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GOP strategists are worried about Ben Carson because they remember what happened the last time a mentally enfeebled black man stood between a Clinton and electoral victory.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:19
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I don't think there's a zero-chance of Rubio winning, but I would not put his odds very high because of the demographic and turnout advantages that Democrats have in presidential elections. Rubio would possibly win Florida, but I don't see him being particularly able to mobilize support in states that Romney lost Obama otherwise. The problem for Rubio (and really any Republican) is that their margin of error is extremely slim. He basically has to win 5 out of 6 of NV, FL, VA, CO, OH, and IA. I think that if he's running against Hillary Clinton he will have a much easier time mobilizing support in some of the redder purple states. I could easily see him winning all of those states listed except for Florida and Ohio, which would make for a pretty close election. It's definitely an uphill battle for the Republicans in the Presidential race anyway you cut it, though. GalacticAcid posted:GOP strategists are worried about Ben Carson because they remember what happened the last time a mentally enfeebled black man stood between a Clinton and electoral victory. 
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Nov 13, 2015 18:28
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Maarek posted:I think that if he's running against Hillary Clinton he will have a much easier time mobilizing support in some of the redder purple states. I could easily see him winning all of those states listed except for Florida and Ohio, which would make for a pretty close election. It's definitely an uphill battle for the Republicans in the Presidential race anyway you cut it, though. He has to win Ohio and Florida.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:29
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Joementum posted:Quote of the morning, “There’s new speech talk — it’s like,safe space, or something like that? I mean, come on." ~ Jeb! This quote, the "hell yeah I'd murder lil Hitler," and the fantasy football poo poo...Jeb!'s brand is "sensible tough-talking suburban dad."
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Nov 13, 2015 18:31
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zoux posted:He has to win Ohio and Florida. He can win without Ohio.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:32
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Maarek posted:I think that if he's running against Hillary Clinton he will have a much easier time mobilizing support in some of the redder purple states. I could easily see him winning all of those states listed except for Florida and Ohio, which would make for a pretty close election. It's definitely an uphill battle for the Republicans in the Presidential race anyway you cut it, though. I don't see how right wingers could hate her more than they hated Obama in 12. I think the opposite problem though, that Hillary will have turnout problems.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:33
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Shageletic posted:According to California's Legislative Analysis Office, California would need to bridge a revenue gap of 46 billion dollars to institute single payer in the state. Of course, this was generated in 2008, before the ACA. And even Vermont's analysis factored in the federal government pitching in and continuing to handle medicare and medicaid, but that did not still cover their own revenue gap. If California ever manages to slay Prop 13 and related property tax restrictions, they could probably cover that multiple times over. 
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Nov 13, 2015 18:35
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greatn posted:I don't see how right wingers could hate her more than they hated Obama in 12. I think the opposite problem though, that Hillary will have turnout problems. I don't think they will hate her more than Obama, just that they will like Rubio more than Romney.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:36
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Milk Malk posted:Negro communities whats going on here
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Nov 13, 2015 18:43
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Joementum posted:Quote of the morning, “There’s new speech talk — it’s like,safe space, or something like that? I mean, come on." ~ Jeb! Now someone ask him how he feels about religious freedom laws and the right for bakeries to expel gay customers rather than serve them
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Nov 13, 2015 18:44
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Fried Chicken posted:Now someone ask him how he feels about religious freedom laws and the right for bakeries to expel gay customers rather than serve them That sounds like the exact kind of liberty this country was founded on.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:45
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Maarek posted:I think that if he's running against Hillary Clinton he will have a much easier time mobilizing support in some of the redder purple states. I could easily see him winning all of those states listed except for Florida and Ohio, which would make for a pretty close election. It's definitely an uphill battle for the Republicans in the Presidential race anyway you cut it, though. I think you're vastly overstating him and giving him the states that would actually be harder for him to win. Florida would/will be much easier for him to win because of the Cuban population. NV and CO are both strong states for Clinton, and Iowa is prolly the only one of that list that I think he has any shot to win. I think Ohio will go D. Maarek posted:I don't think they will hate her more than Obama, just that they will like Rubio more than Romney. Republican "apathy" isn't why Romney lost. He lost because he lost Hispanics and Women by huge margins. Which, guess what, so will Rubio everywhere but *maybe* Florida.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:46
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Crain posted:So Howard University's "deadline" of 10am given in the threat on 4chan has come and gone, however there's still a large police presence on campus. I missed it, what was with 4chan and Howard?
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Nov 13, 2015 18:46
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Maarek posted:He can win without Ohio. He would not. Of those states. It would be a 269-269 tie, which, lol would be hilarious. And to go one further, Fla is only in play if it's Rubio. None of the rest of that field is going to get any better Hispanic vote in the swing states than Mittens.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:47
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Fried Chicken posted:I missed it, what was with 4chan and Howard? Someone posted an anonymous threat that they dropped out of Mizzou and were driving to Howard to shoot every [upstanding African-American] they saw today
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Nov 13, 2015 18:51
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Here's the spectrum chart from 2012. If trends stay the same, Rubio would need FL, OH, VA, and CO to win, though it's certainly possible that the balance changes. For instance, Rubio might have an easier time winning in Nevada.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:51
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I don't think it's fair that Colorado gets 93 electoral votes.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:52
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Cheesus posted:The Kentucky elections are barely a week behind us we still think that there's no way, zero-chance, never-in-a-million-years that the American people won't vote for Trump, Carson, or a half-empty box of cereal over Clinton/Sanders? Correct, because Kentucky is not representative of America at large.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:55
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Joementum posted:Here's the spectrum chart from 2012. If trends stay the same, Rubio would need FL, OH, VA, and CO to win, though it's certainly possible that the balance changes. For instance, Rubio might have an easier time winning in Nevada. I do not know what about Rubio would make OH/VA/CO closer. Really only one of those would have the "youth" quotient that we often talk about, but I think that'd be negated enough.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:55
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Fried Chicken posted:I missed it, what was with 4chan and Howard? Luigi Thirty posted:Someone posted an anonymous threat that they dropped out of Mizzou and were driving to Howard to shoot every [upstanding African-American] they saw today Specifically the poster said they were going to wait till 10 am and then start hunting down black people.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:55
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I do not know what about Rubio would make OH/VA/CO closer. Really only one of those would have the "youth" quotient that we often talk about, but I think that'd be negated enough. Nothing about the particular candidate is going to change those outcomes, which will be determined by the current state of the economy, perception of the success of the Obama administration, and the effectiveness of the campaign organizations.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:56
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I love living in CA. Our 55 EV's completely wipes out the Midwest. 
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Nov 13, 2015 18:57
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Crain posted:Specifically the poster said they were going to wait till 10 am and then start hunting down black people. It's kind of absurd that one person posting anything has to be treated as 100% serious and real every time, but I dunno how you get around it, because the first time a threat is ignored turns out to be real...
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Nov 13, 2015 18:57
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zoux posted:I don't think it's fair that Colorado gets 93 electoral votes. EDIT: When using charts from earlier elections don't forget to adjust for
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Nov 13, 2015 18:57
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A Winner is Jew posted:I love living in CA. How about those ballot measures ahaha
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Nov 13, 2015 18:58
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A Winner is Jew posted:I love living in CA. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio have more EVs than California. And they're not all of the Midwest either.
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Nov 13, 2015 18:59
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Ulf posted:Given the past few years I think we've earned it. As far as I'm concerned Colorado should be in charge of the whole country. Legal weed already, and universal health care soon, I'd be planning my relocation right now if my career options weren't completely randomized (yay tenure-track academia).
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Nov 13, 2015 19:01
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mdemone posted:As far as I'm concerned Colorado should be in charge of the whole country. Legal weed already, and universal health care soon, I'd be planning my relocation right now if my career options weren't completely randomized (yay tenure-track academia). It's pretty good for white people.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:02
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mdemone posted:As far as I'm concerned Colorado should be in charge of the whole country. Legal weed already, and universal health care soon, I'd be planning my relocation right now if my career options weren't completely randomized (yay tenure-track academia). Counterpoint: remember when Colorado ousted a perfectly decent Senator because he dared to push for modest gun-control reform. Also if universal healthcare couldn't pass in Vermont of all places, it ain't gonna pass in Colorado.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:03
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mdemone posted:As far as I'm concerned Colorado should be in charge of the whole country. Legal weed already, and universal health care soon, I'd be planning my relocation right now if my career options weren't completely randomized (yay tenure-track academia). I agree that Colorado, with the headquarters of the KKK, should be in charge of the country.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:04
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Joementum posted:Nothing about the particular candidate is going to change those outcomes, which will be determined by the current state of the economy, perception of the success of the Obama administration, and the effectiveness of the campaign organizations. Thanks a lot, Debbie Downer.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:04
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PupsOfWar posted:Also if universal healthcare couldn't pass in Vermont of all places, it ain't gonna pass in Colorado. Well, small point of correction here: single payer healthcare did pass in Vermont and the Governor did (very narrowly) win re-election on it, but he decided that the plan was too costly to implement and shelved it. That decision cost him the support of his left flank and he announced he would not seek re-election shortly there after.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:06
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Luigi Thirty posted:I agree that Colorado, with the headquarters of the KKK, should be in charge of the country. The KKK has nothing against the green just the brown.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:06
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zoux posted:It's kind of absurd that one person posting anything has to be treated as 100% serious and real every time, but I dunno how you get around it, because the first time a threat is ignored turns out to be real... Now, granted, they didn't just go and close everything and fill the college with SWAT members with full auto M60's and air support. They just increased police presence. But I get your point.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:08
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Luigi Thirty posted:I agree that Colorado, with the headquarters of the KKK, should be in charge of the country. Are you thinking of Focus on the Family?
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Nov 13, 2015 19:09
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PupsOfWar posted:Counterpoint: remember when Colorado ousted a perfectly decent Senator because he dared to push for modest gun-control reform. Colorado at large has a moderate, slightly liberal bent. There are some hosed up awful racist shithole backwaters though, and one of them also happens to host the Military Acadamy for the country's Air Force 
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Nov 13, 2015 19:09
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Greatbacon posted:Colorado at large has a moderate, slightly liberal bent. There are some hosed up awful racist shithole backwaters though, and one of them also happens to host the Military Acadamy for the country's Air Force Colorado Springs *shudders*
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Nov 13, 2015 19:12
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Crain posted:Now, granted, they didn't just go and close everything and fill the college with SWAT members with full auto M60's and air support. They just increased police presence. A better example would be how they cancelled the online harassment panels at SXSW because of internet threats of violence. If you can shut down anything just by posting "ima shoot it up" on 4chan, then how can you ever do anything?
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Nov 13, 2015 19:16
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Greatbacon posted:Colorado at large has a moderate, slightly liberal bent. There are some hosed up awful racist shithole backwaters though, and one of them also happens to host the Military Acadamy for the country's Air Force There are certainly more conservative votes concentrated in the state's various redneck counties than in Colorado Springs alone. Colorado also has a ton of libertarian-leaning white yuppies along the Front Range tech corridor who love weed, but can't be counted upon to vote for leftist proposals (like universal healthcare) that would actually require their tax-dollars to be allocated toward helping hispanics and poor white people. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Nov 13, 2015 |
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Nov 13, 2015 19:16
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Joementum posted:Here's the spectrum chart from 2012. If trends stay the same, Rubio would need FL, OH, VA, and CO to win, though it's certainly possible that the balance changes. For instance, Rubio might have an easier time winning in Nevada. Polling indicates PA is trending red this time. It will be interesting to see if that bares out, or it will be another artifact of poor underpolling like some many other cases lately
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Nov 13, 2015 19:20
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