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Jumpingmanjim posted:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-23/we-now-have-eta-when-biggest-bond-bubble-world-will-burst Ah yes zerohedge, the site that has said the usd will suffer hyperinflation within the next six months for almost a decade. I'm sure they have their finger on the pulse of the chinese bond market
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Nov 30, 2015 09:16
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Zh is dumb but that story has been posted elsewhere. Namely ft alphaville.
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Nov 30, 2015 13:43
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Not sure if this has been posted yet http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/30/qa-chinese-yuan-set-to-join-imf-currency-basket "Shareholders in the Washington-based International Monetary Fund have voted to admit the yuan, also known as the renminbi, as the fifth member of its special drawing rights (SDR) currency basket alongside the US dollar, the Japanese yen, sterling and the euro" I'm sure this will have no consequences whatsoever.
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Dec 1, 2015 01:40
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Worklurker posted:Not sure if this has been posted yet What the Christ. Why?? It was "political" apparently. I'm not sure this is a great idea.
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Dec 1, 2015 01:58
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Artificer posted:What the Christ. Why?? Why not? I heard about it on the radio today, the reporter remarked on it as if it were expected and unsurprising.
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Dec 1, 2015 02:08
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What is and sdr? It sounds like a defacto master currency?
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Dec 1, 2015 02:11
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The percentage of the currency basket that remains US dollars will stay the same while everyone else loses ground to make room for China   
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Dec 1, 2015 02:30
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Squalid posted:Why not? I heard about it on the radio today, the reporter remarked on it as if it were expected and unsurprising. I dunno. The poo poo that China does with its currency makes me wary of it.
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Dec 1, 2015 03:48
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Cultural Imperial posted:What is and sdr? It sounds like a defacto master currency? Strategic Denarius Reserve
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Dec 1, 2015 03:55
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China seems to be going through the strange problem of wanting more international respect but at the same time maintaining tight control over their financial system in ways less centrally planned countries can't possibly do. Will this "symbolic victory" mean they're less able to tamper with how strong or weak the yuan is as much?
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Dec 1, 2015 04:24
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I'm pretty sure that currencies are supposed to be far more internationally traded than China's before being considered for the SDR but China cheesed that requirement by treating Hong Kong as an international border. The IMF went along with it because China is a colossal baby that wants to be at the grown-up table and just letting it in would be better than dealing with the fallout of the tantrum.
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Dec 1, 2015 05:10
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A great article at The NanFang covers a lot of this, and the possible future impact.Christopher Balding, The NanFang posted:While the RMB joining the SDR basket will have enormous symbolic importance, in the short term it seems unlikely to have any practical importance. Central bank RMB holdings are almost exclusively held through swap agreements and not physical RMB, so it seems unlikely that joining the SDR will prompt Beijing to release a flood of RMB even on transaction specific agreements, like to other central banks. In other words, barring additional announcements, this would amount to little more than an accounting exercise rather than tangible changes. Especially given the bond and bank repatriation we see taking place right now in the market place that is shrinking offshore RMB liquidity, RMB internationalization is going to be nothing more than another nice cliche. SDR membership does not internationalize the RMB
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Dec 1, 2015 07:04
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Cultural Imperial posted:What is and sdr? It sounds like a defacto master currency? Special Drawing Rights is a pseudo currency whose value is determined by a basket of major world currencies. It acts as a unit of account for the IMF, and is theoretically exchangeable for any currency in the basket. Currently it's US Dollars, Euros, British Pounds, and Japanese Yen. Multiple countries hold SDR in addition to normal currency for foreign reserve, and can use the IMF as an intermediary to trade them for actual currency if needed.
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Dec 1, 2015 15:37
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fishmech posted:Special Drawing Rights is a pseudo currency whose value is determined by a basket of major world currencies. It acts as a unit of account for the IMF, and is theoretically exchangeable for any currency in the basket. Currently it's US Dollars, Euros, British Pounds, and Japanese Yen. Multiple countries hold SDR in addition to normal currency for foreign reserve, and can use the IMF as an intermediary to trade them for actual currency if needed. Yeah but what does that mean? Can you buy rice with it? Can you backstop your banks with it? Can you trade it for bitcoin?
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Dec 1, 2015 16:32
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Cultural Imperial posted:Yeah but what does that mean? Can you buy rice with it? Can you backstop your banks with it? Can you trade it for bitcoin? Basically every country in the IMF is entitled to a certain amount of SDR according to various rules. Redemption of all SDRs value is guaranteed by the IMF member countries. If a country desperately needs foreign hard currency of the 4, or soon to be 5 SDR basket currencies, the IMF will arrange for one country to exchange their SDR value to another country for an equivalent value of the currency desired. This was all started when there were closely fixed exchange rates in the Bretton Woods system, as a means for making it easier to keep currency values aligned, but has persisted since then. Periodically, the IMF creates new SDR value and distributes it to all the countries, as sort of a form of financial aid but not really. Perhaps a good way to think of it is like the accounting-only predecessors to the Euro? Back then you would only be paying for things in Marks or Francs or whatever, but balances could be kept in the pre-Euro unified unit, and that unit could be exchanged for other real currencies. Though with that, private businesses could hold it. Only sovereign countries may own SDR.
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Dec 1, 2015 17:00
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SDR's are also used to set the liability limit for ship owners or carriers in various international conventions (Hague-Visby, civil liability convention, hazardous and noxious substances are the three that come to mind). I'm sure other industries do similar things. To the average Joe, though, it's completely meaningless.
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Dec 3, 2015 06:07
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The admition of the RMB to the SDR says more about the IMF at this point than it does about China. Basically anyone with even a modicum of economic influence is saying that it was a blatantly political move on the part of the IMF so don't expect governments to suddenly start scrambling to create Yuan reserves.
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Dec 3, 2015 06:09
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China is a fake country that for political reasons is getting fake face.
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Dec 3, 2015 14:33
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I recall reading in this thread something about how Chinese banking employees are underpaid, but their family is happy for them because of the "guanxi" it gets them? And something like how they are encouraged to open up accounts for their family members like some sort of odd pyramid scheme? Does anyone know where, roughly, the posts about that are? Are there sources talking about this elsewhere online? I'm not having much luck with Google...
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Dec 17, 2015 02:34
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Artificer posted:I recall reading in this thread something about how Chinese banking employees are underpaid, but their family is happy for them because of the "guanxi" it gets them? And something like how they are encouraged to open up accounts for their family members like some sort of odd pyramid scheme? Possibly my posts here and here. My friend no longer works for Bank of China. The Chinese government had provided Bank of China management with information about all travel documents (passports, HK or Taiwan visas) that employees held, and management were insisting that they be surrendered or they'd be blacklisted for travel. It was the last straw.
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Dec 17, 2015 06:03
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Trammel posted:Possibly my posts here and here. Hoooooooooly loving moly.  Thanks.
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Dec 17, 2015 06:35
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Artificer posted:I recall reading in this thread something about how Chinese banking employees are underpaid, but their family is happy for them because of the "guanxi" it gets them? And something like how they are encouraged to open up accounts for their family members like some sort of odd pyramid scheme? To add to this, banks are seen as stable institutions where you get paid every month. It's very common that people don't get paid for months at a time in China and having a steady paycheck is seen as being great, even if it isn't that much.
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Dec 17, 2015 13:08
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Trammel posted:My friend no longer works for Bank of China. The Chinese government had provided Bank of China management with information about all travel documents (passports, HK or Taiwan visas) that employees held, and management were insisting that they be surrendered or they'd be blacklisted for travel. It was the last straw. I don't understand. Management wanted employees to hand over their passports or else...?
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Dec 17, 2015 15:56
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Grundulum posted:I don't understand. Management wanted employees to hand over their passports or else...? Yeah, why the travel restrictions? Concerns about capital flight?
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Dec 17, 2015 16:04
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Trammel posted:Possibly my posts here and here. So is China just trying to cover a financial crisis or is this part of the whole 'Prosecute people who made money on China's financial crisis?'
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Dec 17, 2015 16:39
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CommieGIR posted:So is China just trying to cover a financial crisis or is this part of the whole 'Prosecute people who made money on China's financial crisis?' Yes
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Dec 17, 2015 16:51
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CommieGIR posted:So is China just trying to cover a financial crisis or is this part of the whole 'Prosecute people who made money on China's financial crisis?' Basically. The whole world is about to enter a recession, China is going to hit some pretty heavy turbulence, and Xi/Li are puffing out their chests. Now zerohedge would say this is the precursor to total global financial collapse but I think it's just another lovely trough in the cycle...
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Dec 17, 2015 21:35
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blueyedevil posted:Now zerohedge would say this is the precursor to total global financial collapse but I think it's just another lovely trough in the cycle... I think the common agreement is that it'll hurt, but not a global financial collapse for sure. I think a lot of governments like Germany, US, France, UK have been expecting a Chinese recession for some time.
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Dec 17, 2015 21:38
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The UK is actually unironically expecting China to grow exponentially forever.
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Dec 17, 2015 21:42
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Fojar38 posted:The UK is actually unironically expecting China to grow exponentially forever. Compared to the UK, it will
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Dec 17, 2015 21:58
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blueyedevil posted:Now zerohedge would say this is the precursor to total global financial collapse but I think it's just another lovely trough in the cycle... Wow, that's a stunning new take from zerohedge.
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Dec 17, 2015 22:16
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blueyedevil posted:Compared to the UK, it will all economies grow exponentially, that's how growth is measured
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Dec 18, 2015 01:13
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Grundulum posted:I don't understand. Management wanted employees to hand over their passports or else...? Exactly. And these are for your average bank tellers who earn maybe ￥5000 / month. If you want to acquire a passport while you're employed, I'm told the government requires letters of approval from your employer. Similar if you're a student.
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Dec 18, 2015 01:16
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CommieGIR posted:So is China just trying to cover a financial crisis or is this part of the whole 'Prosecute people who made money on China's financial crisis?' There's probably no one coherent reason. But this policy reaches down the average bank teller in a 3rd tier city. There's lots of stories & gossip in the industry about employees who've committed fraud and then escaped the country, so that's one assumed reason. Still, this is the industry that had a fake bank in Nanjing that scammed depositers of 200 million RMB, "lost" over 10 million of deposits at ICBC, transfers money out of accounts without approval and 15 years is too long to keep records of deposits. Sources are all ChinaSmack, but from what I've heard, I don't doubt them.
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Dec 18, 2015 01:23
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Fojar38 posted:The UK is actually unironically expecting China to grow exponentially forever. Well the UK needs someone to keep its nuclear power plants in responsible hands for when Jeremy 'Red Terror' Corbyn gets into power.
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Dec 18, 2015 02:08
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Well this is mess up on many levels. Social Credit
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Dec 23, 2015 07:27
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/china-s-slowdown-in-context?cmpid=googlequote:While plenty of ink has been devoted to China's slowdown this year, the world's second-largest economy is still on track to grow somewhere close to 7 percent. I know journalism is really poo poo but how did it never come up that hey, that 7% number is probably complete bullshit?
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Dec 28, 2015 05:41
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Some people want to believe China's GDP numbers for various reasons and so they treat them as real.
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Dec 28, 2015 09:28
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http://www.thestreet.com/story/13407258/1/china-faces-2016-crisis-as-bad-as-u-s-mortgage-meltdown.html How reliable/bullshit is this? I just saw it today and I'm not familiar with the source.
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Dec 29, 2015 08:47
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themrguy posted:http://www.thestreet.com/story/13407258/1/china-faces-2016-crisis-as-bad-as-u-s-mortgage-meltdown.html It's been expected for a while. The government keeps bailing out the markets and has been somewhat successful on holding things off. It does seem like it's reaching a point though where the government throwing money at the problem won't be able to save them as well as it has been due to the economic slowdown. I doubt they're heading towards an economy destroying catastrophe, more an economy handicapping one like what happened to Japan at the end of the 80's.
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Dec 29, 2015 13:15
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