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Donald's supporters are divided socioeconomically into theTrumpenproletariat and the yoogeoisie.
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Jan 25, 2016 04:39
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Oiled and Ready posted:If Trump's campaign consists of bringing them up all the time what's the difference? Quite a bit. If he's leading the polls because his campaign resonates with people then that's a rather disturbing shift in the electorate. However, if his campaign's success is predicated on his polling and news coverage then his support is more of an artificial thing. If his campaign is only a success because his polling is a success then he has to stay on top of the polls or else his campaign collapses. I was reading an article on either politico or 538 which discussed Trump's support among Evangelicals. It talked about how Evangelical leaders are a bit surprised with how much he's garnering support from religious conservatives even though he's not really a religious conservative himself. The reason is that many social conservatives feel that they can't speak their beliefs because society is too "PC" and that they see Trump saying unpopular things and not caring and that resonates with them. I don't think people support him because they actually agree with his political or social positions, or even know what his positions are for that matter. They just like that he can say all the offensive things they think about but never feel comfortable saying.
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Jan 25, 2016 05:44
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Trump has the money to stay in the race well after and Iowa is a dumb race that hasn't predicted anything correctly in forever. He's still probably going to win it, though. BedBuglet posted:People act like Silver is denying Trump's leads in the polls but he's really not. He's repeatedly said that early polling is notoriously unreliable and internet polling (which is what much of this year's polls have been) are unproven. Also, personally, I'm wondering if Trump's campaign is driving his success in the polls or if his success in the polls is driving his campaign. There's a reason Trump constantly brings up his polling. Missing the rise of Trump is not exactly a high water mark for someone who makes a living trying to predict things. Those polls have more predictive power as time goes on and Trump's winning all of them. He's gonna have this sewed up by Super Tuesday if the GOP can't dislodge some of the small fish, that's only a little over a month from now. The time for 'early polls can't predict anything' is firmly gone and now it looks like Trump could very well run the board. I believe there was an article from five three eight talking about that, so they're starting to come around, but to some people (*cough*) Trump has been perceived as real trouble from day 1.
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Jan 25, 2016 16:07
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Trump has the money to stay in the race well after and Iowa is a dumb race that hasn't predicted anything correctly in forever. He's still probably going to win it, though. The more important fact is he has a double digit lead in more Super Tuesday states and more importantly has broken any effective opposition to his nomination over the last few months. Trump tried to fight him in Iowa but ended up getting stumped. Safe establishment politicians like Jeb! and Rubio would rather spending millions of dollars fighting it out for 3rd/4th place than attempt to stump the Trump.
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Jan 25, 2016 17:22
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Trump has the money to stay in the race well after and Iowa is a dumb race that hasn't predicted anything correctly in forever. He's still probably going to win it, though. I find this a little funny. Not funny in an insulting way mind you, but amusing. Someone says "Oh, I think that has a 10% chance of happening." Whatever it is happens. "Why didn't you see this coming?" "I did, I said it had a ten percent chance." Like, I'm at a loss here. Should Silver have given him a higher chance? If so, based on what and at what point? In order for Trump to still be standing today, a lot of unlikely things had to happen (including things that have never happened in a presidential race before). I've watched his Trump predictions shift as the field has. Iowa hasn't even happened yet so I think he's allowed to develop his opinion. As to people seeing it day 1, I guess I shrug. A lot of people thought we were going to have a double dip recession. We didn't. If we had, they would have seen it from day 1 but that doesn't make their reasons for predicting it well informed. Like I said, a lot of unlikely things have happened between that mall announcement and now. Also, if you look back at history, even today's polling is still "early polling" and can fail to predict primaries in spectacular ways. We can have this conversation after Iowa and we've seen how successful Trump is at turning poll numbers and rallies into feet in the booth. Case and point, take a look at Iowa in the last two races. 
BedBuglet has issued a correction as of 18:20 on Jan 25, 2016 |
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Jan 25, 2016 18:15
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H5N1 has issued a correction as of 06:17 on Feb 11, 2016 |
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Jan 25, 2016 18:58
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Predicting Trump from day 1 is a punditry brag not a stats brag and Nate Silver isn't a pundit. /argument
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Jan 25, 2016 19:39
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Jan 25, 2016 22:11
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Rocks posted:I forgive the white supremacist this time This Rocks posted:I forgive the white supremacist this time Campaign Rocks posted:I forgive the white supremacist this time Unhinges Rocks posted:I forgive the white supremacist this time Decent Rocks posted:I forgive the white supremacist this time People Rocks posted:I forgive the white supremacist this time
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Jan 25, 2016 22:25
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Anecdotal evidence of african american support for trump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9F7FUSa2WQ Seems to agree with the theory that some black voters would support the Donald as a defender of jobs from illegals.
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Jan 25, 2016 22:42
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Trump controls Chang!
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Jan 25, 2016 22:46
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Trump sighed as he put on his comb-over and drew his katana
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Jan 25, 2016 22:47
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Sir Tonk posted:Trump controls Chang! Chang uses a dao you chauvinist swine!
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Jan 25, 2016 22:47
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Herostratus posted:Anecdotal evidence of african american support for trump: Seems pretty reasonable to me - Black Americans are overwhelmingly working class and that's the group concerned the most about the impact of illegal immigration on their jobs and livelihood, and the least concerned about the democrats' socially liberal policies.
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Jan 25, 2016 23:07
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also trump simply IS racist rather than racist but trying to hide it (like sanders), which is refreshing
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Jan 25, 2016 23:09
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zeal posted:Chang uses a dao you chauvinist swine! Bernie has a sword too, Jeb! and Trump have swords. Use the Highlander movie concept to decide who wins the election.
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Jan 25, 2016 23:47
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Carl Killer Miller posted:This -Burma-Shave
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Jan 25, 2016 23:53
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etalian posted:Bernie has a sword too, Jeb! and Trump have swords. every candidate sighed as they drew their katana
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Jan 25, 2016 23:57
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:every candidate sighed as they drew their katana 
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Jan 26, 2016 00:03
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look at what trump has done the republican primary threaders are eating each other is this a taste of whats to come?
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Jan 26, 2016 00:05
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Trump - Blacks going to like me better than Obama Some good points in this short vid about how Trump is going to go for the anti-immigrant black vote as described here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/01/24/trump_black_people_are_going_to_like_me_better_than_they_like_obama.html
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Jan 26, 2016 00:15
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It is refreshing to see Bernie does not own such an inferior and shameful weapon as a katana. Also wonder what his gun collection looks like.
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Jan 26, 2016 01:38
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Powercrazy posted:It is refreshing to see Bernie does not own such an inferior and shameful weapon as a katana. I assume a tasteful assortment of wood stocked hunting rifles and shotguns, maybe a couple revolvers. I really don't see him owning any sort of wonder-nine or an AR. edit: this really seems like it should be in the thread titled "Gay Communist Gun Club" LGD has issued a correction as of 03:08 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 01:47
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how will Trump go to war? there's no way he'd stay in some DC situation room when he could be tooling around in the newly commissioned Air Force Trump mobile conquest platform at the very least he'd hover out to the major posts during the fighting season to elevate his favored and execute the low energy losers, surely
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Jan 26, 2016 02:51
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My girlfriend responded to my ironic Trump support by masturbating to a fantasy about him. Do I have to dress her up as Ivanka and myself as the Donald and gently caress her as such now? I figured you guys would be able to help me out with some advice here.
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Jan 26, 2016 05:47
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Best Giraffe posted:My girlfriend responded to my ironic Trump support by masturbating to a fantasy about him. Do I have to dress her up as Ivanka and myself as the Donald and gently caress her as such now? I figured you guys would be able to help me out with some advice here. U just got cucked
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Jan 26, 2016 05:49
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supporting trump ironically is a coward's pastime either abjure the unchecked horror of his being and prepare yourself for ultimate punishment or submit and grovel as do his slaves you will have no counsel from me
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Jan 26, 2016 05:50
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Best Giraffe posted:My girlfriend responded to my ironic Trump support by masturbating to a fantasy about him. Do I have to dress her up as Ivanka and myself as the Donald and gently caress her as such now? I figured you guys would be able to help me out with some advice here. What you're looking for is http://www.yandy.com/Donna-T.-Rumpshaker-Costume.php, my friend.
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Jan 26, 2016 05:53
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Top Bunk Wanker posted:What you're looking for is http://www.yandy.com/Donna-T.-Rumpshaker-Costume.php, my friend. This is going to make my sex life great again. I'm voting Trump now!
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Jan 26, 2016 06:07
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zeal posted:abjure the unchecked horror of his being and prepare yourself for ultimate punishment yes please on opposite day
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Jan 26, 2016 06:58
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it's long dark road we're on
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Jan 26, 2016 07:02
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BedBuglet posted:Like, I'm at a loss here. Should Silver have given him a higher chance? If so, based on what and at what point? In order for Trump to still be standing today, a lot of unlikely things had to happen (including things that have never happened in a presidential race before). I've watched his Trump predictions shift as the field has. Iowa hasn't even happened yet so I think he's allowed to develop his opinion. This is an important point to make when judging predictions. Not only is it it important to be right, you have to be right for the right reasons. Someone predicting Trump will win the Republican nomination in September might look prescient now, but if their reasoning was "he's going to win because his poll numbers are highest now," well, they're probably still retarded. If instead their reasoning was "he's going to dominate the media and effectively control the tone and subject of the race, gradually pushing up favorables and drowning out rival narratives," that person would look much more clever. In any case even now there's a lot that can change. The one thing I'm sure of is anyone claiming to know the future is certainly full of poo poo. If Trump is so likely to lose, why are Republican Leaders beginning to plan around his victory? If a contested convention is so improbable, why has the Republican Party suddenly put so much thought into organizing the event and clarifying the rules? If a Trump victory is so certain, why does the PredictIt primary market only give him a 53% chance? Ask 50 people to guess the outcome of a coin flip and about 25 of them will get it right. That doesn't make them more likely to predict the outcome of the next flip. If you want to accurately predict a coin flip, you give it a 50% chance of heads, and 50% chance of tails. Anything more precise than that is either foolish or dishonest. For the record, I think Trump has maybe 40% chance of winning the GOP primary. There's still too much uncertainty whether his supporters will turn out, especially if the bad weather they're predicting for Iowa comes to fruition. If the mainstream candidates consolidate they could still present real threat. And its possible the media dynamic will change after voting starts and become less favorable to Trump.
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Jan 26, 2016 07:43
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Squalid posted:This is an important point to make when judging predictions. Not only is it it important to be right, you have to be right for the right reasons. Someone predicting Trump will win the Republican nomination in September might look prescient now, but if their reasoning was "he's going to win because his poll numbers are highest now," well, they're probably still retarded. If instead their reasoning was "he's going to dominate the media and effectively control the tone and subject of the race, gradually pushing up favorables and drowning out rival narratives," that person would look much more clever. TRUMP *hangs up*
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Jan 26, 2016 07:49
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Vile posted:U just got cucked
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Jan 26, 2016 10:56
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H5N1 has issued a correction as of 06:17 on Feb 11, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 17:14
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Trump just got an endorsement from Jerry Falwell Jr. Trump is hilarious. He goes after, and gets, every endorsement that Cruz should have been handed. The brutality of a Trump campaign is unmatched.
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Jan 26, 2016 17:57
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The Human Crouton posted:Trump just got an endorsement from Jerry Falwell Jr. Trump is hilarious. He goes after, and gets, every endorsement that Cruz should have been handed. The brutality of a Trump campaign is unmatched. Would you like a president that thirsts for the rich iron of blood?
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Jan 26, 2016 20:09
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Carl Killer Miller posted:Would you like a president that thirsts for the rich iron of blood? Trump will pay the gold price for something, then pay the iron price and take the gold back.
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Jan 26, 2016 20:17
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Powercrazy posted:It is refreshing to see Bernie does not own such an inferior and shameful weapon as a katana. I want to see a fighting game with a pixilated Bernie with a broadsword vs Trump with a katana.   No idea what Jeb or Cruz would use. Somehow I could see Hillary pulling a glock out of that pantsuit Bill of course would just wack people with his wang. Edit: maybe Jeb could use exclamation point nunchucks. 
Helical Nightmares has issued a correction as of 21:04 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 21:01
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Helical Nightmares posted:Somehow I could see Hillary pulling a glock out of that pantsuit Yeah, "somehow"
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Jan 26, 2016 21:04
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