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My Imaginary GF posted:What are they gonna attack him on? Probably all the embarrassing things in his long life.
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Nov 16, 2015 00:59
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NewMars posted:A wing and a prayer. Sounds like 9/11 Jewel Repetition posted:Probably all the embarrassing things in his long life. You say it like those are the negative aspects of his candidacy
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Nov 16, 2015 01:02
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My Imaginary GF posted:You say it like those are the negative aspects of his candidacy They could be if they become part of the narrative.
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Nov 16, 2015 01:04
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I saw a Ted Cruz bumper sticker this week. First bumper sticker I've seen that isn't Carson, Trump, or Sanders.
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Nov 16, 2015 01:07
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this current state of affairs, where trump is a conservative standard bearer, has only existed for what, six months max? we've got twice that much time between now and the general election. also, all of this is happening within the republican thought bubble. will trumpmania expand its sphere of activity to people who don't consider themselves conservative? will gop anti-trump money be able to oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 01:08
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Patter Song posted:I saw a Ted Cruz bumper sticker this week. First bumper sticker I've seen that isn't Carson, Trump, or Sanders. poo poo, I saw a Hillary one last week. That was a real shocker.
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Nov 16, 2015 01:11
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oystertoadfish posted:this current state of affairs, where trump is a conservative standard bearer, has only existed for what, six months max? we've got twice that much time between now and the general election. also, all of this is happening within the republican thought bubble. will trumpmania expand its sphere of activity to people who don't consider themselves conservative? will gop anti-trump money be able to All that matters is Trump stays on top until the convention. He's not going to win the general.
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Nov 16, 2015 01:18
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Jewel Repetition posted:All that matters is Trump stays on top until the convention. He's not going to win the general. i dont think so either but im trying not to get all assumptiony tbh i think his negative coattails might even give the democrats a two-year rental on both houses of congress. but im an optimist  the pessimistic side is that if we get another oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 01:24 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 01:22
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The modernity and madness of 2015 has my head spinning. At the start of this cycle I followed conventional wisdom and figured Jeb was a lock. Jeb rolled out so large that he seemed unbeatable. Then Trump came along and turned the coronation of Jeb Bush into an absolute poo poo show. Few things to consider moving forward: - Will TV ad buys even work? We(in general) consume media differently in 2015 than we did in even 2011. Ratings are REALLY low across the board, and when people do watch TV they have tools which allow them to watch their favorite programs ad free. So far this cycle Jeb and his pacs have already spent millions in TV ads and his numbers have dropped. Club for Growth dropped a million in ads against Trump in Iowa and his numbers fell a few points, but was it the ads or the rise of Gentle Ben? With that said I still think radio ads are a good bet, and Ted Cruz is all over that market. - Trump and Carson are two candidates who GET social media. Trump on twitter, and Carson on facebook are revolutionizing the media game. Social media feels more authentic than an ad, and tends to bond people to their candidate of choice. - The idea that "people aren't paying attention this far out' is ridiculous. The right is very engaged this cycle, just look at the historical debate numbers. What makes those high numbers even more impressive is that they come at a time when TV ratings are pathetically low. - Polls have been fucky lately, and many in the GOPe fear Trump's numbers could be under-reported much like in Kentucky with Matt Bevin. All the polls showed Bevin fairly even with his competitor, but he won in a landslide. I think enthusiasm is the x-factor. So far Trump and Carson seem to be the only ones really getting people fired up. - The general feeling in the base is one of revolt, anger, and desperation. They were fooled by McCain, then fooled again by Romney. Many in the base feel this is do or die for America, and unless they chose a fighter they will lose the White House, and the country. - Establishment support could be a bad thing in this age of revolt. We're not seeing a lot of endorsements, right now, and there are rumblings that Rubio has to watch out if he becomes the establishment's guy. Montasque fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 01:26
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To prove that the Facebook thing from yesterday wasn't just a fluke: 
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Nov 16, 2015 01:27
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Jewel Repetition posted:To prove that the Facebook thing from yesterday wasn't just a fluke: Some youtube 'southerner' got mentioned on the local newspaper website, as writing a controversial facebook post requiring that if you stand with paris you admit Obama is wrong to say Iran's values are like America's, and that radical islamists must be wiped from the face of the earth. ~57k likes as of now.
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Nov 16, 2015 01:31
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trump might be good enough to pivot off of this poo poo in the general election campaign but if he can't then i don't think he'll win. most americans, i think, are too disconnected from politics to bother either hating or liking obama that much also when did 'bobbie helms' decide not to spell his name bobby wtf is that poo poo
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Nov 16, 2015 01:31
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Montasque posted:The modernity and madness of 2015 has my head spinning. At the start of this cycle I followed conventional wisdom and figured Jeb was a lock. Jeb rolled out so large that he seemed unbeatable. Then Trump came along and turned the coronation of Jeb Bush into an absolute poo poo show. It feels so good to read plausible arguments for a Trump nomination.
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Nov 16, 2015 01:31
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Related, Paul Krugman is wondering the same thing:quote:The Regime Change Problem in American Politics The sentences that I bolded are similar to the thoughts I have had in the last month or so. It reminded me of how in September, Shagalectic posted an article about Trump's chances that had this quote: quote:"If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong,” Larry Sabato, head of the center for politics at the University of Virginia, wrote last week. Even if Rubio gets the nomination, or Jeb gets it with a comeback, the way things are "supposed to" happen (And I still am inclined to think will happen, due to historical precedent), I still feel as though there's something off about this year. It would be to the benefit of political science as a field if we could get a better answer about why the clowns are so durable this year, and not just be satisfied with "social media", "outsider outrage", or a changing media environment. I want something specific, that can be used in the future to make predictions. William Bear fucked around with this message at 02:13 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 02:06
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oystertoadfish posted:
Probably because he's a woman?
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Nov 16, 2015 02:07
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Jewel Repetition posted:All that matters is Trump stays on top until the convention. He's not going to win the general. Hillary can't beat a Trump running from the left.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:09
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My Imaginary GF posted:Hillary can't beat a Trump running from the left. How many Trumps are in the race?
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Nov 16, 2015 02:11
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memy posted:How many Trumps are in the race? Trump is a quantum candidate
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Nov 16, 2015 02:12
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Jewel Repetition posted:Probably all the embarrassing things in his long life. ...embarrassing Trump? This is a contradiction of terms, friend.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:13
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Immortan posted:...embarrassing Trump? This is a contradiction of terms, friend. After all, how do you shame the shameless?
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Nov 16, 2015 02:14
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political science is built on some assumptions that have been true for x elections in a row. statistically that has no effect on the likelihood of the next election conforming to the hypotheses,* but emotionally it makes us all more confident - so in some sense you have a growing disconnect between statistical likelihood and human confidence that keeps building up until reality introduces a breaking point. it might be this election - it still might not! but i think it probably is. and there's just no answer; if you don't have a sample that's representative of your next election you can't build statistical arguments, and the whole problem here is that our current situation has little precedent in the sample so political scientists, or should i say poolitical scientists, are hosed. also paul krugman is an arrogant jackass albeit a smart one, but i think his predeliction toward respecting people with the sorts of academic credentials he so greatly respects when masturbating to his own resume and whose names he can drop makes him nothing more than a parrotter of consensus outside of his area of expertise. which makes him a very good new york times columnist edit: *this is kinda bullshit tbh especially just going 'statistically,' which is basically the same as 'actually,' oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 02:21 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 02:17
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Nouvelle Vague posted:Probably because he's a woman? i got owned
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Nov 16, 2015 02:17
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So what's the republican plan for overcoming the fact that the next POTUS will probably be nominating 2 new supreme court justices (one of whom will surely be replacing RBG)? It doesn't even have to be about abortions. Hillary's attack ads can be about basic healthcare, contraceptives, and mammograms, and everybody will get the message loud and clear. William Bear posted:It would be to the benefit of political science as a field if we could get a better answer about why the clowns are so durable this year, and not just be satisfied with "social media", "outsider outrage", or a changing media environment. I want something specific. Trump is not a clown. He has spent a decade or more seriously committed to the fundraising arm of the RNC's political machine in Florida and Ohio (and probably more key states, I don't have specific knowledge outside of those two). A bunch of feckless posh dilettantes call him a clown because they have to keep the money flowing from their establishment billionaire donors. This isn't a joke to Trump - he's laid the groundwork and he's going for it. The longer the RNC refuses to take him seriously, the worse off they will be.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:20
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I'm sure an enterprising political scientist will come along and invent a model that better accounts for the resilience of clowns. The financial crisis wasn't a real crisis for economics, and this won't be a crisis for political science.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:26
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Do It Once Right posted:So what's the republican plan for overcoming the fact that the next POTUS will probably be nominating 2 new supreme court justices (one of whom will surely be replacing RBG)? We already have 5 GOP nominees on the court and SURPRISE abortion, contraception, etc. are all still legal. It's the Democrat appointees who are a threat to civil liberties and our constitutional rights. They were lock-step in Heller and McDonald, and one GOP appointee being replaced by a Democrat president is all they need to trash the bill of rights.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:29
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Boosted_C5 posted:We already have 5 GOP nominees on the court and SURPRISE abortion, contraception, etc. are all still legal.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:33
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Boosted_C5 posted:We already have 5 GOP nominees on the court and SURPRISE abortion, contraception, etc. are all still legal. Boosted absorbed Smoothrich! Together, they are Majin Boostrich 2.5!
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Nov 16, 2015 02:33
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William Bear posted:Even if Rubio gets the nomination, or Jeb gets it with a comeback, the way things are "supposed to" happen (And I still am inclined to think will happen, due to historical precedent), I still feel as though there's something off about this year. It would be to the benefit of political science as a field if we could get a better answer about why the clowns are so durable this year, and not just be satisfied with "social media", "outsider outrage", or a changing media environment. I want something specific, that can be used in the future to make predictions. This whole thing with Trump isn't exactly a ~~new phenomenon~~ anymore than Tea Party folks primarying Republicans is. It's just not a frequent phenomenon. There is a mismatch between what the Republican party elites believe and what the Republican base believes. Until those two groups realign, I imagine we'll continue to see outsiders of "clowns" gain traction if they can appeal to what the base believes in. E: I agree with the prior post about how these people aren't clowns. They're not behaving the way traditional party elites would, and it's because that's not what they are.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:46
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Jewel Repetition posted:All that matters is Trump stays on top until the convention. He's not going to win the general. 
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Nov 16, 2015 02:55
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LuciferMorningstar posted:This whole thing with Trump isn't exactly a ~~new phenomenon~~ anymore than Tea Party folks primarying Republicans is. It's just not a frequent phenomenon. There is a mismatch between what the Republican party elites believe and what the Republican base believes. Until those two groups realign, I imagine we'll continue to see outsiders of "clowns" gain traction if they can appeal to what the base believes in. I guess i just dont why people LOVE trump so much. most of the Conservative parts of my family hate his guts and are scared he will get nominated and win. is it just because he is loud dick head who says "real" things. I mean i think politicaly cruz and carson would be worse, but trump would be pretty loving bad.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:58
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Vegetable posted:I'm sure an enterprising political scientist will come along and invent a model that better accounts for the resilience of clowns. The financial crisis wasn't a real crisis for economics, and this won't be a crisis for political science. It depends to a large extent on the type of political scientist one is thinking of. The article mentions more quantitative political science, and such practitioners are generally more flexible because they care about what the data says, rather than having some underlying qualitative political science philosophy they believe in. The article mentions Andrew Gelman for example (who is arguably the greatest applied statistician in the world; he just happens to have an interest in political science), who will simply shrug and let his statistical models update themselves (he does a lot of his work using bayesian nonparametric models, which basically means the forms of the model is learned from data, rather than imposing much if any structure to the model manually). I was talking with him the week before last about his political science models, and I certainly didn't get the impression that he's particularly concerned about the state of the field.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:58
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Vegetable posted:I'm sure an enterprising political scientist
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Nov 16, 2015 02:58
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Shakugan posted:It depends to a large extent on the type of political scientist one is thinking of. The article mentions more quantitative political science, and such practitioners are generally more flexible because they care about what the data says, rather than having some underlying qualitative political science philosophy they believe in. The article mentions Andrew Gelman for example (who is arguably the greatest applied statistician in the world; he just happens to have an interest in political science), who will simply shrug and let his statistical models update themselves (he does a lot of his work using bayesian nonparametric models, which basically means the forms of the model is learned from data, rather than imposing much if any structure to the model manually). I was talking with him the week before last about his political science models, and I certainly didn't get the impression that he's particularly concerned about the state of the field. But seriously ,
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Nov 16, 2015 03:00
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Nov 16, 2015 03:03
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I guess i just dont why people LOVE trump so much. most of the Conservative parts of my family hate his guts and are scared he will get nominated and win. is it just because he is loud dick head who says "real" things. I mean i think politicaly cruz and carson would be worse, but trump would be pretty loving bad. Presumably because the people who support him fall into one of two categories: 1. They're at least modestly politically informed and have some political opinions. They believe that Trump best represents their position. 2. They're uninformed and have heard a lot of people talking about Trump. Rather than admit that they don't know anything, they pick Trump is surveys.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:05
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^^and when it comes to, specifically, the results of polling, i think 2) right there is a big, big, big, big part of it. that's the part that in theory might fade away as we get to the 'real' campaign where more than 15% of the country is paying attention. but there were similar arguments put forward to suggest that trump's polling lead couldn't possibly last more than a month or two. or three. or four. or five. or so onDapper_Swindler posted:most of the Conservative parts of my family hate his guts and are scared he will get nominated and win. i don't know your family so i won't go too far out on this rotting unsound limb but i will say that the trump supporters seem to buy into a sort of conservative civil war, where the more establishment-flavored types who have directed policy are now republicans in name only and betrayers of the ideal who have to be defeated by the real conservatives. like the tea party idea but taken a step or five further again i don't know your family but maybe they're more comfortable with the conservative status quo than the trump supporter type of conservative?
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Nov 16, 2015 03:07
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oystertoadfish posted:^^and when it comes to, specifically, the results of polling, i think 2) right there is a big, big, big, big part of it. that's the part that in theory might fade away as we get to the 'real' campaign where more than 15% of the country is paying attention. but there were similar arguments put forward to suggest that trump's polling lead couldn't possibly last more than a month or two. or three. or four. or five. or so on Research going back to Converse in the 1960s pretty clearly demonstrates that a substantial number of Americans are politically uninformed. There's a real lack of consistency across time in the responses people give to surveys, and people tend to prefer to give an answer that they don't understand over admitting that they don't understand. This is why Joementum keeps mentioning how Trump's polling is tied to media coverage. If he stops getting media coverage or the tide turns against him, all the politically uninformed folks are going to go elsewhere, depending on what information filters through to them.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:12
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So what I'm hearing is that Trump is our version of the Mule. Just in time for HBO's Foundation series!
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Nov 16, 2015 03:13
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one disconnect that always amuses me is how political punditry, which makes its bread and butter off of readership that's vastly better informed than most american voters, takes data from surveys of voters and creates narratives that pretend the polls' respondents have the knowledge and assumptions and biases of the readership they're trying to make money off of so you get these stories about how ben carson is going to fall in the polls because of some specific interview response he gave, or how trump is being mean to someone who all of We Serious People know is just untouchable, when the data points in the polls are people who mostly don't even know the name of america's vice president
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Nov 16, 2015 03:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I guess i just dont why people LOVE trump so much. most of the Conservative parts of my family hate his guts and are scared he will get nominated and win. is it just because he is loud dick head who says "real" things. I mean i think politicaly cruz and carson would be worse, but trump would be pretty loving bad. I know a few dum dums who repeat stuff they read in emails (did you hear? McDonalds puts meal worms in their hamburgers as filler!) like it's fact and are uninformed about the world in general and they love Trump because he "tells it like it is" and isn't "another crooked politician". Human Tornada fucked around with this message at 06:24 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 03:21
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