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89 posted:So, how far overdrafted is David Johnson gonna be next year? Dunno, but I'm keeping him for a 13th!
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Dec 31, 2015 19:50
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89 posted:So, how far overdrafted is David Johnson gonna be next year? He'll be a CJ Anderson sort of top of the 1st/early 2nd I'd guess. Then Palmer will get injured in the first three games and their entire offense will go down the tubes.
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Dec 31, 2015 20:02
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I'd say gurley and bell are clear cut top 2 rbs going into next year. I think you can make a reasonable case for David Johnson to be one of the next rbs off the board but I would be hard pressed to take him over a top wr or maybe even gronk.
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Dec 31, 2015 20:09
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Not AP, #2 RB (in 1ppr) who played every game this season and did very well? Or is he retiring or something? I'd rank next year's RBs: Bell Peterson Gurley Martin Lynch Charles* Foster** Freeman Miller Woodhead *Assuming he claims a 100% starter job on a team, which given what the Johnsons did after he was injured, I don't know if that's a certainty. *Assuming he's still a Texan next year; he could move up the chart if he is healthy and on a better team? Everyone subject to health and team situation of course, but that's just a stab at the top 10 as I see it, and I put Peterson pretty solidly at #2 with an argument for #1 based on Bell's injury history. I don't put David Johnson on the list at all, because if Charles is back and healthy, at best they both wind up in a timeshare, but it seems more likely to me that one or the other gets traded. I also vacillated about putting Hyde on the list; depends too much on what happens in SF during the offseason. If he gets the 100% bell cow starting position again like he did this year before injury, I'd rank him above woodhead. Also a strong argument can be made against or for Miller that depends on what Miami does with its coaching staff. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Dec 31, 2015 |
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Dec 31, 2015 20:34
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A healthy Arian Foster you crack me up Leperflesh
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Dec 31, 2015 20:40
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Leperflesh posted:I'd rank next year's RBs: David Johnson is a Cardinal, you're thinking of Charcandrick West with Charles. Also after picking up Knile Davis this year I refuse to touch the KC RB situation during the draft unless it's a late flier on one of their backups. Where do you all think Rawls will be picked?
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Dec 31, 2015 20:43
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I'm not touching Foster next year unless the value is too good to pass up. Like 5th round and after.
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Dec 31, 2015 20:45
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Arrington's got one more year on his (very affordable) rookie contract. Considering Chris Johnson kept a decent workload going right up until his injury despite sharing time with Arrington AND D Johnson, I think David Johnson will probably produce enough to justify a 2nd round pick even if he's sharing time with an Arrington who manages to stay healthy the entire year. edit: Rawls could be my 1st overall or a late round Lynch handcuff depending on what Lynch does in the playoffs and offseason. Who knows.
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Dec 31, 2015 20:52
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Leperflesh posted:Not AP, #2 RB (in 1ppr) who played every game this season and did very well? Or is he retiring or something? AP will be a tricky player to nail next year. He's leading the league in carries this year by a fair margin, which obviously is a huge reason why he's the #2 fantasy rb, plus whatever workload he ends up taking on in the playoffs. I think there is enough of a chance that next year AP starts to taper off, vikings let bridgewater start to take over the offense, or the vikings decide to give AP a lighter workload during the season and play McKinnon more that I think there a fair amount of risk in taking him early. Is he a riskier pick than Rawls, David Johnson, or any of the other hot young rbs that will go early in the draft? Hard to say at this point but in general I much prefer gambling with younger running backs than older ones coming off 300+ carry seasons.
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Dec 31, 2015 21:21
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There doesn't appear to be a Start/Sit thread for Week 17 because most smart leagues have already finished. Unfortunately for me I'm in a stupid league so I have to put together a lineup. Only issue is my RB2 with Draughn injured, here's my choices: Half PPR Bilal Powell @Buf Gio Bernard vBal Artis-Payne vTB DuJuan Harris vStL Rashad Jennings vPhi (I grabbed all the RBs I could off waivers since my WRs are pretty much on lockdown) Powell seems like the best choice but it looks like he might not play this week so assuming he's out, which of the other 4 would you start?
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Dec 31, 2015 21:30
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#2 Seed on the Left (me) and #1 seed on the right. He is only one of the two people I lost to all season and here we are in the finals goons reassure me that I have a chance here  
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Dec 31, 2015 21:43
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Mr. McGibblets posted:#2 Seed on the Left (me) and #1 seed on the right. He is only one of the two people I lost to all season and here we are in the finals goons reassure me that I have a chance here My work thinks tinypic might be an adult website so that image doesn't work for me but I'm sure you'll be fine.
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Dec 31, 2015 21:49
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LmaoTheKid posted:I'm not touching Foster next year unless the value is too good to pass up. Like 5th round and after. Didn't he rupture his Achilles or something far more brutal than an ACL tear? I think a 5th will be too much.
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Dec 31, 2015 23:12
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RVProfootballer posted:Didn't he rupture his Achilles or something far more brutal than an ACL tear? I think a 5th will be too much. Achilles. I don't see drafting Foster at all next year. I have to think Langford stands a chance at being up there. Forte's a UFA and I don't see them making a big push for a 30 year old RB, especially given the trade rumors in October. As good as Woodhead was this year, I can't see taking him as a top 10 RB next year. That depends on the coaching situation in San Diego, I suppose. The few games he was just completely shut out of the game late in the season are worrying.
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Jan 1, 2016 00:19
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Here are the top 10 RBs in half PPR this year: Devonta Freeman: Kyle Shanahan has found his bellcow. Likely early first rounder. Adrian Peterson: 31 but seemingly inhuman, I think people will still draft Peterson in the early first. DeAngelo Williams: 33 is not exactly a good age for RBs. Lamar Miller: The RB4 in spite of Miami's coaching, I'd say he'll be a 2nd rounder next year. Doug Martin: Oh look, Muscle Hamster is back. Late first / early second. Todd Gurley: First rounder, easily. Danny Woodhead: 31 and who the gently caress knows what will happen to San Diego next year. Avoid. David Johnson: A high risk RB1 that will likely see the first or second round. Chris Ivory: 28 next year. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets stigma sticks and he falls to the third. Mark Ingram: 27 but he'll still be attached to the shitshow that is New Orleans. Probably will fall to the third/fourth.
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Jan 1, 2016 00:46
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Amergin posted:David Johnson is a Cardinal, you're thinking of Charcandrick West with Charles. drat, you're right. I was conflating the West/Ware situation vs. the Johnson/Johnson situation. David might be the bellcow next year, or he might share time or even be second to CJ2K next year. If he's Arizona's bellcow back I'd put him into my list around fourth or so. Papes posted:AP will be a tricky player to nail next year. He's leading the league in carries this year by a fair margin, which obviously is a huge reason why he's the #2 fantasy rb, plus whatever workload he ends up taking on in the playoffs. I think there is enough of a chance that next year AP starts to taper off, vikings let bridgewater start to take over the offense, or the vikings decide to give AP a lighter workload during the season and play McKinnon more that I think there a fair amount of risk in taking him early. Is he a riskier pick than Rawls, David Johnson, or any of the other hot young rbs that will go early in the draft? Hard to say at this point but in general I much prefer gambling with younger running backs than older ones coming off 300+ carry seasons. True that AP is coming off a 300 carry season... but he also didn't play in the 2014 season, and there's no particular sign that he's picked up injuries or is tired. Basically all running backs you'd take in the first round are bellcow backs who see tons and tons of snaps, and that means they're subject to injury. The ones you take in the top five especially so, because they're bellcows on run-first offenses. I don't see a way around that, really: either you're taking a guy exposed to that level of wear and tear, or you're taking a guy who hasn't got the kind of weekly safe floor and high ceiling that deserves an early first round pick.
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Jan 1, 2016 00:55
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My early top-12 for next year in full ppr: Bell Peterson Charles Lewis Gurley* Ingram Freeman McCoy Lynch Ivory Martin Foster *Would be higher on talent, but I can't see a situation where either his line or his quarterback is significantly improved. For all that we bemoaned running back chaos this year, that was nearly all injury-related. Here was the preseason ppr rankings on fantasypros: Bell Peterson Charles Lacy CJA Forte Lynch Forsett Hill Murray (Foster was a late 1st/early 2nd before his injury) And here was the per-game ppr scoring rate for the year: Freeman Charles Foster Bell Lewis Ingram Peterson Forte Gurley Woodhead That's five top-10 talents that performed at a top-10 level when starting. Only three top-10 rated WRs managed to perform at a top-10 level: Julio, AB84, and OBJ. The other seven top-10 WR picks finished significantly below that (though AJ Green and Alshon got close). We were as good as usual at identifying who the best RBs were (i.e. ~50% bust rate), but they just got hurt. We were more wrong than usual about the best WRs, they just got hurt less.
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Jan 1, 2016 01:31
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Forever_Peace posted:My early top-12 for next year in full ppr: Is this assuming all are healthy and on their current team, or what? I'd struggle to rank Lynch and Foster so highly given the uncertainty in both of those factors, along with general age/wear and tear.
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Jan 1, 2016 01:57
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Forever_Peace posted:My early top-12 for next year in full ppr: Forever_Peace posted:Only three top-10 rated WRs managed to perform at a top-10 level: Julio, AB84, and OBJ. The other seven top-10 WR picks finished significantly below that (though AJ Green and Alshon got close).
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Jan 1, 2016 02:41
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cheese posted:Ya, Gurley isn't that high for me. The split with Austin is worrying and the team is just too awful. Same with Ivory - Powell is coming on too strong and I don't know if the team is good enough to sustain two top RBs. I don't think we know yet if Lynch is done and I don't want to go anywhere near Foster. He was a 3rd rounder.
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Jan 1, 2016 02:43
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:He was a 3rd rounder. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Here are the top 10 RBs in half PPR this year: Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Lamar Miller: The RB4 in spite of Miami's coaching, I'd say he'll be a 2nd rounder next year. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Todd Gurley: First rounder, easily. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:David Johnson: A high risk RB1 that will likely see the first or second round. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Chris Ivory: 28 next year. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets stigma sticks and he falls to the third. cheese fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Jan 1, 2016 |
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Jan 1, 2016 02:56
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What am I missing with Coleman? He looked nowhere as good as Freeman after he got hurt. He would leave yards on the field and get long runs on wide open holes. And Gurley is going to be a top-five RB and an easy first rounder. The line is only going to get better (I know they drafted a poo poo ton of OL rookies) and you can't get much worse at QB there.
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Jan 1, 2016 03:22
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cheese posted:Not worried at all about Austin or that bad team? Gurley wound up a top RB with that same situation and missing the first 4 games. Austin may vulture a TD or two, but he's a gadget player, not someone who's going to wind up with a ton of carries.
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Jan 1, 2016 03:23
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cheese posted:Ya probably WR 12-14 or so in most leagues. To be clear, when I talk about draft position I don't necessarily mean where I would pick them up. That's where I think their ADP will be. As for your responses; Coleman didn't look terribly impressive, I will absolutely be targeting Miller next year, Austin doesn't scare me, I have no clue what to make of the Arizona backfield, and Powell could be a very interesting pickup but I think Ivory will be the perceived bellcow.
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Jan 1, 2016 03:29
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Gurley sucked the last 2 months. I benched him in the playoffs.
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Jan 1, 2016 03:31
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Leperflesh posted:David might be the bellcow next year, or he might share time or even be second to CJ2K next year. Although they leaned on Chris Johnson a lot (5th in rush attempts per game), it wasn't because CJ2K is the most talented RB on the team. It was because he was the most experienced (and/or most healthy; Arrington). David Johnson is bigger, better, and proven. The Cardinals certainly don't NEED Chris Johnson.
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Jan 1, 2016 03:35
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Spoeank posted:What am I missing with Coleman? He looked nowhere as good as Freeman after he got hurt. He would leave yards on the field and get long runs on wide open holes. I think Coleman would be better in a stretch offense where he needs to make a few moves East-West before making his cut. Freeman is definitely the superior one-cut runner, which is why he is fits that offense better. I actually called that one pre-season based on a their respective scouting reports, but I ended up making other (terrible) decisions in the 6th round when I could have had Freeman, instead of listening to my gut.  Then again nobody could have predicted the Atlanta offensive line would become legendary road graders, so hindsight as always is 20/20.
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Jan 1, 2016 03:53
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If your league does 25y = 1pt return yards (like it should), David Johnson was out of the bag long before he took over formally. Same deal with Lockett for that matter. S/T performance seems pretty correlative to offensive career upside.
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Jan 1, 2016 03:58
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Cordarelle Patterson and Devin Hester tho
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Jan 1, 2016 04:09
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Spoeank posted:Cordarelle Patterson and Devin Hester tho Sometimes these things take time or pan our weirdly. Like Tavon Austin.
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Jan 1, 2016 06:36
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Victor Vermis posted:(and/or most healthy; Arrington). Ellington
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Jan 1, 2016 07:39
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Felter Chesthard posted:Ellington Haha, christ. I was trying to find his contract earlier today and kept getting JJ Arrington. Couldn't figure out why. Eventually I figured it out.. and still hosed it up when I went to type his name here.
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Jan 1, 2016 08:01
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I'm commish in a league where the D.Williams stat correction changed the result of the championship match. Naturally there was whining and bickering and many Steve Harvey gifs. The loser ended up just sucking it up, but man, I wish the corrections had been done way earlier to avoid drama.
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Jan 1, 2016 21:50
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Why are we assuming Chris Johnson will be back in Arizona? While his comeback was a great story, he looked pretty drat gassed towards the end even before getting injured. He also turns 31 in September and once his top speed declines (which may have already started), he could fall off a cliff faster than you can say "Maurice Jones-Drew."
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Jan 1, 2016 22:47
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Victor Vermis posted:The Cardinals certainly don't NEED Chris Johnson. Disagree
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Jan 2, 2016 03:45
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Still not ready to share the full analysis*, but here's the top 10 most effective rushers from this year relative to the expected yards given the circumstances (down, distance, field position, quality of the defense, score, quarter, time left, and homefield advantage): 1) Jamaal Charles 2) Dion Lewis 3) Thomas Rawls 4) Spencer Ware 5) Karlos Williams 6) Ryan Mathews 7) Le'Veon Bell 8) Chris Thompson 9) Jerick McKinnon 10) Giovani Bernard This is NOT the same as the people I have the most evidence outperformed expectations, though I did remove the players with a particularly paltry number of carries (Antone Smith with 1 carry and Lance Dunbar with 5 were technically 1 and 2, but that seemed like too limited of a sample to be anything but complete noise). DWill and David Johnson just missed out. Jay Ajayi was about level with Todd Gurley. Abdullah was the next most effective rookie, about even with McCoy. The demarcation between "net positive effectiveness" to "net negative effectiveness" was Lacy and Langford, who both got pretty much exactly the league-average situation-adjusted yards over the course of the season. Melvin Gordon and Zach Zenner were among the worst rookies. *briefly, I used an ensemble of a generalized additive model and a random forest model of about a dozen important situational factors to the past six years of rushes by running backs, using the log of yards gained from 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage as the outcome (where running backs tend to get the ball).
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Jan 2, 2016 18:48
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And here is a Bayesian analysis of rookies in situation-adjusted rushing effectiveness. In contrast to the above list, this DOES reflect the relative samples sizes: we should know more about the rookies that took more carries. 1) Rawls* 2) Karlos Williams* 3) Todd Gurley* 4) David Johnson* 5) Ameer Abdullah 6) Jay Ajayi 7) Charcandrick West 8) Javorius Allen 9) Duke Johnson 10) Jeremy Langford 11) Josh Robinson 12) Cameron Artis-Payne 13) TJ Yeldon 14) Zach Zenner 15) Matt Jones 16) Melvin Gordon 17) David Cobb *Likely an above-average runner. This isn't necessarily the list of guys I would target in dynasty. We're ignoring volume, situation on the depth chart, expected team quality, injuries, improvement, and receiving ability/role. But I think it does do a pretty decent job hashing out who was good this year when the ball was in their hands. Only real surprises for me here was Josh Robinson (expected him to be lower) and Yeldon (expected him to be higher). David Cobb was horrifically bad this year. edit: forgot Langford Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Jan 2, 2016 |
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Jan 2, 2016 19:40
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what database of play/game data are you using? is it free? if you're using python based ML tools I'd be interested in seeing your source sometime. fun stuff.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:49
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zach zenner better than melvin gordon h8rs gon h8
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Jan 2, 2016 20:30
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Damning with faint praise. But good luck Double Z to rise up that depth chart with your 3.5 Y/A. Luckily you'll be on the Detroit Lions and their backfield situation isn't messy at all!
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Jan 2, 2016 20:39
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