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Labradoodle posted:Personally, I don't have a lot of sympathy for the guy. I can understand being scared for his family, but let's be honest here, if the government assigned him to the Lopez case his hands probably weren't clean to begin with. I'll bet he has some nice assets in the US and he was scared of sanctions due to his involvement. There's a group in the United States called "Exiled Venezuelan Political Prisoners" or something like that who released a statement today calling on the US government to deny Nieves a visa for this reason. They say that Nieves has been involved in human rights violations (political persecution) for a while and that coming forward now doesn't suddenly absolve him of wrongdoing. Over the weekend, Eladio Aponte Aponte (the former Supreme Court justice who claimed to have received orders from Chavez to fake charges against Manuel Rosales in 2008) wrote and signed what looks like an affidavit in Costa Rica stating as much. Part of it reads: quote:The President of the Tribunal [the Supreme Court] ordered us to do this saying that it was an order from President Hugo Chavez, who had told her, “Manuel Rosales must go to prison. This scum must be in prison, not governing a state. He can’t be free, and you have to assume that responsibility”. The evidence is overwhelming that there is no such thing as judicial independence in Venezuela. The courts and the legal system are just an extension of the President's office.
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Oct 27, 2015 00:23
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Phlegmish posted:It's the first time I've seen that. You know a poll is biased, you publish it anyway, and then you mention that the poll is biased. At least they're honest about their dishonesty. They're should be some honesty about the polls. Polling doesn't really work in totalitarian regimes where giving the wrong answer can get you killed. "I don't know you, but I know where you live, so who do you want to vote for, the president for life or some random rear end in a top hat." Amazingly, a lot of people don't give honest answers to pollsters.
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Oct 27, 2015 07:46
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Yesterday, shoppers blocked the road outside the Bicentenario supermarket in Palo Verde, Caracas to protest the lack of food. La Patilla had a journalist there who recorded some of the citizens' opinions on the crisis. The video can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHrvayOTeQc I've translated it below to the best of my ability. It was tricky because a lot of people were yelling over each other, and it was hard to make out some of what was said. However, I think it's worth having a listen (or a read, if you don't speak Spanish), because it'll give you a feel for what some of the people on the ground are thinking as they're living through this. quote:Woman in Purple: The people are hungry! We’re hungry! We’re lied to every day. There’s no chicken today. When can we buy it? On Tuesday! The people are hungry! There’s no food! [people chant, “The people are hungry!”] We’ve been here since two, three, four in the morning, and only now they tell us there’s no food. It’s not fair.
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Oct 29, 2015 01:44
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I know very little about economics, but why hasn't the government implemented a rationing system to try and deal with at least some of this?
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Oct 29, 2015 02:22
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Kavak posted:I know very little about economics, but why hasn't the government implemented a rationing system to try and deal with at least some of this? They have. There are at least two official rationing systems active at the moment, and "unofficial" ones that we can lump together for the purposes of this post. The official rationing systems are 1) shopping by ID number, and 2) rationing via fingerprint scanners. The first system allows you to shop for groceries at state-owned supermarkets only on certain days of the week depending on the last digit of your national ID number. For example, if your ID ends in a number between 1-5, you can only shop on Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays. IDs ending in 6-0 can shop on only Tuesday, Thursdays and Sundays. On Fridays, everyone can shop. (The actual division of days/ID numbers isn't quite like this, but you get the picture. The second system requires that you scan your fingerprint at the cash register. Everyone is allowed X amount of Y good per week. If you scan your fingerprint and you're on your third bag of corn flour for the week, but you're only allowed two, the sale is blocked. What I've called "unofficial" rationing systems are those that have not been instituted by the government, but rather by individual establishments. Lots of private businesses will have signs informing customers that they're limited to only X amount of toilet paper per shopper, etc. Rationing doesn't solve the underlying problem, which is that Venezuela isn't importing enough to feed itself. Venezuela produces very little, which is a separate but related issue. All the rationing in the world isn't going to stop the scarcity if there's nothing making it to the supermarkets in the first place.
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Oct 29, 2015 02:38
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Chuck Boone posted:"yo soy una persona impertinencia" ["I am an impertencia(?) person". I’m not sure what this means] wiregrind fucked around with this message at 07:20 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 07:17
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Chuck Boone posted:Venezuela produces very little, which is a separate but related issue. This is so sad considering Venezuela has inmense natural riches. We really put all the eggs in the oil basket, but we could have a very decent mining industry for instance, or a Livestock industry. Not to mention tourism: Venezuela is gorgeous outside its cities. Another "rationing system" works on loyalty to the costumers. People in the local corner stores (called abastos, or bodegas) tend to save a bit of their products for the neighbors. There's a new resentment building up against resellers (bachaqueros) and 'outsiders' from the neighborhood that get to the local markets early in the morning and leave them empty. For instance my mom used to buy around 60% of her food in the local bodega and they save sugar and coffee for her.
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Oct 29, 2015 09:17
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Kavak posted:I know very little about economics, but why hasn't the government implemented a rationing system to try and deal with at least some of this? On top of what Chuck commented, there's also the fact that with the National Assembly elections a little over a month away they naturally don't want to rock the boat too much. Establishing a new system that could be perceived as rationing right now would piss off more people and they can't afford to lose a single vote as is. Plus, there's been lots of "rationing" systems implemented so far and none of them have succeeded in achieving anything except fostering outrage. Chuck mentioned "unofficial" rationing systems, an example of this would be my local farmacy not selling diapers unless you show up with a birth certificate (thereby proving you're not just buying them for reselling purposes) or birth control pills without a prescription. Both of those are real examples. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 14:55
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I was reading in FT that Venezuela is precipitously low and may run out of funds by Q1 2016. Losing the upcoming election might be desirable right now.
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Nov 1, 2015 17:16
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JohnGalt posted:I was reading in FT that Venezuela is precipitously low and may run out of funds by Q1 2016. Losing the upcoming election might be desirable right now. Yes, Venezuela is cutting it close. They've got debt commitments worth $15.6 billion due before the end of next year, but only $15.8 billion in foreign reserves. It had $43 billion in 2008. It does seem like losing the National Assembly in December might serve the PSUV, because if things go (further) south next year they might be able to blame the opposition for it. But then again, they blame the opposition for the way things are today, so it might not make a big difference. Also, Maduro has been making these not-so-veiled threats recently that the PSUV needs to win the election "by any means" and that the PSUV would never "hand over the revolution" if they lost in December. If the opposition does win, it could force Maduro to double-down on his executive powers/influence in order to make it seem like he, as El Hijo de Chavez, is still in full control of the Comandante's legacy. He must be looking forward to the 2018 presidential election. Any sign of weakness might give other players (Diosdado Cabello) ideas.
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Nov 1, 2015 23:58
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Mozi posted:Nobody has posted about this? It looks like he's getting paid off to say this stuff http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11622 quote:Caracas, October 27th 2015 (venezuelanalysis.com) - Venezuela’s Attorney General, Luisa Ortega Diaz, has responded to a video released by Franklin Nieves last week, in which the former public prosecutor accuses the national public prosecution of mounting a “show trial” against jailed right-wing politician Leopoldo Lopez.
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Nov 2, 2015 00:10
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Nieves has been talking a lot over the past few days, granting interviews to several media outlets over the last few days. Just today El Nacional posted an interview with him, some of which I've translated below:quote:What exactly was it that you considered to be the last straw that made you leave the country and speak out against the Leopoldo Lopez trial? Of course, the Public Ministry and Diosdado Cabello have come out swinging, calling Nieves every name under the sun and suggesting that he's been paid off by the usual suspects. There's (surprise) no evidence of that. Here's Diosdado Cabello presenting evidence the Nieves was paid $850,000 to leave the country: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgVpu0Fdv-o quote:This gentleman had the opportunity to say these things in Venezuela. I got a letter from someone, they said $850,000 are in an account that this gentleman has (...) This gentleman — what a thing! He was a prosecutor, but he didn’t say anything. He went to the United States, and now he’s a hero of the opposition (…) everyone who goes to the United States to gossip about Venezuela is a hero of the opposition (…) and just so you can see how the institutions work here, he [Nieves] was never persecuted even though he belongs to the opposition. A sheet of paper you say came from "someone" who says that "$850,000 are in an account that this gentleman has". This is evidence that Nieves got paid off. Got it. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 00:30 on Nov 2, 2015 |
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Nov 2, 2015 00:26
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Chuck Boone posted:A sheet of paper you say came from "someone" who says that "$850,000 are in an account that this gentleman has". This is evidence that Nieves got paid off. Got it. Except the right wing opposition is also saying he got paid off, the whole thing smells fishy either way.
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Nov 2, 2015 00:36
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Borneo Jimmy posted:Except the right wing opposition is also saying he got paid off, the whole thing smells fishy either way. Who is the "right-wing opposition"? Everyone who doesn't support the PSUV? Am I the "right-wing opposition"? Do you honestly believe that "the right-wing opposition" is a monolithic group? Do you think Maria Corina Machado, Alvaro Uribe, the Spanish government, the CIA et al. got together and all agreed that "something smells fishy about this Nieves guy"? U.S.-based Venezuelan groups are against Nieves because they see him as a human rights violator who doesn't deserve asylum, which is a completely different discussion independent of whether or not he's telling the truth. Don't you wonder why the government doesn't attack the merit of his statements, but rather attacks him directly? What exactly "smells fishy" about this, other than the fact that it undermines the validity of a reality you refuse to question?
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Nov 2, 2015 00:45
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Chuck Boone posted:What exactly "smells fishy" about this, other than the fact that it undermines the validity of a reality you refuse to question? The fact that he was completely fine with the whole trial and it's proceedings, then once the U.S. cries about their asset going to jail, now all of sudden he's in Miami and calling for sanctions on the Venezuelan people, kind of a quick turn around don't you think?
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Nov 2, 2015 00:55
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Borneo Jimmy posted:... kind of a quick turn around don't you think? No, not at all. Nieves said he was not "completely fine" with the trial and its proceedings, and he's speaking out against it, isn't he? He had good reason to go along with it at the time (fear of incarceration, fear for his/his family's safety, etc.) I won't address the rest of your post because it's absurd. Read his testimony. Sleep on it. Think on it. Make up your own mind about this, Jimmy. Don't let Venezuelanalysis tell you what to think, buddy.
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Nov 2, 2015 01:02
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Chuck Boone posted:No, not at all. Nieves said he was not "completely fine" with the trial and its proceedings, and he's speaking out against it, isn't he? He had good reason to go along with it at the time (fear of incarceration, fear for his/his family's safety, etc.) I won't address the rest of your post because it's absurd. Given that human rights organizations in Venezuela and representatives of the victims of right wing violence have applauded the verdict in the Lopez trial, I've already made up my mind, thanks. I think that holding wealthy demagogues responsible for their violent, racist rhetoric is something that people should applaud. Given the deaths he's responsible for, Lopez got off light. Borneo Jimmy fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Nov 2, 2015 |
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Nov 2, 2015 01:10
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He's either the most half-assed troll in forums history or the dumbest poster, just ignore his posts. Victims of Right Wing Violence lmao
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Nov 2, 2015 01:31
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YodaTFK posted:Victims of Right Wing Violence lmao http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Guarimba-Victims-Spread-Message-of-Nonviolence-in-Ecuador-20150630-0030.html quote:German Carrero was delivering medical supplies when a bomb detonated and ripped his hand off in 2014. Ever since right-wing protesters set off the bomb during the violent protests that took place in Venezuela last year, he has been determined to spread a message of nonviolence around the world, coming to Ecuador with other victims of violence to present his case.
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Nov 2, 2015 01:39
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Oh the violence is certainly real. It's the right wing part most people would question. Well, except you.
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Nov 2, 2015 01:47
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YodaTFK posted:Oh the violence is certainly real. It's the right wing part most people would question. Well, except you. So are you saying these victim's groups are lying?
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Nov 2, 2015 01:58
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Ever notice how there's no "Victims of State Violence" groups? Well, there might be - but they're also the "right wing opposition" and are by definition wrong on everything. Here's a video of US-bought right-winger Marvinia Jimenez getting beaten by the People's Guard during a protest in La Isabelica in February 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkkIL5AFztw Here's another video made from stills taken from another angle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45eRjmeQ10s As of February of this year the case against her attackers had made exactly 0% progress.
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Nov 2, 2015 02:09
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Chuck Boone posted:Ever notice how there's no "Victims of State Violence" groups? Well it's a small minority compared to the hundreds of Chavistas assassinated by right wing paramilitaries.
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Nov 2, 2015 02:19
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So how bad is the impending humanitarian crisis going to be if the government cannot import food?
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Nov 2, 2015 02:29
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It's arguably fairly bad already. The head of the Colegio de Nutricionistas de Venezuela [College of Venezuelan Nutritionists] said earlier this week that the full effects of the scarcity the country is suffering from today have yet to be seen, since children growing up in the country today are likely going to be particularly affected by malnutrition. Remember that it's the most basic necessities - milk, eggs, flour, etc. - that are the most scarce. The most obvious effect of this is that people shift from eating what they should to eating what they can find. The million dollar question is, "Will there come a day when nothing comes into the country?". The body responsible for assignment foreign currency (CENCOEX) has handed out 60% fewer dollars this year than they did during the same period in 2014. While CENCOEX handed out $79.2 million per day last year to private businesses (importers included), this year they're averaging $43.9 million per day. Given the fact that the government's answer to these problems is to do the things that are causing them even more, it's not looking pretty at all.
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Nov 2, 2015 02:48
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JohnGalt posted:So how bad is the impending humanitarian crisis going to be if the government cannot import food? The evil capitalist U.S. will give them food, just like we kept the Soviet population from starving for decades. There won't be mass starvation but hopefully there will be a popular uprising resulting in the death of all communists.
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Nov 2, 2015 02:52
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http://m.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151029/defense-minister-confirms-that-venezuela-will-buy-12-sukhoi-aircraft
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Nov 2, 2015 03:22
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Kavak posted:I know very little about economics, but why hasn't the government implemented a rationing system to try and deal with at least some of this? Basically Venezuela is in a crisis of its own making and there is absolutely no way out that is acceptable to the PSUV. First they used price controls to drive down the price of staples. All well and good, but there are consequences. They've driven the price down far enough that some local suppliers were unable to produce profitably at that price. They went out of business. In an open market this would raise the price and reduce the demand, and eventually things would balance out. However, because of the price ceiling, there is more demand than supply. To meet this demand, when oil prices were high the government imported what it needed and paid for it out of oil revenue. This works as long as you have the money, but once you don't, or start to have to seriously prioritize you're going to start having shortages. Then they've doubled down, accusing local producers of hoarding or price fixing and forcing producers to produce and sell at a loss. This is bankrupting those companies and they're going out of business, contributing to more shortages. This also has had the side effect of companies cannibalizing capital investment to try and keep the doors open, contributing to a long term decline in productivity, and making it even harder to produce at the dictated prices. Essentially the long term effect of the price controls is to gut local production and make Venezuela dependent of imports it not longer can afford. They can't ration effectively because there is nothing to ration. Effectively the only way out of this mess is to drop the price controls entirely. It sucks for the poor people, and provisions should be made to help them out, but until the market is pulled back into equilibrium shortages will continue. Of course there is a second option, full nationalization of all means of production and rigid rationing. It can work for a while, but I wouldn't trust the PSUV to actually accomplish it, or manage the economy after.
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Nov 2, 2015 03:29
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And subsidizing the money lost with each price-controlled product isn't an option anymore because there's no money to begin with. How did Venezuela mismanage their way into having to import so much of their food and what's stopping them from climbing out of it (Besides the whole lack of money)?
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Nov 2, 2015 03:48
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Kavak posted:And subsidizing the money lost with each price-controlled product isn't an option anymore because there's no money to begin with. Venezuela mismanaged it's way into such a mess because for a long period of time, people who prioritize ideology over objective reality have held power. You can see their mindset by examining the posts of Borneo Jimmy.
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Nov 2, 2015 03:54
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What is the endgame in Venezuela? Reading through the thread, it seems like any problems will be blamed on somebody else (foreign or local). Since they are unable to do anything but yet maintain their stranglehold on the country, what will happen as things worsen?
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Nov 2, 2015 03:59
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Kavak posted:How did Venezuela mismanage their way into having to import so much of their food and what's stopping them from climbing out of it (Besides the whole lack of money)? The short of it is that Chavez started expropriating businesses in the early 2000s for pretty much any reason he wanted. This included businesses that produced and imported food stuffs. He also expropriated privately-owned land. Here's a video of Chavez expropriating stuff in 2010: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOjvJAfIMSI quote:Chavez: [Pointing] What's that building over there? That's an old theater, right? But that's in government hands, right? And that building? As you can imagine, all of that expropriated productive land/business fell into the hands of the very same monumentally inept and corrupt people running the country today, which is part of the reason why Venezuela lost her ability to produce. Polar is the last remnant of a productive Venezuela, which is why people get nervous whenever it looks like the government is going to move against it or its head, Lorenzo Mendoza.
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Nov 2, 2015 04:09
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Logikv9 posted:What is the endgame in Venezuela? Reading through the thread, it seems like any problems will be blamed on somebody else (foreign or local). Since they are unable to do anything but yet maintain their stranglehold on the country, what will happen as things worsen? There is no endgame that ends well for Venezuela. Either the price controls need to go or the government needs to nationalize all food production and somehow run them far more efficiently then they've ever been run before.
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Nov 2, 2015 04:14
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they will face a hard currency crisis, that is to say, they will run out of foreign-currency-denominated state savings (foreign reserves) with which to buy stuff. Then, well, it's hard to say. Violent reaction to the withdrawal of the oil subsidies is what introduced Chavism to begin with, and the oil subsidies occupies a huge share of the budget. It's important to appreciate what running down foreign reserves means, here. It means: if the account is to abruptly balance, someone has to get less imports. "Let's nationalize everything" is magical thinking. You cannot nationalize stuff that you want to buy from another country's jurisdiction. I continue to underscore that mass expropriation by a regime enmeshed in a violent socialist, anti-imperialist politics is not automatically linked to dysfunction. You can find it in, e.g., the economic policy record of Chiang Kai-Shek in Taiwan. Expropriation is a one-off thing. Attempting to sustain a deeply divergent exchange rate is not. If Latin America goes in circles, it is because it oscillates between expropriations and counter-expropriations, in a deep conviction by alternating sets of victors that this is what matters for long-term prosperity, when it is not. ronya fucked around with this message at 04:26 on Nov 2, 2015 |
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Nov 2, 2015 04:18
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Related to all this, once you account for inflation, isn't oil pretty close to all time lows, or at least all time since oil went from "trash liquid that bubbles out in weird places" to "major natural resource"? And hasn't stayed at near all time low levels for a sustained period? All else being equal, and considering their population, Venezuela was still going to be in quite the squeeze at this point regardless.
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Nov 2, 2015 04:50
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ronya posted:
Would you, perhaps, say that it is sometimes appropriate to unleash Chang?
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Nov 2, 2015 05:03
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Gorau posted:There is no endgame that ends well for Venezuela. Either the price controls need to go or the government needs to nationalize all food production and somehow run them far more efficiently then they've ever been run before. ronya posted:they will face a hard currency crisis, that is to say, they will run out of foreign-currency-denominated state savings (foreign reserves) with which to buy stuff. Then, well, it's hard to say. Violent reaction to the withdrawal of the oil subsidies is what introduced Chavism to begin with, and the oil subsidies occupies a huge share of the budget. So the country is well and thoroughly hosed, then. How far do you believe the ruling party is willing to go to hold onto power as the country descends into madness? Is some sort of violent uprising/re-revolution possible, or will the country just crumble as nobody is capable or willing to fix it?
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Nov 2, 2015 05:39
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Logikv9 posted:So the country is well and thoroughly hosed, then. How far do you believe the ruling party is willing to go to hold onto power as the country descends into madness? Is some sort of violent uprising/re-revolution possible, or will the country just crumble as nobody is capable or willing to fix it? Granted, this opinion is coming from an outsider, but it feels like it's probably the latter. My understanding based on the fiscal and political situation is that there's basically no way out that anyone will accept. Even if the PSUV was out, there's no politically acceptable solution to solve Venezuela's money problems without basically relegating the poor to be as bad off as they were before Chavez, and, surprise, surprise, it's probably going to be very difficult to push anything like that through. I expect that either Venezuela turns into an authoritarian hellhole where either the current elites stay in power at the expense of the populous, or government basically collapses entirely under the Scylla and Charybdis that are popular political demands and an inability to get sufficient hard currency to meet any of those demands in an equitable manner, effectively turning Venezuela into a failed state.
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Nov 2, 2015 05:56
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Venezuela is well on it's way to becoming the second North Korea.
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Nov 2, 2015 06:01
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-Troika- posted:Venezuela is well on it's way to becoming the second North Korea. I've made the comparison a few times. Obviously it isn't nowhere as bad, and Maduro basically ruined the cult of Chavismo by being extremely inept and uncharismatic, but there are some very clear similarities in how they try to present themselves and shift the blame on to foreign evil enemies. Thankfully, Venezuela is already part of the information age and free speech through the internet is really hard to control. I doubt we will ever reach a state of craziness as that of N. Korea, not that our situation isn't extremely dire. Had Chavez appointed a charismatic leader as his successor, I would've been a thousand times more worried. But I doubt he allowed people like that in his inner circle, that's possible future competition!
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Nov 2, 2015 09:26
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