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Your expected value math is off, it's still -EV to buy a ticket due to the odds of a split jackpot. It's still +FUNEV though to buy a ticket. edit: also you seem to chop all the prizes in half but still deduct $2 for the ticket EngineerSean fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Jan 13, 2016 |
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Jan 13, 2016 00:40
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im already starting to grow a beard and my hair out and putting on some extra weight so i can be in disguise when iclaim the winning ticket
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Jan 13, 2016 00:58
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EngineerSean posted:Your expected value math is off, it's still -EV to buy a ticket due to the odds of a split jackpot. It's still +FUNEV though to buy a ticket. Not to mention isn't the full prize only if you take the annuity, which a) isn't transferrable to my knowledge, and your chance of dying during receiving it isn't 0 b) because of the net present value concept of money, the money you get later on in the annuity is actually worth a lot less
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Jan 13, 2016 01:04
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Has anybody said yet that if they won Powerball they'd dress up like Mr. Monopoly or Uncle Moneybags or whatever with the mustache and top hat and speak in a clipped mid-atlantic accent and be all "that's what I get for passing Go"? ok cool cause that's what I'd do
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Jan 13, 2016 01:12
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Stefan Prodan posted:Not to mention isn't the full prize only if you take the annuity, which The lump sum cash option will be over $1B by the drawing tomorrow. Even after tax you are talking a half billion easy.
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Jan 13, 2016 01:20
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Howard Beale posted:Has anybody said yet that if they won Powerball they'd dress up like Mr. Monopoly or Uncle Moneybags or whatever with the mustache and top hat and speak in a clipped mid-atlantic accent and be all "that's what I get for passing Go"? the fbi raids your house and discovers that your stacks of $100 bills contain traces of cocaine go directly to jail, do not pass go, do not collect 200 million dollars. assets forfeited motherfucker
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Jan 13, 2016 01:26
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Oh ok, I didn't know what the numbers looked like for lump vs annuity
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Jan 13, 2016 01:27
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MiracleWhale posted:the fbi raids your house and discovers that your stacks of $100 bills contain traces of cocaine yay, I won second prize in the prison beauty contest
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Jan 13, 2016 01:28
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Howard Beale posted:Has anybody said yet that if they won Powerball they'd dress up like Mr. Monopoly or Uncle Moneybags or whatever with the mustache and top hat and speak in a clipped mid-atlantic accent and be all "that's what I get for passing Go"? I hope that you win.
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Jan 13, 2016 01:46
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It's smarter to take the lump sum because the lottery buys government bonds with the rest of the money and over any 20 year period the S&P 500 index has outperformed government bonds. It's still bullshit that they do it that way though, $1.5 billion prize, cash value $900m!!!
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Jan 13, 2016 01:56
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Howard Beale posted:Has anybody said yet that if they won Powerball they'd dress up like Mr. Monopoly or Uncle Moneybags or whatever with the mustache and top hat and speak in a clipped mid-atlantic accent and be all "that's what I get for passing Go"? That would be one hell of a marketing campaign
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Jan 13, 2016 01:59
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Somebody change the thread title
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Jan 13, 2016 02:03
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If I win I'll put a ten million dollar bounty on Osama bin Laden's head. I know he's been dead for years, but I think owning his skull would be baller.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:04
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Three Olives posted:If I don't win and I think we all agree that I would be the most awesome Powerball winner I hope some poor hick that dropped out of high school wins and blows the money in a few years in a well documented and completely spectacular fashion. Like I want them completely penniless in less than 5 years. Let the winner be a super-religious 65-year-old woman and have a televangelist continuously swindle her out of millions upon millions of dollars with schemes and promises that become ever more ludicrous with each passing year. Cut to five years later. She's penniless and sitting in the living room of her unheated single-wide trailer, thinking she's gonna be blessed because she gave more than her fair share to the Lord. And then she freezes to death. 90s Solo Cup fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Jan 13, 2016 |
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Jan 13, 2016 02:06
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Tubesock Holocaust posted:Let the winner be a super-religious 65-year-old woman and have a televangelist continuously swindle her out of millions upon millions of dollar with schemes and promises that become ever more ludicrous with each passing year. Season 3 of Fargo sounding hella good.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:07
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I hope the winner is some smug STEM graduate who bought one single ticket because the expected value was positive
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Jan 13, 2016 02:22
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potee posted:I hope it's some smug STEM graduate who bought one single ticket because the expected value was positive I hope it's me too.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:23
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potee posted:I hope the winner is some smug STEM graduate who bought one single ticket because the expected value was positive I hope the winner is a Mexican immigrant who uses the money to become a self-made narcotrafficante. Cut to ten years later when he's finally in U.S. custody after spending years on the run while his lieutenants fight each other for a chance to take over his drug empire.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:28
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Schroeder91 posted:Just doesn't seem like something worth lying about. Id totally bail on work. Call out indefinitely. At most companies, letting your manager know you have no loyalty to them what-so-loving-ever is usually not in your best interests. Germstore posted:It's good to keep busy, but I can think of about a hundred better ways to keep busy. Really now. Volunteer, take up some sort of creative hobby, go back to school for something you wanted to learn but couldn't spare the time/money... there are plenty of avenues for doing something noteworthy with your life besides traditional jobs. Not to mention most lottery players are working jobs which offer no more opportunity for real fulfillment than watching TV in your underwear.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:40
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Even if I win I'll still have to wake up early tomorrow because I have jury duty. Life just isn't fair.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:51
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I've decided that if I win I will spend all my money to convince Disney to edit Jar Jar Binks into the OT and all future sequels.
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Jan 13, 2016 03:15
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Call in sick to work everyday until they fire you. File for unemployment.
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Jan 13, 2016 03:23
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Let's say you know the winning numbers. From a dream, God told you, aliens beamed it into your brain, whatever. Should you buy the winning ticket? Probably. But you shouldn't stop there. Every ticket your purchase with the 5 regular numbers, but the wrong powerball, nets you 1 million dollars at the cost of 2. With power play, that's 2 million dollars at the cost of 3. If you purchase 1000 power play tickets with the right regular numbers and wrong powerball, that costs 3 thousand dollars and gains you 2 billion, net gain 1,999,996,000.00 before taxes. That's an investment gain of 666666.67%. Sure you'll be in court hell forever as the lottery tries to figure out how you cheated, but when they come up with nothing they'll be forced to pay you (with interest over time, because they won't have enough cash on hand to lump sum you, so it'll be closer to 2 billion plus 5%ish on the remaining capital for every year they fail to pay you everything.) You could technically do it for more, but that ups the chance the lottery dissolves and pays you however much its corpse is worth, instead. Or maybe that's what dream God alien wanted.
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Jan 13, 2016 03:29
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One other thing people don't think about that benefits the annuity is that you avoid paying tax twice. If you take the lump sum and invest, you pay taxes on the full amount, and then you also pay taxes on your investment returns as you capture them. If you take the annuity, you pay taxes on the annual amounts you receive. Basically by taking the annuity you are capturing a 2% ish annual risk-free tax-free investment, which all things considered is not bad at all. Yea you could beat the annuity by actively investing and returning on average approximately double the rate (due to taxes returns) but that's also a more volatile investment.
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Jan 13, 2016 03:35
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theyre gonna call it PLOWERBALL when i win this thing
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Jan 13, 2016 03:42
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Lump sum gains are going to be subject to capital gains, capped at 15%, no? Seems well worth a gain of 7.5% year over year
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Jan 13, 2016 03:42
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Clockwerk posted:Lump sum gains are going to be subject to capital gains, capped at 15%, no? Seems well worth a gain of 7.5% year over year I think it's federal income tax of 39.6%.
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Jan 13, 2016 04:16
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I'd say that for people who are likely to be alive in thirty years or whatever the annuity makes more sense than the lump sum. You'd be able to live your life off of the first payment alone, and everyone that follows is basically an insurance policy in case you decide to go crazy and be terrible with money.
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Jan 13, 2016 04:27
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A bird in hand is worth two in a bush. What happens when lotto is no longer solvent? I'll take the paltry 900 million now, thanks.
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Jan 13, 2016 04:31
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Well, as said up thread, the lotto invests your money into government bonds. If those bonds ever go tits up then chances are we wouldn't be around long enough to spend our ill gotten gains anyways. I think the lottery will always exist, especially if we get a second Great Depression someday - it gives people way too much hope and distraction for the government to throw it away.
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Jan 13, 2016 04:34
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Then again there's an argument to be made that at that level of wealth, maximizing long term returns becomes less important than diversifying wealth. If America rips a huge one and the lotto does become insolvent, having some foreign wealth would be a godsend. Not like wealth gains matter that much at that point anyway as long as you can limit yourself to spending under 5m a year lmao.
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Jan 13, 2016 04:41
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With this huge amount I would def lump sum and then buy myself some annuities as a guarantee of income in case I somehow blow through the other $800 million dollars in my Scrooge mc duck money bin
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Jan 13, 2016 04:58
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Can you still legally use money after you've swam naked in it?
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Jan 13, 2016 05:04
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Blind Rasputin posted:Can you still legally use money after you've swam naked in it? I'm pretty sure you and pee and poop and spray bodily fluids every which way to your heart's content and then pay people to wash it all off and fluff/fold it into 900 million little airplanes if that's what you want tbqh
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Jan 13, 2016 05:08
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Zogo posted:Buddhist monk, 61, attacked and robbed as he bought lottery tickets at Philadelphia gas station Well SOMEONE isn't elevating to a higher plane of existence due to their obsession with materials any time soon.
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Jan 13, 2016 05:08
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Yeah I think you'd want to lump sum just for fear of politicians getting so desperate for revenue without raising taxes that they raid the lottery fund which pays your annuity with the (perhaps righteous) justification of the greater good. Or the opposite, that annuity is super back loaded, and in 20 years we actually realize that a more appropriate top tax bracket is 91% again.
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Jan 13, 2016 05:13
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MrChupon posted:Yeah I think you'd want to lump sum just for fear of politicians getting so desperate for revenue without raising taxes that they raid the lottery fund which pays your annuity with the (perhaps righteous) justification of the greater good. Or the opposite, that annuity is super back loaded, and in 20 years we actually realize that a more appropriate top tax bracket is 91% again. Yeah or the government somehow collapses and your money is nowhere to be needed. WHen you could have spent it all investing in poo poo and buying sweet poo poo so you're set. Basically the government will gently caress you given any opportunity always take the lump sum.
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Jan 13, 2016 05:15
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Isn't Illinois having issues paying their lotto winners?
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Jan 13, 2016 05:15
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No. 6 posted:Isn't Illinois having issues paying their lotto winners? Lol wouldn't be surprised.
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Jan 13, 2016 05:18
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EngineerSean posted:Your expected value math is off, it's still -EV to buy a ticket due to the odds of a split jackpot. It's still +FUNEV though to buy a ticket. In order to do that we'd need to know the exact number of tickets sold. Two articles with more detail: http://thefederalist.com/2016/01/12/with-the-jackpot-at-1-4-billion-is-it-finally-rational-to-purchase-a-powerball-ticket/ http://www.durangobill.com/PowerballOdds.html EngineerSean posted:edit: also you seem to chop all the prizes in half but still deduct $2 for the ticket That's a very conservative estimate of the annuity take home amount because the gov't fat cats/politicians are going to take a lot in some states. Stefan Prodan posted:Not to mention isn't the full prize only if you take the annuity, which To do it perfectly we'd need the exact data on every ticket sold (and the number overlap) and in what state/city etc. and a thirty year look into the future! No. 6 posted:Isn't Illinois having issues paying their lotto winners? Yes, they were giving IOUs to people that won more than $25K for like six months and owed winners ~300million USD in total. Luckily the grand prize isn't paid by IL.
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Jan 13, 2016 05:56
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