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Joementum posted:If you look at polls of "adults" he's at 33.9%. If you look at polls of registered voters, he's at 29.3%. If you look at polls of likely voters, he's at 26.7%. Trump appeals directly to people who are emotional children so I'm not sure filtering by adults is going to make a difference!
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Nov 20, 2015 23:45
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Do It Once Right posted:Dale is concerned that malicious refugees would buy guns with their welfare and foodstamps money. Dale gets an 'A' rating from the NRA, so we can be sure he's not implying that maybe the fact that it's absurdly easy for terrorists to purchase guns in Texas is a problem.
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Nov 20, 2015 23:48
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I thought I recognized Liz Miar, the one running the anti-Trump Trump Card LLC pac... She's Scott Walker's old Digital media consultant who was fired from the campaign after insulting Iowa! After Walker dumped out she took to twitter to poo poo on the Walker campaign. http://www.mediaite.com/online/liz-mair-unleashes-tweetstorm-on-why-walker-campaign-failed/
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Nov 20, 2015 23:50
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Montasque posted:I thought I recognized Liz Miar, the one running the anti-Trump Trump Card LLC pac... She's Scott Walker's old Digital media consultant who was fired from the campaign after insulting Iowa! After Walker dumped out she took to twitter to poo poo on the Walker campaign. Here's something that's gonna blow your drat mind: Miz Liar.
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Nov 20, 2015 23:52
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I love that the establishment is running a guerilla campaign against an insurgent. The rebels have taken the capital and now the army is scattered into the jungle.
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Nov 20, 2015 23:52
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AngryBooch posted:Liberal millennials should be cashing in on this tactic to redistribute the wealth of the idle rich and paranoid. Sell your soul for 8-13 years and come out the other side having done a public good while enriching yourself. Run for local office as a hard right crazy motherfucker to siphon donations from Republicans who can win broader elections. Start 501(c)(4)s that ask for donations from right wing idiots and use that money for further fundraising and buying copies of your lovely self-published amazon e-book that's a 150 page stream of consciousness you pumped out while watching OAN for an afternoon. Insinuate yourself into a super pac to get payed exorbitant overtime pay while posting on Something Awful; now you're a social media maven. Didn't a bunch of trots become neocons this way? Or is that just a myth? Anyway, I think this is probably like thinking you could pick up a heroin habit for a little while. Joementum posted:John Kasich retweeted a YouTube video bashing Trump. Unfortunately, the video was from a Democratic-aligned Super PAC and they decided to change the splash image and title after he tweeted it. Now you know the level of political ability it takes to become the Republican governor of Ohio.
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Nov 20, 2015 23:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Ok, fair enough. So presuming one of them drops out, add their votes together, you're at 28% to Trump's 22%? Presuming, of course, that none of Cruz's backers support Trump as their second choice. . . Some or most of Cruz's support might go to Trump, but you also need to consider Christie, Kasich, and of course Jeb, who are all going to be donating to the Rubs machine.
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Nov 20, 2015 23:58
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I wish there was a 24/7 trump livestream to watch. He's so goddamn compelling. Is he giving any speeches tonight??
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Nov 20, 2015 23:59
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New anti-Trump ad from the Kasich pac: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyX63rPzuCQ PUTIN/TRUMP TRUMP/PUTIN
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Nov 21, 2015 00:01
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Montasque posted:New anti-Trump ad from the Kasich pac: This one might actually be effective, but on the other hand I thought his stance on staying out of Russia's way was well-known.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:04
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Jewel Repetition posted:Some or most of Cruz's support might go to Trump, but you also need to consider Christie, Kasich, and of course Jeb, who are all going to be donating to the Rubs machine. Yes, but all the Carson supporters will have gone Full Trump by that point , etc. Ultimately the argument over "will Trump win the primary" boils down to who you think the majority of Republican voters are right now. Is the Tea Party "Fringe" the actual majority of Republican primary voters, or is there a Silent Majority of Real Conservative Establishment Sane Republicans who will all coalesce together to defeat the "Outsider" candidate? The people who think Trump will lose all seem to be maintaining this belief that the physicians are still running the asylum and the majority of Republican voters want an establishment candidate. But thing is, they don't. The majority of Republican primary voters want an outsider candidate -- Trump, Carson, maybe Cruz. If the majority wanted an establishment candidate, we would be searching for the not-Jeb!, not the not-Trump. We're searching for the not-Trump because Trump is the candidate that will ultimately get majority backing.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:04
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Joementum is wrong to say Trump has zero chance or an infinitesimal chance since there isn't enough data to be that confident in the model. But Trump still hasn't yet delivered anything more than lasting somewhat longer than a normal clown candidate. His showmanship and a hungry media converts this into a narrative of him having already turned the world upside down. It's a marketing angle just as much as 'Make America Great Again' is.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:05
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Nov 21, 2015 00:05
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:There's an additional layer to that story that I had missed, though perhaps y'all hadn't; Bush Senior was being extremely sarcastic with the Unleash Chang thing. In how many Bush family bedrooms would you bet the phrase "Unleash Chang" has been whispered lustily? I'd put my money on at least two. Vienna Circlejerk fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Nov 21, 2015 |
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Nov 21, 2015 00:06
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yes, but all the Carson supporters will have gone Full Trump by that point , etc. I don't know if this is necessarily true, since Trump doesn't have the same evangelical appeal, but on the other hand I anecdotally know a semi-devout Christian who supports Trump.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:07
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Anyone hear the peanuts song in their head?quote:Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina was spotted in the security line at the Newark airport. She was traveling to Oklahoma City for a private event and then to Iowa to attend the Family Leader Foundation Presidential Family Forum Friday night. http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/carly-fiorina-spotted-newark-airport-n466991
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Nov 21, 2015 00:09
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I don't get these new loss.jpg edits.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:09
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Anyone hear the peanuts song in their head? She doesn't have TSA Pre? What an amateur.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:12
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The only actual poll of where Carson supporters would go that I've seen had them splitting between several candidates in rough proportion to where those candidates stood in the polls, rather than all flocking to an understudy. Unfortunately I forget what poll it was. My guess this is because polling is roughly proportional to media coverage and people are going for the guy they've heard of.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:12
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Jewel Repetition posted:This one might actually be effective, but on the other hand I thought his stance on staying out of Russia's way was well-known. Putin is currently bombing the living hell out of ISIS. No one cares about the Ukraine right now. It's a tone deaf, idiotic, weak ad that may actually help Trump.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:14
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Montasque posted:I thought I recognized Liz Miar, the one running the anti-Trump Trump Card LLC pac... She's Scott Walker's old Digital media consultant who was fired from the campaign after insulting Iowa! After Walker dumped out she took to twitter to poo poo on the Walker campaign. Oh no watch out Trump, the people responsible for Walker's brilliant campaign are after you.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:16
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Phlegmish posted:Oh no watch out Trump, the people responsible for Walker's brilliant campaign are after you. She now has a GO FUND ME! https://www.gofundme.com/n2bc5fs4 This is legit guys!
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Nov 21, 2015 00:18
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Peel posted:Joementum is wrong to say Trump has zero chance or an infinitesimal chance since there isn't enough data to be that confident in the model. But Trump still hasn't yet delivered anything more than lasting somewhat longer than a normal clown candidate. His showmanship and a hungry media converts this into a narrative of him having already turned the world upside down. It's a marketing angle just as much as 'Make America Great Again' is. "somewhat longer" is a laughable understatement. At this point people like Joe are going full scale Ron Paul poll skewing, it's pretty funny.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:19
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Montasque posted:I thought I recognized Liz Miar, the one running the anti-Trump Trump Card LLC pac... She's Scott Walker's old Digital media consultant who was fired from the campaign after insulting Iowa! After Walker dumped out she took to twitter to poo poo on the Walker campaign. Huh, somehow I would have expected Liz Phair to be more of a Democrat.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:26
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Vienna Circlejerk posted:In how many Bush family bedrooms would you bet the phrase "Unleash Chang" has been whispered lustily? I'd put my money on at least two. There is no way ¡Jeb! hasn't donned yellow face and done his best "ching chong wing wong" accent to woo someone.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:28
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:"somewhat longer" is a laughable understatement. At this point people like Joe are going full scale Ron Paul poll skewing, it's pretty funny. I agree, Giuliani will definitely be the nominee, or I guess maybe Thompson.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:33
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I still think it's funny that people are still trying to characterize Trump as lasting "somewhat longer than normal for a clown candidate". He's been leading since the end of June. He's almost singlehandedly destroyed Jeb and is in the middle of removing two more candidates from the race. The only person to even come close to challenging him got exposed as a fraud and is sliding in the polls. What more do you want to see? Comparing Trump's monthslong grip on the #1 position nationwide to Paul's brief lead in Iowa in late 2011 is really confusing.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:34
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At this point the question isn't really "How can Trump win the nomination?", it's "How can he lose the nomination?" It would take multiple establishment candidates dropping out and consolidating behind either Rubio or Cruz, a brokered convention, or a (several?) surprise defeat for Trump in one of the early states scaring away the fairweather voters. Are there any other reasonable scenarios? (Obviously we have to ignore hypothetical scenarios like "highly accurate meteoroid" or "insane and disgruntled Mexican migrant") Of course, anything could change once the early results come in for Iowa et al.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:38
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Brannock posted:At this point the question isn't really "How can Trump win the nomination?", it's "How can he lose the nomination?" please god let this primary end with a brokered convention with trump as the kingmaker 
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Nov 21, 2015 00:40
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They are about to hit Trump with everything they got. The game plan is as follows: Blow Trump up, make the race Rubio VS Cruz, box Cruz out, Rubio wins the nom and makes Fiorina his running mate.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:42
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Brannock posted:It would take multiple establishment candidates dropping out and consolidating behind either Rubio or Cruz That's absolutely going to happen. Brannock posted:a brokered convention And that's on the table even if it's unlikely.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:43
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Montasque posted:They are about to hit Trump with everything they got. The game plan is as follows: Blow Trump up, make the race Rubio VS Cruz, box Cruz out, Rubio wins the nom and makes Fiorina his running mate. Any day now..
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Nov 21, 2015 00:44
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Basically if Trump is still standing after the GOP tries to crush him with all its weight, then I'll say he's the likely nominee and Joementum will admit it's a possibility.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:44
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Jewel Repetition posted:That's absolutely going to happen. Oh, of course it will. The question is, will it happen early enough to matter?
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Nov 21, 2015 00:45
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Brannock posted:I still think it's funny that people are still trying to characterize Trump as lasting "somewhat longer than normal for a clown candidate". He's been leading since the end of June. He's almost singlehandedly destroyed Jeb and is in the middle of removing two more candidates from the race. The only person to even come close to challenging him got exposed as a fraud and is sliding in the polls. What more do you want to see? You're assuming Trump did all those things because he shouted loudly while they were happening. Carson would definitely have imploded all by himself, he's followed a normal arc for a joke candidate. It's plausible that Trump contributed significantly to Jeb!'s vicious circle, but all that shows is that his showmanship can amplify some media spirals, not that he is going to win the nomination. What more I would want to see is Trump maintaining his leads into the voting season and toward Super Tuesday. Right now, there's not much evidence that he's going to be the nominee, because early primary polling is not a good predictor of the nominee. Of course we won't have that information until much later in the race, but that's why everyone speaking confidently about how Trump has turned the world upside down is wrong: because it's not possible to know that yet.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:47
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I just saw my old JROTC instructor standing behind Ben Carson in a news piece about him registering in New Hampshire. I remember he chaired Fred Thompson's NH campaign.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:50
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What is Rubio's campaign infrastructure like? From what I've read, Jeb had the most robust operation that is slowly dying and is just waiting for someone to finish it off, Trump and Cruz are running well-financed, slick operations, and Rubio is just sort of scrambling to put something together.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:50
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The strongest evidence currently that Trump might be the nominee is that he's omnipotent, and wants to the nominee.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:54
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Montasque posted:They are about to hit Trump with everything they got. The game plan is as follows: Blow Trump up, make the race Rubio VS Cruz, box Cruz out, Rubio wins the nom and makes Fiorina his running mate. This. They need a scandal on Trump to blow him up, I'm thinking they plant some kiddie porn on his computer or pull an Assange.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:55
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Brannock posted:It would take multiple establishment candidates dropping out and consolidating behind either Rubio or Cruz, a brokered convention, or a (several?) surprise defeat for Trump in one of the early states scaring away the fairweather voters. Are there any other reasonable scenarios? Sure. The political machines in the early primary and Super Tuesday states finally swing into action behind someone or someones. This turns out to be effective. Remember that Bush doesn't actually have many endorsements yet. We haven't seen what happens if the party decides on someone. Trump finally says something so stupid, evil or liberal that he can't phase through the backlash, and he enters a downward spiral. He's seemed invincible so far, but it could just be good luck. There's not enough evidence to say. Trump's numbers suffer a decline as voter and media fashions move on, or voters approach the race differently with voting imminent. It's not difficult. Trump just has to lose. Like, regular lose, in all the ways candidates lose despite having a lead in the polls at some point.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:59
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