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zimboe posted:Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Maybe so, but most people like to have, you know, reasons to believe things, rather than just lacking reasons to disbelieve them.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 13:41 |
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# ? May 18, 2024 23:54 |
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zimboe posted:Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. You also can't prove a positive in this case RE: it being an Iranian bomb. For the moment, the UN report is the biggest case for it not being an Iranian bomb, and your gut is the only case for the test being an Iranian design. I'll side on the UN case of it not being Iran's.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 15:12 |
Onion Knight posted:Hmm, yes. Thank you for posting on the Something Awful forums, Xi Jinping. 7% for all eternity. 5000 years of 7% growth
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 15:36 |
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Republicans posted:So has North Korea completely alienated China by this point? Who's left for them to do business with that would be sad to see their regime go? Smilin Joe Fission posted:If tensions heat up between the US and China over the South China Sea islands or other issues, and the US becomes a lot more interested in that part of the world for whatever reason there's a decent chance of a US-sponsored coup, assassination, or other destabilizing event to take out the current North Korean regime. I'm fairly surprised that it hasn't already happened, but I would guess it's more that the time just hasn't been right than any lack of interest or ability on the part of the US and South Korea. It's also possible that the US may genuinely fear that the situation could spiral out of control into a major war although when has that ever stopped them before. Or as a comedy option- the US has humanitarian concerns about what would happen to the North Korean people in the chaos. (They actually do care on some level, it's just waaaay down the list compared with geopolitical and economic concerns) Here are some things China and the U.S. have in common: They don't want to occupy and police a North Korea that's collapsed into violent anarchy. They don't want the extreme tension between their countries that this situation would create. And they don't want to pay the billions and billions of dollars it will take to rehabilitate North Korea. A reunited Korea is under South Korean administration is not necessarily a staunch U.S. ally, and certainly not an ally against China. Koreans feel positively about the U.S. right now, but the same is true for China, and China is their largest trading partner. as WarpedNaba pointed out, China is amenable to a reunited Korea under South Korean administration. They don't want any more North Korean immigrants coming into China, making it doubtful that they'd annex any part of North Korea unless they thought it was strategically necessary; they would probably continue to enjoy favourable trading agreements for minerals in North Korean territory (since they already have mining agreements with South Korea as well). If you poll South Koreans about reunification, they'll tell you that of course they want it to happen...eventually, someday. Which is the same as not wanting it at all. They don't want to pay for it, and they don't really want to assimilate millions of destitute, diseased refugees who have been raised on Kim propaganda for generations.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 16:20 |
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Halloween Jack posted:If you poll South Koreans about reunification, they'll tell you that of course they want it to happen...eventually, someday. Which is the same as not wanting it at all. They don't want to pay for it, and they don't really want to assimilate millions of destitute, diseased refugees who have been raised on Kim propaganda for generations. Iirc this was the same attitude held by West Berliners. Middle-aged former East Berliners report they're distrustful of government and worry about retirement, pensions and other government funds being equally available for them, while less than half of western Germans feel unification was successful, even though more easterners do in spite of their apparent concerns. Obviously Germany and Korea are in very different situations culturally, economically and historically, but it is always good to check my decadent western privilege when considering why both sides might not think unification is as good an idea as we'd assume it to be based on North Korean squalor.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 16:39 |
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Halloween Jack posted:Wow, there's a lot to unpack here. Reference the flaming sack of dogshit metaphor above. Although if NK has a real thermonuke, it's now a flaming bag of nitro-glycerine.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 16:42 |
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This is me going out on a limb: Since China seems to prefer South Korea to North Korea as a trading partner, the best prospect for a peaceful end to the Kim regime might be China presenting a phase-out to them as a fait accompli.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 16:59 |
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For KJU, something like that may well be suicide. His life is an insane balancing act and a large part of his being alive is probably because it's only marginally better than what would happen if he were to die. To me, a nuke test reeks of desperation, KJU might be feeling his support slipping among hardliners.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 19:17 |
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Gotta wonder how much Chinese aid has been cut for this. Even the pro-Beijing news outlets aren't reporting any happy feelings.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 22:01 |
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Al-Saqr posted:I will never understand how the North Koreans can build hydrogen bombs but can't figure out modern infrastructure like electricity and roads and food for all citizens. A poor economy which was overly dependent on Soviet aid and is not well-integrated with the modern global economy, mostly, with aging infrastructure they no longer have the money to maintain. North Korea has electricity, it's just that most of it is hydropower that goes out every time the rivers freeze over, and the grid that distributes it dates back to the 60s. Similarly, North Korea's food problems boil down to the fact that the country only barely (if at all) has enough arable land to produce enough food to feed the population, and doesn't really have the money to import more, so the slightest disturbance to the agricultural sector (like a drought, a flood, or government mismanagement) kicks off a famine. Smilin Joe Fission posted:All the reasons that China has for keeping the regime in place are reasons that the US would like to see the regime go. A united Korea modeled after the current South Korea would presumably be a strong US ally and a significant regional military power in it's own right. Of course there would be an extremely chaotic transitional period after the regime falls in the North. The really interesting question would be whether China would sweep in and try to install an allied government in the North or even straight up annex all or part of the North during the chaos. US or allied troops right on China's border in a united Korea would be quite a powerful lever for the US and a thorn in China's side. A united Korea coupled with a rebuilt Japanese military would be a powerful counterweight to Chinese ambitions. Of course this assumes the US can stop the Koreans and Japanese from using their fancy new weapons against each other first. A united Korea would have to spend absurd amounts of money and time modernizing the ex-North's infrastructure and training the entire population with the skills they need to participate in the modern economy. In the meantime, it would have to spend even more money supporting the poor starving population not equipped to work in a real modern economy, while simultaneously maintaining most of the aging, decaying Soviet-era infrastructure until it can be torn down and replaced at considerable cost. It'd be an enormous, incredibly expensive project that would be a huge, long-lasting drain on the South Korean economy. Any other country that annexes the DPRK would bear that same cost, and the same is true for any new government set up in the North. That is why no one has overthrown the North Korean regime - because the price tag on that is 25 million new mouths added to the welfare rolls overnight, and an entire country worth of decaying infrastructure that needs to be rebuilt. It's a cost no one - not even South Koreans anymore - really wants to be saddled with.
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# ? Jan 6, 2016 22:11 |
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Main Paineframe posted:A poor economy which was overly dependent on Soviet aid and is not well-integrated with the modern global economy, mostly, with aging infrastructure they no longer have the money to maintain. North Korea has electricity, it's just that most of it is hydropower that goes out every time the rivers freeze over, and the grid that distributes it dates back to the 60s. Similarly, North Korea's food problems boil down to the fact that the country only barely (if at all) has enough arable land to produce enough food to feed the population, and doesn't really have the money to import more, so the slightest disturbance to the agricultural sector (like a drought, a flood, or government mismanagement) kicks off a famine. Wouldn't North Korea's very large mineral deposits make up for this cost?
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 01:14 |
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They ain't that large.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 01:18 |
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LeoMarr posted:Wouldn't North Korea's very large mineral deposits make up for this cost? Only if most of the North Korean population was already dead. I mean yeah, they got plenty of mineral resources, but so does Colorado, and Colorado doesn't require fixing 25 million people's lives and their whole civilization..
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 01:21 |
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WarpedNaba posted:They ain't that large. Im no mineral expert so someone else is going to have to tell me if these are large or not.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 01:33 |
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LeoMarr posted:Wouldn't North Korea's very large mineral deposits make up for this cost? South Korean estimates put it at "up to $6 trillion". Reunification is estimated at "from $500 billion".
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 01:48 |
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Robert Kelly did a series on why Korea unification would be far more disruptive than Germany, which is still seeing stark differences between the two regions. https://asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/korean-german-unification-parallels-1-similarities/
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 01:49 |
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LeoMarr posted:Wouldn't North Korea's very large mineral deposits make up for this cost? So you're looking at huge startup costs to bring the state of their mining operations up to "not provoking an international scandal over treatment of workers" standards. And you're doing this after quelling a state of violent anarchy and while administering North Korea as a special economic zone.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 01:58 |
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Halloween Jack posted:Like the rest of its industry, North Korea's mining is pretty backward, which is part of why, If I'm not mistaken, China actually prefers South Korea to North Korea as a trading partner for minerals. (I don't even want to think about how horrible it must be to be a North Korean coal miner.) Ooooh, the guy that was born, raised and escaped from a Concentration camp told stories about the miners. Half the kids that worked there had missing fingers or feet because the cart above them on the ramp was released and crushed their limbs on the rails (Which they usually used to pull themselves up the ramp). Then there'd be the gas explosions, asphyxiation, cave-ins, the quality of the tools (If you had tools) and so forth. Then, of course, you're a Nork kid wearing rags, eating gruel, catching rats for protein and half-dead from dysentery. God help you if you grow into puberty and happen to be female while the guards are watching. So yeah, as existences go it's not exactly on the higher end of the scale.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 03:09 |
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cross-post from GBS: The output of a fusion reaction is mainly neutrons; that of a fission bomb is mostly X rays. Look for a neutron pulse and radio-activation of other matter to verify if it was a true thermonuke. Neutrons make other stuff hot, especially aluminum. ... Per Rhodes, the mass-energy of the X-ray flux from a good transparent fission primary is equivalent to that of air. Think of a hurricane wind blowing at the speed of light. This is the force that implodes the fusion secondary in a two stage device. It is astrophysical in its intensity. A supernova is faint in comparison. Indeed, uranium and all nuclei heavier than iron (and the gold in your jewelry) are fossil remnants of ancient supernovae, just as fossil fuels are remnants of ancient photosynthesis. ... There's nothing hotter than a bomb made of supernova turds. and THERE ARE FIFTEEN THOUSAND OF THESE FUCKERS ON THIS PLANET What were they thinking? What in the world were they thinking?
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 03:38 |
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zimboe posted:cross-post from GBS: What are you trying to say?
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 03:41 |
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fishmech posted:What are you trying to say? That in the long run, we're probably hosed. And your gold earrings were forged in the heart of an exploding star like Thor's hammer. Weapons get used. ALWAYS. Sooner or later. ... E: Especially by psycho putzim like Kim. Can't we just torch this guy from the air with that new 150 kW fiber laser we got now? He's gotta leave the house at some point. zimboe fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Jan 7, 2016 |
# ? Jan 7, 2016 03:54 |
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zimboe posted:That in the long run, we're probably hosed. pretty much. some terrorists or maybe even an actual country is going to fire a nuke off into a city. i could totally see North Korea blowing up Seoul with a nuke if they could get the delivery system right.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 03:58 |
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zimboe posted:That in the long run, we're probably hosed. No, we're almost certainly not hosed in that way. There's been millions of atomic bombs produced which haven't been used outside tests and probably never will. Dapper_Swindler posted:pretty much. some terrorists or maybe even an actual country is going to fire a nuke off into a city. i could totally see North Korea blowing up Seoul with a nuke if they could get the delivery system right. The good news for us is they're incapable of that until they stop being broke as hell. And if they stop being broke as hell they probably won't give that up to commit suicide by attempting to nuke Seoul.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:02 |
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More likely some crazy idiot will sell a nuclear weapon to Hamas or Hezbollah or something and it'll get set off in Israel. And then the entire rest of the Middle East gets melted into slag by a vengeful Israel.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:03 |
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-Troika- posted:More likely some crazy idiot will sell a nuclear weapon to Hamas or Hezbollah or something and it'll get set off in Israel. And then the entire rest of the Middle East gets melted into slag by a vengeful Israel. true, but the middle east is probably going to melt itself into slag with all the sectarian bullshit. fishmech posted:
maybe, but i could also see one day them just bombing Seoul to poo poo with artillary then trying to zerg rush it with their rickets army. they might just bury nukes then and try to use them as traps.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:08 |
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Dapper_Swindler posted:
They can't "bomb Seoul to poo poo with artillery" because nearly all of their gear can only reach the outer northern suburbs, and that's when they're even functional. If they were able to hike their artillery across the DMZ and up to the mountain ridges ahead (which are part of what makes it really hard for them whap Seoul) then they could do it. But the entire allied forces against NK would have to be asleep or traitors to allow that.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:12 |
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-Troika- posted:More likely some crazy idiot will sell a nuclear weapon to Hamas or Hezbollah or something and it'll get set off in Israel. And then the entire rest of the Middle East gets melted into slag by a vengeful Israel. Yah. My worry exactly. If a nuke producer sells a bomb to some proxy in secret there is now plausible deniability which will delay any counter strike- as the injured party tries to figure out who to hit. But in the case of Israel they may just choose to pull down the whole temple and glass everybody nearby- the so-called Sampson Option- as a sort of payback for the Holocaust. E: And Adios Muchachos. zimboe fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Jan 7, 2016 |
# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:13 |
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Astute geopolitical analysis from forums posters -Troika- and zimboe. Really deep stuff here.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:16 |
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zimboe posted:Yah. My worry exactly. I can see Bibi instantiating the launch now. one hand turning the key to launch, the other tugging on his tiny penis. But honestly i think it depends what terrorist group gets it. ISIS would probaly try to detonate one in europe or a capital city in the middle east.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:18 |
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Juffo-Wup posted:Astute geopolitical analysis from forums posters -Troika- and zimboe. Really deep stuff here. Yah. Fear your future. I'm glad I'm old. zimboe fucked around with this message at 04:22 on Jan 7, 2016 |
# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:19 |
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Juffo-Wup posted:Astute geopolitical analysis from forums posters -Troika- and zimboe. Really deep stuff here. There's a reason zimboe has his red text.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:22 |
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fishmech posted:They can't "bomb Seoul to poo poo with artillery" because nearly all of their gear can only reach the outer northern suburbs, and that's when they're even functional. If they were able to hike their artillery across the DMZ and up to the mountain ridges ahead (which are part of what makes it really hard for them whap Seoul) then they could do it. But the entire allied forces against NK would have to be asleep or traitors to allow that. I was in Seoul a few years ago and half the city seems to be underground. Every building has multiple stories below the surface with strategically-placed air-tight doors and the subway stations are HUGE, stretching for blocks and six lanes wide under the street. They have planned for a bombardment, I think. ... Koreans seem to like to dig tunnels.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:31 |
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Onion Knight posted:There's a reason zimboe has his red text. Bah. I worked hard to earn that red text, normie. ... And I'm not crazy, I'm differently-saned, you pack of non-PC insensitive bigots. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:32 |
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zimboe posted:That in the long run, we're probably hosed. What is it about North Korea discussion that makes it a magnet for waterheads jerking off over retarded Tom Clancy scenarios? We get one of these each and every time a significant news story is released.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 04:56 |
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Halloween Jack posted:What is it about North Korea discussion that makes it a magnet for waterheads jerking off over retarded Tom Clancy scenarios? We get one of these each and every time a significant news story is released. Are we at DEFCON Ford or Baldwin? God help us if we're at DEFCON Affleck...
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 05:01 |
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Halloween Jack posted:What is it about North Korea discussion that makes it a magnet for waterheads jerking off over retarded Tom Clancy scenarios? We get one of these each and every time a significant news story is released. Because NK is run by a nutcase. With nukes. Nutcase + nukes = a Bad Thing. Re Tom Clancy: You better hope life doesn't imitate art in this case.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 05:02 |
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zimboe posted:Because NK is run by a nutcase. With nukes. Nutcase + nukes = a Bad Thing. sorta. its "run" by a dumb kid with something to prove and everything to loose. Pyongyang is a nest of vipers and he has to either kill them or assuage them. all it takes is one mistep and someone ends up dead via flack cannon.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 05:08 |
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Dapper_Swindler posted:sorta. its "run" by a dumb kid with something to prove and everything to loose. Pyongyang is a nest of vipers and he has to either kill them or assuage them. all it takes is one mistep and someone ends up dead via flack cannon. A dumb kid with nukes is even worse. Like a three-year-old with a .40 cal Glock. ... Is it really true he was executing people with a bloody anti-aircraft gun?
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 05:49 |
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Bluedeanie posted:Are we at DEFCON Ford or Baldwin? God help us if we're at DEFCON Affleck... We're currently at DEFCON Baldrick.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 05:51 |
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# ? May 18, 2024 23:54 |
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zimboe posted:A dumb kid with nukes is even worse. Like a three-year-old with a .40 cal Glock. Yeah, I doubt that fat idiot is going to make the Mad Max universe a reality any time soon, mate.
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# ? Jan 7, 2016 05:52 |