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Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

etalian posted:

Remember all those dumb articles after the oil crashing saying things would get better for Alberta in 2016:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-economy-shrink-2016-q1-atb-outlook-1.3403674

Full report here in PDF format:
http://atb.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/About/Alberta-Economic-Outlook-Q1-2016.pdf

Nope, the albertan economy is expected to contract even more in 2016

Alberta is so screwed its unbelievable. They were banking on $60 oil last year and $80 for this years budget.

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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

jm20 posted:

Alberta is so screwed its unbelievable. They were banking on $60 oil last year and $80 for this years budget.

Even the pdf studies says all the Albertan job growth in 2017 is based on the assumption that the price of oil will start dramatically recover.

The reports oil could recover to the $40-$50 range by the end of 2016.

Crowbite
Apr 9, 2015
Man. I'm so happy I sold my house in Airdrie last summer. Come June, I can hardly wait to start apartment shopping again the rental market crashes and I can save even more money.

I'm wondering how bad the financial shape all the new office towers in the Calgary core are in. I can't imagine they all paid up front for the ridiculous construction prices when this City was booming.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

It's so cringeworthy to read article after article making statement such as the price of oil must dramatically improve by 2016/2017.

If anything commodities are even more volatile than the stock market and there's more negative issues in play right now such as Iran finally coming out of the cold.

Postess with the Mostest
Apr 4, 2007

Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes
Liberal fall economic update from Nov 20th.

http://www.budget.gc.ca/efp-peb/2015/pub/chap02-en.html#a4



MeinPanzer
Dec 20, 2004
anyone who reads Cinema Discusso for anything more than slackjawed trolling will see the shittiness in my posts

Ahahaha I live in Philly and Manayunk sucks. You can buy an apartment for $400k here in a nice neighbourhood that's close to downtown. Seriously, real estate here is absurdly cheap compared to Vancouver or Toronto.

Ccs
Feb 25, 2011


That's funny since bitcoin has apparently failed:
https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.tjq2ggjxg

quote:

The issue is that it’s now officially impossible to depend upon the bitcoin network anymore to know when or if your payment will be transacted, because the congestion is so bad that even minor spikes in volume create dramatic changes in network conditions. To whom is it acceptable that one could wait either 60 minutes or 14 hours, chosen at random?


That's gonna make these condo developers furious.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Looks the announcement that Iran would be ramping up production by 500k barrels per day kicked the price per barrel down to $28.

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

Need to cut our way to prosperity; harder.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

etalian posted:

Looks the announcement that Iran would be ramping up production by 500k barrels per day kicked the price per barrel down to $28.

God dammit Notley. Is there no end to your incompetence?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Saudi Arabia is panicking too:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-sanctions-saudi-idUSKCN0UW1FJ

Probably the main real reason why Saudi Arabia was pro sanctions is it kept a rival's main export out of international markets.

Supposedly Iran can also produce oil at a fairly low production price point similar to Saudi Arabia due to the geology of the fields.

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

Ccs posted:

That's funny since bitcoin has apparently failed:
https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.tjq2ggjxg


That's gonna make these condo developers furious.

drat, now I.need to read the bitcoin tread again to know about how badly they are freaking out.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

sbaldrick posted:

drat, now I.need to read the bitcoin tread again to know about how badly they are freaking out.

Another problem you can blame on China in addition to inflating housing prices.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

So we have no idea how much foreign investment is effecting the BC housing industry but we can exactly pinpoint how much taxing them will hurt our precious real-estate.

"Curbing foreign investment in B.C. real estate could cost $1B, says ministry document"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-real-estate-tax-housing-prices-1.3409587

Also weed is stupid, gently caress vancouver.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

The stupid fucks don't want to even measure what's going on in the housing bubble

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

quote:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-construction-jobs-buildforce-labour-forecast-1.3408954?cmp=rss

Alberta could lose 31,000 construction jobs by 2019, according to a national labour forecast.

"The oil price decline is driving employment lower across all construction sectors," says BuildForce Canada's 2016-25 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward forecast.

'Alberta has been through construction cycles before, but nothing this complex.'
- Rosemary Sparks, executive director of BuildForce Canada
In the oilsands alone, construction jobs are forecast to decline by 28 per cent from the peak in 2014.

One bright spot in the short term is commercial building, where current project activity is expected to continue in 2016 before slowing in 2017, and then grow in steady increments over the long term.

Construction, not oil, is king in Alberta's economy
"Alberta has been through construction cycles before, but nothing this complex," said Rosemary Sparks, executive director of BuildForce Canada, a national construction industry group.

"That's why it's crucial for industry to stay focused on recruiting young people and attracting and keeping those skilled trades that are, or will be, in the most demand."

'Skills vacuum'

The report warns of a "skills vacuum" once the economy starts to recover in 2020, more than making up for current job losses.


"Oilsands job losses, an aging workforce, the departure of out-of-province workers and the ongoing demand for workers to sustain and maintain projects are all behind complex shifts in Alberta's construction workforce," said Sparks.

"The loss of as many as 36,000 skilled workers retiring this decade makes it even more challenging to replace that kind of experience," she added.

Scott MacPherson, the dean of the school of construction at Calgary's SAIT Polytechnic, said two words sum up the current market: uncertainty and change.

"People aren't quite sure what's going on out there," he said. "Rather than the new construction that we've been experiencing for years now, maybe there'll be more of a focus on repairs, maintenance and operations."

Bright spots

hi-construction-housing
Some 256,000 people work in Alberta's construction industry. (Canadian Press)

Even as Alberta's economy weakens, there is work in plant maintenance, shutdowns and turnarounds for skilled trades such as boilermakers, pipefitters and specialty welders, the report says.

Home renovation work is set to grow by 1,900 jobs across the forecast period.

As for residential construction, 9,000 jobs are expected to be lost between 2016 to 2019, followed by a period of partial recovery that raises employment by 7,000 jobs by 2025.

Flexibility essential

MacPherson said workers will have to be adaptable, given the new reality.

"They need to be flexible in the careers that they consider, in the areas that they consider working," he said.

"Maybe they're not going to be stationed in Fort McMurray for two years with new construction, maybe they'll be at a site doing repairs and maintenance for a short period of time and then moving on to another site. So they have to be quite mobile."

He also points to the changing demographics as a great opportunity for young workers.

"We see that the workforce is aging and for someone on the tools, maybe they want to move off the tools and they want to move to a supervisor job or a management job," he said.

"So it's creating more opportunities for young people. We hear that from our employers, we hear that from our students and it's backed up with the data and the research that we see from organizations such as BuildForce."

The Alberta construction industry is forecasting an industry wide recession until 2020.

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost

jm20 posted:

The Alberta construction industry is forecasting an industry wide recession until 2020.

Makes sense. That's when we can get all these socialists out of office and then raise the price of oil again.

Postess with the Mostest
Apr 4, 2007

Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes
I'm starting to think there might be a bubble.

quote:

The indebtedness of Canadian households continues to trend higher. In the third quarter of 2015, total household debt (i.e., credit market debt plus trade payables) reached 171 per cent of disposable income. In other words, for every $100 of disposable income, households had debt obligations of $171. This is the highest level recorded since 1990.





quote:

To project the average effective interest rate on debt over the medium term (for both mortgage and non-mortgage debt), PBO uses a regression-based model. It links the effective interest rates to short- and long-term interest rates, that is, the Bank of Canada’s target for the overnight rate and the Government of Canada 10-year benchmark bond rate.

In PBO’s November 2015 outlook, the target for the overnight rate was projected to increase from its current level of 0.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent by the end of 2020; similarly the 10-year benchmark bond rate was projected to increase from 1.5 percent to 4.5 per cent over the same period (Figure 5-1).

Based on these projections and given their historical relationships, the effective interest rate on mortgage debt is projected to rise from 3.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2015 to 5.3 per cent by the end of 2020; the effective rate on non-mortgage debt is projected to rise from 5.3 per cent to 8.1 per cent over the same period.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

jm20 posted:

The Alberta construction industry is forecasting an industry wide recession until 2020.

A vibrant holes and houses economy.

The Lord of Hats
Aug 22, 2010

Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?

jm20 posted:

The Alberta construction industry is forecasting an industry wide recession until 2020.

Sure, the economy of Alberta will be collapsing for the next four years, and by 2025 it still won't have fully recovered, but...

poo poo, I can't even think of an imaginary delusional upside.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

The upside is Albertans will be trapped there by their mortgages.

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


Mantle posted:

The upside is Albertans will be trapped there by their mortgages.

In fort mac, they'll just stop paying rent and go back to BC or ontario.

Their landlord is going to be stuck in like 6 mortgages though, and that was his retirement!

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

Yeah I've read a lot of CBC articles about how workers are going to pay their rent and I'm thinking... they won't? They'll just disappear back home?

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Two rich people can't afford to build a custom home for their 5 kids and live-in nanny, what has canada come to???
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rticle22496585/

\/ Thought it was familiar, read the date wrong.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Jan 20, 2016

large hands
Jan 24, 2006
There was a big outrage about that when the article came out a year ago, not just here I remember people on Facebook laughing at them

e: did they stop doing the sad/worried looking family illustrations? those are the best

large hands fucked around with this message at 02:18 on Jan 20, 2016

Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Powershift posted:

Their landlord is going to be stuck in like 6 mortgages though, and that was his retirement!

Stay liquid, buy him out, become the next Fort Mac slumlord when the commodity supercycle is at its next peak :getin:

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




large hands posted:

There was a big outrage about that when the article came out a year ago, not just here I remember people on Facebook laughing at them

e: did they stop doing the sad/worried looking family illustrations? those are the best

Where is CI and his Death by Guillotine gif when you need it.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Furnaceface posted:

Where is CI and his Death by Guillotine gif when you need it.

Probated by a mod with personal grudges and an axe to grind.

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


Mantle posted:

The upside is Albertans will be trapped there by their mortgages.

Isn't AB one of two provinces that allow you to walk away from your mortgage American style? SK being the other?

http://business.financialpost.com/p...-but-should-you

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Reverse Centaur posted:

Isn't AB one of two provinces that allow you to walk away from your mortgage American style? SK being the other?

http://business.financialpost.com/p...-but-should-you

And they've done it before?

Watch Alberta bring the entire loving country to its knees.

Arivia
Mar 17, 2011

Rime posted:

Probated by a mod with personal grudges and an axe to grind.

I'm pretty sure getting probated for using transphobic slurs is just posting 101, not "personal grudges." GBS is up there.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Rime posted:

And they've done it before?

Watch Alberta bring the entire loving country to its knees.

The catch you can only walk away from the mortgage if the loan wasn't backed by the CMHC

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

Arivia posted:

I'm pretty sure getting probated for using transphobic slurs is just posting 101, not "personal grudges." GBS is up there.

Hmmmm. Ah... I see.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

The Lord of Hats posted:

Sure, the economy of Alberta will be collapsing for the next four years, and by 2025 it still won't have fully recovered, but...

poo poo, I can't even think of an imaginary delusional upside.

The upside is that the NDP will take all the blame and never get elected again.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011
It's okay guys the Bank of America says Canada is #1 in the world for "soundness of banks" so really, we're fine.

The Gunslinger
Jul 24, 2004

Do not forget the face of your father.
Fun Shoe
No interest rate cut from BoC. The dollar is already hammered and with oil declining further this year at least this seems like the right decision.

Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Holy poo poo didn't expect that call. Good on em.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Market is cratering

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




jm20 posted:

Market is cratering

Blame China Saudi Arabia Iran Trudeau and the ANDP for not stabilizing the price of oil.

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Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Not nearly enough people are talking about this time bomb

quote:

B.C. strata councils in ‘critical’ funding state

Owners ‘just don’t have the money’ for proper contingency funds

Strata depreciation reports have unearthed an alarming situation for B.C. condo owners: The overwhelming majority of strata units are carrying monthly maintenance fees that are nowhere near adequate to keep up their buildings.

“This is really a scary situation,” says Jeremy Bramwell, of Bramwell & Associates Realty Advisors. “We are going to have a lot of special assessments being levied (on condo unit owners) in coming years.”

Special assessments are the dreaded lump-sum levies imposed on owners by strata corporations when they need extra cash to cover supposedly unexpected expenses.

The requirement for depreciation reports was introduced by the B.C. government in 2011, and were supposed to give strata councils an advance understanding of the timing and costs involved in maintaining and repairing assets over a 30-year period.

Bramwell’s company carries out the comprehensive reviews required to produce the depreciation reports.

He recalls one of his client-strata corporations had a reserve fund with “less than 2 per cent of the money needed” to address the looming upgrades outlined in its report.

And such dire underfunding is not at all uncommon. Bramwell estimates that fewer than two per cent of his clients meet even a basic standard of having a reserve or contingency fund that is deemed just 35 per cent adequate. Which means 98 per have reserve funds that are less adequate than that.

“According to international standards, that would mean all of them are in a ‘critical state’.”

Commenting on strata reserve funds across B.C., Bramwell declared: “This whole province is in a critical financial position.”

The Condominium Homeowners Association of B.C. did not respond to repeated calls for comment.

Bramwell bases his analysis on U.S.-based National Reserve Study Standards. He notes that in Toronto, monthly fees for condos typically run between $600 and $900. In Vancouver, “if maintenance fees are more than $300 a month, it’s surprising.”

Fees are kept low in Vancouver because of housing affordability challenges. Once a buyer pays a big price for a strata unit, there is not much left for monthly maintenance.

“I’ve been at council meetings where people are upset to see the numbers. They say that they just don’t have the money.”

Condo owners also want to keep monthly fees low to ensure their units remain marketable.


As bad as the financial situation of many B.C. strata corporations is, another concern has been raised by the requirement for depreciation reports.

The deadline to acquire the reports was December 2013. But some 40 to 50 per cent of strata corporations are opting to annually defer, temporarily or indefinitely, the commissioning of such documents.

They can do so because the Strata Property Act provision for depreciation reports has a couple of loopholes. First, it applies only to corporations with five or more units. Second, a three-quarter vote of strata members can nullify the requirement.

Some condo boards don’t want to pay the $2,500 to $5,500 fee to hire companies like Bramwell & Associates, or Campbell & Pound.

Dan Jones, president of Campbell & Pound, notes that condo owners “in their senior years are looking at their own personal finances rather than the community picture.”

Some people prefer to behave like ostriches, says Bramwell, choosing not to know how onerous their financial obligations really are.

The reports, often dozens of pages in length, are controversial because condo boards are damned if they have a depreciation report, and damned if they do not.

That’s because the reports can scare off potential buyers.

Then again, if no report has been done, a potential buyer may wonder what the strata is trying to hide. Without the reports, condo buyers can be thwarted in obtaining bank mortgages.

Bramwell also cites a lack of standardization in the preparation of depreciation reports. Because each appraiser carries out work differently, it is difficult for buyers to compare and contrast depreciation reports from different buildings.


Owners get sticker shock at any sort of fee increases and will vote everything down unless it’s a sub 3% increase. Developers are complicit in setting the initial fees way too low to make it easier to sell the units.

Owners have over extended themselves so much that they need to have super low monthly fees. It’s a bit of a scam in that early flippers will do all they can to keep fees low, then get out before the poo poo hits the fan.

The BC government needs to step in and regulate the amount of contingency funds that must be kept. Simply requiring a depreciation report to be made isn’t enough, because buildings get a depreciation report, then put it on the shelf and ignore it because it’s politically impossible to follow the report guidelines by increasing monthly fees.

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