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shut the gently caress up gampy
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Dec 19, 2015 09:44
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Feral_Shofixti posted:His analysis is based on the 40 years of existing data on the modern primary system, combined with the fact that this early in the cycle, polling is essentially a red herring. If Trump is still flashing numbers like this after Iowa (and probably NH), we can talk about legitimate odds. Trump's two major political endorsements up to this point are David Duke and Vladimir Putin. I'm more confused about the notion that Jeb! is a favorite to win than I am the notion that Trump can't win. Pretty much no one likes Jeb! other than a small number of rich corporate and neocon donors. His favorability numbers are terrible even in comparison to someone like Romney who wasn't exactly loved by the base, his poll numbers have gotten consistently lower throughout the entire cycle and now average around 4%. He has zero charisma or political skill and constantly says mind-bendingly stupid things for a Republican candidate or any candidate running for President to say. Even his precious endorsements are relatively modest in number and come mostly from months ago before his campaign had entirely imploded, this is something that even Nate Silver has acknowledged.
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Dec 19, 2015 09:58
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MaxxBot posted:I'm more confused about the notion that Jeb! is a favorite to win than I am the notion that Trump can't win. Pretty much no one likes Jeb! other than a small number of rich corporate and neocon donors. His favorability numbers are terrible even in comparison to someone like Romney who wasn't exactly loved by the base, his poll numbers have gotten consistently lower throughout the entire cycle and now average around 4%. He has zero charisma or political skill and constantly says mind-bendingly stupid things for a Republican candidate or any candidate running for President to say. Even his precious endorsements are relatively modest in number and come mostly from months ago before his campaign had entirely imploded, this is something that even Nate Silver has acknowledged. Yeah that's a point that more people should be making. Jeb's running total is bigger for now, but if you look at the derivative of the endorsements Rubio is beating him at a higher rate than he is in the polls(!)
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Dec 19, 2015 10:02
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i don't think the endorsement race means anything at all at this moment, which is the only moment any of us exist in after all if you look at 538's endorsement primary page they have a graph of the 2016 candidates' trajectories compared to past winners - even jeb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, the leader, is far below any past winning precedent (nobody wants to endorse yet - a possible sign that a historically unprecedented endorsing effect will hit in the future, it could be argued), and i feel like that makes it perhaps as of yet even more irrelevant than the polls, which at least have a graph of the pearson's r showing more than zero correlation with ultimate results that's been posted (the 'days since thanksgiving' graph that's also invalidated to some unknown degree by the primaries having moved dates across the campaign cycles in the sample) on the other hand hillary is running well above any of the other lines 538 has chosen to grace us with. she seems to have the endorsements more than half of the house+senate+governor democrats in existence. if i had any gumption id look into more local democrats to see if she literally has the endorsements of a majority of elected democrats in existence. probably not, yet
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Dec 19, 2015 10:20
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Ebb with Jeb.
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Dec 19, 2015 11:11
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I think Nate's early prediction could still turn out right, if Scott reenters the race
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Dec 19, 2015 11:25
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this is exactly like that one post in a photoshop thread. you know the one i'm talking about, that one where the poster says he "had to do it" and contributes the least funny, most played out beaten dead horse meme that's gone from being tired to outright loathsome. jeb is that guy.
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Dec 19, 2015 12:51
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MaxxBot posted:I'm more confused about the notion that Jeb! is a favorite to win than I am the notion that Trump can't win. Pretty much no one likes Jeb! other than a small number of rich corporate and neocon donors. His favorability numbers are terrible even in comparison to someone like Romney who wasn't exactly loved by the base, his poll numbers have gotten consistently lower throughout the entire cycle and now average around 4%. He has zero charisma or political skill and constantly says mind-bendingly stupid things for a Republican candidate or any candidate running for President to say. Even his precious endorsements are relatively modest in number and come mostly from months ago before his campaign had entirely imploded, this is something that even Nate Silver has acknowledged. Theoretically, Jeb still has a decent path to the nom. Right around this point in 2008, McCain was in the low teens nationally, dead in Iowa and in the mid teens in NH: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/2008_republican_presidential_nomination-2741.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008 The problem with comparing the two is that John McCain was a certified war hero whom the press loved while Jeb is the most milquetoast candidate in a field with enough scrubs to start a TV show.
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Dec 19, 2015 13:28
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MaxxBot posted:I'm more confused about the notion that Jeb! is a favorite to win than I am the notion that Trump can't win. Pretty much no one likes Jeb! other than a small number of rich corporate and neocon donors. His favorability numbers are terrible even in comparison to someone like Romney who wasn't exactly loved by the base, his poll numbers have gotten consistently lower throughout the entire cycle and now average around 4%. He has zero charisma or political skill and constantly says mind-bendingly stupid things for a Republican candidate or any candidate running for President to say. Even his precious endorsements are relatively modest in number and come mostly from months ago before his campaign had entirely imploded, this is something that even Nate Silver has acknowledged. Remember when people were using the unfavourables argument for why Trump had no chance? Or his constant "gaffes"?
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Dec 19, 2015 13:38
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Adar posted:Theoretically, Jeb still has a decent path to the nom. Right around this point in 2008, McCain was in the low teens nationally, dead in Iowa and in the mid teens in NH: Please use a relevant primary example, not one where (almost) every candidate held elected office. Maybe something where a reality tv star dominated the polls for ~6 months straight and the 2nd place guy burned every single bridge within his party. Oh there isn't one?
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Dec 19, 2015 13:47
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Pleasant Friend posted:I think Nate's early prediction could still turn out right, if Scott reenters the race Giving walker a 28% chance to win the nomination does not mean that Silver thought Walker would win the nomination.
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Dec 19, 2015 13:49
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I dont get this obssession with saying 538 has mo grasp.of reality. Nate's own stuff (the 6 stages of doom for trump article) has trump past the first 2 tests and sitting on ~6.25% chance to win, which seems pretty reasonable, and we haven't had an election yet soooooo.
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Dec 19, 2015 13:53
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Feral_Shofixti posted:Donald Trump is a national treasure. He should be locked in an airless glass case? Harsh, imo.
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Dec 19, 2015 13:55
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His case will make Lenin's look like trash though.
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Dec 19, 2015 14:55
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Adar posted:Theoretically, Jeb still has a decent path to the nom. Right around this point in 2008, McCain was in the low teens nationally, dead in Iowa and in the mid teens in NH: That's an accurate description of where Rubio is running right now in the race, not where Jeb is. Jeb's far worse off than McCain ever was.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:17
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Adar posted:Theoretically, Jeb still has a decent path to the nom. Right around this point in 2008, McCain was in the low teens nationally, dead in Iowa and in the mid teens in NH: The key word here is "teens," polling levels Jeb hasn't seen in six months.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:23
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Montasque posted:Ron Paul has a very special message - Donald Trump is an "establishment" candidate: He doesn't even want to abolish the IRS or privatize law enforcement.  Ron Paul needs to move over and accept that the Internet has found a new hero.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:31
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That Cruz image would make the best avatar ever.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:32
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 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3hB3iOQKjY
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Dec 19, 2015 15:37
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E: beaten! “In the spirit of the upcoming holiday, we are excited to bring a Cruz family Christmas into the homes of SNL viewers in Iowa,” she told the website. “Ted is a long time fan of SNL, so the chance to film his own SNL-style commercial was an opportunity we couldn’t pass up!”
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Dec 19, 2015 15:45
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an actual political ad posted:You probably hate Christmas... and America We live in the dumbest timeline
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Dec 19, 2015 15:48
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God drat Cruz is such an unlikeable try hard piece of poo poo.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:49
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Jeb! can take on the Donald and ISIS, two completely similar things that require the same skills. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqpK4NVuIV4
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Dec 19, 2015 15:55
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Pleasant Friend posted:I think Nate's early prediction could still turn out right, if Scott reenters the race Some solid predictionating bros, it's going to be Jeb or Walker for sure. One of the good things of the Trumpening is that it's taken the smug punditocracy down a peg.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:57
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I feel so bad for his family
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Dec 19, 2015 15:59
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Ted Cruz heard u guys like Star Wars? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu_hkbBueOg
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Dec 19, 2015 16:00
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Phlegmish posted:Some solid predictionating bros, it's going to be Jeb or Walker for sure. A 44% chance of it being neither Jeb! nor Walker is exactly the same as it "for sure" going to be Jeb! or Walker. Also these odds being set months ago and having "totally subjective" in the headline is completely meaningless
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Dec 19, 2015 16:05
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Montasque posted:E: beaten! Wait, is this how he's cashing in his Equal Time poo poo?
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Dec 19, 2015 16:05
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Here's a thread for tonight's debate: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3756570
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Dec 19, 2015 16:07
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Gonk is right!!! Hard to decide if it's real or satire so that prob means he's doing it right. So edgy, Ted! memy posted:We live in the dumbest timeline Nice to think that somewhere in the multiverse there's a timeline that isn't as retarded.
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Dec 19, 2015 16:08
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quadrophrenic posted:Wait, is this how he's cashing in his Equal Time poo poo? drat!
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Dec 19, 2015 16:13
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memy posted:A 44% chance of it being neither Jeb! nor Walker is exactly the same as it "for sure" going to be Jeb! or Walker. Well, Nate Silver isn't even the worst of the bunch. At least he's willing to adjust his predictions in light of new information. But check out this joker 'Harry' giving Trump a -10% chance. You can't do that, Harry!
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Dec 19, 2015 16:14
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At least it appeals to production values voters.
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Dec 19, 2015 16:57
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Auditing St. Nick: A thing that is supposed to be good. Or is this boo IRS bad and not an 'audit the fed' thing?
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Dec 19, 2015 16:59
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More Cruz missiles: https://youtu.be/poaCXJYH5ZU Gang of 8 wanted to let ISIS into the US!
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Dec 19, 2015 17:03
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Montasque posted:Looks like Rubio blew the audition: Hahahaha. I loving KNEW it. When I first heard about Trump meeting Adelson, I thought "why would he do that, his 'I'm not bought' selling point is one of his greatest strengths against literally every other GOP rival AND Hillary Clinton." The only explanation that I could come up with was maybe Trump wanted his support, and part of his pitch was "support me by NOT giving ANYONE any money." Trump gets and thus denies people like Rubio Adelson's support, Trump keeps his campaign free from big money donors, Trump can easily sell Adelson on backing Trump with the hook that it won't cost him a dime.
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Dec 19, 2015 17:04
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Montasque posted:Looks like Rubio blew the audition: Looks like Trump's visit paid off. Adelson and his wife did like his two biggest threats.
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Dec 19, 2015 17:05
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Woah, turns out that thing I said would be a problem for Trump is a problem for Trump.quote:Mr. Trump’s Iowa director predicted that he would recruit a leader for each of the state’s 1,681 Republican precincts by Thanksgiving. Instead, the first major training session for precinct leaders, heavily promoted in emails and conference calls, drew only about 80 people to West Des Moines last weekend, with about 50 participating online.
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Dec 19, 2015 17:07
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Forums Terrorist posted:Remember when people were using the unfavourables argument for why Trump had no chance? Or his constant "gaffes"? They got better the more Trump campaigned, Jeb!'s have gotten worse as he campaigns. Trump's "gaffes" were things that the base generally agrees with, Jeb! on the other hand usually manages to alienate pretty much all parts of the political spectrum with his idiotic statements. Even not considering those things, that argument was made about Trump back in like July. A month and a half is a short time to fix Jeb!'s "everyone hates him" problem even if he did have the skill to do it. MaxxBot fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Dec 19, 2015 |
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Dec 19, 2015 17:09
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Joementum posted:Woah, turns out that thing I said would be a problem for Trump is a problem for Trump. https://youtu.be/wxlhyX-4qKI
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Dec 19, 2015 17:11
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