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Justin Bieber has endorsed Donald Trump and instructed his American "Beliebers" to vote for him.
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Nov 20, 2015 14:45
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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-trump-retakes-lead-gop-race-cruz-makes-gains-n466651 New NBC Poll NBC Nov 15-17th Trump: 28% (+2) Carson: 18% (-8) Cruz: 18% (+8) Rubio: 11%(+2) Bush: 4% (-1) Christie: 3% Fiorina: 3% (-1) (Last Month) NBC Oct 27-29 Trump: 26% Carson: 26% Cruz: 10% Rubio: 9% Bush: 5% Fiorina: 4%
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Nov 20, 2015 14:53
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Peachstapler posted:Justin Bieber has endorsed Donald Trump and instructed his American "Beliebers" to vote for him. Wrap it up, everyoneelseailures.
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Nov 20, 2015 14:55
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Nate Silver choosing Trump's yuge and luxurious hill as the one he wants to die on: @NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?
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Nov 20, 2015 14:57
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Prof. Lurker posted:Nate Silver choosing Trump's yuge and luxurious hill as the one he wants to die on: I've got a door in a wall for you, Silver.
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Nov 20, 2015 14:59
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Prof. Lurker posted:Nate Silver choosing Trump's yuge and luxurious hill as the one he wants to die on: No, but, you see... Boosted_C5 posted:LOL Donald Trump is literally going to be POTUS. Checkmate, liberals. 
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Nov 20, 2015 15:02
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Peachstapler posted:Justin Bieber has endorsed Donald Trump and instructed his American "Beliebers" to vote for him. Make Canada Great Again!
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Nov 20, 2015 15:03
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Donald Trump, the fever dream candidate. You don't get to wake up until the fever breaks, guys. E: America, the fever dream. I doubt we're going to actually see anything resembling a real move toward totalitarianism until stagnation and gridlock are so overwhelming that extremists punching through the cruft are seen as a good thing by a larger segment of the general population. I'm presently hoping Mr. Trump will serve as more of a blanket thrown over a fevered person, aiding the fever to break before the point of collapse. SnakePlissken fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Nov 20, 2015 |
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Nov 20, 2015 15:04
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Prof. Lurker posted:Nate Silver choosing Trump's yuge and luxurious hill as the one he wants to die on: It's a good question, but it should also be asked why any poll number would be impressive, considering that primary polling at this stage of the race* hasn't predicted the nominee since 2000. (Excluding the Republican primary in 2004 and the Democratic primary in 2012 when the incumbents were effectively unopposed.)
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Nov 20, 2015 15:07
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Epic High Five posted:At what point does his campaign manager start sneaking up behind him with a roll of duct tape to cover his mouth with? Here we are Dr. Carson. Good luck! 
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Nov 20, 2015 15:08
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Joementum posted:It's a good question, but it should also be asked why any poll number would be impressive, considering that primary polling at this stage of the race* hasn't predicted the nominee since 2000. drat, a sample of 4 whole primaries!
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Nov 20, 2015 15:10
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Mike the TV posted:Here we are Dr. Carson. Good luck! 9/11 Part 2 Simulator looking good. Maybe the good doctor has 100's of hours logged in microsoft flight sim?
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Nov 20, 2015 15:10
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So the 1st place candidate says we might need to do unthinkable things when he is president, proposes a Muslim database and considers having special IDS for the immigrants Carson compared immigrants to dogs Cruz says we should only allow Christians into the U.S. Please tell me that this rhetoric will push the GOP into a defeat in November
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Nov 20, 2015 15:11
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:So the 1st place candidate says we might need to do unthinkable things when he is president, proposes a Muslim database and considers having special IDS for the immigrants hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Nov 20, 2015 15:14
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nachos posted:drat, a sample of 4 whole primaries! Well, let's extend it then and count the modern primaries in which polling at this stage did predict the nominee, excluding incumbents. 2000 - Republican primary 2000 - Democratic primary 1996 - Republican primary 1980 - Republican primary We could argue about 1976, which Ford (a semi-incumbent) led at this stage, but didn't cleanly wrap up, even at the convention. Not a robust track record for primary polling.
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Nov 20, 2015 15:18
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Joementum posted:Well, let's extend it then and count the modern primaries in which polling at this stage did predict the nominee, excluding incumbents. I think my point stands in that there is not enough of a sample to definitely say one way or another that primary polls matter.
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Nov 20, 2015 15:25
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nachos posted:I think my point stands in that there is not enough of a sample to definitely say one way or another that primary polls matter. OK, but since polls are the only evidence on offer that Trump could win, (your belief) that there's not enough evidence to say they matter would suggest he's not doing as well as reported.
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Nov 20, 2015 15:29
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Joementum posted:OK, but since polls are the only evidence on offer that Trump could win, (your belief) that there's not enough evidence to say they matter would suggest he's not doing as well as reported. Are they the only evidence? He also has the potential to self-fund to a more robust degree than any campaign can fund. He hasn't tapped his financial resources yet but has the potential to have a very well-financed campaign.
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Nov 20, 2015 15:37
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Mister Macys posted:I can't quite make it out... "Mexicanes Eunt Domus" 2016
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Nov 20, 2015 15:44
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Patter Song posted:Are they the only evidence? He also has the potential to self-fund to a more robust degree than any campaign can fund. He hasn't tapped his financial resources yet but has the potential to have a very well-financed campaign. At this point, Trump has enough of a chance at becoming our next president that he would probably be more than willing to drop a cool hundred mil without a 2nd thought, and the fact that he has barely spent anything yet makes him feel pretty good about it. If Trump wins the nomination, I bet he will come out of the primary having spent less than any presidential nominee in the past several elections.
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Nov 20, 2015 15:49
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basically every argument that the silverites had used to argue why jeb had it locked actually applies to trump, which is hilarious
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Nov 20, 2015 15:57
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Forums Terrorist posted:basically every argument that the silverites had used to argue why jeb had it locked actually applies to trump, which is hilarious Can you link me to the 538 article that said Jeb! had it locked? I'm having trouble finding it.
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Nov 20, 2015 15:59
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Joementum is right. Trump isn't going to win. Cruz is
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Nov 20, 2015 16:03
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I can't believe trump said he was going to create a database for Muslims
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Nov 20, 2015 16:10
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I think Nate Silver's point is pretty valid but for reasons he would dismiss since he seems currently divorced from reality and instead stuck in orthodoxy. Despite all that media attention Trump can't really crack over 30%. Yes it's a crowded field, but most of that crowded field is polling within the margin of zero. The reason this is devastating for Trump is that this time IS different - people ARE paying attention. And what they're seeing they're not too impressed with.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:12
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Zelder posted:I can't believe trump said he was going to create a database for Muslims Seriously. The Xmen played out that story line years ago
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Nov 20, 2015 16:14
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Zelder posted:I can't believe trump said he was going to create a database for Muslims He'll finally win over the Tea Party faithful by putting Obama on it first
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Nov 20, 2015 16:17
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Why would Nate Silver dismissively mention that only 25% of America identifies as Republican? It doesn't seem relevant to discussion of Donald Trump's position in the Republican primaries, in which Republicans tend to vote.Good Citizen posted:Seriously. The Xmen played out that story line years ago Donald Trump is a bit like Iron Man, in that they're both billionaires and assholes. That makes Bernie Sanders Captain America. 
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Nov 20, 2015 16:21
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William Bear posted:Why would Nate Silver dismissively mention that only 25% of America identifies as Republican? It doesn't seem relevant to discussion of Donald Trump's position in the Republican primaries, in which Republicans tend to vote. Nate Silver is really bitter about Donald Trump kicking over his predictive model sandcastles.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:25
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Trump's support is rising, he has broken 30% in several polls now, Silver needs a reality check.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:30
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I look forward to Trump announcing that he will hunt and kill a Syrian refugee in his next campaign stop
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Nov 20, 2015 16:30
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Well, the problem is that Nate Silver wouldn't apply that same logic to the other candidates. Saying something like "Hillary Clinton only has about 60% of the only about 30% of Americans that identify as Democrats" would be just as true and just as misleading.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:31
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Montasque posted:Nate Silver is really bitter about Donald Trump kicking over his predictive model sandcastles. Huh, I hadn't realized Nate Silver had built a model to predict mid-November polling results. Weird.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:31
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Sir Kodiak posted:Huh, I hadn't realized Nate Silver had built a model to predict mid-November polling results. Weird. Silver's model had Jeb and Walker as favorites. Walker dumped out and Jeb is a zombie candidate.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:35
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Sir Kodiak posted:Huh, I hadn't realized Nate Silver had built a model to predict mid-November polling results. Weird. He didn't, but for him and everyone else on his site to say Jeb! is still TWICE as likely as Trump at this point (this was in their most recent update on the field) is ridiculous and simply asking for failure.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:35
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Zelder posted:I can't believe trump said he was going to create a database for Muslims  Spoiler: It happens here
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Nov 20, 2015 16:36
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TheLemonOfIchabod posted:He didn't, but for him and everyone else on his site to say Jeb! is still TWICE as likely as Trump at this point (this was in their most recent update on the field) is ridiculous and simply asking for failure. According to Silver, Scott Walker still has a better chance of getting the nomination than Donald Trump.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:40
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"I will eat the heart of this Syrian child, to send a message to Isis!" - Trump, to uproarious applause
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Nov 20, 2015 16:50
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Montasque posted:Scott Walker still has a better chance of getting the nomination than Donald Trump. Which is true. In the extremely low chance of a brokered convention, Walker is a reasonable compromise candidate, making his chance of being the nominee non-zero.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:52
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TheLemonOfIchabod posted:He didn't, but for him and everyone else on his site to say McCain is still TWICE as likely as Giuliani at this point (this was in their most recent update on the field) is ridiculous and simply asking for failure.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:55
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