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Morbus posted:I, for one, open the China Economy Megathrad to read 10 paragraphs about dutch coins from the 17th century or whatever the gently caress horseshit that was. Can't wait to hear more about the Opium wars!
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# ? Jan 22, 2016 02:25 |
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# ? May 10, 2024 21:17 |
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Britain attacked China over the right to sell narcotics to China that were at the time outlawed in Britain. China lost the war and then lost 100 years. The end.
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# ? Jan 22, 2016 03:56 |
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Vladimir Putin posted:Britain attacked China over the right to sell narcotics to China that were at the time outlawed in Britain. China lost the war and then lost 100 years. The end. East Asia is probably better off for it
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# ? Jan 22, 2016 03:57 |
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Cross postin' from the Canada Debt thread. http://www.afr.com/real-estate/chinas-wobbles-not-good-news-chinese-in-australia-say-20160121-gmaovj quote:China's wobbles not good news, Chinese in Australia say
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# ? Jan 24, 2016 20:05 |
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http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3521958/China-GDP-scepticism-upends-trading-strategies.htmlquote:China GDP scepticism upends trading strategies By: Published on: Tuesday, January 19, 2016 Distrust in official data coincides with hedge-fund closures, including Nevsky Capital.
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# ? Jan 24, 2016 20:11 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3521958/China-GDP-scepticism-upends-trading-strategies.html It's a classic case of garbage in garbage out.
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# ? Jan 25, 2016 03:21 |
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Krispy Kareem posted:So we add 3 trillion and nothing bad happens, because unemployment was high and people thought the economy was worse than it was. Plus no one's gotten raises for the last decade so increased wages weren't putting pressure on prices. Also, the way the 3 trillion was used is kind of important. The Fed basically bought assets from the banks (mostly mortgages and government bonds). What didn't happen is that 3 trillion dollars didn't just get handed out, stuff was bought with it, real assets that have a real return. What also didn't happen is that 3 trillion wasn't just printed as needed, it was borrowed in the form of treasury bonds. Assets that are now being sold back to the banks, quietly removing the 3 trillion back out of the economy.
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# ? Jan 25, 2016 16:20 |
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Those articles are talking about capital-flow controls - are they talking about the standard capital controls or were there new controls put in place in the last few weeks? I recall upthread there was an article from the China Law Blog about rumored 'unofficial' regulations preventing outflow - have those become more real?
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# ? Jan 25, 2016 17:55 |
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Another day, another 5% drop. Banana Cart man will be sad.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 07:35 |
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Well currently in China there have been additional controls to limit sending to corporate accounts, so companies can't easily their money to foreign accounts or subsidiaries. Unless they're transferring it to the CEO's personal account which I'm sure sold never go awry.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 09:28 |
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There was a statistic from the Economist that it'd only take 5% of Chinese to convert their Yuan to the max of $50k in Dollars to completely exhaust China's currency reserves. I have no idea if 5% of Chinese have or feel a need to exchange their Yuan for $50k in Dollars. But it'd be kind of funny if it becomes easier to turn Butcoins into USD than Yuan.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 14:55 |
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Krispy Kareem posted:There was a statistic from the Economist that it'd only take 5% of Chinese to convert their Yuan to the max of $50k in Dollars to completely exhaust China's currency reserves. Ah yes, 5% of the country has 50,000 USD in liquid assets and can all start a bank run no problem. GoutPatrol fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Jan 26, 2016 |
# ? Jan 26, 2016 15:27 |
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So the head of the national bureau of statistics was arrested for corruption, maybe those GDP numbers were not high enough.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 15:36 |
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Jumpingmanjim posted:So the head of the national bureau of statistics was arrested for corruption, maybe those GDP numbers were not high enough. Subverting the state line is basically corruption to the party.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 15:47 |
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What kind of market crash would the U.S. see if the head of the BEA was arrested shortly after releasing highly suspect GDP information?
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 15:50 |
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Here's a dumb question? How do we know for sure the size of China's foreign currency reserves?
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 16:25 |
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Jumpingmanjim posted:Here's a dumb question? How do we know for sure the size of China's foreign currency reserves? No one knows for sure, it's all an estimate.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 16:45 |
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Vladimir Putin posted:No one knows for sure, it's all an estimate. After the inevitable financial catastrophe, all the experts will look back and say: "well, with hindsight it was obvious that the true situation was 'x'." Yeah, cheers guys.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 16:48 |
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Krispy Kareem posted:What kind of market crash would the U.S. see if the head of the BEA was arrested shortly after releasing highly suspect GDP information? Ironically the market would probably pop.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 17:04 |
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GoutPatrol posted:Ah yes, 5% of the country has 50,000 USD in liquid assets and can all start a bank run no problem. You'd be surprised. Most Chinese people buy cars and property with straight cash. Some of this is shadow lending but most Chinese parents and adults save most of what they earn to buy their kids or future kids a car and a house so they can get married.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 17:13 |
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Are the legal means of converting currency even a drop in the bucket compared to semi-legal methods like washing money in a Macao casino?
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 18:52 |
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From what I've heard, even laundering money through Macau has been cracked down on recently. This is why there are bunch of Chinese bitcoin warehouses using as much electricity as a small country to get the mining rewards as a way of getting their money out even though mining the coins hasn't actually been profitable for a long time. Since Yuan is not actually leaving the economy (just being spent on the mining hardware, rent, and electricity), the CCP probably doesn't care.
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# ? Jan 26, 2016 19:05 |
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The World Economic Forum had a talk about China where one of the main speakers said that China is shifting from quantity of economic growth to quality of growth. http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2016/sessions/where-is-the-chinese-economy-heading I have no idea what that actually means. And he still believes the numbers aren't made up: "“I do not believe there is volatility in the Chinese economy,” says Jiang Jianqing, Chairman of the Board, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, because growth in 2015 was, as predicted, still 6.9%."
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 02:55 |
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Ccs posted:The World Economic Forum had a talk about China where one of the main speakers said that China is shifting from quantity of economic growth to quality of growth. Well he may not believe them, but he is hardly going to question them in public is he?
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 03:00 |
If you get disappeared if you question the party line you aren't going to question the party line.
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 03:11 |
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 03:51 |
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Ccs posted:The World Economic Forum had a talk about China where one of the main speakers said that China is shifting from quantity of economic growth to quality of growth. It's a fig leaf to make China's declining growth look better, and also to support the CCP's official narrative that they've got everything under control and are fixing everything as we speak
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 04:07 |
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That might be from over invoicing done to move money out of the mainland
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 04:17 |
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Honestly the fact that the Chinese announce their yearly growth rate the first week of January should have been raising red flags for years.
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 04:33 |
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SHCOMP making GBS threads itself again.
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 04:42 |
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Jumpingmanjim posted:SHCOMP making GBS threads itself again. Haha jesus, nearly the entire market cap must have been artificial inflation by the CCP because they wanted a cargo cult stock market
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 04:48 |
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Jumpingmanjim posted:SHCOMP making GBS threads itself again. We're just about at 50% of the high (which I read as 5150 back in June). Come on baby, you can make it to 2000!
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 06:13 |
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So wait, they are trying to say they rose 64.5% in one month?
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 10:08 |
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:So wait, they are trying to say they rose 64.5% in one month? Prob compared to the same period last year.
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 10:55 |
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Fojar38 posted:Honestly the fact that the Chinese announce their yearly growth rate the first week of January should have been raising red flags for years. it has
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 14:58 |
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Fojar38 posted:Honestly the fact that the Chinese announce their yearly growth rate the first week of January should have been raising red flags for years. The red flag is always up, in China
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 15:02 |
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Fojar38 posted:Honestly the fact that the Chinese announce their yearly growth rate the first week of January should have been raising red flags for years. Wait...they're announcing 2016 GDP? I thought those were 2015 results.
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 16:00 |
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are the restrictions on selling stocks and moving cash still in place? What's going to happen when those are lifted?
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 16:06 |
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Sound posted:are the restrictions on selling stocks and moving cash still in place? What's going to happen when those are lifted? ?
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 16:43 |
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# ? May 10, 2024 21:17 |
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Sound posted:are the restrictions on selling stocks and moving cash still in place? What's going to happen when those are lifted? Near instant Chinese Great Depression. Their market was built on a house of cards that makes the 2008 housing bubble look like a baby's toy. The CCP wouldn't be able to stem the capital flight as anyone who has any money left in the country flees to Australia and Canada to try to leverage their real estate options there (which will also be crashing because a whole bunch of Chinese financiers propping up the real estate bubbles there couldn't liquidate fast enough to get out).
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# ? Jan 27, 2016 19:05 |