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Regina Case was interviewed for KCRW's The Treatment. http://www.kcrw.com/news-culture/shows/the-business/brazilian-director-anna-muylaert-finds-success-then-sexism One thing that kept popping up around the world was people avoiding her to talk to her producer. That hasn't happened in the States though, she can't even get a meeting here.
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Sep 29, 2015 07:00
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So uh, apparently yesterday the supreme electoral college accepted a case to investigate and nullify the last presidential election due to irregularities and the government had its budget rejected by the TCU due to overspending last year so there are two venues for Impeachment gaining traction. This won't end well.
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Oct 9, 2015 15:53
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The best (actually worst) part is that one of the reasons the head of the TCU is mad with the government is that the federal police found out he was involved in a scheme worth millions of dollars to get the debt of one of the Globo subsidiaries annulled. Just like with the election funding, where Dilma's accounts may be rejected because she received money from companies involved in the Petrobras scandal, which would make her ineligible to run again, while Aecio, who actually received more money from these companies, can do anything he likes. Of course, to get the impeachment process under way, the opposition will need to get the approval of Eduardo Cunha. Eduarco Cunha, who the Swiss government has just confirmed has several accounts there (including a copy of his passport used to open the accounts). Cunha, of course, enjoys the full support of PSDB, while PT and PC do B deputies try to get a process against him started.
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Oct 9, 2015 16:01
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Not exactly political, but right now Hurricane Patricia is in Mexico. Most of my relatives are in Guadalajara and Colima and thankfully they seem to be doing alright, although apparently a couple of places in Colima are starting to flood. But I have a cousin who lives in Manzanillo and no one has managed to contact her in hours. I can't help but be super worried right now. All I can do is hope she's okay 
Siselmo fucked around with this message at 05:54 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 05:51
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Relax, the hurricane already vanished.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:15
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Let me be the first one to say: "lol arg elections." That's all you should know.
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Oct 26, 2015 02:04
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Future Days posted:Let me be the first one to say: "lol arg elections." Oh lol another Peronist. At least if it was Cru you'd get a party that is open about being lovely.
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Oct 26, 2015 02:25
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Crowsbeak posted:Oh lol another Peronist. At least if it was Cru you'd get a party that is open about being lovely. I know people irl who are hardcore Kirchnerists who hate the fact that they have to vote Menem's protegé to prevent a "Menem lookalike" (See those quotation marks?) from becoming president. latamelections.txt
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Oct 26, 2015 02:38
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Future Days posted:I know people irl who are hardcore Kirchnerists who hate the fact that they have to vote Menem's protegé to prevent a "Menem lookalike" (See those quotation marks?) from becoming president. To be fair Macri is much scarier looking than Menem.
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Oct 26, 2015 02:52
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Badger of Basra posted:To be fair Macri is much scarier looking than Menem.  yikes (for some reason that pic reminds me of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEaYZhHY6rU)
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Oct 26, 2015 02:57
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This is exactly the picture I was thinking of.
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Oct 26, 2015 02:58
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Second round time. 
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Oct 26, 2015 04:08
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And Macri is ahead 
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Oct 26, 2015 04:17
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Am I the only one who's more afraid of Scioli than Macri?  I guess I really don't like the idea of 4 extra years on top of 12 more by the same party, especially due to the rampant corruption. That said, I fully expect Macri to also be a corrupt president because  Argentina.
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Oct 26, 2015 05:49
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Badger of Basra posted:And Macri is ahead Good lord
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Oct 26, 2015 05:49
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Azran posted:Am I the only one who's more afraid of Scioli than Macri? ill never understand why the assholes in fpv didnt put randazzo for pres since he seemed to do his job fairly well
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Oct 26, 2015 05:51
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macri is no doubtedly gonna suck, and scioli aint no better, but at least its not massa with his epic plan to annihilate drugs and drug dealers by going into villas and loving poo poo up
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Oct 26, 2015 05:52
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Maria Rodriguez, a street trader who voted before setting up her stall in the San Telmo market, said she had chosen Massa because the other main candidates were cynical opportunists. Lmao.
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Oct 26, 2015 06:04
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The thing to rescue from this night is that a candidate who openly stated that his favourite politician was Trotsky got over 3% of the vote  the time is now comrades
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Oct 26, 2015 07:29
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Ah well, gotta vote again in 4 weeks. Man, this is actually historic and in that sense it's pretty cool but goddamn I'm scared
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Oct 26, 2015 09:21
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4 weeks? goddamn that's a long time in between rounds.
Kurtofan fucked around with this message at 10:33 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 09:26
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Yeah, I thought the same thing. It's going to be interesting to see where the parties that got left out and their supporters place their votes.
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Oct 26, 2015 09:45
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Hate to interrupt Argentina chat, but here's a reminder of how terrible the Brazilian right wing is. In the national college entrance exams this weekend, the theme of the essay was violence against women in society. Which is apparently an example of how PT is indoctrinating kids and using its power to promote feminist and communist causes.
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Oct 26, 2015 15:08
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joepinetree posted:Hate to interrupt Argentina chat, but here's a reminder of how terrible the Brazilian right wing is. In the national college entrance exams this weekend, the theme of the essay was violence against women in society. Which is apparently an example of how PT is indoctrinating kids and using its power to promote feminist and communist causes. I used to think this stuff was funny but now that the people saying this poo poo are winning it's just depressing.
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Oct 26, 2015 15:22
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joepinetree posted:Hate to interrupt Argentina chat, but here's a reminder of how terrible the Brazilian right wing is. In the national college entrance exams this weekend, the theme of the essay was violence against women in society. Which is apparently an example of how PT is indoctrinating kids and using its power to promote feminist and communist causes. Yeah, eventually when a change in power happens, it is probably going to get rather ugly. That said, I don't know what Brazil could really do at this point since it was so reliant on a commodity boom.
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Oct 26, 2015 15:22
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, eventually when a change in power happens, it is probably going to get rather ugly. That said, I don't know what Brazil could really do at this point since it was so reliant on a commodity boom. Brazil wasn't reliant on a commodity boom. What drove Brazilian growth was government investment and cash transfer programs, which were possible because of cheap domestic and international credit. The participation of exports on the Brazilian GDP actually declined during the boom period.  From http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0101-33002014000100003&script=sci_arttext With the corruption scandals freezing or substantially curtailing public investment, with interest rates rising to fight off growing inflation and with the government having to balance the budget during the recession, the crisis is likely to be deep and long. But it has little to do with the international commodities market.
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Oct 26, 2015 16:01
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joepinetree posted:Hate to interrupt Argentina chat, but here's a reminder of how terrible the Brazilian right wing is. In the national college entrance exams this weekend, the theme of the essay was violence against women in society. Which is apparently an example of how PT is indoctrinating kids and using its power to promote feminist and communist causes. To be fair, most PT militants I know were celebrating this almost how it was Dilma herself who choose the theme.
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Oct 26, 2015 16:10
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Azran posted:Yeah, I thought the same thing. It's going to be interesting to see where the parties that got left out and their supporters place their votes. itll be a hell of a lot more interesting to see just how much poo poo the parties are gonna fling at each other
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Oct 26, 2015 16:11
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joepinetree posted:Brazil wasn't reliant on a commodity boom. What drove Brazilian growth was government investment and cash transfer programs, which were possible because of cheap domestic and international credit. The participation of exports on the Brazilian GDP actually declined during the boom period. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/balance-of-trade http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/current-account-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/exports What I am getting from trading economics looks like a export boom that peaked in the mid-late 2000s since has slowly died as Brazil progressively accrued a trade deficit and largely took gdp growth with it. While exports grew until 2010 they more or less stagnated until 2014 then started dropping. Brazil conducts quite a bit of trade with China and if you look at the way the Chinese economy has been going, there is a close correlation. Also fluctuations in commodity prices hit Brazil as much as any other country. Brazilian exports as of 2013 are still mostly agricultural products, mining, and petrochemicals. There are some manufactured goods but they are still only a relatively small portion. It very well be that that cheap credit and spending helped further growth as well, but if you look at the trend, while exports started to decline as a percentage of gdp, growth also took a hit. Until 2008, the Brazilian economy was booming, then it took a big drop afterward then growth settled to 2% in 2012 and has only dropped further from there. There was a big bounce in 2010 but it is quite obvious it wasn't going to last. Ultimately, I think Brazil was actually pretty reliant on export growth during the 2000s for the Lula boom, and while there was a modest recovery after the 2008 crisis, Brazilian growth has been a steady downward slope since that point. Ultimately, low demand for commodities and austerity are both working together to crush Brazil. The problem is that while its deficit isn't bad on its face, it has real difficult accessing credit markets due to its credit rating which leaves either bilateral credit or "lenders of last resort." Further public spending may help stabilize the situation but the issue is paying for it, and it doesn't seem like the government wants to touch its reserves. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 16:17
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Pastor Everaldo/Bolsonaro 2022 
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Oct 26, 2015 16:26
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Ardennes posted:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/balance-of-trade Those graphs are balance of trade, current account to gdp and exports in dollars. None of those speak to what drove Brazilian growth, since none of those account for how much of GDP is based on exports. If you don't read Portuguese, the main headers in the table I posted are consumption, investment, exports, imports and GDP. Within each of the main headers, the first column is growth and the second is share of GDP. As you can see, during the two main periods of economic growth (2004-2008, 2010-2011), exports dropped as a percentage of GDP (from 16.4% of GDP in 2005 to 11.9% in 2011). As such, it is clear that it is not the driver behind Brazilian economic growth. The two main drivers, as you can see, are domestic consumption and, more importantly, domestic investment (which grew in double digits several years). Brazil isn't like its most of the region. It is not an export oriented economy. It is not like Venezuela, Chile or Uruguay, which have all historically had exports correspond to 25% of GDP or more.
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Oct 26, 2015 16:53
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joepinetree posted:Those graphs are balance of trade, current account to gdp and exports in dollars. None of those speak to what drove Brazilian growth, since none of those account for how much of GDP is based on exports. If you don't read Portuguese, the main headers in the table I posted are consumption, investment, exports, imports and GDP. Within each of the main headers, the first column is growth and the second is share of GDP. Those graphs provide evidence of Brazilian trade patterns versus growth during the period, and in that sense we can see parallels. It is true that investment was quite strong in 2007 to 2011 versus exports, however what does Brazilian growth look like during this period? It is high in 2003-2008 then you have a recession and then in 2010-2011 you had a recovery. That said, the export boom precedes the investment, and cheap credit may have kept growth going briefly but it wouldn't last very long in fact of a global recession. The problem is during the main period of growth from 2004-2008, exports were actually fairly high as a percentage of GDP compared to where they were in 2000. While they declined in the fact of investment, it doesn't also explain why Brazilian growth from 2011 has been steadily dropping. In a sense there is a combination of factors, the revaluation of the real stabilized the country, this was followed by a commodity boom and as the credit situation in Brazil improved, so did growth. However, investment likely began to peter out after 2010-2011. I can't really accept looking at Brazil's stagnating trade since 2011 as a non-issue here especially since growth has been dropping since that period. In a sense of what I am saying, I just don't think Brazilian growth was sustainable after exports started stagnating, and that investment that was happening wasn't necessary unconnected with Brazil's exports. I mean what happens after 2010, is it simply just austerity that causes Brazil's gdp to start dropping? Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 20:20
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Exports actually declined during the boom, as production reoriented itseld to the domestic market. Exports are always important as they are by definition an important part of gdp. But Brazilian economic growth was not primarily related to exports, much less comodity exports, since Brazil has a far more diversified export portfolio than its neighbors. This is straightforward enough, since the period of growth coincided with the crisis in Brazil major trade partner (the US). The literature on this is pretty clear, and if you'd like i can try to find articles in English.
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Oct 26, 2015 22:48
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joepinetree posted:Exports actually declined during the boom, as production reoriented itseld to the domestic market. Exports are always important as they are by definition an important part of gdp. But Brazilian economic growth was not primarily related to exports, much less comodity exports, since Brazil has a far more diversified export portfolio than its neighbors. This is straightforward enough, since the period of growth coincided with the crisis in Brazil major trade partner (the US). The literature on this is pretty clear, and if you'd like i can try to find articles in English. Brazilian goon here. I would be interested in articles discussing this matter so I would be grateful if you could link at least one or two here. It could be in Portuguese. I've seen a lot of new right wing people claiming that Bolsa Familia had nothing to do with Brazilian prosperity during this period and the improvement of life for poor Brazilians was just a reflection of the commodity boom, thus having nothing to do with PT and everything was owed to the invisible hand of market. It would be nice to have a different view point.
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Oct 26, 2015 23:07
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joepinetree posted:Exports actually declined during the boom, as production reoriented itseld to the domestic market. Exports are always important as they are by definition an important part of gdp. But Brazilian economic growth was not primarily related to exports, much less comodity exports, since Brazil has a far more diversified export portfolio than its neighbors. This is straightforward enough, since the period of growth coincided with the crisis in Brazil major trade partner (the US). The literature on this is pretty clear, and if you'd like i can try to find articles in English. Most of the data I have seen shows exports booming from 2000 to 2010. Also, according to most trade data I have seen commodities are certainly a big part of Brazilian trade, while admittedly they are quite diversified. In this sense I am treating petrochemicals/agricultural goods/minerals as commodities. Also, the US economy was fairly strong from 2000-2008. I can see the politics here, that the Brazilian right wants to use exports to attack Lula and diminished the social gains under Lula. However, to be honest, I don't know if the social programs under Lula really actually large enough to have that much of an economic impact on a nation wide scale. They obviously have a social impact and probably a localized economic impact to poor communities, but I don't know if they certainly would be enough to actually change GDP. Although I guess there was a considerable stimulus in Brazil in 2009-2010.
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Oct 26, 2015 23:17
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Kanthulhu posted:Brazilian goon here. I would be interested in articles discussing this matter so I would be grateful if you could link at least one or two here. It could be in Portuguese. I already linked one above, but here are some others https://nodocuments.files.wordpress...ao-de-renda.pdf http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572011000400001 http://eesp.fgv.br/sites/eesp.fgv.br/files/file/1%20Painel_Oreiro%20texto.pdf http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/45140/1/601803434.pdf Ardennes posted:Most of the data I have seen shows exports booming from 2000 to 2010. Also, according to most trade data I have seen commodities are certainly a big part of Brazilian trade, while admittedly they are quite diversified. In this sense I am treating petrochemicals/agricultural goods/minerals as commodities. Also, the US economy was fairly strong from 2000-2008. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/exports-of-goods-and-services-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html Click on 10 years. Exports lagged, not led economic growth. This isn't some small country in the middle of nowhere. There has been a substantial amount of stuff written about economic growth in Brazil. We don't have to try to guess based on looking at graphs. Growth in exports was a part of it, but it was not the main cause. A country where exports are 12% of GDP does not grow 7% in a year because of exports. And for the record, once again, I did not say that it was just the social programs. I said that it was increased domestic consumption and investment, of which the government had a significant part.
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Oct 27, 2015 00:52
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joepinetree posted:
Ultimately except in 2010, Brazil really wasn't growing at 7% a year after 2008, that is the central issue. From 2004-2008 Brazil more or less boomed but that was a period of rising exports. The question is why Brazilian growth has steadily dropped from 2011, and exports has to be a part of answer. Also, everything is relative, even if Brazilian exports are a modest part of the economy, it is their relative rise and fall versus themselves which is the issue. The government may have had a hand in public investment and that helped to certain degrees, especially in 2010 but there are rather broad trends that aren't well explained by investment alone, which is why exports is something that needs to be looked at. That said, I think we are at a bit of a impasse since we have two very different opinions about the same data. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Oct 27, 2015 |
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Oct 27, 2015 01:04
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Scioli wants to debate now. Fuckin' hell...
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Oct 27, 2015 13:18
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Hahahaha apparently there's a law project on Congress by Eduardo Cunha that makes advising a woman how to commit an abortion a crime that can get you 4-8 years in jail, 5-10 if you are a public health worker and even more if the woman that commits the abortion is underage. Except Abortion in Brazil is legal in case of rape, health risk for the mother and anencephaly of the fetus. So a health worker that gives a pill to a 16 year old girl who was raped is likely to get more time in jail than the loving rapist.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:54
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Yggdrassil posted:Scioli wants to debate now. Fuckin' hell... Welcome to 2 rounds elections, enjoy the ride* *enjoyment not guaranteed edit: oh he had refused to debate before ahaha. Kurtofan fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Oct 27, 2015 |
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Oct 27, 2015 17:58
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