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Devian666 posted:This mystifies me. I've gotten pretty accustomed to people having a high (BWM) turnover of cars in the US. In New Zealand the average car age is 14-15 years and we import a lot of second hand cars. Why is there an obsession in the US with selling perfectly good vehicles all the time? We have factories that make cars, instead of importing them thousands of miles across the ocean to an island with a couple million people. That brings the cost of a new one down a little bit.
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Jan 12, 2016 04:33
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flynt posted:An average age of 14-15 years is so foreign to me. My car is 13 years old and I've got plenty of people asking why I don't get a newer one. Like I personally can't think of any adult that I know with an older car than mine. Does everyone in New Zealand buy Singapore's cars once they turn 10 and have to leave the island? Phone knows where things are at. We import huge amounts of Japanese cars. The older the car the higher the annual tax on it (in Japan). So we get them dirt cheap and use them until they are dead. Devian666 fucked around with this message at 04:53 on Jan 12, 2016 |
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Jan 12, 2016 04:49
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Terrorist Fistbump posted:Drive around a working class neighborhood and most cars you see will be 10-15 years old. In rural areas away from metro areas, it's not uncommon to see cars from the 70s and 80s. Yeah, I work with a lot of BWM people and that's probably skewing my perspective a lot. Lately so many people have been talking about how they plan on buying a new car once they finish their loan payments. A recent BWM conversation I overheard at work: One of my coworkers was telling people he finally paid off his 401k loan so he was going to get an extra 70$ a paycheck. Another coworker told him that it wasn't great because now he was going to start getting taxed on that money. First coworker said yeah it sucks but it's not too bad because he checked and it's not going to bump him up to the next tax bracket...
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Jan 12, 2016 04:58
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I live in Portland, Oregon, and there are so many people who BUY USED CARS ONLY that there isn't any actual savings when you buy used. My 2016 Subaru cost $3,500 more than the same lot's 2012 with 40,000 miles on it.
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Jan 12, 2016 05:07
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I live in Portland, Oregon, and there are so many people who BUY USED CARS ONLY that there isn't any actual savings when you buy used. Same poo poo in Seattle for used economy cars like Civics and poo poo, and especially anything Subaru. I don't get it. Who the hell is buying 3 year old used cars with like 30-50k miles on them for 90%+ the value of a new one? Especially when Subarus only come with a 3 year warranty... Are people really so dumb about the "only ever buy a used Honda/Toyota/Subaru it's good with money  " mantra that they don't even look at what a new one costs, or is there something else going on?
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Jan 12, 2016 07:45
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I live in Portland, Oregon, and there are so many people who BUY USED CARS ONLY that there isn't any actual savings when you buy used. I'm car shopping in Portland right now and I've given up. It's especially bad for popular models like Subaru and Volvo. I've started looking in Cali where my last used car came from.
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Jan 12, 2016 08:05
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For BWM: My parents keep asking me [23] for money (recently for $14k): wat do reddit?quote:I am a recent college graduate, currently making $90,000/year. I went to school on a full scholarship, so I don't have any student loans and am able to save a lot of my money every month. First comment is someone looking at his post history, seeing he asked for advice before cosigning a year ago, was told to run away, and ignored everyone  Devian666 posted:Phone knows where things are at. We import huge amounts of Japanese cars. The older the car the higher the annual tax on it (in Japan). So we get them dirt cheap and use them until they are dead. It does go up but not by as significant a cost as you'd think, it's just more likely to be failed in the bi-annual safety inspection* and require new parts/repairs, so most owners can't be arsed and sell it and buy another one. Consequently the old cars you do see in Japan are *really* nice and owned by people pretty passionate about them. The old ones get auctioned off: lots wind up in New Zealand or in wild west countries like Cambodia (dunno how it is now, but ten years ago when I was there it was like 50/50 what side of the vehicle the steering wheel would be on). Australia and Canada get some too, but I don't think they're as lax about it as NZ. Now that some of the more desirable ones are coming within the 25 year rule for the US, I wouldn't be surprised if more don't start showing up there either. It's not just Skylines, a lot of other cars with cult followings came out of 1990's Japan, the keis got their last displacement bump (to 660cc) in 1990, plus there are bikes like the Africa Twin. Russia gets some ex-Japanese cars too, I understand there's a vehicle ferry from Vladavstok that's popular with Russian grey market dealers. My dream vacation would be picking up an ex Japan beater 4WD at auction and driving it across Russia/the 'stans/Europe to the UK. *Over a certain age they require an annual inspection, but it's basically optional in that you can do it yourself and go "yup, no problems".
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Jan 12, 2016 08:06
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Australia has a scheme for enthusiasts to import cars that the manufacturer never imported (Fully sick GT-Rs), and there is some hope that we will open up the rest of the market to Japanese used imports like New Zealand has, but the used car lot lobby is fighting it.
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Jan 12, 2016 09:02
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Moneyball posted:I know I kind of started another car chat derail, but I really can't judge my friend too harshly- Less than two weeks into the new year and we have our first contender for Most Eye-Rolling Humblebrag of 2016! Give him a big hand, folks! Fake edit: And once again it's a "oh man I don't want to start a derail *derails as hard as he can*"
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Jan 12, 2016 09:31
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Jan 12, 2016 09:40
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Cripes. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up selling more tickets than there are combinations of numbers. Everyone I know has caught lottery fever. I threw a buck into the office pool so if everyone ends up retiring I'll be along for the ride.
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Jan 12, 2016 17:03
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flynt posted:A recent BWM conversation I overheard at work: One of my coworkers was telling people he finally paid off his 401k loan so he was going to get an extra 70$ a paycheck. Another coworker told him that it wasn't great because now he was going to start getting taxed on that money. First coworker said yeah it sucks but it's not too bad because he checked and it's not going to bump him up to the next tax bracket... The amount of people who don't understand progressive tax brackets makes me irrationally angry. It's not that difficult people!
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Jan 12, 2016 17:09
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Not a Children posted:Cripes. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up selling more tickets than there are combinations of numbers. Everyone I know has caught lottery fever. The financial manager of my department just mass emailed the entire faculty to invite us to join his powerball pool.
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Jan 12, 2016 17:32
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Pompous Rhombus posted:For BWM: My parents keep asking me [23] for money (recently for $14k): wat do reddit? He's an idiot with an abusive family.
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Jan 12, 2016 17:34
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Weatherman posted:Less than two weeks into the new year and we have our first contender for Most Eye-Rolling Humblebrag of 2016! Give him a big hand, folks! Salty today. I was trying to point out my own stupid decision making after posting about my friend's similar situation. Sure, I didn't need to point out that I've turned the situation around, but that was because I'm embarrassed about the past. Feel free to remember that post for an entire year.
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Jan 12, 2016 17:40
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Moneyball posted:Feel free to remember that post for an entire year. It's what we do! 
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Jan 12, 2016 18:00
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Nail Rat posted:The amount of people who don't understand progressive tax brackets makes me irrationally angry. It's not that difficult people! Doubly so when it's a politician proposing to "simplify the tax code" by eliminating the brackets. The brackets are literally the first section! They take up less than a page! They're way more straightforward than things like "what counts as income"! Aaaaahhhhhh! 
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Jan 12, 2016 18:43
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Who's up for some good old-fashioned fear mongering?http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/01/12/rbs-warns-sell-everything/?mod=e2fbRBS posted:RBS economists have urged investors to sell everything except high-quality bonds, warning of a “fairly cataclysmic year ahead.”
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Jan 12, 2016 19:07
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To be fair, the effect of even relatively simple things like tax credit phase outs make marginal rates confusing to someone who doesn't pay attention to their tax return. I'm in the lifetime learning credit phase out (part time student) so my marginal rate is effectively 50% on $10k, after that it would be 30%.
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Jan 12, 2016 19:17
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"Fairly cataclysmic" is a bit of an oxymoron, isn't it? "Yeah, this downturn is a little bit the end of the world, but chin up it's not over yet!"
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Jan 12, 2016 19:24
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Cataclysmic for other people, who mow lawns and use public transport. Maybe someone already ran the 'you're all bad, horrible people for spending money  ON CREDIT over the (August to January) Christmas period, just look at these numbers someone found about household debt' space-fillers?
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Jan 12, 2016 19:56
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so I could say that I finally figured out what this god damned cube is doing. Get well Lowtax.
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Jan 12, 2016 20:00
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Not a Children posted:Who's up for some good old-fashioned fear mongering? With any luck automation will wipe out some economist jobs at RBS. I know it doesn't really matter, but I'm uncomfortable getting any predictions or financial advice from banks that almost went out of business and/or destroyed the overall economy because of incompetence. Like when anyone from Citibank says anything. BigDave posted:Here comes Cuba. Wolverines!!!
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Jan 12, 2016 20:12
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pig slut lisa posted:Doubly so when it's a politician proposing to "simplify the tax code" by eliminating the brackets. The brackets are literally the first section! They take up less than a page! They're way more straightforward than things like "what counts as income"! Aaaaahhhhhh! We could simplify the tax code a whole shitton by eliminating entire swaths of tax deductions, but boy people would be angry if we did that. 90% of the tax code is ways to reduce tax liability, the actual tax scheme is fairly simple.
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Jan 12, 2016 20:17
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Not a Children posted:Who's up for some good old-fashioned fear mongering? And then joe-schmoe sells off a bunch of shares in a panic and vows not to get back into the market "until things pick back up" and starts heralding the end of times. So, at the end of the day, people end up buying high, and selling low. What a great strategy. I saw this stupidity back in 2001. Then again in 2008. Same old panicky bullshit. melon cat fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Jan 13, 2016 |
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Jan 12, 2016 22:57
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melon cat posted:That's the funny thing about recessions/market corrections. Every time one rolls around (and the one we're going through is right on time, if not overdue) a bunch of dummies come out of the woodwork screaming, "This recession's different!" despite the fact that it's all part of the same cycle.
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Jan 12, 2016 23:20
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An engineer in my office told me that he "bought half the powerball tickets" at a local gas station. I just don't understand.
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Jan 13, 2016 00:25
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Hyperbole? Are they allowed to pre-print tickets?
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Jan 13, 2016 00:30
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You can pick your own numbers for them, I thought, so pre-printing would be pretty bad... Not to mention that you'd somehow have to separate the "paid for" and "not paid for" tickets in case one of them ends up a winner. It's probably hyperbole, unless he managed to burn through half of their printer's ticket paper. My state doesn't participate in the lottery, so it's always "interesting" hearing about how many people will drive miles to the borders to purchase tickets. Reports of 30-minute lines (or more) abound. I just don't get it. Even with the EV over 100% the chances of coming away with anything are still almost nil, and if you remove the huge jackpot the EV is around 15% if not even less. You'd have better results throwing your money in a Megabucks slot and hoping for a win.
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Jan 13, 2016 00:55
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Zamujasa posted:I just don't get it. Even with the EV over 100% the chances of coming away with anything are still almost nil, and if you remove the huge jackpot the EV is around 15% if not even less. You'd have better results throwing your money in a Megabucks slot and hoping for a win.
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Jan 13, 2016 01:27
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I believe someone did the math and if you bought every single combination it would cost like 600 million, enabling you to make a tidy profit of a couple hundred million. Unfortunately, you have to buy tickets in person at a register and it would take something like 9 years to print every number if you printed one every second, so there's no way you could do it.
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Jan 13, 2016 01:34
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Zamujasa posted:I just don't get it. Even with the EV over 100% the chances of coming away with anything are still almost nil, and if you remove the huge jackpot the EV is around 15% if not even less. You'd have better results throwing your money in a Megabucks slot and hoping for a win. The EV will never be over 100% no matter how big the jackpot gets, even before you factor in income tax.
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Jan 13, 2016 01:34
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Subjunctive posted:Hyperbole? have to be a hyperbole I don't think you're even allowed to pre-print, but even if you could why would you put yourself, a dude at a gas station, at greater risk during a robbery. Especially since it takes all of 5 seconds and two button presses to print a ticket.
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Jan 13, 2016 01:45
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Dik Hz posted:The Megabucks slot is over in 10 seconds. Buying a powerball ticket enables up to 4 days of fantasizing about what you'd do with the money. Easily worth $2, if you like that kind of thing. Man, you can fantasise about all kinds of stuff that won't happen for free. Maybe you are the last heir of a distant wealthy relative, and they'll die next week and you'll become a multi-millionaire and let's say a duke too, why not. Maybe you'll find out you're a wizard!
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Jan 13, 2016 01:53
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The grocery store I go to announced over the PA that the Powerball jackpot had hit 1.5 billion and within seconds there were a dozen people in line at the lottery counter 
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Jan 13, 2016 01:59
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Eyes Only posted:The EV will never be over 100% no matter how big the jackpot gets, even before you factor in income tax. The naive EV has, at least. In theory after factoring in tax, with a large enough jackpot even the "real" EV could breach 100%; since the cost of buying every possible number is $600M, you would just have to wait until the jackpot went over double that (plus extra to cover the taxes). Maybe somewhere around $3,000M? This ignores the event of sharing the jackpot, of course.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:18
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Eyes Only posted:The EV will never be over 100% no matter how big the jackpot gets, even before you factor in income tax. Not true. The jackpot grows by accumulating dead money from other people's old losing tickets. There is a break even point where the EV of any ticket is greater than the $2 paid but that precise value is hard to calculate for a variety of reasons including exact tax rates, investment returns, non-random ticket plays (think lucky numbers, anniversaries, etc)
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Jan 13, 2016 02:44
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BEHOLD: MY CAPE posted:Not true. The jackpot grows by accumulating dead money from other people's old losing tickets. There is a break even point where the EV of any ticket is greater than the $2 paid but that precise value is hard to calculate for a variety of reasons including exact tax rates, investment returns, non-random ticket plays (think lucky numbers, anniversaries, etc) To say nothing of the fact that as the jackpot grows, more people buy tickets leading to a higher chance of multiple winners.
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Jan 13, 2016 03:34
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BEHOLD: MY CAPE posted:Not true. The jackpot grows by accumulating dead money from other people's old losing tickets. There is a break even point where the EV of any ticket is greater than the $2 paid but that precise value is hard to calculate for a variety of reasons including exact tax rates, investment returns, non-random ticket plays (think lucky numbers, anniversaries, etc) Naively, yes. Unfortunately the more detailed analysis doesn't play out this way: each $2 ticket add about $0.60 to the cash jackpot, and ticket sales accelerate as the jackpot grows larger. The more tickets sold, the higher the odds you have to split the jackpot, and that's what keeps the EV under 100%. To put it in terms of the current figures: the unclaimed cash jackpot from the last drawing was 589m. A ticket costs $2, so half this value is 294.5m, which is higher than the 1 in 292m odds of winning. So under your hypothesis every ticket purchased today would have over 100% EV just from the leftover jackpot, let alone the extra that's been added since then. ...Except, the jackpot is currently listed as 930m. That implies about 560m tickets have been sold for this drawing. Which means there will be on average 1.92 winners this time around, with an 85% chance of at least one. And given there is at least one, and that person is you, you will on an expected basis get only 59% of the jackpot after accounting for all the probabilities of splits. Which means if you win, your expected cash payout on a 930m cash jackpot is only 549m, which is only a 94% EV. At this point you're probably thinking "well, that goes over 100% when you factor in the non-jackpot prizes." Which it does, but 930m is today's figure. The drawing is tomorrow, more tickets will be sold and each new set of 292m tickets will only increase the jackpot by 178m, lowering your EV. If the jackpot goes up to 1.2b cash tomorrow it'll be 79%. At 1.5b, 64%. TLDR; each ticket sold in the current drawing decreases the overall EV of the jackpot, and sales increase too fast for unclaimed jackpots to bank enough for positive EV. Maybe sales growth is weak enough in smaller lotteries for this to work, but the national ones have always grown fast enough to outpace the effect you describe. e: all this is before taking out taxes, after tax it's even worse e2: the combined EV on the non-jackpot prizes is 16% Eyes Only fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Jan 13, 2016 |
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Jan 13, 2016 03:52
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Boss spent $60,000 from a home equity loan on those new hover boards. Two days later the report came out that they were all catching on fire. Two months later they're still sitting in US customs.
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Jan 13, 2016 04:27
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