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Bob Ojeda
Apr 15, 2008

I AM A WHINY LITTLE EMOTIONAL BITCH BABY WITH NO SENSE OF HUMOR

IF YOU SEE ME POSTING REMIND ME TO SHUT THE FUCK UP

Lote posted:

Hot take:

If the government shutdown goes through, the optics are going to make the GOP establishment look awful and allow Trump, or really any outsider candidate like Carson, the opportunity to capitalize. "Why are we not funding the government over this sole issue and hurting the Vets in the process?" and so on.

The GOP establishment really aren't the people responsible for shutting the government down, so I'm not sure about it. I don't think that's going be a fruitful attack on someone like Kasich, or even Rubio, since I doubt either of them would express a ton of enthusiasm for a shutdown. It might be a fruitful attack on Bush, but that's only because he would probably find a way to respond by saying that Reagan was America's worst president or something. It would make sense as an attack on Cruz, specifically, but Trump and Cruz have a non-aggression pact. So, you know, it's sort of tricky for Trump to use that on someone.

Also, it kind of depends on how popular a shutdown is with the base. I imagine they're probably okay with it.

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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Winkie01 posted:

Walker is dropping out


:byewhore:
The big cheese got

Cheesed. :downsrim:

Timby
Dec 23, 2006

Your mother!

Joementum posted:

FWIW, my guess about the "big story" is staff in-fighting. When a campaign is going down the tubes there's always staff in-fighting and it makes sense that a former staffer would hear about it. And if that former staffer in a politcal media consultant, they would regard in-fighting as a "big story".

A lot of Walker's senior staff were calling for him to fire Rick Wiley, his campaign manager. It got to the point that someone on the inside was definitely leaking to the press.

TheScott2K
Oct 26, 2003

I'm just saying, there's a nonzero chance Trump has a really toad penis.
Scott Walker's face lives to melt another day

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Joementum posted:

Woah, if true! According to a Cruz fundraising email, his campaign needs cash.



:forc:

Dahn
Sep 4, 2004

Civilized Fishbot posted:

In a dark room in Virginia, Jim Gilmore crosses another name off a list. One step closer to the presidency.

The true plan is exposed.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
If Cruz drops out his support goes to Trump, and his money to Rubio.

Xenophon
Jun 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer

Joementum posted:

Woah, if true! According to a Cruz fundraising email, his campaign needs cash.



whoa, hey, that's for internal use only. you can't just go posting that around.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

Doctor Candiru posted:

I wasn't exaggerating; Bush's Super PAC literally has at least $103,000,000.

Walker's has $20,000,000, and it has spent just as much as Bush's without much of an effect.

It would be really shocking if the primary didn't come down to Bush, Rubio, and Kasich; but then again, I've been thinking Walker would be the nominee for a long time, so what do I know? (Unless Mair's inference of some "very bad story" scandal has some weight.)
That's kinda my point though, at a certain point money reaches a level of diminishing return. Walker spent a shitton of money and it obviously didn't help him, Jeb! has spent a shitton of money and he's still polling below Ron Paul levels. Sure, money helps a campaign, but "Jeb! has 103,000,000" is not the instant-killer win button it should be, especially when Jeb! says asinine stuff like "my brother kept us safe".

Now if Rubio gets a shitton of money behind him and manages to avoid saying stupid and campaign-damaging poo poo, and also avoids the wrath of Trump, and isn't rejected by the base for being Mr. Amnesty RINO, then say hi to the new Establishment guy with a decent shot at the nomination.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 21 hours!
One of jeb's sleeves is rolled down further.

Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Sep 22, 2015

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


so what are the chances of the race turning into two competing triumvirates, the establishment of Rubio/Bush/Kasich, and the clown car of Trump/Fiorina/Carson? what happens at the convention if if too many delegates stick with clown car people?

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 21 hours!
My GF told me that before bush came out the lady behind her was throwing a fit because she was supposed to be on a list and didn't have to sit in the white chairs with the rest of us.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Grouchio posted:

The big cheese got

Cheesed. :downsrim:

Staff to Walker: "Cheese it!"

Excelzior
Jun 24, 2013

Mr Hootington posted:

One of jeb's sleeves is rolled down further.



it connotes pragmatism

mr. mephistopheles
Dec 2, 2009

Mirthless posted:

If it's any consolation, this guy just made pharma reform an issue that is again in the public spotlight, and he's a hilariously evil, cartoonish villain who obviously has only his own greedy self interest in mind. This can only be good for reform in the long run.

It's so brazen and devoid of even the most basic humanity that it almost feels like he's doing it intentionally to push change.

But, you know, capitalism.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 21 hours!
Native American question out of know where. Bush is trying he is trying drat it.
Lol said the faces he sees here maybe different from what she sees here, but he doesn't see lots of native Americans. Lol


Told you Jeb is angry.

Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 00:41 on Sep 22, 2015

NotJesus
Jan 17, 2007

Mr Hootington posted:

Native American question out of know where. Bush is trying he is trying drat it.
Lol said the faces he sees here maybe different from what she sees here, but he doesn't see lots of native Americans. Lol
Great answer, Jeb!
And the best part is: you can re-use it if someone asks about black people.

i am the bird
Mar 2, 2005

I SUPPORT ALL THE PREDATORS
I wonder if a good angry Jeb! moment would boost him similarly to when Hillary shed a tear.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 21 hours!
Holy poo poo! This planned parenthood question. It is loving crazy I need to find it lAter or if someone can get it for me would be great. I don't know if this is on cspan or whatever.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Hold on, Karl Rove is on BuzzFeed saying that Scott Walker might still be the nominee....

quote:

“The longer we go with Trump or Carson at the head of the pack, the more likely it is that we get to Cleveland without a nominee,” said one GOP strategist with ties to Karl Rove’s super PAC American Crossroads.

Still, there is skepticism in Republican circles that Walker would be the consensus candidate to emerge victorious from a floor fight. One GOP source called it “crazy.”

As the article goes on to note, one problem (among many) with this idea is that in this scenario the party could also pick, you know, literally anyone else.

StandardVC10
Feb 6, 2007

This avatar now 50% more dark mode compliant
Haha! Eat poo poo, Scott Walker!

AceRimmer
Mar 18, 2009

Joementum posted:

As the article goes on to note, one problem (among many) with this idea is that in this scenario the party could also pick, you know, literally anyone else.

quote:

And one of the strategists with ties to Wisconsin said, “The problem is that if you had a brokered convention scenario, [Walker] wouldn’t even be the most likely person out of Wisconsin to win the nomination. That would be Paul Ryan.”
:lol:

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

The great thing is that when the poop tier candidates drop out they barely wiggle the polls because they simply haven't any support for a prospective anti-trump to inherit.

Alfred P. Pseudonym
May 29, 2006

And when you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss goes 8-8

Somebody photoshop Immortan Koch handing Walker a big bag of money and then Walker trips on the war rig and drops the money and Immortan Koch goes :mediocre:

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 21 hours!
James k. Polk is a president Jeb bush admires.

Coheed and Camembert
Feb 11, 2012


I need a :rolleyes: 50 feet tall.

Ignite Memories
Feb 27, 2005

God it would be so incredible if Scott Walker somehow managed to get nominated. It would be a loving LANDSLIDE. It would be such a flawless victory that the democratic nominee would be eligible for the special fatalities.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Mr Hootington posted:

James k. Polk is a president Jeb bush admires.

Extend the iron jackboot of slave power and goldbuggery to the Pacific.

i am the bird
Mar 2, 2005

I SUPPORT ALL THE PREDATORS

Mr Hootington posted:

James k. Polk is a president Jeb bush admires.

Is it because he waged war against Mexico?

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.
Yep, Walker going out is not unexpected to me. I still don't understand why you guys thought he was gonna go far - think of this from the donors' point of view. They need a candidate, any candidate, they think they can afford to back to fight the outsiders and get their way right now, so any establishment candidates actually fighting for this thing are gonna be pressed pretty tight by the donors justifying why they shouldn't be backing someone else who can actually mount a fight against Trump.

I'd peg Christie, Cruz or Jindal to be the next out, all for different reasons. (Let's be honest Jindal is already out, it's a question of when he'll admit it and it's mostly spite for Trump keeping him going) Most of the others will be sticking around to at least Iowa.

I think Bush will be out after Iowa. He's going to perform poorly, and when he does the establishment is going to decide they'd rather spend their money on someone with a chance of winning AKA Rubio or Kaisich (probably Rubio, since I expect Kaisich will have a poor showing as well).

bobtheconqueror
May 10, 2005
What happens to PAC money if their candidate dries up? Does the PAC find a new candidate? What about when that's no longer an option, like with really focused PACs or near the end of the primaries?

Like, what would happen to Right to Rise PAC's millions if Jeb defected to Mexico or died or something?

bobtheconqueror fucked around with this message at 01:11 on Sep 22, 2015

Spaceman Future!
Feb 9, 2007

Mr Hootington posted:

One of jeb's sleeves is rolled down further.



is he speaking in some sort of old person zoo?

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

bobtheconqueror posted:

What happens to PAC money if their candidate dries up? Does the PAC find a new candidate? What about when that's no longer an option, like with really focused PACs or near the end of the primaries?

Can't they spend the money on basically whatever they want? I don't think their "focus" actually matters.

SHY NUDIST GRRL
Feb 15, 2011

Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

Joementum posted:

Woah, if true! According to a Cruz fundraising email, his campaign needs cash.



Open the bloodgates!

All the losers are spending all their money this early in the running just to be heard at all. It's amazing.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Joementum posted:

Hold on, Karl Rove is on BuzzFeed saying that Scott Walker might still be the nominee....
As the article goes on to note, one problem (among many) with this idea is that in this scenario the party could also pick, you know, literally anyone else.

Rove: A broken clock that isn't even right twice per day?

Spaceman Future!
Feb 9, 2007

GlyphGryph posted:

Rove: A broken clock that isn't even right twice per day?

Rove's last hurrah was Kerry, anything and everything effective from his campaign book was appropriated by the dems and Obama ran ramshod over the GOP with it. All that Rove has left to his name are stupid long bet rants that would make him look like he was worth money to a campaign in the insane scenario that they actually happened.

Drastic Actions
Apr 7, 2009

FUCK YOU!
GET PUMPED!
Nap Ghost

Mr Hootington posted:

James k. Polk is a president Jeb bush admires.

Ask if he likes They Might Be Giants.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Congratulations to Scott Walker for literally being trolled out of the race by Donald Trump.

I look forward to Trump hoovering up the newly unemployed Scott Walker staffers in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.

bobtheconqueror
May 10, 2005

GlyphGryph posted:

Can't they spend the money on basically whatever they want? I don't think their "focus" actually matters.

Right, but what do they actually do, throw a bigass kegger? Can they funnel it into another PAC or campaign? I feel like there's some potential liability there from betraying donor confidence.

I suppose they could try to return it to donors, but that sounds like a giant pain to figure out who gets what.

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A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


bobtheconqueror posted:

Right, but what do they actually do, throw a bigass kegger?? Can they funnel it into another PAC or campaign? I feel like there's some potential liability there from betraying donor confidence.

They'll probably speak with the major donors (hint: it's 98% Koch money) and take direction from them. They can run ads supporting a new candidate, or if Scott's childlike rant was scripted by Koch Industries themselves they can dump $20 million in attack ads on Trump.

EDIT: The third option is to stay on the sidelines and just support generic GOP candidates next fall.

A GIANT PARSNIP fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Sep 22, 2015

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