|
computer parts posted:That would still be moving leftward. Yeah, and going even farther right-ward in other ways (look at most US state governments). If anything beyond social issues, it is sort of a draw. Canada is going relatively leftward, but only a very modest amount. Then you have the rest of the world, which seems to either destabilizing or going even more authoritarian (I guess except Burma, but who actually knows). Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:08 on Dec 7, 2015 |
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 06:48 |
|
|
Ardennes posted:Yeah, and going even farther right-ward in other ways (look at most US state governments). If anything beyond social issues, it is sort of a draw. No, if anything social issues are the draw (abortion versus [etc]). Obamacare is an economic issue and while it isn't perfect it is a significant shift leftward, if only for the medicaid expansion (and while several states didn't accept the expansion, it didn't exist before hand so rejecting it doesn't count as "going rightwards").
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:05
|
|
|
computer parts posted:No, if anything social issues are the draw (abortion versus [etc]). Obamacare is an economic issue and while it isn't perfect it is a significant shift leftward, if only for the medicaid expansion (and while several states didn't accept the expansion, it didn't exist before hand so rejecting it doesn't count as "going rightwards"). Medicaid expansion was only in barely more than half the states and either way, the "good" of Obamacare is more or less easily cancelled about GOP control over a considerable majority of governorship/state legislatures/the House. Then you have the robust growth of an American populist hard right first with the Tea Party and now with Trump. The Democrats control the presidency (may hold it), but more or less they are on the retreat pretty much everywhere else. The with the relative death of the left and even center-left (much of it self caused), the world if anything seems to be heading toward populist focused right-authoritarianism. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:17 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:13
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Medicaid expansion was only in barely more than half the states and either way, the "good" of Obamacare is more or less easily cancelled about GOP control over a considerable majority of governorship/state legislatures/the House. Then you have the robust growth of an American populist hard right first with the Tea Party and now with Trump. There's no growth involved with the Tea Party. It's the same base believing the same things for 30 years.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:17
|
|
|
Yessss Now this is a great way to start a week. Let's hope things stay peaceful and the few chavist left take the loss with ease. Hopefully the last numbers go in our favor too. Man finally winning one feels great. El Hefe posted:Whoop whoop we did it Yooou wouldn't happen to be from Valencia and play tabletop rpgs? Because I know a "ElGefe".
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:18
|
|
|
I'm glad Venezuela kicked these assholes out. Anyone mourning the Chavistas because of the "global left" needs to actually learn something about them.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:22
|
|
|
computer parts posted:There's no growth involved with the Tea Party. It's the same base believing the same things for 30 years. Either way they (the populist right) have a more active voice in the government, and even if the Tea Party movement itself disappeared, it has had long lasting influence on the GOP. Trump may very well win the nomination in part because of it, something that wouldn't have happened 20 years ago. ALL-PRO SEXMAN posted:I'm glad Venezuela kicked these assholes out. Anyone mourning the Chavistas because of the "global left" needs to actually learn something about them. The PSUV got what is deserved, it completely hosed if anything in a historic manner. That said, the left/center-left is completely screwed. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:26 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:22
|
|
|
Every single seat in Chavez's home state went to the opposition, godamnm.
Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:26
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Either way they (the populist right) have a more active voice in the government, and even if the Tea Party movement itself disappeared, it has had long lasting influence on the GOP. Trump may very well win the nomination in part because of it, something that wouldn't have happened 20 years ago. Trump getting the nomination doesn't necessarily mean a thing. Mondale got the Dem nod in '84 and look how that turned out.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:26
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Either way they (the populist right) have a more active voice in the government, and even if the Tea Party movement itself disappeared, it has had long lasting influence on the GOP. Trump may very well win the nomination in part because of it, something that wouldn't have happened 20 years ago. If anything the populist Right was more influential 20-ish years ago, going by Perot.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:27
|
|
|
ALL-PRO SEXMAN posted:Trump getting the nomination doesn't mean a thing. Mondale got the Dem's nod in '84 and look how that turned out. It represents a shift in American politics even if he doesn't become president, and will likely have some effect at the state/congressional level for years to come. Also, the Democrats have no ability to regain the house, which means Hillary will have as much leeway as post-2010 Obama. Basically, deadlock at the federal level. computer parts posted:If anything the populist Right was more influential 20-ish years ago, going by Perot. Trump (if he wins the nom) certainly will get a larger share of the vote than Perot, and while the two are comparable, Trump is more extreme. Also, this is a Venezuela thread, but I guess everyone is waiting for the rest about the remaining seats? Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:35 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:29
|
|
|
Was Perot really populist right? I thought he was more populist libertarian.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:41
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:
You're not comparing apples to apples. If Trump goes 3rd party he won't do better than 1992 Perot did.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:42
|
|
|
computer parts posted:You're not comparing apples to apples. If Trump goes 3rd party he won't do better than 1992 Perot did. If anything I think that would say more about how American campaign politics works at this point (especially funding), then the political leanings of the country. America isn't isolated from the broad pull of populism across much of the developed world, and I wouldn't be surprised if anything after Sanders concedes that the left in the US will relatively shrink even further in defeat.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 07:58
|
|
|
Labradoodle posted:The word is that the government is trying to negotiate hard for those last seats,
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 08:14
|
|
|
Good, I hope this is the beginning of the end for the PSUV. For the moment, they'll try anything legal and illegal to neuter and bypass the assembly as much as possible, though.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 08:17
|
|
|
Well, it's the start of good news, at least. I'm still expecting Maduro to declare martial law and order the arrest of all the opposition canidates, though.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 08:54
|
|
|
There's a lot of unglamorous work ahead removing the incompetent crony judges and finding the appropriate criminal charges for Maduro, which will be complicated by the fact that Chavez rewrote the constitution multiple times and the PSUV's thug and gang supporters are only going to use more violence now that they legitimately feel threatened. Nothing is for certain about the medium or long run future, but at least there are some encouraging signs. An electoral thumping of this magnitude can't be denied in either the international community or by simply waving off all opposition as being "the rich" or "agitators" anymore.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 10:57
|
|
|
If the MUD gets at least 2 of the remaining 22 undecided seats they will be able to remove ministers from their posts. If they get 13 of those seats they will be able to remove supreme court judges and completly rework public institutions. The MUD has said that its first order of business will be to draft an amnesty law to free the country's political prisoners. That means Leopoldo Lopez's days in the Ramo Verde military prison are rapidly coming to an end. I'll have snippets of Maduro's "concession speech" (although I hesitate to call it that) later on today. The speech nicely encapsulates the incompetence, arrogance and total disconnection from reality that drove Venezuelans to reject the PSUV in such historic numbers. There are all kinds of rumours going around on out why it took the CNE six hours to announce results that they had access to at 6:00 PM. It's impossible to tell for sure, but interesting to think about all the different conversations Maduro et al. must have had in their situation room as the night dragged on. EDIT: El Nacional reports that the vote was split 68% for the MUD and 32% for the PSUV with a voter turnout of 74.25%. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 11:16 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 11:10
|
|
|
I wonder what the real percentage of votes against socialism was, if even after all the rigging they had to report 68%. Did 80% of Venezuelans vote for freedom? 85? This is a monumentally strong mandate for MUD to cleanse the government of Chavez's evil.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 12:51
|
|
|
M. Discordia posted:I wonder what the real percentage of votes against socialism was, if even after all the rigging they had to report 68%. Did 80% of Venezuelans vote for freedom? 85? This is a monumentally strong mandate for MUD to cleanse the government of Chavez's evil. Probably closer to 95-100%, I would think.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 13:52
|
|
|
Shakespearean Beef posted:Probably closer to 95-100%, I would think. That's a big exaggeration. I'm guessing it's closer to 80% ? There are still plenty of people that are 100% in favor of anything connected to Chavez.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 14:03
|
|
|
CalmDownMate posted:There is not a single country on earth that is moving leftwards except maybe Canada. Don't worry as soon as our household debt bubble bursts we'll join in on the global descent into facism. There are no actual socialists in Canadian politics.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 14:19
|
|
|
It was very nice of the PSUV to use their absolute control of the elections in such a way as to make the opposition win
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 14:20
|
|
|
If all the numbers are correct, here's the math:
The opposition also apparently just won two circuits in Lara, meaning that they're officially at the 3/5 majority benchmark of 101. This gives them a lot more of legislative muscle to flex. EDIT: I think a lot of people (yours truly included) are having a difficult time accepting the results. It's clear that the PSUV is done for now. What does it mean for chavismo? Is Venezuelan not a Bolivarian country anymore (whatever that means)? So many questions. One thing is clear, though: the results prove unequivocally what Venezuelans have known for months and months. They PSUV and the Maduro government in particular no longer have the country's confidence. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 14:27
|
|
|
Hugoon Chavez posted:That's a big exaggeration. I'm guessing it's closer to 80% ? There are still plenty of people that are 100% in favor of anything connected to Chavez. I doubt there are many. Perhaps at most 2% of voters. I would put money on the actual result for MUD being 98-99%. Bob le Moche posted:It was very nice of the PSUV to use their absolute control of the elections in such a way as to make the opposition win They knew that no body apart from Maduro himself would vote for PSUV, so they rigged the elections to make it look like people did. Will give them a justification for the bloody (perhaps nuclear) coup that Maduro will want to unleash. Shakespearean Beef fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 14:28
|
|
|
Bob le Moche posted:It was very nice of the PSUV to use their absolute control of the elections in such a way as to make the opposition win Their own gerrymandering tricks created a winner takes all scenario. Thankfully, they're too disconnected from the people that they didn't even consider it would backfire in the end. Shakespearean Beef posted:I doubt there are many. Perhaps at most 2% of voters. I would put money on the actual result for MUD being 98-99%. You're crazy. Chavismo still has a healthy amount of support, this vote should be seen as a punishment to the top dogs of the PSUV, who though they could keep winning elections indefinitely thanks to their control of the media, handing out a few goodies, and intimidation. If they play their cards right and find some competent leadership, Chavismo will remain a political force in Venezuela for the near future.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 15:08
|
|
|
Labradoodle, what's your take on the primary results (99 vs. 46)? The MUD announced early in the night that they had won 113 seats. Do you think that they're right, and that the 6 hour delay was the result of the government and the CNE trying to get that number down so that they could open room for negotiation? I'm asking because the number 99 appears to be way too convenient. It's a simple majority, but only 2 seats away from a 3/5 majority. If the MUD really did win 113 seats, pushing them down to 99 might be a way to pressuring them into a 3/5 compromise. I can easily picture the government telling the MUD, "It looks like you've got 99 seats for sure, but - oh no! - these 22 districts are way too close and could really very easily all go to the PSUV. Maybe we can come to some kind of agreement?" The opposition winning a challenge at the supreme court for districts that are too close to call is not even a remote possibility, I think.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 15:12
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:If anything I think that would say more about how American campaign politics works at this point (especially funding), then the political leanings of the country. Yes all those people he's animated just will then decide they don't like politics and just take their ball home. ep thats exactly what happened with the the supporters of Goldwater in 1964. Also @ Venezuelan posters is it probably true to say that Chavez has been your countries Peron or Andrew Jackson?
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 15:22
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:Labradoodle, what's your take on the primary results (99 vs. 46)? The MUD announced early in the night that they had won 113 seats. Do you think that they're right, and that the 6 hour delay was the result of the government and the CNE trying to get that number down so that they could open room for negotiation? That's my take on it as well. Although I did cheer like a schoolgirl when Tibisay read the PSUV seats first, as I did the math. They had to announce something last night due to the huge amount of pressure both from within and outside, but they're hoping the MUD will back down under threats in private. That being said, the certainty with which some opposition spokespersons have told people they're certain of having 113 seats can only mean they have the tallies in their hands. Hopefully, after years of being kicked around, they're not in any mood to back down and the government will recognize it's in their best interest as well to avoid conflict. UPDATE: By the way, my district elected the first transgender candidate in the history of the National Assembly, that's pretty cool. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 15:23
|
|
|
i'm very happy for the fall of PSUV. When a party reaches such a rotten state it's downfall is preferable to the charade of defending mere names or past ideals. gently caress PSUV as much as MPLA, their downfall is the only way you can re-organize the workers into something productive (while throwing them in disarray for twenty to forty years but c´est la vie). Let's see what happens now.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 15:26
|
|
|
Shakespearean Beef posted:
Much as I believe that the risk of violence is still present, this is Call of Duty: Ghosts territory.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 16:15
|
|
|
Mans posted:Let's see what happens now. Things continue to get worse over the short term, PSUV grows again in opposition and sweeps back into power when MUD reforms are just about to bear fruit. Just a guess.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 16:18
|
|
|
Mozi posted:Things continue to get worse over the short term, PSUV grows again in opposition and sweeps back into power when MUD reforms are just about to bear fruit. This is very likely actually.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 16:20
|
|
|
CalmDownMate posted:Also really marks the death of left worldwide now. Every single bastion of left power left in the world is in complete route. From Argentine Kirchner, to Hollande France, Venezuela now. Peru will probably be next to go. If Hollande's government was ever "left power" then I'm a pink unicorn.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 16:36
|
|
|
Is there a lot holding MUD together? Or is it just "we all dislike the PSUV"?
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 17:09
|
|
|
Tom Smykowski posted:Is there a lot holding MUD together? Or is it just "we all dislike the PSUV"? It's more like mutual survival. Not just "we all dislike the PSUV" but "if we don't band together we will be erradicated". That said they are honestly pretty good with each other. I'm sure there are power struggles inside it, but on the public front they seem very united. It's what happens when you have such a strong enemy, you can place your own ambitions in the backseat until the biggest threat is dealt with. I just hope Capriles never again becomes the face of the opposition.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 17:15
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:If all the numbers are correct, here's the math: This makes me think of how Venezuelans are going to look back at this time period. Will they run away from the left forever, or try to have a place for it to re-tweak it on the account of seeing how beneficial "missions" can be? Labradoodle posted:Their own gerrymandering tricks created a winner takes all scenario. Thankfully, they're too disconnected from the people that they didn't even consider it would backfire in the end. Crowsbeak posted:Yes all those people he's animated just will then decide they don't like politics and just take their ball home. ep thats exactly what happened with the the supporters of Goldwater in 1964. That's not why Goldwater failed at all. He failed because he was too radical for the general populace. More likely what woudl happen to Trump if he wins the nomination. Crowsbeak posted:Also @ Venezuelan posters is it probably true to say that Chavez has been your countries Peron or Andrew Jackson? Andrew Jackson seems accurate.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 17:43
|
|
|
The MUD is saying they won at least 112 seats (i.e. a 2/3rd majority) and could win as many as 116. That's an absolutely devastating loss for the PSUV. http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2015/12/07/unidad-tiene-112-diputados-asegurados-y-podria-llegar-a-116/ beer_war fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Dec 7, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 19:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 06:48 |
|
|
How many seats are needed to put forward constitutional changes?
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2015 19:22
|
|
