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TACD
Oct 27, 2000

Here's something I don't think we've seen before: A study concludes that we are already committed to levels of sea level rise that will put Miami, New Orleans and others below water.

quote:

The authors projected business-as-usual carbon emissions, in addition to the complication of the melting West Antarctic ice sheet, a process some experts fear is irreversible.

They also considered what might happen if the world were to make a big turnaround, reaching peak carbon emissions by 2020.

This radical scenario would have to occur far earlier than the current aim of some world powers to peak by 2050, said Strauss.

An online tool at choices.climatecentral.org allows users to see the impacts on various US cities. A global version is expected in the next month, Strauss said.

The tool shows which US cities may face "lock-in dates beyond which the cumulative effects of carbon emissions likely commit them to long-term sea-level rise that could submerge land under more than half of the city's population," said the study.

"Norfolk, Virginia, for example, faces a lock-in date of 2045 under a scenario of unabated carbon emissions."

For cities like Miami and New Orleans, the limits are already exceeded.

"In our analysis, a lot of cities have futures that depend on our carbon choices but some appear to be already lost," Strauss said.

"And it is hard to imagine how we could defend Miami in the long run."

Miami's low elevation and porous limestone foundation mean that sea walls and levees will not help, he said.

...

One beloved American city, New Orleans, home to jazz music and some of the nation's most beloved cuisine, is already sinking.

"New Orleans is a really sad story," Strauss said.
"It is a lot worse looking than Miami."

New York is also in peril, and under a worst-case scenario, the city could be consigned to an un-livable future by the year 2085, according to the study.

But strong action—the kind that would reduce carbon emissions in the year 2050 to levels that more closely resemble those seen in 1950—could make a difference.
The paper itself is freely available here if you are interested. Here's two of the key tables from the supplementary materials, showing how long we have under various RCP scenarios before we're committed to a given percentage of these cities being underwater. 'AE' means we are already past that point.

TACD fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Oct 13, 2015

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Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?
50% of Miami is now slated by 2035.

Remember that Rolling Stone article and how it was lambasted as grossly exaggerated?

quote:

When the water receded after Hurricane Milo of 2030, there was a foot of sand covering the famous bow-tie floor in the lobby of the Fontaine­bleau hotel in Miami Beach....
Yeah, well... maybe not so exaggerated. That's less than two decades from now, people. poo poo's coming fast.

vvv--it's been a decade since Katrina, now...

Evil_Greven fucked around with this message at 00:33 on Oct 14, 2015

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Sucks for NOLA, but Miami could not sink fast enough.

All of Florida, in fact.

Either that, or...

Hello Sailor
May 3, 2006

we're all mad here

The problem is that the Floridans will move to other parts of the US when their state sinks. So, we either have to do something about climate change or build the wall.

e:

Evil_Greven posted:

50% of Miami is now slated by 2035.

That's not quite right. 2035 is the projected year we're locked in to that eventual level of ocean rise (under RCP 8.5). It will still be a long time before it actually happens.

Hello Sailor fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Oct 14, 2015

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Evil_Greven posted:

50% of Miami is now slated by 2035.

Remember that Rolling Stone article and how it was lambasted as grossly exaggerated?

Yeah, well... maybe not so exaggerated. That's less than two decades from now, people. poo poo's coming fast.

vvv--it's been a decade since Katrina, now...

I remember reading this article and it is one of the things that caused me to start seriously thinking about climate change and get involved with CC advocacy. I try to tell people about how loving serious and real and insane the effects of climate change are going to be but people just don't want to think about it.

The thought of an entire city, an entire chunk of a State (south Florida) being rendered basically entirely uninhabitable is just too much for some people to process. It's crazy and disaster-movie sounding and unfortunately it is 100% real.

Only wish I weren't going to be dead before it happens so I can say I loving told you so.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

How are u posted:

I remember reading this article and it is one of the things that caused me to start seriously thinking about climate change and get involved with CC advocacy. I try to tell people about how loving serious and real and insane the effects of climate change are going to be but people just don't want to think about it.

The thought of an entire city, an entire chunk of a State (south Florida) being rendered basically entirely uninhabitable is just too much for some people to process. It's crazy and disaster-movie sounding and unfortunately it is 100% real.

Only wish I weren't going to be dead before it happens so I can say I loving told you so.

After a reclamation program that would make NL blush, we have polders full of elders. Elder polders.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

How are u posted:

I remember reading this article and it is one of the things that caused me to start seriously thinking about climate change and get involved with CC advocacy. I try to tell people about how loving serious and real and insane the effects of climate change are going to be but people just don't want to think about it.

The thought of an entire city, an entire chunk of a State (south Florida) being rendered basically entirely uninhabitable is just too much for some people to process. It's crazy and disaster-movie sounding and unfortunately it is 100% real.

Only wish I weren't going to be dead before it happens so I can say I loving told you so.

Did you know the boot of Louisiana doesn't exist anymore? This isn't because of climate change, but the shape of the state has actually changed because oil & gas developed destroyed the barriers keeping the marshlands from becoming sea.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Trabisnikof posted:

Did you know the boot of Louisiana doesn't exist anymore? This isn't because of climate change, but the shape of the state has actually changed because oil & gas developed destroyed the barriers keeping the marshlands from becoming sea.

Relevant link.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

-=SEND HELP=-


Pillbug

How are u posted:

I remember reading this article and it is one of the things that caused me to start seriously thinking about climate change and get involved with CC advocacy. I try to tell people about how loving serious and real and insane the effects of climate change are going to be but people just don't want to think about it.

The thought of an entire city, an entire chunk of a State (south Florida) being rendered basically entirely uninhabitable is just too much for some people to process. It's crazy and disaster-movie sounding and unfortunately it is 100% real.

Only wish I weren't going to be dead before it happens so I can say I loving told you so.

A lot of people absolutely can't be convinced because of "I'll be dead by then why do I care? Drill, baby, drill!" Other people go "meh, whatever they'll just have to move. It isn't like I live there. Won't affect me."

Radbot
Aug 12, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!
I'm feeling really good about buying land in Colorado now. Sure, it'll burn, but at least once the fuel is gone, I'll be able to get good line of sight on the rampaging hordes of climate refugees.

PERPETUAL IDIOT
Sep 12, 2003

enraged_camel posted:

Sucks for NOLA, but Miami could not sink fast enough.

All of Florida, in fact.

Either that, or...


Extremely funny gif my man.

Anyway, I'm very interested that the authors consider the city of Miami (basically the downtown CBD and Little Havana) and other "inland" parts of metro Miami like Hialeah, but no mention of Miami Beach which is already flooding at high tide. In fact, here's a news report from this past weekend:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article38329890.html

Miami Beach might not have a high enough population to justify inclusion, but if I had to guess it's going to be gone even before the city of Miami.

Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?

Hello Sailor posted:

That's not quite right. 2035 is the projected year we're locked in to that eventual level of ocean rise (under RCP 8.5). It will still be a long time before it actually happens.
Whoops. I knew that and still hosed up.

quote:

He recalled a meeting he attended when he was still on the levee board. It was considering a proposal to install markers around New Orleans showing how high the floodwaters rose during Katrina. Some of the markers would go on levees.

“They came to us because you can’t do anything on the levee without our permission,” recalled Barry, who said the board was supportive of the plan. “There was a guy there from the Business Council [of New Orleans]. He said, ‘This is a bad idea whose time should never come.’ He was worried you were going to scare people.”

black is 'walkable' land; red 'land' is not

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

-=SEND HELP=-


Pillbug

quote:

He was worried you were going to scare people

I don't get this attitude. I really, really don't. The human race, as a whole, should feel nothing but pants-making GBS threads terror when it comes to global warming. It's going to gently caress our poo poo and our poo poo will be hosed hard if we just keep up "business as usual."

but but but...but...NEXT QUARTER'S PROFITS!!!!!!!

Your Sledgehammer
May 10, 2010

Don`t fall asleep, you gotta write for THUNDERDOME

ToxicSlurpee posted:

I don't get this attitude. I really, really don't. The human race, as a whole, should feel nothing but pants-making GBS threads terror when it comes to global warming. It's going to gently caress our poo poo and our poo poo will be hosed hard if we just keep up "business as usual."

but but but...but...NEXT QUARTER'S PROFITS!!!!!!!

I know you know this, but there is literally nothing stopping "business as usual" and the sooner we accept this, the better. Paris discussions be damned.

E: I have very little faith in the human race to figure this out. Maybe that makes me a cynic, but I just think it means I'm a realist.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

When should I expect the Northern Icecaps to melt over completely for the very first time in summer, causing all of it to evaporate into boreal monsoons, allow hurricanes in winter, dry up the tropics to the point of unsuitability and toxify the seas and air with massive amounts of hydrogen sulfide? :suicide:

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

-=SEND HELP=-


Pillbug

Your Sledgehammer posted:

I know you know this, but there is literally nothing stopping "business as usual" and the sooner we accept this, the better. Paris discussions be damned.

E: I have very little faith in the human race to figure this out. Maybe that makes me a cynic, but I just think it means I'm a realist.

The realist in me says that the human race can probably figure something out and pull through it. We can pull it off. The issue is that it will involve a poo poo load of blood, death, and misery if we do. The wealthy and powerful like business as usual because the world going to poo poo won't hurt them that much. The rest of us, though, are going to have serious issues. To be honest I expect more violent revolution to be happening over the next several decades. If memory serves a lot of the violence and rebellion in the Middle East had food insecurity as a major component. Look at America, too; so many people are struggling to afford enough food that it's contributing to social unrest.

As this rock heats up food is going to get more scarce and those issues are going to get worse. Meanwhile the wealthy and powerful are going to go "lol gently caress you, pleb" and just keep drilling. I expect at least a billion deaths, probably more, in short order and would guess the human race would be down under 4 or 5 billion within a century.

The cynic in me says we'll just keep the status quo and pollute ourselves into extinction.

The rest of me wants to drink heavily and hope cirrhosis kills me before violence or starvation do.

Of course my idealist/sciency side says that a significant number of humans are going to look around and go "lol gently caress this place" and bugger off into somewhere in space. Lord knows I'd be in that crowd if I had the chance.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

ToxicSlurpee posted:

The realist in me says that the human race can probably figure something out and pull through it. We can pull it off. The issue is that it will involve a poo poo load of blood, death, and misery if we do. The wealthy and powerful like business as usual because the world going to poo poo won't hurt them that much. The rest of us, though, are going to have serious issues. To be honest I expect more violent revolution to be happening over the next several decades. If memory serves a lot of the violence and rebellion in the Middle East had food insecurity as a major component. Look at America, too; so many people are struggling to afford enough food that it's contributing to social unrest.


See what's happening in Syria?

Massive, ongoing drought brought on by climate change destroyed the farming livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of rural Syrians, sending them streaming into the cities looking for relief, causing overcrowding, unemployment, straining weak social services to the breaking point, and leaving tens of thousands of men unable to provide basic food and shelter for their families.

Climate change alone is not what caused the hell that is Syria today, but it played a large roll in setting the scene just right for it to happen.

Things are only going to get worse. Much, much worse. This is going to happen on a global scale.

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
Anyone reading this thread should have children because if you care about issues like these so will your children. Tipping the balance towards more clueless assholes that never leave a city and therefore don't notice or believe climate change isn't useful.

Placid Marmot
Apr 28, 2013

cowofwar posted:

Anyone reading this thread should have children because if you care about issues like these so will your children. Tipping the balance towards more clueless assholes that never leave a city and therefore don't notice or believe climate change isn't useful.

We've been through this before.
Even the people who read and contribute to this thread who *care* about pollution and climate change will never be able to undo the damage that they've done to the planet, and adding more people to the planet, even if they *care* too, will only deepen the hole.
Rich people (i.e. anyone who can access somethingawful, among others) are the people who, if they care about the environment, should not be having children.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP
You should be actively removing 'rich' children to be truly moral.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

This feels like genocide advocacy.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!
kill you're self

- something awful goons

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

blowfish posted:

kill you're self

- something awful goons

The audience for this advice is limited to goons, so

Mat Cauthon
Jan 2, 2006

The more tragic things get,
the more I feel like laughing.



ToxicSlurpee posted:

Of course my idealist/sciency side says that a significant number of humans are going to look around and go "lol gently caress this place" and bugger off into somewhere in space. Lord knows I'd be in that crowd if I had the chance.

Haha, you think the mega-rich people like Elon Musk are going to let you on their space craft? You might win a lottery ticket that guarantees you a spot as a serf, at best.

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008
Humans are going to die on earth, but maybe our robot children will make it to space

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Meanwhile, Business as Usual is changing...

http://newsroom.toyota.co.jp/en/detail/9889509

quote:

1. New Vehicles Zero CO2 Emissions Challenge

Reducing global average new-vehicle CO2 emissions by 90 percent by 2050 (compared to Toyota's 2010 global average)

Achieving annual global sales of over 30,000 fuel cell vehicles around or after 2020. In Japan, selling at least 1,000 fuel cell vehicles per month (well in excess of 10,000 per year)

Beginning sales of fuel cell buses in small numbers by early 2017, focusing on Tokyo; preparing to sell over 100 fuel cell buses ahead of the 2020 Summer Olympics and Paralympics in Tokyo

Achieving sales of 1.5 million hybrids annually and 15 million hybrids cumulatively by 2020

Reducing average CO2 emissions from new vehicles by more than 22 percent by 2020 (compared to Toyota's 2010 global average)

2. Life Cycle Zero CO2 Emissions Challenge
Completely eliminating all CO2 emissions, including materials, parts and manufacturing, from the vehicle lifecycle

3. Plant Zero CO2 Emissions Challenge

Zero CO2 emissions at all plants by 2050

Cutting production process-related CO2 emissions per vehicle from new plants and new production lines to roughly half of 2001 levels by 2020, and roughly a third by 2030; using renewable energy and hydrogen-based production methods to completely eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050

Developing manufacturing technologies that use hydrogen as a power source, and beginning testing on FCV production lines by around 2020

Using wind power produced on-site at our Tahara Plant by around 2020

Ensuring that production process-related CO2 emissions per vehicle manufactured at our new plant in Mexico are at least 40 percent lower than our global 2001 levels when the plant goes online in 2019

Using entirely locally-produced renewable electricity at our plants in Brazil from 2015

Tanreall
Apr 27, 2004

Did I mention I was gay for pirate ducks?

~SMcD
In other news it's hot out there!

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

quote:

Reducing global average new-vehicle CO2 emissions by 90 percent by 2050 (compared to Toyota's 2010 global average)

Is that number with or without a defeat-device?

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

enraged_camel posted:

Is that number with or without a defeat-device?

Its mostly based on them pushing hybrids and hydrogen vehicles, you only really need defeat-devices for diesels.


There's a reason I posted about Toyota's new declaration, VW's just doesn't seem as weighty.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

When should I expect the Arctic Ice cap to completely melt for the first time?

SKELETONS
May 8, 2014

Grouchio posted:

When should I expect the Arctic Ice cap to completely melt for the first time?

Summer of 2013

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
Diesel still has a slim chance if they can actually be bothered to get the emissions controls working properly, but the long term is the Internal Combustion Engine has to change or die.

Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge seems to have been replaced by the Truly Tenacious Trough, so this winter might not be troubled by polar vortexes.

DesperateDan
Dec 10, 2005

Where's my cow?

Is that my cow?

No it isn't, but it still tramples my bloody lavender.
Just finishing up "This changes everything" by Naomi Klein, and can strongly recommend it to all- though I must warn people that while I was looking for something more upbeat/solutions based, and the book certainly has elements of that, the message is still largely "are we hosed? yeah, probably".


CommieGIR posted:

Diesel still has a slim chance if they can actually be bothered to get the emissions controls working properly, but the long term is the Internal Combustion Engine has to change or die.

The sound, smell and general "feel" of car engines is going to be something I really miss when it's gone, even though all the evidence can tell me its helping to kill the environment :(

SlimGoodbody
Oct 20, 2003

DesperateDan posted:

The sound, smell and general "feel" of car engines is going to be something I really miss when it's gone, even though all the evidence can tell me its helping to kill the environment :(

A smart company will make sure to find a way to include those elements to some extent in skeuomorphic design considerations until they can be phased out gracefully.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

SlimGoodbody posted:

A smart company will make sure to find a way to include those elements to some extent in skeuomorphic design considerations until they can be phased out gracefully.

Electric cars already include artificial noise because they were inadvertently sneaking up on people.

SlimGoodbody
Oct 20, 2003

computer parts posted:

Electric cars already include artificial noise because they were inadvertently sneaking up on people.

I hadn't even thought of that. Are there electric motorcycles? I hope they make noise, cause otherwise they'd be even more of a deathtrap.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

computer parts posted:

Electric cars already include artificial noise because they were inadvertently sneaking up on people.

And BMW uses the car speakers to make fake engine noises.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004

SlimGoodbody posted:

I hadn't even thought of that. Are there electric motorcycles? I hope they make noise, cause otherwise they'd be even more of a deathtrap.

Overall I suspect, too tired to research, that the rate of electric motorcycle on pedestrian accidents is closer to that of bikes than that of cars or heavy vehicles. I suspect that being silent is a huge advantage for the rider, and just reinforces the need for such devices on electric cars. At least until we get automatic anti-crash breaking.

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Banana Man
Oct 2, 2015

mm time 2 gargle piss and shit
Hi I'm just now learning about this, are we as a people prepared for the changes?

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