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LeftistMuslimObama posted:Nobody should do anything or care. This, like all things NK does, are just a dude having a temper tantrum on the street corner yelling "gently caress you, fuckyouuuu!" at everyone while simultaneously being powerless to do anything more. We took North Korea off the list of state sponsors of terror in return for them agreeing to dismantle the reactor. They stopped dismantling it and in fact have restarted it, thus they should be added back onto the list. Well, that or we should remake the official list of state sponsors of terror as a list of states which sponsor terrorist groups or engage in terror themselves, as opposed to what it is now, the list of states which sponsored terrorism in the late eighties and early nineties and have never since then managed to improve their relationship with the United States. For what its worth, doing that would result in the North being added to the list again anyway, as they have attempted assassinations and kidnappings of prominent refugees.
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Sep 16, 2015 22:23
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Frankly, I doubt anyone would mind much if everything important in the facility mysteriously exploded in the middle of the night.
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Sep 16, 2015 23:26
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-Troika- posted:Frankly, I doubt anyone would mind much if everything important in the facility mysteriously exploded in the middle of the night. Well, North Korea would mind.
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Sep 17, 2015 01:34
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Uncle Jam posted:Well, North Korea would mind. North Korea isn't an anyone.
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Sep 17, 2015 01:58
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Yeah except they can shell south korea, sink their ships with subs, and gently caress over hyundai too.
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Sep 17, 2015 02:57
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If their artillery still works, their subs have enough diesel and... wait, Hyundai? Is that the main benefactor of that cross-border factory?
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Sep 17, 2015 02:59
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Cliff Racer posted:We took North Korea off the list of state sponsors of terror in return for them agreeing to dismantle the reactor. They stopped dismantling it and in fact have restarted it, thus they should be added back onto the list. Well, that or we should remake the official list of state sponsors of terror as a list of states which sponsor terrorist groups or engage in terror themselves, as opposed to what it is now, the list of states which sponsored terrorism in the late eighties and early nineties and have never since then managed to improve their relationship with the United States. For what its worth, doing that would result in the North being added to the list again anyway, as they have attempted assassinations and kidnappings of prominent refugees. Actually, the reactor had been shut down for more than a year before the US removed North Korea from the terror list. The shutdown was agreed upon as part of ongoing negotiations in the Six-Party Talks, in exchange for fuel aid and normalization of relations. The agreement was no longer in effect after the talks broke down, and given that the talks broke down six years ago and that two attempts to restore them both failed spectacularly, it's not particularly surprising that they restarted the reactor.
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Sep 17, 2015 03:24
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Uncle Jam posted:Yeah except they can shell south korea, sink their ships with subs, and gently caress over hyundai too. Barely, barely, and barely.
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Sep 17, 2015 03:31
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WarpedNaba posted:If their artillery still works, their subs have enough diesel and... wait, Hyundai? Is that the main benefactor of that cross-border factory? Oh yeah, they are fuckin IN in North Korea. Like when there is a ceremony there that all of the South Korean politicians are staying way way away from you can bet there are some high level reps from Hyundai there. They attended Kim Jong-il's funeral. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU3cKMzI1z0 Nintendo Kid posted:Barely, barely, and barely. A lot, a lot, a lot. Boom argument destroyed. Uncle Jam fucked around with this message at 04:08 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 03:41
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Uncle Jam posted:
They can't though. I mean you're talking about a pre-emptive strike by South Korea/The US/some other regional power against North Korea, why wouldn't they smack the DMZ-adjacent artillery if they decided to bomb deep within North Korea already? It's already straight up an act of war and can only be done if people are willing to accept they're going to be restarting a loving war, right then and there, just bombing the plant on its own is an impossible half-measure. It's the same reason Israel would have to get real stupid to actually send a bomber squadron out to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities.
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Sep 17, 2015 03:55
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Nintendo Kid posted:They can't though. I mean you're talking about a pre-emptive strike by South Korea/The US/some other regional power against North Korea, why wouldn't they smack the DMZ-adjacent artillery if they decided to bomb deep within North Korea already? It's already straight up an act of war and can only be done if people are willing to accept they're going to be restarting a loving war, right then and there, just bombing the plant on its own is an impossible half-measure. Yeah I'm agreeing with you man. I'm talking about the North Korean response. Its asymmetric, North Korea can cause a lot more pain to ROK without resorting to total war than vice versa.
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Sep 17, 2015 04:10
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Main Paineframe posted:Actually, the reactor had been shut down for more than a year before the US removed North Korea from the terror list. The shutdown was agreed upon as part of ongoing negotiations in the Six-Party Talks, in exchange for fuel aid and normalization of relations. The agreement was no longer in effect after the talks broke down, and given that the talks broke down six years ago and that two attempts to restore them both failed spectacularly, it's not particularly surprising that they restarted the reactor. The delisting occurred exactly at the time specified in the agreement. Magically the process fell apart right afterwards. North Korea torpedoed those negotiations themselves, they strung the west along through the easy parts where none of the steps they had to take couldn't be easily reversed. As soon as it got to the part where they would have to dissemble the actual reactor (as opposed to the cooling tower, which is just a smokestack) they refused to give progress updates, did their usual dance over yearly military exercises and engaged in the other typical weasel poo poo that they do whenever they decide that they need relations to worsen. And yet we never took back the things we gave up, despite getting none of the things we actually wanted. If they are back to what they were doing prior to 2006 then its time that we go back too. Indeed, we aught to go beyond that and increase financial sanctions on government and leadership apparatuses, as those are the only things that can hit their power structure and show that we are serious. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 04:22
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Uncle Jam posted:Yeah I'm agreeing with you man. I'm talking about the North Korean response. How exactly is north Korea going to do any of that though, especially shelling the south meaningfully? If the south launches a preemptive strike, target 1 is every single artillery installation capable of crossing the border, practically all of which have been located through decades of satellite and airborne surveillance. Most of their submarines are obsolete and ill equipped, and slow as well. They could get some decent damage done with the element of surprise in a Northern preemptive strike, but they can't accomplish much if the south is who hits first. Plus Hyundai is going to have more than enough heavy industry orders coming in to make up for lost Kaesong working time (the North shuts down Kaesong at random in the past anyway without Hyundai in serious trouble). The real problem for South Korea is that if they go to war, they're on the hook for cleaning up a North Korea even more wrecked than currently. There goes several years' GDP every decade for probably half a century!
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Sep 17, 2015 04:29
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Nintendo Kid posted:How exactly is north Korea going to do any of that though, especially shelling the south meaningfully? If the south launches a preemptive strike, target 1 is every single artillery installation capable of crossing the border, practically all of which have been located through decades of satellite and airborne surveillance. They have shelled meaningfully in the past, and sunk ships in the past, with huge repercussions in the south. I'm not talking about Clancy fantasy poo poo but things that affect real politics in the south and cause party changes in the government. Also whenever they shut down the ROK factories the ROK companies immediately start lobbying the ROK government for concessions. Heavy industry is in a bad way in ROK and Hyundai is heavy industry. Like the brain drain from the heavy industry (because it has no future) in ROK is so bad that its starting to affect the hiring market here for those positions (huge numbers of south koreans coming over) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/world-s-top-3-shipbuilders-post-record-loss-on-deep-sea-failures Uncle Jam fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 04:37
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One comes to the opinion that SK may well weigh up the cost of economically reconstructing the North vs the inevitable sanctions that would result from slaughtering soldiers and civilians en masse in order to only have the infrastructure to worry about in terms of rebuilding. The sanctions would be fuckin' small fry.
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Sep 17, 2015 05:59
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Uncle Jam posted:They have shelled meaningfully in the past, and sunk ships in the past, with huge repercussions in the south. I'm not talking about Clancy fantasy poo poo but things that affect real politics in the south and cause party changes in the government. Fishmech's point is that if South Korea bombs anything in North Korea, it's not just going to be a reactor - they're also going to bomb the hell out of anything that can meaningfully threaten South Korea, put all their ships on high alert and watching for submarines, and so on, exactly to prevent the kinds of things you cite. If the South bombs the North, it will be a massive preemptive strike. Surgical strikes on the Korean peninsula are an utter fantasy.
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Sep 17, 2015 14:54
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Main Paineframe posted:Fishmech's point is that if South Korea bombs anything in North Korea, it's not just going to be a reactor - they're also going to bomb the hell out of anything that can meaningfully threaten South Korea, put all their ships on high alert and watching for submarines, and so on, exactly to prevent the kinds of things you cite. If the South bombs the North, it will be a massive preemptive strike. Surgical strikes on the Korean peninsula are an utter fantasy. Massive pre emptive strikes are also pure fantasy, so I don't really understand what the point is I guess.
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Sep 17, 2015 15:27
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Uncle Jam posted:Massive pre emptive strikes are also pure fantasy, so I don't really understand what the point is I guess. I hope you're not this frustrating in real life. You made a glib comment, someone responded, after a couple back and forth statements you tell the other person that this is all pointless anyway after being proved incorrect.
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Sep 17, 2015 16:00
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Uncle Jam posted:Massive pre emptive strikes are also pure fantasy, so I don't really understand what the point is I guess. The idea of bombing the nuclear facilities in North Korea requires you also launch an overall preemptive strike, because there's absolutely zero way the North wouldn't get in a retaliation strike if they can. Hence if the bombers are being sent off to wherever the nuclear facilities are, the South is also laying waste to the entire swathe of Northern artillery that can even cross the dmz by a millimeter, their ships are on high alert against everything, etc. To not launch the preemptive strike at the same time as bombing the nuclear plant would be to gleefully accept a couple rounds of retaliation from the artillery batteries etc for no reason at all.
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Sep 17, 2015 16:04
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WarpedNaba posted:One comes to the opinion that SK may well weigh up the cost of economically reconstructing the North vs the inevitable sanctions that would result from slaughtering soldiers and civilians en masse in order to only have the infrastructure to worry about in terms of rebuilding.  what the gently caress is this
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Sep 17, 2015 16:18
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Uncle Jam posted:Massive pre emptive strikes are also pure fantasy, so I don't really understand what the point is I guess. Americans can't help but dream about bombing any foreign installation that offends them with no repercussions whatsoever, and there's basically nothing going on lately to talk about since the reactor thing barely qualifies as news?  Every nation that comments on North Korea things has already issued their usual array of threats, bluffs, and "concerns", and nothing else has happened.
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Sep 17, 2015 16:44
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The northern part of SK is densely populated to the point where you could still see a lot of dead people regardless of how lovely NK artillery is. Nintendo Kid posted:The idea of bombing the nuclear facilities in North Korea requires you also launch an overall preemptive strike, because there's absolutely zero way the North wouldn't get in a retaliation strike if they can. Hence if the bombers are being sent off to wherever the nuclear facilities are, the South is also laying waste to the entire swathe of Northern artillery that can even cross the dmz by a millimeter, their ships are on high alert against everything, etc. Certainly no way this could turn out poorly! Maybe we should dust off some Davy Crocketts as well.
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Sep 17, 2015 16:48
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:The northern part of SK is densely populated to the point where you could still see a lot of dead people regardless of how lovely NK artillery is. You'll barely see any, because in the bizarre scenario where the South/US actually bombs a nuclear facility in North Korea they're already invading with a pre-emptive strike. The South will be razing any suspected Northern artillery within range of the DMZ and it won't matter how good the few that manage not to get hit are. You're doing that dumb thing where you assume that all attacks only happen with the north striking first.
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Sep 17, 2015 17:05
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Koramei posted:
Oooooh! I never* get to link these! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_realism *For an extremely hazy definition of 'never'.
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Sep 17, 2015 23:09
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c0ldfuse posted:I hope you're not this frustrating in real life. Sorry I got the 'All DPRK military equipment is rusted beyond use and could do nothing in a war' thread fantasy and the 'China, Russia, ROK Industry base, ROK voter base, and US voter base no longer exist' thread fantasy mixed up. Its hard to keep track of the random realities people invoke in this thread during clancy chat. ROK striking first for all out war is never never never never never going to happen. DPRK striking first for all out war is never never never going to happen. It's silly to talk about either one and even lamer to call people dumb about it too. It'd be cool to discuss actual happenings in North Korea but people love their guns and their bombs I guess.
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Sep 19, 2015 02:32
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Well maybe if you were a clairvoyant infallible super-general like every other goon you'd enjoy the topic too.WarpedNaba posted:Oooooh! I never* get to link these! Wow your two tangentially related wikipedia articles sure showed me that South Korea will totally commit genocide on 25 million people? I sort of thought I'd just fallen for a dumb joke you pulled but now I'm just confused.
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Sep 19, 2015 02:51
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Nintendo Kid posted:The South will be razing any suspected Northern artillery within range of the DMZ and it won't matter how good the few that manage not to get hit are The US and SK do not have complete and precise information on NK artillery locations, and would likely not be able to conduct an effective counter attack until after the North opened fire and revealed their positions. Even under conservative estimates you would see thousands of people dying within minutes, tens of thousands before the end of the conflict.
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Sep 19, 2015 03:01
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Chomskyan posted:The US and SK do not have complete and precise information on NK artillery locations, and would likely not be able to conduct an effective counter attack until after the North opened fire and revealed their positions. Even under conservative estimates you would see thousands of people dying within minutes, tens of thousands before the end of the conflict. That is an estimate of a North Korean first strike, friend, and thus not germane to the results of the South striking first. Hope this helps.
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Sep 19, 2015 03:04
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Nintendo Kid posted:That is an estimate of a North Korean first strike, friend, and thus not germane to the results of the South striking first. Hope this helps. The artillery pieces are hidden, and sheltered in caves etc (this is noted in the report I linked to). Essentially, your idea that a US/SK first strike could obliterate NK offensive capabilities before the South incurred significant civilian casualties, is regarded as total fantasy even in conservative circles.
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Sep 19, 2015 03:24
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Chomskyan posted:The artillery pieces are hidden, and sheltered in caves etc (this is noted in the report I linked to). Essentially, your idea that a US/SK first strike could obliterate NK offensive capabilities before the South incurred significant civilian casualties, is regarded as total fantasy even in conservative circles. The South will be doing a near-indiscriminate level of bombing across the border in case they decided to strike first. They would surely put most of them out of commission before there's time for them to strike back. If you believe they won't get a meaningful number of them, you are an idiot. We are talking after all, about a south that's decided to go right on ahead and blow up nuclear facilities in North Korea - this is not something tentative, this is scorched earth stuff.
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Sep 19, 2015 03:31
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Chomskyan posted:The artillery pieces are hidden, and sheltered in caves etc The wily Kim regime has once again foiled the plots of the dastardly West by the use of holes in the ground. The one thing nobody in a position to design bombs ever thought of.
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Sep 19, 2015 05:35
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Even if it were politically possible for the US/SK to launch a surprise attack (it ain't), the massive military buildup would be impossible to do in secret in an open society.
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Sep 19, 2015 20:35
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I think the modern way of doing a surprise attak is to say you're doing a military exercise and then instead of goofing around in some area you pop across the border.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:28
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Fintilgin posted:Even if it were politically possible for the US/SK to launch a surprise attack (it ain't), the massive military buildup would be impossible to do in secret in an open society. Plus the ROK army is conscription so political poo poo would be hitting the fan within the first hour and there would be protests across the country. A ROK first strike is completely impossible.
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Sep 24, 2015 13:43
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PenisOfPathos posted:I think the modern way of doing a surprise attak is to say you're doing a military exercise and then instead of goofing around in some area you pop across the border. Or ship the troops in with commercial airlines and pretend they're just tourists or maybe motivated locals.
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Sep 24, 2015 14:21
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PenisOfPathos posted:I think the modern way of doing a surprise attak is to say you're doing a military exercise and then instead of goofing around in some area you pop across the border. This seems to be the case as Venezuela is on the verge of invading Guyana after Maduro's plan to go to war with Colombia failed.
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Sep 24, 2015 14:23
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mobby_6kl posted:Or ship the troops in with commercial airlines and pretend they're just tourists or maybe motivated locals. It worked for Russia!
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Sep 24, 2015 22:03
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Nonsense posted:This seems to be the case as Venezuela is on the verge of invading Guyana after Maduro's plan to go to war with Colombia failed. Wait, what? They are?
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Sep 25, 2015 07:34
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Tias posted:Wait, what? They are? No they are not. Maduro's a buffoon but he's not that stupid. The government's making a big display so they can create another crisis to distract from the total failure that is their domestic policy. Venezuela's claim to Essequibo hasn't been more than a political tool since the 19th century. EDIT: Also Maduro didn't want to invade Colombia, he wanted to scapegoat Venezuela's Colombian population and establish effective martial in what just happen to be opposition-friendly areas.
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Sep 25, 2015 08:21
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After 70 years of existence, North Korea now thinks it has the balls to take the US on. Wishful propaganda or actual threats? I would like to hear your take.
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Oct 10, 2015 20:01
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