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Monkey Fracas posted:Man the worst thing about the current situation is there's really no end in sight. Americans realizing that conservatism as a concept is deeply broken. So nothing, really.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:00
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DOOP posted:So what's with the McCarthy-Ellmers thing everyone's talking about They did it, rumors swirling he's gonna resign over it.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:00
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DOOP posted:So what's the McCarthy-Ellmers thing everyone's talking about Thy're having an affair and rumor has it there's enough evidence they may be forced to resign.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:00
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evilweasel posted:Thy're having an affair and rumor has it there's enough evidence they may be forced to resign. Is there a House rule against loving or is it just optics of having an affair. (I'm assuming one or both are married) If two single congresspeople did it, would anyone care/get in trouble/resign?
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Oct 9, 2015 18:04
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zoux posted:As this drags on an on and gets worse and worse and things get more and more dire for the party, I don't see how he resists becoming Republican Cincinnatus and saving their asses. The pressure from his colleagues has got to be immense. How ambitious is Ryan? I honestly don't know if he would be willing to make his own life miserable and sacrifice future ambitions to save the party. Boehner was content to be speaker so he could ignore the impact his decisions had on a potential senate or presidential run.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:04
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DOOP posted:Is there a House rule against loving or is it just optics of having an affair. (I'm assuming one or both are married) Just the optics, at least here in America. In France, affairs are seen as normal especially among the elites and when politicians have them it doesn't seem to hurt their ratings much.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:05
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computer parts posted:Should probably also increase the number of representatives too though. While we're at it allow them to just telephone in their votes and handle committee by telecom and just stay in their office in their district so they don't live a block away from every lobbyist in the world.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:05
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They're both married, and social values Republicans think premarital sex is a sin.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:06
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Monkey Fracas posted:Man the worst thing about the current situation is there's really no end in sight. If the Democrats take the House in 2020 or following the census and manage to have complete control of the government, I expect they will force through a repeal of the anti-deficiency act or modify it in such a way that shutdowns can't occur, and eliminate the debt limit legislatively (instead of just House rules that automatically raise it). They should, but I doubt they will, end gerrymandering as a practice because it's always going to work against them naturally (due to urban areas being more strongly Democratic than rural areas are Republican) as well.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:06
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I would be a little skeptical of those rumors. quote:Ellmers was referring to emails sent to dozens of Republican lawmakers recently by Steve Baer, a Chicago-based GOP donor, claiming the two Republican lawmakers were engaged in a romantic relationship.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:07
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I've been taking it as read but would Ryan even be a sure bet for Speaker? People were pretty confident about McCarthy last week.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:08
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Antti posted:I really am Boehner, I bumbled my way into his strategy from earlier this year and got "You succeeded, but it wasn't pretty." It would be. Short term shutdowns have played very poorly for them, a long-term one would be crippling. Let alone default.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:08
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Steve Baer is MIGF
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Oct 9, 2015 18:08
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Somehow this House GOP meltdown is all Hillary Clinton's fault. I suggest a Permanent Select Committee be empaneled to investigate. Speakerghazi must be exposed to the American people.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:08
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zoux posted:I've been taking it as read but would Ryan even be a sure bet for Speaker? People were pretty confident about McCarthy last week. I posted earlier, I think the Freedom folks could have some concerns with his positions on immigration and that he's part and parcel owned by the establishment and might be even more likely to deal with Democrats.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:09
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I posted earlier, I think the Freedom folks could have some concerns with his positions on immigration and that he's part and parcel owned by the establishment and might be even more likely to deal with Democrats. I agree but actually being dangled over the pit while all their political foes popped bottles might have served as a wakeup call on this particular issue.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:10
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:It would be. Short term shutdowns have played very poorly for them, a long-term one would be crippling. Let alone default. specifically since the shut down would start 2 weeks before Christmas, and knowing how awful the GOP is, go at least through Christmas.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:12
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zoux posted:I've been taking it as read but would Ryan even be a sure bet for Speaker? People were pretty confident about McCarthy last week. Not a sure bet, but he has more credibility than most of the establishment types as a True Believer. If he can't win though, there is literally nobody who can win.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:12
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DOOP posted:Is there a House rule against loving or is it just optics of having an affair. (I'm assuming one or both are married) Two singles would depend on the party and the cant. Your Dems'd be fine, especially if it was outside of work. Repubs'd have to get married sooner rather than later. If it was two dudes or ladies they'd for sure have to get married with a quickness.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:13
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:It would be. Short term shutdowns have played very poorly for them, a long-term one would be crippling. Let alone default. If the blame sticks squarely on their shoulders, yeah. And if it's not too far out from an actual election. But we're in a situation where there's that core 40% of people who will vote Republican regardless of what they actually do.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:14
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Antti posted:If the blame sticks squarely on their shoulders, yeah. And if it's not too far out from an actual election. But we're in a situation where there's that core 40% of people who will vote Republican regardless of what they actually do. Yes, which was the conceit.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:15
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If this is the prophesied split though, then the base divides and the world changes for the better.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:18
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A shutdown would be particularly damaging because the Presidential Election starts in earnest soon so people pay more attention to politics, and there's a specific person to blame. And the Republican Party really can't afford to lose this election because the next Supreme Court nominee can end the solid conservative majority on the Supreme Court.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:18
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evilweasel posted:A shutdown would be particularly damaging because the Presidential Election starts in earnest soon so people pay more attention to politics, and there's a specific person to blame. And the Republican Party really can't afford to lose this election because the next Supreme Court nominee can end the solid conservative majority on the Supreme Court. insha'allah
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Oct 9, 2015 18:20
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evilweasel posted:If the Democrats take the House in 2020 or following the census and manage to have complete control of the government, I expect they will force through a repeal of the anti-deficiency act or modify it in such a way that shutdowns can't occur, and eliminate the debt limit legislatively (instead of just House rules that automatically raise it). They should, but I doubt they will, end gerrymandering as a practice because it's always going to work against them naturally (due to urban areas being more strongly Democratic than rural areas are Republican) as well. Man this really seems unlikely, although 5 years is a long time. I wish we had two political parties instead of one political party and one uncompromising insurgent ideologue death cult, that would be pretty great
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Oct 9, 2015 18:21
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Isn't our old floor-making GBS threads pal Charles C. Johnson a key figure in the rumor mongering as well? That alone should cast a ton of doubt on its credibility.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:21
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Another reported school shooting. Texas Southern University currently on lockdown.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:23
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Monkey Fracas posted:Man this really seems unlikely, although 5 years is a long time. That's the way politics work in the US. You think nothing is ever going to change and then something breaks and it all changes at once. Go look at the process that turned California blue.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:25
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Monkey Fracas posted:Man this really seems unlikely, although 5 years is a long time. 2020 isn't because it's likely then, it's because it is literally the earliest possible date where it becomes a vague possibility because it's a Presidential year (more Democrats vote) and as far as possible from the disastrous gerrymander from 2010 so the gerrymander is as weak as possible. And if they don't, they're hosed unless they manage to sweep a bunch of legislatures that year and redistrict for 2022. There is no realistic possibility the Republicans lose the House before that without some crazy black swan event.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:25
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evilweasel posted:2020 isn't because it's likely then, it's because it is literally the earliest possible date where it becomes a vague possibility because it's a Presidential year (more Democrats vote) and as far as possible from the disastrous gerrymander from 2010 so the gerrymander is as weak as possible. And if they don't, they're hosed unless they manage to sweep a bunch of legislatures that year and redistrict for 2022. Like shutting down the government for multiple months and partially defaulting.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:27
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quote:Texas Southern University is a historically black college in Houston. Good to know.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:27
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This is like Pacific Rim but instead of Kaiju it's the time between school shooting incidents becoming exponentially smaller.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:29
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computer parts posted:That's the way politics work in the US. You think nothing is ever going to change and then something breaks and it all changes at once. It's the way politics works worldwide, period. Things look nutty now, but the demographics mean it really is only a matter of time before the country goes Democratic permanently or the GOP changes its tune. EDIT: The linked article also leaps into my head at least every other year or so, as some "entirely impossible to predict" sea change happens somewhere in the world and everyone leaps to their feet in total shock and surprise. Oh brother.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:32
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Well there's school shootings and then there's shootings that happen at schools. I mean they're both terrible but only one is going to capture the national attention.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:33
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I thought the election was going to be the bread and circuses for 2016, guess I was wrong.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:33
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I don't understand why people think it's a slam dunk that anyone in the House is going to resign over an affair. Mark Sanford was bludgeoned with his affair and terrible cover-up during the 2013 special election and he won. It's certainly possible, but people are treating it as an inevitability. It's amazing what voters are willing to rationalize to get their guy/gal in the seat. vvv That's fair. I was thinking it was bad enough to drop out of the Speaker race for similar reasons, but not bad enough to give up his current spot. Grey Fox fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Oct 9, 2015 |
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Oct 9, 2015 18:34
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Grey Fox posted:I don't understand why people think it's a slam dunk that anyone in the House is going to resign over an affair. Mark Sanford was bludgeoned with his affair and terrible cover-up during the 2013 special election and he won. It's certainly possible, but people are treating it as an inevitability. It's amazing what voters are willing to rationalize to get their guy/gal in the seat. I think standards are different for leadership than line members. It's one thing for random idiot member to have an affair. It's another thing for the Majority Leader to have an affair. The latter reflects much more on the party as a whole.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:39
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Grey Fox posted:I don't understand why people think it's a slam dunk that anyone in the House is going to resign over an affair. Mark Sanford was bludgeoned with his affair and terrible cover-up during the 2013 special election and he won. It's certainly possible, but people are treating it as an inevitability. It's amazing what voters are willing to rationalize to get their guy/gal in the seat. Mark Sanford loses this in almost any other state, and he did lose the governorship. The rest you can probably credit to his superhuman vanity.
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Oct 9, 2015 18:43
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evilweasel posted:I think standards are different for leadership than line members. It's one thing for random idiot member to have an affair. It's another thing for the Majority Leader to have an affair. The latter reflects much more on the party as a whole. Especially when they used to stake so much of their position on being the Not-Blowjob-Havers
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Oct 9, 2015 18:45
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In the lastest sign of how hosed the House is, a discharge petition actually worked: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/house-bid-to-revive-ex-im-has-support-to-force-vote-backer-saysquote:U.S. House members gathered enough signatures Friday to force a floor vote to revive the Export-Import Bank over objections from some Republican leaders. For reference, these have succeeded precisely once since 1993. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Oct 9, 2015 |
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Oct 9, 2015 18:53
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