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I think that a shutdown is all but guaranteed at this point. Boehner doesn't want one, but the lunatics that now control a large portion of his party most certainly do.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:21
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Boehner and McConnell both seem bewildered and paralyzed by the monster they've helped create
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Sep 24, 2015 20:24
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Doesn't a shut down tank their election chances? Everyone hated the last time. While Cruz spoke of the nebulous will of the people like a proper glorious leader.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:24
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euphronius posted:That's a misuse of the term " over under". drat dude you told him
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Sep 24, 2015 20:24
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euphronius posted:That's a misuse of the term " over under". I'm going to be more optimistic and say 70% chance shutdown, 30% chance last minute agreement. Shutdowns are no big deal for congress because they mostly seem to happen on odd number years, where by the time the next election rolls around - people forget. The politicians who really suffer are local and county level races this year, mostly republicans who are poisoned by the brand, but have literally nothing to do with the federal government.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:27
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TheTatteredKing posted:Doesn't a shut down tank their election chances? Everyone hated the last time. While Cruz spoke of the nebulous will of the people like a proper glorious leader. The base loves it!
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Sep 24, 2015 20:29
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Trump will come out about how it's a loser strategy that already failed before, and just shows how stupid the establishment is.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:32
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TheTatteredKing posted:Doesn't a shut down tank their election chances? Everyone hated the last time. While Cruz spoke of the nebulous will of the people like a proper glorious leader. Remember when the shutdown happened in 2013 and it killed the republican chances in 2014 where they retook the senate? People are loving stupid.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:33
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The point has been made many times, but: even if people blame Congress for the shutdown, that doesn't necessarily mean they blame their specific Congressperson. And I don't think it'll have much of an impact on the Presidential race either, unless the Republican nominee is exactly Ted Cruz. I would expect it to be pretty easy for anyone else to separate themselves from it.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:35
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So who would be the winners and the losers if a shutdown happened this time?
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Sep 24, 2015 20:36
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A shutdown isn't going to happen. They're already circling the wagons in the senate to make Cruz even more ineffectual than he currently is, he won't have a chance to ride the whole thing to Hell like last time.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:36
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A shutdown is probably Cruz's laat big chance for some publicity in this primary.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:37
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Mordiceius posted:So who would be the winners and the losers if a shutdown happened this time? Winners: Ted Cruz in the primary Losers: Ted Cruz in the general, government employees trying to feed their families, people who rely on the government for anything (read: everyone in this country)
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Sep 24, 2015 20:38
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TheTatteredKing posted:Doesn't a shut down tank their election chances? Everyone hated the last time. While Cruz spoke of the nebulous will of the people like a proper glorious leader. Pffft. They managed to blame Obama for the last one, and there's over a year till the election. American voters have the memories of goldfish.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:39
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Nah, they took a huge hit for it. It was just that an IT launch not going smoothly was enough to make everyone forget. To be fair, most voters have never played an MMO.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:42
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Abner Cadaver II posted:A shutdown is probably Cruz's laat big chance for some publicity in this primary. He will certainly talk about it in debates if he is even around fpr whenever the next one is.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:42
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The "liberal media" peddling the "Well, maybe it was both side's fault" after the shutdown probably didn't help people realize it was the GOP holding the government hostage.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:44
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pathetic little tramp posted:A shutdown isn't going to happen. They're already circling the wagons in the senate to make Cruz even more ineffectual than he currently is, he won't have a chance to ride the whole thing to Hell like last time. Doesn't Congress only have like 3 days left in session before the first of October? It's going to happen, but I don't see it taking 3 weeks like it did last time.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:44
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I can see it now @realdonaldtrump maybe boehner needs some viagra to pervent shutdown trump gains 5 points
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Sep 24, 2015 20:54
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AARP LARPer fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Jan 22, 2016 |
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Sep 24, 2015 21:06
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:that's too good not to be true Donald Trump is in all of us friend.
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Sep 24, 2015 21:16
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Schnorkles posted:Donald Trump is in all of us friend. There is a Donald Trump in all of our heads. He must be destroyed.
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Sep 24, 2015 21:25
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Third World Reggin posted:I can see it now Why are you giving these gems for free
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Sep 24, 2015 21:29
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Mordiceius posted:So what's the over or under on chances of another gov. shutdown? ~*The Market*~ is currently giving it ~40% odds of shutting down https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1192/Will-the-federal-government-shut-down-on-October-1#data1
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Sep 24, 2015 21:30
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Problem is knowning which lens to pick. Trump's right wing nativist populism has parallels with Huey Long and Father Coughlin, and the not-Trump pattern seems to be repeating the not-Romney pattern of last cycle. I'm in the middle of reading a bio of Huey Long and IDK that there would be much of a parallel there. Long repeatedly hammered the Senate and later FDR on income inequality and caucused with the Progressives, I haven't seen anything about nativism. For a Southern politician, he wasn't even particularly anti-black.
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Sep 24, 2015 21:31
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The Nastier Nate posted:I'm going to be more optimistic and say 70% chance shutdown, 30% chance last minute agreement. More importantly, if a shutdown causes a bunch of economic damage then the GOP can point to those numbers in the election and scream about how bad everything's going to poo poo with Obama and how another Democrat will keep the problems coming (because the GOP will keep causing shutdowns).
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Sep 24, 2015 21:36
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Pompous Rhombus posted:I'm in the middle of reading a bio of Huey Long and IDK that there would be much of a parallel there. Long repeatedly hammered the Senate and later FDR on income inequality and caucused with the Progressives, I haven't seen anything about nativism. For a Southern politician, he wasn't even particularly anti-black. Long wasn't afraid to use racism to win election and Trump's strategy of unending sensationalist attacks is right out of Huey's playbook. The ridiculous public persona that Trump has adopted is also reminiscent of Long.
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Sep 24, 2015 21:36
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Khisanth Magus posted:I think that a shutdown is all but guaranteed at this point. Boehner doesn't want one, but the lunatics that now control a large portion of his party most certainly do. What is going to be scary is if Boehner loses his leadership to one of the crazies. The potential for a long-term shutdown becomes real at that point.
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Sep 24, 2015 21:38
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Miltank posted:Long wasn't afraid to use racism to win election and Trump's strategy of unending sensationalist attacks is right out of Huey's playbook. The ridiculous public persona that Trump has adopted is also reminiscent of Long. So what you're saying is that George P. Bush is going to assassinate Donald Trump.
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Sep 24, 2015 21:44
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Miltank posted:Long wasn't afraid to use racism to win election and Trump's strategy of unending sensationalist attacks is right out of Huey's playbook. The ridiculous public persona that Trump has adopted is also reminiscent of Long. Long largely avoided race and was a pretty big enemy of the KKK. His most egregious thing irt race was fencesitting on the anti-lynching bill. For a southern governor he was basically as least lovely as they got at the time. Huey was first and foremost an economic populist, and he was also a much more serious politician than Trump. You can thank Huey for the Second New Deal, which FDR primarily pushed because he was afraid of a Long third party run from the left. Sheng-Ji Yang fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 21:49
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euphronius posted:That's a misuse of the term " over under". eh, its a doggy dog world and for all intesive purposes Im sure he could care less
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Sep 24, 2015 21:57
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It's true, I can't control the monster that my party has become 
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Sep 24, 2015 22:01
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quote:Fox News Chairman & CEO Roger Ailes and Donald Trump spoke this morning and plan to have a meeting next week to discuss their differences of opinion regarding Fox’s coverage of Mr. Trump’s presidential campaign. Ailes will be joined by senior Fox editorial executives. Mr. Trump believes he has been treated unfairly in certain instances. FOX News has held every candidate in this race to the highest journalistic standards throughout our coverage. We believe a candid meeting about our differences is required and that any misunderstandings can be handled without compromising those standards. http://www.mediaite.com/tv/foxs-roger-ailes-to-sit-down-with-donald-trump-to-discuss-coverage/ This gently caress'n guy!
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Sep 24, 2015 22:14
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I think a shutdown is unlikely because it's probably the worst option for Boehner keeping his gavel and that appears to be all he gives a poo poo about at this point. I think he can fend off another challenge over not driving the party into the ditch. I'm not sure he could survive a bad shutdown. The funny thing is that mostly the same people are mad at him either way because they don't really care.
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Sep 24, 2015 22:15
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WMUR NH Poll now (July) Trump 26 (+2) Fiorina 16 (+15) Rubio 9 (+6) Carson 8 (+3) Bush 7 (-5)  Kasich 7 (+1) Christie 5 (-2) Cruz 5 (-) Paul 3 (-4)
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Sep 24, 2015 22:17
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Montasque posted:http://www.mediaite.com/tv/foxs-roger-ailes-to-sit-down-with-donald-trump-to-discuss-coverage/ Oh word another fake scandal and reconciliation? I wonder how many of these we'll go through this election.
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Sep 24, 2015 22:48
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Intel&Sebastian posted:I think a shutdown is unlikely because it's probably the worst option for Boehner keeping his gavel and that appears to be all he gives a poo poo about at this point. I think he can fend off another challenge over not driving the party into the ditch. I'm not sure he could survive a bad shutdown. Yeah my guess is they're gonna punt it a month so the PP stuff can leave the spotlight further
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Sep 24, 2015 22:52
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nachos posted:Oh word another fake scandal and reconciliation? I wonder how many of these we'll go through this election. Trump will do this after every debate... So... four/five more times?
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Sep 24, 2015 22:58
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Why does Fox hate trump anyway?
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Sep 25, 2015 00:00
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ImPureAwesome posted:Why does Fox hate trump anyway? Because they are a GOP mouthpiece.
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Sep 25, 2015 00:07
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