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gentle pete
Feb 21, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo

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divabot
Jun 17, 2015

A polite little mouse!

Of course there's an SSC subreddit, and of course the content is the usual. They appear to have brought over the comments section.

The Vosgian Beast
Aug 13, 2011

Business is slow

divabot posted:

Of course there's an SSC subreddit, and of course the content is the usual. They appear to have brought over the comments section.

Here's a crazy idea: what if all this status stuff reduces in the end to accusations of bad faith that make rationalists feel all warm and fuzzy inside, but which would never actually convince anyone who hasn't drunk the Slate Star Kool-Aid? What if it's more helpful to respond to your enemies on the level of actual ideas rather than treating them as bands of roving apes you're studying like some sort of disdainful Jane Goodall?

Peztopiary
Mar 16, 2009

by exmarx
The level of actual ideas has very little use for hyper-rational AI gods.

The Vosgian Beast
Aug 13, 2011

Business is slow
Haha, oh wow

Eox
Jun 20, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
It's no wonder he's up his own rear end considering how far back you need to bend to make that thought experiment work.

Eox
Jun 20, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
e: double post

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Now I'm not entirely sure, but I think he's saying people who hold religious beliefs are Nazis. It's subtle but I think it's there. hosed up, if true.

Lottery of Babylon
Apr 25, 2012

STRAIGHT TROPIN'


This was pretty okay for the first paragraph or so before I realized it wasn't about the confederate flag.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
Minor point: that guy has absolutely no idea what nazi Germany and post-war Denazification actually looked like.

Eox
Jun 20, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Bonus points for unflinchingly painting Jews as greedy, Romani as the embodiment of superstition and The Gays as lustful and thinking that not killing them makes it alright.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
I know I owe (parts of) the thread an effort post on Scott's lacking statistical education - I've started writing it and it's much too lame and boring and I can't quite figure out how to approach it. Here's a smaller thing.

Observe Scott's argument http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/11/16/hardball-questions-for-the-next-debate/:

quote:

Mr. Bush:

Assume that fitness-to-be-President is a normally distributed trait with known heritability. Suppose also that past elections have 100% efficiency; that is, they always choose the most qualified candidate. We can then use some of the standard regression-to-the-mean equations to determine the chances that the highest fitness-to-be-President individual in generation G will be the offspring of the highest fitness-to-be-President individual in generation G-1.

The single most fit-to-be president man in a population of 300 million would be about six standard deviations above the norm. If that man breeds with the single most fit-to-be-president woman, and if in keeping with findings for other complex traits heritability is about 60%, we would expect their offspring to be about 3.6 standard deviations above the mean in fitness-to-be-president. One in every 2500 or so people is 3.6 standard deviations above average, meaning there would be at least 120,000 equally good or better presidential candidates than they in the United States.

How high would the heritability of presidential fitness have to be before there was at least a 10% chance that the offspring of the two most presidential Americans was himself presidential material? My calculations suggest about 90%, which is very high compared to what we know about similar traits – but actually not entirely outside the realm of plausibility.

But if a maximally-presidential man breeds with a woman who is less than maximally presidential, the odds fall precipitiously. Suppose that a maximally-presidential man breeds with a woman who is merely in the 99th percentile for presidential ability. Now given a heritability of 60% there will be three million Americans more presidential than their average offspring. Even given a 100% heritability, there is only a 1/73 chance that their offspring will themselves be worthy of the presidency.

So my question for you is: do you think Barbara Bush is an unrecognized political super-genius, or are there probably hundreds of thousands of Americans who would make a better president than you would?
What you noticed is he's talking about heritability of presidentability, which strikes you as ridiculous and :biotruths: and so on. What I noticed, cause I'm a huge nerd, is he's bad at statistics.

Scott correctly explains why, if we accept that presidentability has a time-invariant genetic component (an obviously stupid idea), and that Bush senior was a good president (an idea at least I am skeptical of), the probability of Bush being the best candidate is very low.
What Scott does not understand is that the probability of being the best candidate is very low for literally every person ever, and given Scott's premises, Bush would still be one of the strongest, by far, contenders.

The argument is simple. If our only information regarding how good of a president somebody would be are his parents plus the idea of regression to the mean, yes, the chances of Jeb being the best candidate are low. But the chances of literally every other person not named Bush or possibly Clinton would be even lower, considering everyone else has fewer direct relatives who once were president than Jeb. So while your prior on Jeb being it should be low, by Scott's idiotic metric, you should still prefer him over the alternative, for every possible alternative, because Jeb's chances of having six-sigma president genes are better than everybody else's chances of six-sigma president genes.

Scott's argument is basically "lightning never strikes the same tree twice!".

If Scott had ever been exposed to Bayesian statistics in practice, he would have known better, because he would have seen an actual posterior distribution, and these sum to one, with usually very low absolute values for even the clearly strongest candidate value.

The Vosgian Beast
Aug 13, 2011

Business is slow
Voltaire is alpha as gently caress, unlike Bernie Sanders, who is a gamma male

Twerkteam Pizza
Sep 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

I laughed too hard

Woolie Wool
Jun 2, 2006


The Vosgian Beast posted:

Here's a crazy idea: what if all this status stuff reduces in the end to accusations of bad faith that make rationalists feel all warm and fuzzy inside, but which would never actually convince anyone who hasn't drunk the Slate Star Kool-Aid? What if it's more helpful to respond to your enemies on the level of actual ideas rather than treating them as bands of roving apes you're studying like some sort of disdainful Jane Goodall?

Well if other people can actually think coherently, then they can also run a society by themselves, and where does that leave me, a would-be aristocratic god-king?

:qq: my ego can't take it :qq:

The Vosgian Beast
Aug 13, 2011

Business is slow
That said, don't make fun of this guy because he does lift, bro. He could totally kick your rear end

Puppy Time
Mar 1, 2005


There's gamma males now? What're they gonna do after they fill up the entire goddamn Greek alphabet with shades of men who supposedly can't get any poontang?

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

I am the Omega Man. All bow.

Annointed
Mar 2, 2013

Jokes on you I'm omega.

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

No wait--that's right. You're omega and I am legend. I get so confused about that.

Twerkteam Pizza
Sep 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

Jack Gladney posted:

No wait--that's right. You're omega and I am legend. I get so confused about that.

Who do I bow before? I can only do it like, twice. My doctor says I should have had a back brace when I was little.

Merdifex
May 13, 2015

by Shine
Scott has made it obvious time and time again that he doesn't understand just what the gently caress heritability means, and how useless it is as a measure for "genetic-ness" of any given psychological trait. What a tool, but he's a psychiatrist, which explains much.

Woolie Wool
Jun 2, 2006



The sheer self-absorption and oblivious creepiness in this is astonishing. At some point, shouldn't one take a step back and consider, even if you could somehow defang Nazism (you can't, because alles Leben ist Kampf is the cornerstone of fascism and none of the rest works without it), it doesn't deserve to be reformed.The swastika wouldn't be worth rehabilitating into a more peaceful symbol, it deserves to be ripped down and replaced with the Schwarz-Rot-Gold of German liberalism. gently caress, even actual neo-Nazis are more sophisticated than this, they glom onto the Imperial German flag and project their "traditional" values onto a symbol of a regime that was actually pretty progressive as fin-de-siecle European empires go (granted, being mildly less oppressive and genocidal than your extremely oppressive and genocidal neighbors isn't that much of an accomplishment).

Oh god, the "national unity Nazism provides". :cripes: Does Yud think the Schwarz-Rot-Gold and other national symbols of democratic Germany were imposed as a punishment or something? Revolution of 1848, motherfucker. Look it up! This flag actually has a longer and more storied history than the "traditional" flags of the Kaiserreich (1871) and :hitler: (1923, made the national flag in 1935). gently caress, liberals pretty much invented the idea of united Germany--it was a liberal who wrote the Deutschlandlied, not a monarchist.


Pictured: Germania, about to wreck all your monarchic reactionary poo poo. DEMOKRATIE ÜBER ALLES, BITCH.

So much for "rationalism". This is straight, uncritical acceptance of Nazi propaganda, absorbing Joseph Goebbels' view of the world like a loving sponge, because they think stahlhelms and jackboots are cool I guess.

Twerkteam Pizza posted:

Who do I bow before? I can only do it like, twice. My doctor says I should have had a back brace when I was little.

Genuflect instead. If you go on all fours like a dog it will keep your back straight and remind you of your place relative to your betters. :agesilaus:

Woolie Wool has a new favorite as of 18:49 on Nov 26, 2015

The Vosgian Beast
Aug 13, 2011

Business is slow

Woolie Wool posted:

The sheer self-absorption and oblivious creepiness in this is astonishing. At some point, shouldn't one take a step back and consider, even if you could somehow defang Nazism (you can't, because alles Leben ist Kampf is the cornerstone of fascism and none of the rest works without it), it doesn't deserve to be reformed.The swastika wouldn't be worth rehabilitating into a more peaceful symbol, it deserves to be ripped down and replaced with the Schwarz-Rot-Gold of German liberalism. gently caress, even actual neo-Nazis are more sophisticated than this, they glom onto the Imperial German flag and project their "traditional" values onto a symbol of a regime that was actually pretty progressive as fin-de-siecle European empires go (granted, being mildly less oppressive and genocidal than your extremely oppressive and genocidal neighbors isn't that much of an accomplishment).

Oh god, the "national unity Nazism provides". :cripes: Does Yud think the Schwarz-Rot-Gold and other national symbols of democratic Germany were imposed as a punishment or something? Revolution of 1848, motherfucker. Look it up! This flag actually has a longer and more storied history than the "traditional" flags of the Kaiserreich (1871) and :hitler: (1923, made the national flag in 1935). gently caress, liberals pretty much invented the idea of united Germany--it was a liberal who wrote the Deutschlandlied, not a monarchist.


Pictured: Germania, about to wreck all your monarchic reactionary poo poo. DEMOKRATIE ÜBER ALLES, BITCH.

So much for "rationalism". This is straight, uncritical acceptance of Nazi propaganda, absorbing Joseph Goebbels' view of the world like a loving sponge, because they think stahlhelms and jackboots are cool I guess.


Genuflect instead. If you go on all fours like a dog it will keep your back straight and remind you of your place relative to your betters. :agesilaus:
The joke is fundies, this was before Scott got a boner for neo-nazis

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
Yeah, pretty sure that was an extended joke comparing organised religion to Nazism, saying that no matter how much you paper over something hideous and try to present it as a beneficial force, the old horrible bits still shine through. Which is pretty tasteless in its own right, but it's not actually saying we should asset-strip the Nazi ideology.

The Vosgian Beast
Aug 13, 2011

Business is slow
I will respond to your point as soon as I come up with a sufficiently tortured, baroque, and overlong analogy, which I will then write as a story, because I have a frustrated creative drive and a captive audience.

Woolie Wool
Jun 2, 2006


The Vosgian Beast posted:

The joke is fundies, this was before Scott got a boner for neo-nazis

Oh. If he could actually write in a way that doesn't make my eyes glaze over with boredom maybe I'd have gotten it.

The Vosgian Beast
Aug 13, 2011

Business is slow

Woolie Wool posted:

Oh. If he could actually write in a way that doesn't make my eyes glaze over with boredom maybe I'd have gotten it.

It's almost like this would have been better if it had been delivered in the form of an argument, rather than Uncle Scott's Choose Your Own Adventure Story-Time Fun

Merdifex
May 13, 2015

by Shine
Goddamn is this urbit whitepaper pretentious as gently caress http://urbit.org/docs/theory/whitepaper

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

Merdifex posted:

Goddamn is this urbit whitepaper pretentious as gently caress http://urbit.org/docs/theory/whitepaper
hoon

Wrt. the original post in that thread: I think Skeleton Warriors are usually created by magical spells??

Merdifex posted:

Scott has made it obvious time and time again that he doesn't understand just what the gently caress heritability means, and how useless it is as a measure for "genetic-ness" of any given psychological trait.
Useless is an overstatement. Deeply flawed? Yes. Useless? Probably not quite.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

quote:

Urbit does not use short-lived applications like Unix commands. A %gall application is a Unix daemon. A generator is not like a Unix process at all; it cannot send moves. A dialog generator, waiting for user input, does not talk to the console; it tells :dojo what to say to the console. A web scraper does not talk to %eyre; it tells :dojo what resources it needs (GET only). This is POLA (principle of least authority); it makes the command line less powerful and thus less scary.
I will tonight have nightmares of a hybrid of this and the A Rational Argument for Prostate Orgasms thing.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

quote:

:hood is a classic userspace system daemon, like Unix init. It's a system component, but it's in userspace because it can be.

:hood is actually a compound application made of three libraries, /helm, /drum, and /kiln. /helm manages the PKI; /drum multiplexes the console; /kiln controls %clay sync.

/drum routes console activity over %gall messages, and can connect to both local and foreign command-line interfaces - ssh, essentially.

One pattern in Urbit console input is that an application doesn't just parse its input after a line is is entered, but on each character. This way, we can reject or correct syntax errors as they happen. It's a much more pleasant user experience.
Yeah speaking of user experience can I, like, use this to check my Facebook? But, like, better?

Merdifex
May 13, 2015

by Shine

Cingulate posted:

Useless is an overstatement. Deeply flawed? Yes. Useless? Probably not quite.

Maybe, when you start getting into more and more complex psychological traits that's when heritability becomes more and more useless. It's different with traits like myopia.

SatansOnion
Dec 12, 2011

Merdifex posted:

Maybe, when you start getting into more and more complex psychological traits that's when heritability becomes more and more useless. It's different with traits like myopia.

And when the "trait" at issue is "being a really good President", you're getting deep into "perfect frictionless spherical cow population of cows" territory.

Woolie Wool
Jun 2, 2006


Cingulate posted:

I will tonight have nightmares of a hybrid of this and the A Rational Argument for Prostate Orgasms thing.

What the gently caress is this nonsense? Why can't he name things by their purpose? Why would you have something stupid like "spleen" instead of something self-explanatory like "mkdir"?

Merdifex
May 13, 2015

by Shine

SatansOnion posted:

And when the "trait" at issue is "being a really good President", you're getting deep into "perfect frictionless spherical cow population of cows" territory.

Yeah, that's just loving absurd. And it's not like Scott's never been told about this. The man's just impervious to correction.

divabot
Jun 17, 2015

A polite little mouse!

The Vosgian Beast posted:

Here's a crazy idea: what if all this status stuff reduces in the end to accusations of bad faith that make rationalists feel all warm and fuzzy inside, but which would never actually convince anyone who hasn't drunk the Slate Star Kool-Aid? What if it's more helpful to respond to your enemies on the level of actual ideas rather than treating them as bands of roving apes you're studying like some sort of disdainful Jane Goodall?

This was of course in The Discourse(tm) today. (My contribution.) "Fnording" (for those times you literally can't think of a substantive objection to your hated outgroup and are reduced to synthesizing something you can accuse them of "signaling" over) as heartily embraced by Scott and his commenters was of course invented by Nydwracu. I think Nydwracu understood he was just shitposting (at least at first), but I'm pretty sure Scott didn't. (Oligopsony tried, but oh well.)

Though I'll pay Argumate for this one.

(and all that in a thread started by a tankie. Post-Rationalist Tumblr!)

Count Chocula
Dec 25, 2011

WE HAVE TO CONTROL OUR ENVIRONMENT
IF YOU SEE ME POSTING OUTSIDE OF THE AUSPOL THREAD PLEASE TELL ME THAT I'M MISSED AND TO START POSTING AGAIN

Jack Gladney posted:

I am the Omega Man. All bow.

But the Omega Man was Charlton Heston, who was an Alpha Male. I'm confused.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

Merdifex posted:

Maybe, when you start getting into more and more complex psychological traits that's when heritability becomes more and more useless. It's different with traits like myopia.
The crazy thing is how insanely high the heritabilities of so many cognitive traits are. It's just so much that, even considering how flawed all this is, it'd be surprising if there wasn't at least a practically significant degree of genetic determination.

Woolie Wool posted:

What the gently caress is this nonsense? Why can't he name things by their purpose? Why would you have something stupid like "spleen" instead of something self-explanatory like "mkdir"?
It looks as if you dropped Unix on my mom and she went like, what the gently caress, why is everything named strangely? Why is the tool to look at the end of a file called "less"? Why is the tool to talk to other computers called "ssh"? Why is the magic word to gently caress with deep computer stuff "sudo"? If I make my own OS, I'll call changing directories "cowbob" and shutting down the computer "mulinumo" and sending emails "zonkblork".

Only there probably aren't any two white people on the planet more dissimilar than my mom and Moldbug, with one important exception being that Moldbug actually SHOULD know that most computer language functions do not in fact have arbitrary monkey cheese random names.

SatansOnion posted:

And when the "trait" at issue is "being a really good President", you're getting deep into "perfect frictionless spherical cow population of cows" territory.
And yet, I think the more glaring flaw is his failure to grasp applied probabilities.

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Merdifex
May 13, 2015

by Shine

Cingulate posted:

The crazy thing is how insanely high the heritabilities of so many cognitive traits are. It's just so much that, even considering how flawed all this is, it'd be surprising if there wasn't at least a practically significant degree of genetic determination.

Of course genes have an effect, we just don't know how to measure it.

The very thing which IQ tests claim to measure; human intelligence, is what makes that measurement, independent of time and place, near impossible.

Same can be said about "personality", which the "Big Five" claim to measure.

No wonder all that heritability remains missing in their entirety, considering that none of the GWAS or GCTA findings have thus far been meaningfully replicated.

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