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Thanks y'all, guess my team shows luck works better than skill for fantasy, considering I ended up with David Johnson and Jordan Reed being my biggest scorers down the stretch.
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Dec 29, 2015 23:30
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Swarmin Swedes posted:Thanks y'all, guess my team shows luck works better than skill for fantasy, considering I ended up with David Johnson and Jordan Reed being my biggest scorers down the stretch. I kept on getting Jordan Reed for the past two years, and each time he has underperformed. This year I stayed far far away and he had his boom season I expected for the other two.
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Dec 30, 2015 01:02
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FYI, I'm still waiting on Week 16 stat corrections before publishing final stuff. Also, ESPN does not seem to provide me with any ability to lock down teams. Moreover, it's now running in a free agent mode, where you could freely ad any player instantly. I don't see a way to turn that off, either. Fortunately, we've got the spreadsheet, so if anyone fucks up and adds or drops someone, the spreadsheet is the source of truth on that. Meanwhile, I can pay out winnings! If you'd like your winnings paypalled to the same accounts/addresses as you used to pay your dues, that's easiest. If you want a different address, just let me know - PMs or email or whatever. Also, if you'd like me to withhold next year's dues from your winnings, I can do that at the same time and save us a transaction. Otherwise, dues aren't due until shortly before we have our draft. That gives you all summer to Of course, dues will be going up if we decide to move to another host. But not by a lot; if it's like $70, split 12 ways that's an extra $5.83 each. All of the rules are open for discussion. This is still a democracy, so we'll vote on everything. I'm planning on doing some analysis of the IDP scoring; I think it's OK that sometimes an IDP guy scores 25 points, but right now it seems incredibly swingy, and I suspect that quite a few matches this year were won or lost basically because of one IDP guy going off. I also have the impression that the different IDP positions aren't well balanced... right now I believe safeties and cornerbacks are strongly outscoring the other positions, but I want to check that to be sure. I'd also appreciate any feedback as to my own performance as commissioner this year, public or private. I think I'm doing OK, but if anyone's unhappy, I want to hear about it.
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Dec 30, 2015 20:07
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9 LB's in the top 50 vs 3 Safeties and 1 CB for IDP
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Dec 30, 2015 20:45
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Hmm. Maybe it's just the swinginess. I know most weeks when I ranked all players available on the wire by previous-week's scoring, there were always tons of safeties and CBs there. I need to actually do the analysis before I make more guesses, clearly.
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Dec 30, 2015 20:51
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Random safeties and CBs have the potential for a splash individual point day due to the pick 6 factor. One of those and your DB pretty much has a 20+ point day. LBs will be more consistent over a year (~15pt/wk for the best ones) but usually won't get that huge day UNLESS they are already on a team because they are good to begin with.
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Dec 30, 2015 22:20
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I'll take my payout to my paypal address, thanks
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Dec 31, 2015 07:50
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Same paypal works for me -league fees for next year.
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Dec 31, 2015 18:14
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gently caress, I keep forgetting to post in this thread. kazak_Hstan, do you want a payout, or would you prefer a credit against next year's dues? Gyshall, since you didn't specify, I'm assuming you want the full payout.
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Jan 7, 2016 02:05
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Leperflesh posted:gently caress, I keep forgetting to post in this thread. Full payout please
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Jan 7, 2016 03:08
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Did prize payments go out?
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Jan 11, 2016 16:00
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No, I'm sorry: I was trying to get kazak_Hstan's preference and then just send everything at once, and then we lost power over the weekend. I sent him an email yesterday to follow up. You guys shouldn't have to wait any longer, though, so I'll just do both of you right now. Aaaand, I'm an idiot: Swarmin Swedes, I just accidentally subtracted $20 instead of $25 for your dues when I sent you money. So I sent you $140. Gyshall, $80 sent. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Jan 11, 2016 |
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Jan 11, 2016 18:50
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Thanks
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Jan 11, 2016 20:21
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Hi guys! Remember this? MFL is open for the 2016 season, so I started poking around and it looks to me like it can indeed do everything we'd want it to do for us. More importantly, though, there's a 50% off deal for the first time you make your league there, and, another $10 off if you sign up and pay before June 15, you save $20 - which I guess gets halved by the 50% thing, lol. Anyway the cost for the league this year would be $34.98, total. Split 12 ways that's $2.92 each. They also offer discounts if you set up your dues with them and use LeagueSafe to pay them, but I have no idea if that's cool or good or whatever, so I'm ignoring that for the moment. So quick poll: -Planning on returning for 2016? -If so, would you pay $3 this year, and presumably $6/year in the future, to host on MFL and get their full features instead of ESPN? We can also look at the annual dues and adjust them (and the prizes) up or down to compensate, if you guys really don't want to spend more. e. Just in case, I went ahead and created a (free) placeholder on MFL so I can play with all the buttons and knobs. http://www32.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/79286 You may or may not be able to log in or see any of that, since I haven't added anyone as a player yet.
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Feb 24, 2016 21:39
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Reading some reviews and the app looks like it'll do everything I need it to do. I'd be willing to pay more if we can do the waiver claims with your cap space and how much money you have left. Lets start drafting. I already miss football 
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Feb 24, 2016 21:46
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This is mostly just football season entertainment for me so 3/6 bux won't kill me. Site looks clean and appears to do what we need so I am fine with it.
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Feb 25, 2016 00:21
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I'd be down for that.
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Feb 25, 2016 22:40
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I'm planning on being back, and have no objections to the extra cost.
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Feb 26, 2016 03:19
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Okay. It looks like probably a few of the owners have dropped off the thread; I'll send out an email just to be sure we have a strong majority agreement. Not so much about the money, which is a small amount, but that everyone's OK with switching sites. I did a pass at setting up the scoring on MFL. It definitely has much more flexible scoring options, although the interface for setting up scoring rules is... well, it leaves something to be desired. But I've got the hang of it now. I had intended to do some analysis at the end of the season, but instead I think it was nice to take a substantial break from fantasy football for a month. I still want to do that, though, and in particular, put some thought into how we'd like to tweak the IDP scoring. If any of you already have ideas in that area, please feel free to voice them. I also never did get ahold of kazak_Hstan to send him his twenty bux, so that's still on the balance sheet.
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Feb 26, 2016 18:35
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I'm fine with the change
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Feb 26, 2016 18:37
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Hey guys what's going on -Planning on returning for 2016? yes -If so, would you pay $3 this year, and presumably $6/year in the future, to host on MFL and get their full features instead of ESPN? yes
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Feb 26, 2016 20:57
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I'm in for next year and I'm in for MFL.
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Feb 27, 2016 00:58
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fine with me
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Feb 27, 2016 05:56
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Yes Yes
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Feb 27, 2016 06:49
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Alright, we've got to figure out the draft order, IDP scoring, maybe a bigger bench or practice squads to make room for a few new rookies. And just as I am going to dive into IDP scoring the drat ESPN site is down so I can't even comb through it. I don't even know how the scoring is done and all I have to go on is: Spermy Smurf posted:9 LB's in the top 50 vs 3 Safeties and 1 CB for IDP Current scoring is as follows from the league spreadsheet, unsure if it's 100% what ESPN let us do.
With 20% of the top 50 players being defense, 9 LB's and 4 S/CB guys, I don't think it's horribly skewed. The great defensive guys, or the players who had huge anomaly years, jacked up the points. The change I would think to make is maybe make solo tackles 1.25 each (from 1.5) and maybe leave assisted tackles at .75. Possibly drop assisted to .50. That would knock down the top 9 Linebackers quite a bit (I think, unsure since I can't get into ESPN). I have 4 of the top 9 linebackers, so I followed it pretty closely. Dropping solo tackles a bit would drop their points and probably knock them all out of the top 50 scoring. Dropping assisted tackles as well would almost guarantee it. Don't know how that would impact paying for a good linebacker, but it would probably tank the prices. Thoughts? The draft quote:-First four positions are randomly assigned to the worst four teams of the previous season, based on their win/loss record. And without being able to get into the site I can't figure this poo poo out. I know I was bottom 4, so we'll just take the bottom 4, throw them in some randomizer online (with results visible) and call it a day for that part. Practice Squads Do we want practice squads now? Having 4 or 5 rookies/stashes makes a bit of sense to me now that I've actually looked at my roster. I stashed a few guys I think can have decent careers, and if I was to draft Wentz with the #1 thru 4 pick then I don't know who I'd drop. Having another 4 or 5 slots to hold rookies and circulate them into my gameday roster would be excellent. I don't think any of us have 5 or 6 guys they want to drop on their roster. The new site can support this, so it's worth talking about at the very least. Maybe just to bigger benches? We'd have to figure out the cost of the practice squad if we went that route.
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Apr 27, 2016 13:58
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Thanks for the update, Spermy Smurf. Here's my thinking, regarding IDP scoring. I don't actually mind if we have a decent number of IDP players in the top 50 - that just means those players are more valuable. But they'd need to be identifiably good players... that is, they're getting into the top 50 from excellent on-field play, rather than due to random variance. Similarly, my recollection from last year - which might be fuzzy - is that every week we had a handful of defensive backs popping huge scores (20+), basically at random, and those big scores were enough to affect a lot of teams' wins/losses on any given week. And yet, those same DBs weren't placing super high in overall points for the season. In other words, a few big plays happeneing mostly at random were having an outsized affect on the outcome. What I would like to do, if that's the case, is adjust scoring so that IDP guys are consistently relevant rather than randomly relevant. To the extent that any football man can be consistently relevant, anyway: I mean, top ten RBs have terrible weeks and standout weeks too, so there's always going to be variance. But how many RBs score 25+ points two times a year, but then fail to make the top 50 overall? (No, really, let's do some comparisons...) We have lots of granularity in the points that we can adjust. We can definitely drop the scores for tackles if they're just too high. Maybe interceptions are too high (but maybe defended passes should be higher to compensate?) We need to confirm whether TFLs are stacking with sacks, plus tackles; in other words, is a solo sack 4 points (sack) + 2 points (tfl) + 1.5 points (solo tackle) = 7.5 points? If so, that's unintended and probably too many points. Overall though I don't think the IDP stuff from last year was all that far off. We can and should tweak it a little, but mostly my feeling is that it was successful. If you disagree, I want to hear about it, though! Regarding practice/taxi squads: I'm in favor of them. Rookies are notoriously unreliable, a huge percentage of high-round drafted players wind up being total washouts, while there's always a handful of late-rounders and UFAs that turn into stars. Being able to play a fantasy game that involves those longshots is appealing to me, but realistically if you want to be competitive in a given year, you can't be using five of your slots to stash longshot rookies. Having taxi squads will allow us to engage with that part of the game. That said, it is added complexity and work. Based on my investigations from last year, many (most?) leagues with taxi squads have rulesets designed to manage exactly when and how you can promote a player off your squad, plus rules for grabbing players off other teams' squads (such as by offering a salary, which the owning team has to beat/match or else you get the player). And there's the question of exactly what qualifies a player to be on a taxi squad... the NFL's own rules for practice squads are arcane, so my personal preference is not to try to duplicate them but instead come up with something that makes sense for a fantasy league. Now is also a good time to revisit any other rules for the league. Salaries and the annual increases in them, salaries for the rookie/free agent draft, our dues and prize pool, tournament structure, reorganizing the divisions, elections for league officials, etc. And I think we have at least one or two owners who aren't following this thread any more, or answering emails. May have checked out. I never heard back from kazak_hstan about his winnings, for example. When I last posted in February, here's who replied: Spermy Smurf Chen Kenichi Stevie Lee Hixalot Metapod The Zack atomictyler Bloody Swarmin Swedes And include myself, Leperflesh That's 10 of us, so the two who are maybe AWOL are kazak_Hstan and Gyshall. Gyshall at least collected his winnings in January, though. I will send emails out to both of them just to check in and gauge interest for next season, because I'd prefer us to have a full set of owners while making/voting on league decisions. As a reminder, we have rules for all of these decisions: this is a democracy, and anything that changes the rules I intend to put up for vote. The rules for changing rules are also subject to change, if we want!
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Apr 27, 2016 18:26
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 Finally got back into ESPN. Putting this here for posterity. Will start looking at IDP guys, specifically the "one and done" guys that had 2-pick-6's in one game and then nada the rest of the season.
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Apr 27, 2016 21:01
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Spermy Smurf posted:Current scoring is as follows from the league spreadsheet, unsure if it's 100% what ESPN let us do. I dont know what to do about this anymore. I'm going through scoring breakdowns in a lot of matchups. It's a crapshoot, and every time I see someone who blew it up for 30 or 35 points they're always a 'top 6 player' in that position as far as point rank goes. I've found a few that blew it up for a game or two, then got injured and never played again. Kwon Alexander went off for 28pts twice, but otherwise had an average of 12ish, then didn't play the last 4 games of the season. Point Rank: 18th best LB. Telvon Smith went off for 37, 25, and 22. Otherwise was at 15ish every week. Missed 2 games. Point rank: 3rd best LB. Erik Wedel had a few good games of ~17ish, then fell to an average of 7 or 8, but busted two more big games for 19 and 17. Point rank: 31st best Safety. Luke Keuchly put up 15 or 20 every week, with a single anomaly at 8. He was out 4 games. Point Rank: 6th best LB. Aqib Talib: Streaky as hell. 6 weeks of 15-20, and the rest anywhere from 2 to 10. Point Rank: 26th best Safety. Ronald Darby: 6 games of 15-20, higher average than Talib with maybe 10ish a week. Point rank: 9th best CB. Reshad Jones: Blew it up last year. A few 30pt games, rest at 15 or more. Point rank: #1 Safety. The guys who are winning aren't winning with defense. They're winning because Gronk/Eifert/Brown put up 3 or 4x touchdowns in a match. That's what makes the blowouts, it doesn't look like defense has poo poo to do with how good the team is.
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Apr 27, 2016 21:26
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So we're going off of worst records and then PF like the rules stated?  If that's the case: Placeholder Team Name Awful Cougars First Place Syndrome 1017 Brick Squad
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Apr 27, 2016 21:35
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Yeah that looks right. We also have a second pool to randomize, of the three teams that weren't the bottom four, and weren't the top four or the winner of the consolation bracket. They go behind the bottom four in the draft. As for the IDP rankings, I think I might want to do some actual statistical analysis. I think so many safeties (especially) are garbage for fantasy, that having two or three big games puts you into the top ranked safeties points-wise anyway, which makes it an axiom and not actually helpful for determining whether fantasy owners have a strategy that can get them more points vs. it just being down to luck. Spermy Smurf posted:The guys who are winning aren't winning with defense. They're winning because Gronk/Eifert/Brown put up 3 or 4x touchdowns in a match. That's what makes the blowouts, it doesn't look like defense has poo poo to do with how good the team is. Actually I won a lot of games last year by the skin of my teeth, and had a strong feeling that having a selection of high-ranked IDP guys was a big reason why. So I'd look not at games that were big blowouts, but rather, games where one team won by a margin less than the difference between their own starting IDP players and their opponent's IDP players. Or another approach: find the average performance of the four starting IDP players across all league matches in the regular season last year, and then compare any given match's IDP performance and check the difference between average and their score, and the difference between the winner and loser in that match. ...I wanted to show some examples, but when I try to go to our league, I get a page demanding I activate the league first. Which I don't want to do, because it's going to do poo poo like schedule a draft etc. I assume. Do you see something different? e. ahah, I can get there with a direct URL: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leagueoffice?leagueId=1222085&seasonId=2015 Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Apr 27, 2016 |
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Apr 27, 2016 22:06
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OK Here's an example match where the IDP players were very important and the game was won by only 3.4 points. Telvin Smith had the highest score on either team with a 37.8, and Corey Graham put up Ash Ketchum's second-highest score of 27.8, behind only T.Y. Hilton, Telvin Smith and Tom Brady. Corey Graham had nine tackles, plus an interception returned for a TD. So did Telvin Smith, the exact same stats: 9 TT, 1 INT, 1TD. But Graham only got 3 points for passes defended, while Smith got credit for four points worth of stuffs, plus 9 points of passes defended. In that match, it wasn't the big interceptions and TDs that made the difference between winning and losing: it was the fact that Telvin Smith is a linebacker and Graham is just a CB/S. LBs don't usually have as many opportunities for interceptions as a DB does, but they they have similar opportunities for tackles and more opportunities for sacks and stuffs to make up for it. Conclusion? I don't know, it's only one match. But I want to look at a lot of these examples at least.
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Apr 27, 2016 22:22
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Might be easier to add up top 4 the defensive dudes on each team and divide by # of games. I dont see an easy way to rip the box scores to excel so we dont have to manually do it all.
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Apr 27, 2016 23:36
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Well I added up all individual IDP scores by each team for weeks 7, 8, and 9. I figure by then we all knew who our studs were and played them. Results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tELeTD3Thpa_C5sGP2bwj6LFGnX8zLC8secHBzIDwMA/edit?usp=sharing Week 7 Average: 48.45 Week 8 Average:39.42 Week 9 Average: 41.5 It gives us a 3-week average of 43.12 points spread between all 4 IDP positions. Also breaks down each individual persons IDP average for those 3 weeks. Spoiler: I smoke all you chumps by an average of 10pts per week.  Also I placed bottom 4. Yay for no offense...Is this anywhere near helpful? I have no way to compare that to total points scored or anything because I'm very lazy, unorganized, and I have a desk full of work to do starting right now. Edit: About Lepers find in the above post, with the game where IDP scoring really decided the match: The defenses scored the 3rd (McLean) and 5th (Ash) most points that week. If they had scored 1st and 2nd by a huge margin I would say that the defense really hosed with the score, but they were 10pts and 13pts behind the #1 defensive score that week. Spermy Smurf fucked around with this message at 13:21 on Apr 28, 2016 |
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Apr 28, 2016 13:16
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All I know is we should get draft positioning set in stone ASAP. I am interested in moving back into the first round and wondering where everyone will be at. Bah who am I kidding we won't actually draft for 4 months - I miss my FF
Chen Kenichi fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Apr 28, 2016 |
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Apr 28, 2016 17:41
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End of the season is actually when a lot of IDP guys were injured, but it's still useful data I think. Chen, I sent email to kazak_Hstan and I want to make sure everyone's around before we re-open slot trading. I can definitely roll the dice and get our draft order ready, but last year the consensus seemed to be a preference for drafting late (very close to the first week of real games, and after most of the preseason). If some folks aren't really paying attention, it's not a great time to start doing trading... at the very least, I'll want to collect dues before I open things up, because that's the point where everyone is committed to another season. Also, I got an email from MFL and apparently everyone who uses the site has to make new accounts because they've decided to revamp their security system or something. Fortunately I hadn't invited all of you to the league yet, or built the teams, etc. So I'll need to get around to that.
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Apr 28, 2016 17:50
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After Friday we will all know which rookies we really want. I say set the lineups so we can haggle trades for the next 3 months. I also say email everyone to get confirmation that they are alive. I know McLean is alive. A horrible rear end in a top hat, but alive.
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Apr 29, 2016 02:48
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I'm alive!!!
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Apr 29, 2016 06:34
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Spermy Smurf posted:After Friday we will all know which rookies we really want. I certainly will not. Here's my issue: definitely all 12 owners are not paying attention yet. I don't think it's entirely fair to open up the league to trades when some folks aren't around to try to participate (make offers or argue against them). And nobody can trade till they've paid up dues for next year, either. I will do it if everyone checks in and clearly wants to do it, but my preference would be to use this time to discuss rules and points, and not open up things for trading until like August. Collect everyone's dues, make sure we don't have any replacement owners, make sure the teams and setup on MFL looks good, everyone has their accounts and passwords and poo poo, and at that point, open things up for draft pick/player trading etc. I'll also say this: you're a fool if you make significant trades or drops before summer camp and preseason games. Players are still being traded, a handful will get injured, there's huge uncertainty still for a lot of players. I won't stop people from doing it if you guys want, but I think it's a mistake.
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Apr 29, 2016 06:39
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Thats absolutely true, but trading picks wont hurt anything. Have to send a mass email or two to get people back here to read poo poo. Where do you want paypal money sent?
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Apr 29, 2016 10:45
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Checking in
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Apr 29, 2016 14:47
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