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Klaus88 posted:If the dead can vote in Florida, they should be able to run for office. Certainly isn't any worse than electing batboy.
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Aug 27, 2015 15:17
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There needs to be a Young Democrat Relocation Program. There's no need for 10 primary candidates in a single district in NYC when South Florida (NY South) has to settle for struggling to get a non-mongoloid or former Republican to run.
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Aug 27, 2015 15:20
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De Nomolos posted:There needs to be a Young Democrat Relocation Program. Regionalism is a thing and outside of a few isolated moves (such as your NJ/NY -> FL example) it would just be spotted a mile away. You can't just send someone without a ridiculous accent to the loving Ozarks to blend in because the moment they open their mouth the walls go up.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:39
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De Nomolos posted:There needs to be a Young Democrat Relocation Program. There's something structural at play here. I've struggled to articulate it but basically I think liberal-minded young people increasingly abandon their home areas and relocate to the vanishingly few places in America where there is still something like a functional public sphere ~ New York, SF, DC, Philly, college towns. What can a liberal do in Fayette County, PA? There's no money in the community so you can't fight for more school funding. You can organize your workplace - but if you're employed you are probably either a Corrections officer or a cop, so congratulations you are further entrenching the carceral state as a crucial element of your region's political economy. It's depressing. It also leads to the feedback loop of liberals existing in a closed circuit - which in turn leads to the kind of True Progressive circle jerking that infuriates the red state Democrats who populate this forum. I'd like to do a deeper analysis of this at some point and try to back it up with historical data since right now it's basically just my Hot Take.
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Aug 27, 2015 19:05
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i wonder if the death of labor also has something to do with this; as pupsofwar said in last month's uspol thread, a lot of old union miners and steelworkers in appalachia may be very racist and socially conservative but still vote D reliably since they remember the labor struggles of the 70s and 80s. meanwhile, the youth in that region are also socially conservative, and sure as hell aren't voting D over their parents' and grandparents' dead unions
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Aug 27, 2015 19:30
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:a lot of old union miners and steelworkers in appalachia may be very racist and socially conservative but still vote D reliably They've actually stopped doing that too! There's enough "hurr durr EPA" noise in those regions to make them vote R despite the fact that they'd love to usher in a world where miners are routinely poisoned or left to die by their companies in accidents, and a black president being a thing has probably pushed them away for good. As someone above mentioned, the bigger problem is brain drain. Anyone with half a brain growing up outside of an urban center in states like WV or KY are going to get the gently caress out as soon as they can, leaving behind the kind of idiots that are easily convinced to vote conservative over their own best interest, because the gays/blacks/Muslims/whatever boogeyman of the week is out there.
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Aug 27, 2015 19:53
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I was talking about places that are already swing states with transplants. Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, namely. Both VA and FL have governors from somewhere else. Did Rick Scott ever live in FL for any reason other than pleasure?
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Aug 28, 2015 01:15
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De Nomolos posted:I was talking about places that are already swing states with transplants. Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, namely. He is such an enormous poo poo lord that even Texas wouldn't have him? To declare things like the landing of the first Spanish Conquisdor in Florida a massive triumph for Multiculturalism? (this is actually a thing Rick Scott said out loud. In public.) 
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Aug 28, 2015 01:22
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De Nomolos posted:I was talking about places that are already swing states with transplants. Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, namely. Arizona took a fecal transplant though.
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Aug 28, 2015 01:24
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De Nomolos posted:Both VA and FL have governors from somewhere else. Did Rick Scott ever live in FL for any reason other than pleasure? He did own health care services in FL that based their business model off bilking the government for record amounts and for taking advantage of the poor looking for treatment. Pure human misery and graft. So no, it's been a barrel of laughs for him the whole time.
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Aug 28, 2015 02:19
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Gyges posted:He did own health care services in FL that based their business model off bilking the government for record amounts and for taking advantage of the poor looking for treatment. Pure human misery and graft. So no, it's been a barrel of laughs for him the whole time. Part of that business model was putting stents in every artery they could find, including ones that didn't need a stent or ones that needed treatment other than a stent, resulting in deaths.
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Aug 28, 2015 03:19
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FAUXTON posted:Part of that business model was putting stents in every artery they could find, including ones that didn't need a stent or ones that needed treatment other than a stent, resulting in deaths. Really the only good thing I've ever been able to find about Rick Scott is that his mother does seem to love him. Poor woman.
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Aug 28, 2015 03:54
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Gyges posted:Really the only good thing I've ever been able to find about Rick Scott is that his mother does seem to love him. Poor woman. Not her fault she gave birth to a ring-wraith.
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Aug 28, 2015 04:06
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Joementum just reported in the USPol thread that Bob Casey has announced support for the Iran Deal. Pat Toomey has been one of the most vocal opponents, so I'm guessing this will be a general election issue for Toomey vs. the Democratic nominee. I don't think it will hurt the Democrats in PA. I think since 2005 / 2006 most people are pretty moderate / gently anti-war on foreign policy, I have been wrong before though.
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Sep 1, 2015 18:51
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I doubt it, senate elections aren't fought on foreign policy unless there is a war going on. There isn't one so people will be focused on other things. If you ask me, Toomey will hammer economics the whole way while the Democrat, whoever he or she may be, will try to shift towards social issues.
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Sep 1, 2015 22:19
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An economics-based campaign would probably be good for the Democrats. Wolf beat Corbett head-to-head in a nasty, nasty year for Democrats because GOP fiscal theories were self-evidently damaging to school districts and communities. Wolf's approval ratings are pretty good (47-32-21 in late June per Quinnipiac). Rendell is McGinty's campaign chair, so if she's the nominee there's no way in Hell it's going to be based around social issues. It'll hammer on the stimulus, Obama's job numbers, and all the programs the GOP wants to defund. They'll defend Planned Parenthood, sure, but PA Democrats run the gently caress away from social issues every chance they get. Bob Casey is pro-life.
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Sep 1, 2015 22:54
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I disagree, Wolf beat Corbett because Corbett couldn't get a damned thing passed even with his own party in charge of both chambers. His term was much less conservative in terms of reforming state government (so chipping away at union rights) than that of governors in Michigan and Wisconsin yet they both won re-election while Corbett got trounced. It was the general incompetence of the Corbett admin, its lack-luster spin machine, its ever-changing stance on the Sandusky scandal, its inability to pass liquor store reform and, yes, the 2010 budget's education cuts that did him in. But that was a specific incumbent administration with specific incumbency problems. We are instead talking about a politician who, despite being an economic bomb-thrower prior to election, has managed to largely keep his head down and work on policy. He poked his head up once, pushing that gun control bill, and failed at it. Pennsylvania has changed a lot in the past twenty years, the growth has been concentrated in socially liberal SEPA, while the economically liberal west has stagnated and even shrunk in size in many areas. More and more SEPA's social values, and hence voting trends, have extended all the way out to the Susquehanna River. Democrats had a successful national campaign in 2012, based more on social ideas/war on women bullshit than on economic ones. They'll try to do it again in 2016, especially if Hillary does end up being the nominee. That will bleed over into the various state campaigns. I know that Bob Casey is pro-life in general (though he voted against the defunding,) I've actually brought it up in this thread relatively recently. However he's pro-life at this point largely because he has been historically and his father had been historically. If he were getting into politics now as a young man he'd drop that poo poo faster than a bucket full of baby organs. On social issues its Republicans who are on the backfoot in this state. Corbett gave up on gay marriage without a fight and despite the Gosnell stuff, very little was said/done about abortion in PA. The "moral" part of the liquor store debate got very little play compared to the economic aspects. I don't know what Toomey has been doing on social issues but he's never been a leader in that area, he's always been more based on economics.
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Sep 2, 2015 02:06
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Heitkamp's not running for Governor, so the Democrats will continue to hold that seat in 2017.
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Sep 9, 2015 21:01
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Joementum posted:Heitkamp's not running for Governor, so the Democrats will continue to hold that seat in 2017.
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Sep 10, 2015 01:38
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John Fetterman is entering the Democratic Primary for the PA Senate seat. He's the mayor of Braddock, a Pittsburgh neighborhood. He's popular guy with national media and a symbol of gentrification in Pittsburgh, as far as that goes. He'll rally a lot of college volunteers from Pitt, Duquesne, and Point Park, probably get a bit of money from some national liberals familiar with his record, and get support from some of the successful local entrepreneurs that his policies helpled get started. I don't think it will be nearly enough.
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Sep 11, 2015 22:33
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Should have been Josh Fenderman https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O6fez3AHUzQ Richard Burr has an opponent now. It's one of those "great on paper but probably in over their head" kind of candidates. Meet Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey: http://m.fayobserver.com/blogs/news...9.html?mode=jqm Black? Check. Vet? Check. Idealistic while remaining in party mainstream for NC? Check. Mayor of a Fayetteville suburb is an awful small base to start from. Who was the last former Mayor elected to the Senate? I can only think of Feinstein (Mayor of San Fran ages ago) and Tim Kaine (Mayor of Richmond in the 90s, later Governor). Edit: oh yeah, Sanders. Vermont barely counts. Burlington has probably elected 3 hacky sacks since him. De Nomolos has issued a correction as of 15:52 on Sep 28, 2015 |
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Sep 28, 2015 15:48
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De Nomolos posted:Should have been Josh Fenderman Both NJ Senators, Menendez and Booker were mayors. Corker, Inhofe, and Enzi were all mayors at one point as well (although I think there were gaps between their mayorships and their elections to the senate).
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Sep 28, 2015 16:12
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De Nomolos posted:Should have been Josh Fenderman Franco Potente posted:Both NJ Senators, Menendez and Booker were mayors. Corker, Inhofe, and Enzi were all mayors at one point as well (although I think there were gaps between their mayorships and their elections to the senate). Are you asking about "people who got elected to Senate who were at one point mayors" or "people who made the jump from Mayor to Senator directly"? Because that second question seems a lot more relevant, and some of the people listed (Kaine and Sanders for instance) don't count.
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Sep 28, 2015 17:07
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Chris Coons was just a county commissioner before he became a Senator. Booker was a sitting Mayor. Those are the only two recent ones.
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Sep 28, 2015 18:49
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Chris Coons was just a county commissioner before he became a Senator. Booker was a sitting Mayor. Being county commissioner of Delaware is a big deal since there are only three counties in Delaware. I think running for U.S. Senate as a Democrat in North Carolina is kind of like running for Governor of Virginia. Both are swingy states but trend red overall, to be elected statewide you need a combination of timing, connections, and plain luck. There's a lot about Chris Rey that makes him a solid choice but his lack of experience, combined with his lack of connections, could destroy him.
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Sep 28, 2015 19:51
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Jackson Taus posted:Are you asking about "people who got elected to Senate who were at one point mayors" or "people who made the jump from Mayor to Senator directly"? Because that second question seems a lot more relevant, and some of the people listed (Kaine and Sanders for instance) don't count. I'm thinking more so of people who launched themselves into notoriety as a Mayor. For example, being Mayor launched Sanders' career and was the base he had to run for Congress from. Obama on the other hand launched his career from the IL state house.
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Sep 28, 2015 20:14
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Xanderg posted:I think running for U.S. Senate as a Democrat in North Carolina is kind of like running for Governor of Virginia. Both are swingy states but trend red overall, to be elected statewide you need a combination of timing, connections, and plain luck. There's a lot about Chris Rey that makes him a solid choice but his lack of experience, combined with his lack of connections, could destroy him. Statewide races in NC tend to favor Dems. The council of state is still a 6-3 D majority for example. Chris Rey's biggest problem is he's a nobody. Then again Burr's unknowns are something like 33% and in the last monthly PPP poll, the guy who did best against him was Heath Shuler, purely on name recognition.
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Sep 29, 2015 00:01
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Its not senator but Hickenlooper was mayor of Denver before becoming governor of Colorado. Rendell was mayor of Philly at some prior point before becoming governor of PA. But thats not what we are really talking about here, Spring Lake isn't Denver and it certainly isn't Philly.
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Sep 29, 2015 01:26
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De Nomolos posted:I'm thinking more so of people who launched themselves into notoriety as a Mayor. For example, being Mayor launched Sanders' career and was the base he had to run for Congress from. Obama on the other hand launched his career from the IL state house. He wasn't a Senator, but there's an anthropomorphic cheesesteak who fits this profile and will likely end up in the cabinet of a hypothetical Hillary Clinton administration. EDIT: Beaten by Cliff Racer. Anyway Fetterman's website is worth a look. As I mentioned, he has allies in national media, at least on the left-liberal end of things. He was just on Chris Hayes, and The Nation interviewed him. He's bald, covered in tattoos (he gets one every time someone is murdered in Braddock), and went to Harvard for a policy degree after doing community service in the Hill District for a few years. Obviously he's got no chance, and I personally like McGinty for the nomination, but he's an interesting guy and the Nation interview is well worth the read.
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Sep 29, 2015 01:40
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GalacticAcid posted:He wasn't a Senator, but there's an anthropomorphic cheesesteak who fits this profile and will likely end up in the cabinet of a hypothetical Hillary Clinton administration. EDIT: Beaten by Cliff Racer. Gov. Wolf just endorsed McGuinty too. No surprise there, as McGuinty was his chief of staff, but the establishment is 100% lining up behind her as opposed to Sestak and Fetterman.
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Sep 29, 2015 01:47
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Sestak is damaged goods and Fetterman is unknown and a wild card. Mcginty will win the primary and go on to a very competitive general. I previously said Toomey would squeek it out, but I think his planned parenthood opposition and running against a woman might tip the scales against him.
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Sep 29, 2015 02:02
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George Brauchler, the Colorado DA that prosecuted the Aurora Theater shooting case, announced today that he won't be challenging Michael Bennett (D-CO) for his Senate seat. Brauchler was considered one of the strongest possible candidates after Rep. Mike Coffman declined to run. The Colorado state GOP has been looking like a mess recently, between this and canceling their 2016 caucus (presumably in a move to undercut Trump). Guess that means Bennett's safe, at least! http://www.denverpost.com/election/ci_28901660/brauchler-wont-seek-u-s-senate-bid-leaves
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Sep 30, 2015 23:47
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How odd, Brauchler sounded like he was in a week or two ago. I don't think he stood much of a shot anyway, they'd have needed a really good candidate to beat Bennet and there really aren't any in CO. As to PA news, I still support Specter. McGuinty was a distant fourth or fifth in last year's gubernatorial primary. You can't just show up, say "Here I am, the candidate Harrisburg wants!" and expect to just go out and win. She has yet to show any knack for connecting with the voters and I'd fear that more than Specter's lack of a knack for campaign management any day. I swear she'll be the Democratic Tom Smith if she gets the nomination.
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Oct 1, 2015 03:42
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Cliff Racer posted:How odd, Brauchler sounded like he was in a week or two ago. I don't think he stood much of a shot anyway, they'd have needed a really good candidate to beat Bennet and there really aren't any in CO. Do....you mean Sestak? 'Cause Specter has a notable handicap that is preventing him from jumping into this race...
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Oct 1, 2015 03:56
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Franco Potente posted:Do....you mean Sestak? 'Cause Specter has a notable handicap that is preventing him from jumping into this race... if dead people can vote, dead people can run.
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Oct 1, 2015 04:00
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Breaking news: Specter runs as specter.
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Oct 1, 2015 04:22
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Fetterman has Bill de Blasio's campaign manager on board. As expected, he's getting financial support from Pittsburgh restuarateurs. Kevin Sousa is the biggest name in Pittsburgh dining circles, and he owes Fetterman pretty big. He netted about $122,000 in his first week after announcing, which is chump change in the long run of course. But I could see him getting significant media attention ~Sestak has been pretty bad with media relations, and McGinty has been off the radar. To reiterate, I don't have any illusions that John Fetterman could be the Democratic nominee, let alone unseat a well-funded Toomey in the general. And the Pittsburgh Restaurant Scene is hardly the kind of economic powerhouse that turns the tides of statewide elections with national consequences. Still it might be good to have a goofy, reasonably qualified person to bring some focus on the race and get people interested. Cliff Racer posted:As to PA news, I still support I can see the reason for your trepidation given the lack of any buzz around her campaign. And Sestak gets a ton of poo poo but he kept the Senate race closer than the gubernatorial race. (Possibly worth noting, the Post Gazette endorsed Sestak...and endorsed loving Tom Corbett. Plus Senate races get more national attention and funding than governors' races.) He also has a really impressive head to head timeline comparing his life to Toomey's - unfortunately his site buries it pretty deep on the "About Joe'" section of his website, and I suppose that memories of 2004 are too potent to put too much faith in this kind of thing. And the graphic itself isn't particularly compelling:  Still, having talked with some people who worked for his campaign - he sounds unpleasant on a personal level, and instead of spending the intervening years. building up his resume or doing something with a cool narrative, he's spent Pax Toomey acting like World's Thirstiest Would-Be Senator. Anyway I don't think he'd be quite the electoral disaster that a couple of the other posters ITT do (I voted for him instead of Specter last time around, sue me), but I'm still putting my trust in the Wolf team and Rendell. And of course, all of this comes with the caveat that I left PA a couple years ago so I'm not the freshest set of eyes or ears. Definitely not staking out claims of omniscience here.
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Oct 1, 2015 05:33
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Franco Potente posted:Do....you mean Sestak? 'Cause Specter has a notable handicap that is preventing him from jumping into this race... Yeah sorry, Sestak. Sorry for the name flub. edit: Though in fairness to the Post-Gazette, Corbett-Onorato and Sestak-Toomey were two very different races. In that sense the Corbett endorsement was no big surprise. He ran his AG office like it was a gubernatorial campaign (because it was one, basically) and spent most of his time talking about how he hated child molesters, insurance fraudsters and other such people. He was actually viewed as a competent work-horse who got results as AG. Its why he managed to keep his job in 2008 when all of the other Republicans were getting massacred in PA. He was the presumptive governor to most poll watchers even before Democrats' fortunes turned. And when they did turn, oh man did they turn. Rendell, who had always been pretty popular in PA,'s fell into the toilet and Onorato, who had that unpopular liquor tax hike hanging around his neck, saw his collapse as well. It makes sense that the PPG would want to back a winner who hadn't staked out any divisive positions yet. On the senatorial side however Toomey had been a right-wing bomb thrower for over a decade while Sestak was a respected, popular, suburban Democrat with a military background. Not to mention the very real difference between electing senators, who vote on national issues, and electing governors who manage the state government. So yeah, its not surprising to me that in 2010 the Pittsburgh paper would endorse Corbett nor that Allegheny County would vote for him while at the same time having both the paper and the county voting Democratic in the senate race. edit2: That is a nice chart but it falls apart at the end because if it ever takes off Sestak will have to explain what exactly it was that ranked Toomey most extreme in the country as well as explaining all of the not so charitable things Sestak has been doing the past few years. Cliff Racer has issued a correction as of 00:47 on Oct 2, 2015 |
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Oct 2, 2015 00:28
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Maggie Hassan is running for Senate in NH. Bad news for Ayotte.
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Oct 5, 2015 15:04
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It is very bad news for Ayotte. The ratings groups might start the race at ever so slightly Republican but I think Hassan has better than even odds of winning. Democratic candidate recruitment has been off the charts this time around, probably because of how pronounced the differences between presidential and off-year cycles have become.
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Oct 6, 2015 01:51
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