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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

JBark posted:

If anyone want to laugh at my misfortune, I'll be buying a house here in Perth in the next 1-2 months. Catch a falling knife, my rear end. More like "catch a falling lightsaber".

Ah well, at least I was able to push back the purchase until now, with median prices down I dunno, 30-50k from the peak a couple years back. Not gonna be much consolation when they just keep going down, but the plan is to own this thing for 20+ years, so barring a Japan style deflation it should hopefully be a wash in the end.

I'll just have to completely ignore house price reports for a decade or so. :)

why own a home?

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I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Rime posted:

Nah, I'm buying myself a yacht for my 26th birthday. :homebrew:

What happened to your van?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle26766966/

quote:

House prices likely to loom large in Washington speech by Stephen Poloz

Canadian home prices are expected to turn in another record-breaking month in September, renewing concerns that low interest rates are fuelling an unsustainable housing boom just as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is expected to touch on the subject in a speech Monday.

Mr. Poloz is set to give a speech in Washington to the National Association for Business Economics on the topic of financial stability that will likely address how the bank has attempted to balance the economic shock from falling oil prices with the soaring housing market this year.

“I’d expect, at minimum, a two-pronged approach on energy and housing,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Derek Holt said in an interview. He suspects Mr. Poloz will not stray from the bank’s overall message on the housing market so far this year: that rising home prices should be monitored, but they don’t yet pose a significant risk to the economy.

The central banker’s speech comes at a time when Canada’s housing market is firing on all cylinders. Both the Teranet-National Bank Home Price index and the Canadian Real Estate Association’s monthly market update, due out Thursday, are expected to show that national prices soared 6 per cent to 7 per cent last month, hitting a new high of $450,000, Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter wrote in a research note last week. If so, it would be among the best showing on record for September, typically a slow month for the housing market.

Home prices in the Greater Toronto Area rose 9.2 per cent last month on an annual basis, while the Toronto Real Estate Board predicted that total sales will reach the 100,000 mark this year for the first time in history. In Metro Vancouver, home prices shot up nearly 19 per cent in September from year-ago levels. Calgary was an exception, with prices falling 0.26 per cent last month, although the city’s housing correction has so far been mild despite the drop in oil prices this year.

Nationally, September also proved to be an unusually strong month for new home construction.

Housing starts surged unexpectedly by 7.7 per cent, hitting an eight-year high and surprising many economists who had called for a slowdown. It was the second month of strong growth after starts surged 11 per cent in August.

The increase in new home construction was driven by multifamily starts, which hit their second-highest level in 25 years last month, noted Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic. Despite a market slowdown in the oil-fuelled Prairies, condo and apartment starts rose an annualized 13 per cent in the region last month, while jumping 26.5 per cent in Quebec and 42 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

“In the span of about three months, Canadian homebuilding activity has gone from a controlled simmer to a rolling boil,” Mr. Kavcic wrote in a research note.

High levels of new home construction in the Toronto area prompted Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. chief economist Bob Dugan to warn last week that developers need to keep a close eye on their inventory of unsold condos. However, strong demand for condos has pushed the number of unsold units down this year to levels not seen since 2012, said National Bank of Canada economist Marc Pinsonneault, who argued that it would “be premature to panic about overbuilding.”

With the federal election campaign heading into its final week, party leaders have danced around the subject of soaring home prices by offering measures that would boost the market even further, such as home renovation tax credits, while promising to track speculation by foreign real estate investors if necessary.

But even with little in the way of government or central bank policy expected to cool home prices, the market just may slow itself.

“The deeper you go into all-time record-highs on every housing and consumer spending and household finance metric, the less likely you are to get continued growth,” Mr. Holt said.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
https://www.facebook.com/abc4corners/videos/10153233480455954/

Ausgoons watch Four Corners tonight at 8:30 on ABC about Chinese property investors.

also:

quote:

Housing bust now the greatest recession risk, say investment banks

House prices are set for a 7.5 per cent decline from March next year, with the resulting slowdown hitting the broader economy and risking a recession, economists have warned.

Several leading investment banks have tipped that Australia's housing market, which has been a driver of economic activity as mining has slowed, is close to peaking as household budgets are stretched and supply begins to outstrip demand.

Although softening prices would make the market more accessible to aspiring home owners, they could trap highly leveraged buyers and push up unemployment as the sector cooled.

Macquarie forecast in a research note on Monday that the nation was looking at a 7.5 per cent reduction from "peak to trough".

Credit Suisse goes a step further, warning that property investment in Australia is "riskier than the equity market", particularly in NSW.

"Home-buying conditions have deteriorated sharply," equity analysts Damien Boey and Hasan Tevfik​ wrote.

"Housing is no longer the safe haven asset relative to equities."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Alex Joiner said household debt measures had soared to their highest ever levels, raising the risk of a "hard landing".

The dwelling price to income ratio is at "never before observed" levels of five and a half times, and the household debt to gross domestic product ratio is at a "record high" 133.6 per cent.

That level of debt coupled with a downturn in housing could further crimp consumer spending and property investment once the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to tackle inflation by lifting interest rates.

He said that while the chance of a "hard landing" in the Chinese economy was small, a sharp decline in demand for housing in overheated markets such as Melbourne and Sydney was more probable and would drag the broader economy with it.

"We are not forecasting collapse or the bursting of any perceived bubble," Mr Joiner wrote in a note.

"That said, it is not difficult to envisage a more hard landing scenario in the property market.

"This would clearly have a greater negative macroeconomic impact channelled through households and the residential construction cycle."
Housing oversupply

Housing oversupply was also a risk as population growth slowed and property prices in Australia's two biggest cities remained inaccessible to many, he said.

Mr Joiner's concerns chime with several other economists and analysts, who argue that Australia's reliance on residential property construction and buying to fill the hole left by the downturn in mining infrastructure spending and, more recently, commodity prices, has made the country vulnerable to a further growth slowdown, or even recession.

Efforts by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to lean against the stimulatory effects of record low interest rates by controlling speculative investment appear to be working, but could prove counterproductive, some argued.

"Housing has certainly been the sector keeping Australia afloat post the mining boom. However, the sector appears to have peaked as regulators apply restrictive measures," JCP Investment Partners' head of of institutional business, Wes Campbell, wrote.

"Macro prudential policy tightening, tighter lending standards, interest-only loans being discouraged by regulators and the repricing of credit are all expected to negatively impact [on] house prices and the demand for credit," he wrote.

He rated the chance of recession – after nearly 25 years without – as "elevated".

"The combination of weak disposable income and high household debt is concerning, particularly given Australia may have to raise interest rates in the future to follow the United States," Mr Campbell warned.

Macquarie also cautioned that slowing population growth could eventually lead to an overhang in new housing supply, which could, ultimately, drive property prices down and leave over-leveraged households exposed to negative equity.

"Building approvals and housing commencements, at 200,000 plus, are running well ahead of estimated underlying demand, which we peg at 170,000 to 180,000 once current and prospective population growth rates are incorporated," analysts James McIntyre and Kevin Ge wrote on Monday.

They said supply had undershot demand for "several years", and this had been reflected in higher property prices.

This would have to reverse, they argued, once supply outstripped demand.

They forecast a slowing in housing starts in 2016 and 2017, particularly in the high-density apartments segment.

"This is likely to be accompanied by weaker dwelling prices as the market struggles to absorb the currently bulging supply pipeline," they wrote.


http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-bust-now-the-greatest-recession-risk-say-investment-banks-20151012-gk6pjz.html

JBark
Jun 27, 2000
Good passwords are a good idea.

etalian posted:

why own a home?

I'd prefer not to, especially in the current market, but I've got 2 little kids about to start primary school, so the instability of renting in Australia is a complete no-go. If it was like some European countries where I could reliably rent for 5-10 years at a time, that would be great, but it sure doesn't work like that here. We've been in 5 places the past 8 years, and almost every move has been landlord driven. Selling the house, refusing to fix air conditioning, jacking the rent, you name it. Doesn't bother me much, but I can't be uprooting kids every year.

So we'll get the best place we can afford in an area with good primary and secondary public schools, and never move and never pay for private school.

And it's not like I don't know any better, I owned my place in the US before we moved to Oz, and it was only sheer luck that I missed the housing market crash by a few months. Yep, jumping into a housing market with eerie parallels to the US housing market pre-GFC. Whee!!!

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Most mornings we’d find someone had tried to force open the windows. After the Brixton riots, its value halved overnight.
"...But now that Brixton has gentrified like crazy and London property prices in general have gone through the roof, it's worth the best part of a million and lol who needs a pension anyway?"

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




So we are on the verge of inviting the USA back into this hilarious housing bubble right?

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Just renewed my lease again, another maximum BC-allowed rate increase :(
I don't entirely blame him though, the city has been going nuts jacking prices up for building owners. Our idiotic emotion-driven sewage treatment plant is a huge cause of it. Also Victoria's pipes of all sorts are old as poo poo and previous governments kept kicking the can down the street so suddenly the city needs a ton of money for storm and sewer upkeep. We also have our bridge replacement fiasco sending us into record city debt plus the mayor now has some good but expensive ideas on bike infastructre and addressing homelessness. It all adds up so the rates have been skyrocketing, which are now being passed down to the tenants. It was actually fairly interesting talking with the landlord for so long, he went over all his numbers for his buildings showing us his expenses and income. Even with rent increases his profits have been going down every year (but he's still in the black so gently caress capital) and we're still paying less than what he'd charge if we were new tenants moving into this unit today.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Great story about the origins of the cmhc.

http://m.thetyee.ca/News/2015/10/12...=editorial-1015

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

B33rChiller posted:

Not sure what kind of truck, but if you're headed to camp in Mordor, with winter coming up soon, you should probably buy a trailer to tow a couple of these behind your new truck. Gotta keep up with the Joneses

Real Talk: I think I'd actually really enjoy going out into the middle of nowhere for a couple months, working a lovely job and then juts relaxing with books during my off time. Bank every cent I make, pay off the reasonably small amount of debt that I have, make life easier.

That said, I'd rather get the teaching job.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
It's a drat shame there's no oil patch work this year, or probably the next five years. I'd kill for an entry level welding gig right now.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Baronjutter posted:

but he's still in the black so gently caress capital

I know this is D&D and all, but this is an odd thing to write. I want landlords to have sensible income statements - for one thing it leads to stability and long term thinking by sane players in the rental market. Without this, you end up as a place like Vancouver where all the landlords are small-time, short-term specuvestors, and it's renoviction / flipping galore as they all eventually tire of the negative cash flow month after month.

But gently caress capital and The Man, maaaan.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I know for a fact that airbnb has been a boon to poo poo head specuvestors.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

I know for a fact that airbnb has been a boon to poo poo head specuvestors.

I'm not surprised. It wouldn't be such an attractive option if, you know, there was anything approaching a sane cap rate to be had anywhere in the vicinity of Vancouver.

But gently caress the capitalists, amirite

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
While we're on the subject, can someone explain the appeal of staying in an AirBnB instead of a proper hotel? Hotels are loving awesome.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I hate hotels, always rent a short-stay apartment. I just want a little cozy home to crash in. You generally get way more space and a working kitchen for less money than a hotel. I really like having a kitchen when I travel so I don't go bankrupt on restaurants.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Oct 13, 2015

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Baronjutter posted:

I hate hotels, always rent a short-stay apartment. I just want a little cozy home to crash in. You generally get way more space and a working kitchen for less money than a hotel.

Yeah, I didn't express myself the way I had intended. I like the extra space and amenities of a serviced apartment, but (much like with normal landlords) I love the impersonality of dealing with a faceless corporation that doesn't give a gently caress about me in any way, for better or worse. I hate staying with friends or relatives for the same reason.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
When you have to travel to loving calgary 25 loving times a year, an airbnb with a motherfucking kitchen is a godsend because you can cook your own meals instead eating white trash cuisine.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Cultural Imperial posted:

When you have to travel to loving calgary 25 loving times a year, an airbnb with a motherfucking kitchen is a godsend because you can cook your own meals instead eating white trash cuisine.

Fair point, you won't hear an argument from me about the deplorable state of cuisine in this city.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

PT6A posted:

Yeah, I didn't express myself the way I had intended. I like the extra space and amenities of a serviced apartment, but (much like with normal landlords) I love the impersonality of dealing with a faceless corporation that doesn't give a gently caress about me in any way, for better or worse. I hate staying with friends or relatives for the same reason.

Hotels are better for business travel for this reason, but AirBnb rules for city vacations. The places are typically in more interesting neighbourhoods, it's usually cheaper and with zero nickel/diming, you get a kitchen with at least the basics for cooking, and it has wifi that actually works.

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
I've done AirBnB dozens of times and only once ever actually regularly seen the owners (in Berlin the suite was in the upstairs of their home, even then we'd go days without seeing them). It's often just as faceless as a hotel.

Less so because you don't need to check in or out, you just use a code for the lockbox to get in.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

HookShot posted:

I've done AirBnB dozens of times and only once ever actually regularly seen the owners (in Berlin the suite was in the upstairs of their home, even then we'd go days without seeing them). It's often just as faceless as a hotel.

Less so because you don't need to check in or out, you just use a code for the lockbox to get in.

Was it a hungarian italian couple?

Also a lot of airbnb's are basically just hotels. Where we stayed in Haarlem was an apartment that the owners don't live in they bought and maintain strictly for airbnb. Way way nicer than a hotel and it came with bikes, booze, and a ton of snacks.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Oct 13, 2015

less than three
Aug 9, 2007



Fallen Rib
Renting apartments is fantastic. When I was in Helsinki this summer we paid ~$100 CA/night for a studio apartment with two beds. It was cheaper than a hostel and has the privacy like a hotel room. Having a kitchen saves so much money versus eating out all the time.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Lexicon posted:

Hotels are better for business travel for this reason, but AirBnb rules for city vacations. The places are typically in more interesting neighbourhoods, it's usually cheaper and with zero nickel/diming, you get a kitchen with at least the basics for cooking, and it has wifi that actually works.

I got all of this in Spain for a month, well under $100/night, from a company that handles a bunch of those sorts of apartments. Maybe it's unreasonable, but I have a lot more confidence dealing with people who do this all the time all over multiple cities, rather than some amateur who's likely as not some kind of real estate speculator.

Having a laundry machine is the best!

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

Baronjutter posted:

Was it a hungarian italian couple?

Also a lot of airbnb's are basically just hotels. Where we stayed in Haarlem was an apartment that the owners don't live in they bought and maintain strictly for airbnb. Way way nicer than a hotel and it came with bikes, booze, and a ton of snacks.

She was Hungarian, I don't know about him. Was it in Schichauweg on the S2 by any chance?

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

PT6A posted:

I got all of this in Spain for a month, well under $100/night, from a company that handles a bunch of those sorts of apartments. Maybe it's unreasonable, but I have a lot more confidence dealing with people who do this all the time all over multiple cities, rather than some amateur who's likely as not some kind of real estate speculator.

Having a laundry machine is the best!

Spain fair enough - but good luck finding that in NYC, say. And if I were a tourist to any Canadian city, I'd sure as hell rather stay in an AirBnb than one of the bland, lovely hotel chains with their constant money-grubbing and saccharine customer service.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
No lie, I once expensed $550/night at a holiday inn express in Calgary because a bunch of pig loving assholes held an oil convention.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Cultural Imperial posted:

No lie, I once expensed $550/night at a holiday inn express in Calgary because a bunch of pig loving assholes held an oil convention.

Was it the one next to Lord Nelson's pub? That place is the worst loving shithole (the pub for sure, the hotel I'm 99% sure about).

Albino Squirrel
Apr 25, 2003

Miosis more like meiosis
Hotels are impractically expensive if you travel with little kids. You need a fridge for milk and applesauce and whatever kind of weird yogurt thing they'll let you feed them this week. Ideally you'd like a separate bedroom so you have a) privacy, and b) enough room to set up a portable crib in the living area. Most hotels will charge you many hundreds of dollars a night for the juniorest of suites; an AirBNB or VRBO will run you about 33-60% of the cost depending on the city.

PT6A posted:

I got all of this in Spain for a month, well under $100/night, from a company that handles a bunch of those sorts of apartments. Maybe it's unreasonable, but I have a lot more confidence dealing with people who do this all the time all over multiple cities, rather than some amateur who's likely as not some kind of real estate speculator.

Having a laundry machine is the best!
Spain has pretty drat cheap hotels compared to most of Northern Europe, but even there AirBNB (or, as you point out, apart-hotels) are cheaper still.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

HookShot posted:

She was Hungarian, I don't know about him. Was it in Schichauweg on the S2 by any chance?

Nice! We stayed in the same place. Yeah just a few blocks from the Shichauweg station. Basically as far south as you can go in Berlin yet still super convenient to get to the centre in like 15 min by suburban train. Airbnb and other such things like that are great. You can pack a lot less too when you have a washing machine.

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

Baronjutter posted:

I hate hotels, always rent a short-stay apartment. I just want a little cozy home to crash in. You generally get way more space and a working kitchen for less money than a hotel. I really like having a kitchen when I travel so I don't go bankrupt on restaurants.

How do you manage this without having to have an extra bag to carry food from city to city?

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

tagesschau posted:

How do you manage this without having to have an extra bag to carry food from city to city?

Well, cities have these specific retailers known in the vernacular as "grocery stores". They are willing to exchange food for money.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

tagesschau posted:

How do you manage this without having to have an extra bag to carry food from city to city?

Well, you go to the grocery store, and buy food there.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

PT6A posted:

Well, you go to the grocery store, and buy food there.

You'd be surprised how many people have no idea how to shop and cook for themselves. Without fastfood they would wither and die :qq:

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
Granted, if you're not there for long, you'll either have to throw some stuff out or do without having things like mayonnaise for sandwiches. It's a little bit more of a pain than cooking at home, but it's really not a huge deal.

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

Lexicon posted:

Well, cities have these specific retailers known in the vernacular as "grocery stores". They are willing to exchange food for money.

Package sizes in the grocery store generally assume you won't be leaving in three days. You're pretty much guaranteed to waste most of anything that needs refrigeration, like half-and-half.

flashman
Dec 16, 2003

just buy the individual packets for 25 cents if you really need that mayo

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Furnaceface posted:

So we are on the verge of inviting the USA back into this hilarious housing bubble right?

The US market is a bit different- areas considered upscale prior to the last crash are back up to or above the 06-07 prices, and hot new areas are also way up. However, less desirable areas haven't recovered whatsoever. All the money has fled to "safe" places .

Origination is still poo poo despite the promises of stringency. You only need a job, rather just a pulse like before , to qualify for the max nonjumbo loan (417k, which is where all prices are trending to).

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

CBC posted:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/why-kids-should-be-taught-personal-finance-in-school-and-at-home-1.3212530

Why kids should be taught personal finance in school - and at home

A handful of schools already teach personal finance, but it's far from the norm

Every year, a Manitoba high school teacher asks his graduating students to create a budget for the next year. They write down their income and anticipated expenses, but they don't see how it adds up — and whether they're in the red — until the very end.

"Every single time I've done this ... they see that they're $15,000 in the hole for the year," says Kyle Prevost, a high school teacher and co-author of More Money for Beer and Textbooks.

Comments posted:

As a Banker I do not support this decision. How else am I going to pay for my third wife's new Porsche and Caribbean vacation property if people are not permanently indebted to me?

:laugh:

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MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

tagesschau posted:

Package sizes in the grocery store generally assume you won't be leaving in three days. You're pretty much guaranteed to waste most of anything that needs refrigeration, like half-and-half.

gently caress this is not complicated. Just bring some salt, peppar and maybe oil and subsist on things like fresh bread, eggs, bacon, canned tuna, steak, fresh vegetables, etc etc etc. There's tens of thousands of good cooking alternatives that require neither condiments nor a truck-loads of spices. This is a non-issue. Almost no matter what you'll eat you'll still save a butt-load compared to eating out 3 meals a day.

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