas before and now work in higher education contracting with 16 Chinese universities). Note that this was posted just under a year ago and there's been precisely zero meaningful improvement since then: Does this have a transcription somewhere? I read much faster than a 47 minute podcast. If not then that's fine too. Edit: What the hell does putting research into a "Chinese context" even mean, especially in something like physics? Artificer fucked around with this message at 03:40 on Sep 9, 2015 |
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Sep 9, 2015 03:38
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Artificer posted:Does this have a transcription somewhere? I read much faster than a 47 minute podcast. If not then that's fine too. No transcripts as far as I'm aware. The "Chinese context" comment mostly referred to areas like social sciences, education, civil engineering, philosophy or medicine; obviously it doesn't apply to areas like physics or microbiology (those incidentally are two of the areas where outright faking of results is most likely).
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Sep 9, 2015 03:49
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Daduzi posted:2. The quality of research being produced is pretty horrible. Most university faculty have never been properly trained in research methodology. PhD programs here are something of a joke, and masters programs a really unfunny joke. To make things worse, Hu Jintao's brainchild of funding universities purely on the basis of research output has created serious perverse incentives. Since universities are funded on how much research they produce, departments are funded on how much research they produce, so staff are promoted on how much research they produce. The result is that it's not uncommon for faculty to need to publish 6 papers a year to get/keep professorial positions. And anyone who's ever done research will tell you that at that rate the research isn't going to be much good. China seems pretty much what you'd expect from a country run by engineers.
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Sep 9, 2015 03:54
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Mange Mite posted:China seems pretty much what you'd expect from a country run by engineers. More precisely it's a country run by engineers who cheated their way through undergrad.
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Sep 9, 2015 05:35
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Warcabbit posted:Oh, hey, my people! (I can trace my family back by last name as far back as there are last names - about 1000 - and by clan till aaabout 500 AD. Before that it's myth and DNA mapping) That link has to be a joke, what's with the Basque obsession?
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Sep 9, 2015 09:16
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I have no idea! Not my field of study. It's all myths and DNA tracking at that point to me. Probably something to do with lack of divergence due to remoteness, and maybe something to do with Mil Espane/Milesius/the Milesians who came from Spain around 3000 BC to conquer Ireland and Scotland. (Mythical culture heroes) In short: If it weren't for the Romans, we'd probably have a lot more individual 5,000 years of history too. Heck, the Brits can claim 4,500 years easy based on 'Super Stonehenge' there. Warcabbit fucked around with this message at 12:23 on Sep 9, 2015 |
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Sep 9, 2015 11:24
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Warcabbit posted:In short: If it weren't for the Romans, we'd probably have a lot more individual 5,000 years of history too. Heck, the Brits can claim 4,500 years easy based on 'Super Stonehenge' there.
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Sep 9, 2015 13:21
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The NYTimes is reporting that the crackdown on the investment houses goes a lot deepr than previously thought.quote:The authorities are canvassing industry players in several cities, including Beijing and Shanghai. Police officers under the Chinese Ministry of Public Security specializing in economic crimes have joined agents from the nation’s securities regulator on inspections of investment funds and brokerage firms. The authorities are combing records and questioning transactions that appear to profit from or contribute to a falling market, according to employees of investment firms who, like others who spoke anonymously, said they feared reprisals.
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Sep 9, 2015 13:44
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Do they really think that investors with a lot of money are just going to acquiesce to their demands and not leave the country?
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Sep 9, 2015 14:21
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Why the gently caress would you arrest people for selling on the stock market. This is just madness.
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Sep 9, 2015 14:21
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Shifty Pony posted:The NYTimes is reporting that the crackdown on the investment houses goes a lot deepr than previously thought. Considering how well their previous arrests helped the stock prices 
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Sep 9, 2015 14:22
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quote:Police officers have downloaded extensive trading data and asked fund managers why they sold shares when the market was going down This pretty much sums it up I think.
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Sep 9, 2015 14:49
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Rahu posted:This pretty much sums it up I think. Haha yeah. Why are you following rational market behavior?
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Sep 9, 2015 16:15
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quote:Police officers have downloaded extensive trading data and asked fund managers why they sold shares when the market was going down, prompting discussions about basic investment strategy. Officers have bluntly told some fund managers to just stop selling. Well, that's an innovative way to run a market. "You may only buy. You shall not sell" "Uh, who do I buy from if no one can sell?" *Pulls pistol*
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Sep 9, 2015 18:45
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