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Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

JohnGalt posted:

Wait, really? I was under the assumption that Venezuelan crude was a sub $15/bbl production costs. It should be even less with a weak currency.

I can't imagine Venezuelan crude being that much of a discount.

I don't have the links handy, but Maduro has said that the price of oil he considers fair and would like the market to settle at is around the $100 per barrel mark. Also, this year's national budget (which was approved last fall) bases its calculations on a barrel of oil going for $60.

I'm not sure what the cost of producing a barrel of oil is in Venezuela, but whatever it's selling for now is well below what the government needs to stay afloat.

Hugoon Chavez posted:

We should get a new thread title, since the whole Colombia thing just loving vanished out of the collective Venezuelan mind.

Venezuela: screw your assembly, I'll build my own! With blackjack and hookers!

Yes! But how do I do it? Do I need to ask a mod to change it?

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Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Aporrea.org is a website that has historically supported chavismo and the PSUV. Over the last few months, as the crisis in the country has intensified and the government's unwillingness to address reality has become more and more apparent, the website has become \critical of chavismo and the Maduro administration.

Yesterday, the website published an article that is perhaps the most critical piece to appear on Aporrea to date. The article begins with acknowledging that the opposition often blames the country's problems on un modelo fracasado ["a failed model"], and goes on to name that model and provide some of the depressing socio-economic statistics that we've been talking about in this thread for months.

The last bit of the article is particularly important (emphasis in original):

quote:

In the name of the revolutionary, proletariat left wing, those who abstained from voting or spoiled their ballots: we reject the infamy that is pretending to draw some kind of connection between socialism and the chavista model. Socialism has absolutely nothing to do with what has happened in Venezuela during the past 17 years, which is why we've always considered this government to be neither revolutionary nor bolivarian, and much less socialist. It is a military government, with the military and for the military, which is why the military academies don't teach socialism, which is something that can only be learned through the worker's struggles, in the struggles of campesinos for land, and through the ideological struggle of students in their universities.

Socialism is the exclusive patrimony of the working class. Without the working class, there is no socialism. As a consequence, it is wicked to say that chavismo is socialism.

The article also calls the "economic disaster" the country is suffering through today "Chavez's legacy", and says:

quote:

This economic disaster has a first and last name: HUGO Chavez, [creator of] chavismo, which is based on demagogic populism, hyperleadership and a cult of personality. It is a political ideology that adorns itself with biblical, Marxist, Christian-socialist, fascist, neo-nazi, and militaristic quotations in a peculiar form of ideological syncretism.

:drat:

Hugoon Chavez
Nov 4, 2011

THUNDERDOME LOSER
Godamn, that's a massive turnaround for Aporrea. I don't understand what could've happened that made them flip completely, they were always a chavist website.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'

JohnGalt posted:

Wait, really? I was under the assumption that Venezuelan crude was a sub $15/bbl production costs. It should be even less with a weak currency.

I can't imagine Venezuelan crude being that much of a discount.

Weak currency just makes things worse because all the additives, chemicals, repair parts and everything else necessary for production is imported, and there are thousands of foreign employees from Iran, Belarus and other countries that have been brought to replace all the Venezuelans that left or were fired after the general strike and they are all paid in dollars not bolivares.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Hugoon Chavez posted:

Godamn, that's a massive turnaround for Aporrea. I don't understand what could've happened that made them flip completely, they were always a chavist website.

Aporrea has always had the odd critical article. They may be chavista as gently caress, but they aren't fully controlled by the government.

It's certainly unusual for them to carry an article that's quite that critical - and one that calls out the Comandante Eterno y Supremo no less, but as a whole, they are still chavistas.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Hugoon Chavez posted:

Godamn, that's a massive turnaround for Aporrea. I don't understand what could've happened that made them flip completely, they were always a chavist website.

if there is ONE good trait communists do have is that they're willing to criticize themselves. the government itself will never agree to any blame, in fact you can see how they're divided between the Chavistas that are actually aware they hosed up and the ones who will continue to push the economic war agenda.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'
Listening to Nelson Bocaranda's radio show and they have Guillermo Lasso as guest who was a candidate in the 2013 presidential elections in Ecuador and it's so jarring to listen to an educated man like him speak compared to a total moron like Maduro who talks and talks but never actually says anything.

fnox
May 19, 2013



I legitimately don't know who is advising Maduro or who is actually telling the government what to say but hoooooly poo poo they seriously need somebody to tell them the whole "economic war" deal is a loving joke and there is no chance in hell you can convince somebody who once had enough food to live that it's nice having less food now, that it's nice to queue up for hours to buy some loving food. It didn't work at the parliamentary elections campaign, it sure as hell won't work now.

It's not even that hard to stay in power in Venezuela, seriously, I've been listening to a LOT of speeches from a whole bunch of opposition deputies, and there are more than some that are pretty weak, that they could just latch on and target to get some popularity, but they don't! They just scream and scream about the same drat thing over and over again, they have not said ONCE a single tagline you can put on a paper. Their economic policies are just absurd, distorted, they don't make sense even to the most radical of socialists, and they don't want to budge either.

Like what the gently caress is going through their collective heads right now?

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

fnox posted:

Like what the gently caress is going through their collective heads right now?
That political game in Venezuela has changed dramatically.

Chavez was a populist who built the PSUV, and everything else in Venezuela, around himself. He had a cult of personality, and all that mattered in politics was being part of it. All politicking was internal to the party. If Chavez said you were to elected, that was all you needed. Any ability to politic outside the party, or even govern effectively, was unnecessary. If the PSUV follow the normal trend of such parties ability was actively punished.

Now a bunch of guys who spent their careers on internal politics are getting gooned by a bunch of opposition politicians who actually know how to do things like campaign.

e_angst
Sep 20, 2001

by exmarx

fnox posted:

I legitimately don't know who is advising Maduro or who is actually telling the government what to say but hoooooly poo poo they seriously need somebody to tell them the whole "economic war" deal is a loving joke and there is no chance in hell you can convince somebody who once had enough food to live that it's nice having less food now, that it's nice to queue up for hours to buy some loving food. It didn't work at the parliamentary elections campaign, it sure as hell won't work now.

Well, yesterday I was having a conversation on Facebook with two radial socialist slam poets (Americans, natch) who were 110% on board with Maduro and the Chavistas, and completely bought into the "economic war" idea. All problems in Venezuela right now are the result of CIA-sponsored disruption programs and/or US currency manipulation intentionally designed to cripple Venezuela. (This conversation came up after one of them posted on Facebook: "The best most successful socialist leaders in the world have been South American. If you can't praise Allende, Chavez, Morales, or Castro you probably should just admit you love Sanders, NOT Socialism. ‪#‎NotAsWokeAsDudeBrosThink")

Hugoon Chavez
Nov 4, 2011

THUNDERDOME LOSER

e_angst posted:

Well, yesterday I was having a conversation on Facebook with two radial socialist slam poets (Americans, natch) who were 110% on board with Maduro and the Chavistas, and completely bought into the "economic war" idea. All problems in Venezuela right now are the result of CIA-sponsored disruption programs and/or US currency manipulation intentionally designed to cripple Venezuela. (This conversation came up after one of them posted on Facebook: "The best most successful socialist leaders in the world have been South American. If you can't praise Allende, Chavez, Morales, or Castro you probably should just admit you love Sanders, NOT Socialism. ‪#‎NotAsWokeAsDudeBrosThink")

Yep. As always, it's really easy to be in favor of a horrible man and government just because they (say that they) align a bit with your personal beliefs and criticize the "right" people, while taking all the advantages of a life lived in a country that is run moderately well and offers you all kinds of comforts and rights.

I wonder how they would deal when forced to rationalize toilet paper and change their vegan diets because hey, another week were I can't find any kind of vegetable protein I can afford.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Vice News uploaded a video recently taken around the time of the parliamentary elections. It primarily follows a PSUV candidate in Caracas' District 2. There's also a pretty interesting bit that shows how the Mision Vivienda subsidized housing program was/is used entirely as a political ploy to try to buy votes. You can see the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5ot_ri1Ox8

Henry Ramos Allup said (I think in his response to Maduro's speech at the National Assembly) that Mision Vivienda doesn't belong to Maduro personally, nor does it belong to Chavez or the PSUV. As you see in the video, the whole enterprise is run entirely as if it belonged to Maduro, as if he was the one personally financing and handing over (as he sometimes does) the homes.

A parallel to how wrong that is might be to imagine collecting unemployment insurance (or welfare cheques, or any kind of social assistance) down at your local government office in Anytown, U.S.A., and having the government worker drill into your head that you need to thank Obama for being so generous and that you'd be a hypocrite if you didn't register as a Democrat.

El Hefe posted:

Listening to Nelson Bocaranda's radio show and they have Guillermo Lasso as guest who was a candidate in the 2013 presidential elections in Ecuador and it's so jarring to listen to an educated man like him speak compared to a total moron like Maduro who talks and talks but never actually says anything.

You mean he didn't demand respect for the sovereign and brave people of Ecuador? Did he at least provide vague descriptions of encounters he's had with anonymous people pointing to nebulous conspiracies against him?

Borneo Jimmy
Feb 27, 2007

by Smythe
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Victims-of-Venezuelas-Political-Violence-Condemn-Amnesty-Law-20160126-0029.html

quote:

Victims of Venezuela’s 2014 political violence said the opposition-proposed amnesty law guarantees impunity for guilty politicians and ignores those whose lives have been affected by the unrest.

Yendrys Velasquez, a representative of the Committee of Victims of the Guarimbas, spoke to teleSUR about the legislature planned by the opposition-controlled National Assembly, which seeks the release of imprisoned right-wing politicians convicted of crimes relating to the violent protests beginning in Feb. 2014 which left 43 dead.

The widow, who lost her husband in the violence, said that the amnesty law—which the opposition MUD alliance says will promote justice—will in fact prevent it.

“Now they say that it’s for justice. People who participated in a material or intellectual way in the murder of 43 people and 878 injured. Are they demanding justice, or playing with impunity?

“From my point of view they are playing with impunity,” she said.

Velasquez branded the law an insult to the family members of the victims and those whose lives were damaged by the violence.

“The feelings of the families (of those killed) don’t matter to them. The victims who have scars for life, and who will never be the same, don’t matter to them,” she said.

Velasquez’s husband, a national police officer, was killed while guarding a gas station during a violent student protest. He was hit by a bullet fired from the crowd.

“They were trying to hit a police officer,” she said, explaining that three officers were injured by gunfire.

“He was trying to reestablish public order.”

Among those in prison is Leopoldo Lopez, the former leader of the right-wing Voluntad Popular party. Lopez is charged with inciting the violence. Opposition factions claim that he is a political prisoner.

“I don’t think that (Leopoldo Lopez) is a political prisoner,” said Velasquez, “He is a politician who called for violence … And the consequence was 43 people killed.”

The proposed amnesty law is among many of the sweeping changes that the MUD alliance hopes to bring to Venezuela having won a supermajority in last year’s elections.

It is also believed they plan to oust President Nicolas Maduro and overhaul the constitution.

Shame that the opposition would approve such a slap in the face to victims of political violence.

It should also be mentioned that right wing media outlets (like Vice magazine, which is controlled by Rupert Murdoch and was founded by a literal white supremacist) have deliberately covered up the assassination of a socialist journalist by the opposition, along with the murders of thousands of Chavistas by right wing paramilitaries.

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11825

quote:

Santa Elena, January 20th, 2016. (venezuelanalysis.com)- Journalist Ricardo Duran, official Press Secretary for Venezuela’s socialist government, was shot dead in the early hours of Wednesday morning while arriving at his Caracas home.

Upon leaving his vehicle in the residential neighborhood of Caricuao, Duran was shot with a single bullet by an assailant evidently trained to kill, authorities say.

“They didn’t take anything from him; not his wallet nor cash, not his cell phone or regulatory weapon, he had a gun permit, and much less his car,” said Caracas Chief of Government Daniel Aponte, indicating that the crime is being treated by investigators as an assassination.

“We are simply dismayed,” said Aponte, calling Duran an “example of revolutionary journalism.”

The slain journalist was well-known as a former anchorman of VTV state television, and has been described as one of the key figures in authentically reporting the 2002 coup d’état against Hugo Chavez, which many private media outlets presented as a resignation.

Duran received a National Prize for Journalism in 2009 in recognition of his work in radio, and previously held the post of Director of Communications for the National Assembly.

Borneo Jimmy
Feb 27, 2007

by Smythe

Chuck Boone posted:

Henry Ramos Allup said (I think in his response to Maduro's speech at the National Assembly) that Mision Vivienda doesn't belong to Maduro personally, nor does it belong to Chavez or the PSUV. As you see in the video, the whole enterprise is run entirely as if it belonged to Maduro, as if he was the one personally financing and handing over (as he sometimes does) the homes.

Maybe it doesn't belong entirely to them, but the oppostion wouldn't have built those houses for the poor anways, indeed their plan is to "privatize" public housing and open it up to greedy speculators

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Housing-in-Venezuela-Could-Be-About-to-Get-Bad-Really-Bad-20160115-0024.html

quote:

The MUD's proposal would effectively allow these residents to easily sell the homes they were given by the state. The suggestion is certainly an unusual one: how many countries can you think of where public housing residents can sell those houses?

In the Venezuelan context, there's a good reason why residents aren't currently entitled to sell their homes: the specter of speculation. After the 2008 global financial crisis, the risks associated with unbridled speculation in the housing sector should be abundantly clear. Assuming the supply of housing remains relatively stable, it's also a no brainer that deregulation of public housing will lead to an increase in housing prices, as some residents will seek to cash in on their new property deeds. Of course, the vast majority of housing mission homeowners are unlikely to sell their homes anytime soon. In a high inflation economy like Venezuela, people tend to prefer investing their savings in assets that won't lose value as fast as the currency. For example, Venezuela is one of the few countries where buying a car is actually a half-decent investment decision, as even vehicles lose value slower than the currency. Naturally, housing is even more desirable as an investment than a car.

Further, those awarded housing actually really need it. The priority system, while imperfect, gives priority to single mothers with children and other families with children who don’t have their own home, to people living in high-risk housing – such as on steep slopes that are liable to collapse, and to people living under tin roofs or without basic services like running water.

The claim that deregulating state built housing will lead to lower property prices also makes very little sense. This claim largely rests on Borges' belief that deregulation will somehow lead to faster construction.

It's hard to see how this will happen overnight. Venezuela's private sector productivity has been weighed down for decades by Dutch Disease, and isn't likely to suddenly explode anytime soon. But for argument's sake, let's assume the MUD somehow manages to stimulate the construction sector overnight. Even then, building more houses probably won't help much. Increasing supply of products used for speculative investment doesn't always reduce consumer prices. For evidence of this, look no further than Australia's housing market.

The Australian Comparison

For years, Australia's housing market has seen both a construction and investment boom, alongside soaring prices and dwindling home ownership for ordinary Australians. According to a 2014 International Monetary Fund report, Australia now has the world's third highest housing prices. In the country's largest city, Sydney, housing prices surged five times faster than average wages in 2013 and 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The reason for the simultaneous increases in both supply and prices was due to a problem that many Venezuelans should immediately recognize: speculation.

As Kate Shaw from the University of Melbourne told housing website Domain, prices kept going up due to “infinite demand.”

“Speculative property investment … is creating extraordinary churn. We are buying, selling, demolishing, rebuilding, selling, buying more than ever before, and this is pushing up prices,” Shaw explained in mid 2015.

Since then, housing prices have begun to stabilize, but not because the country finally built enough houses to satisfy infinite demand. Instead the slowdown was precipitated largely by new regulatory measures.

More Housing Doesn't Mean Cheaper Houses

Broadly speaking, the differences between Venezuelan and Australian housing markets are like night and day, but the Australian experience clearly shows that construction booms don't necessarily lead to cheaper housing. While increased supply can reduce costs, it doesn't always, especially in conditions where chronic speculation has taken hold. Venezuela is an economy rife with speculative business practices. This is a country where unscrupulous businesspeople routinely hoard all kinds of consumer products for speculation. People buy basic products like cooking oil while they're cheap and plentiful, only to sell them at inflated prices when supply dwindles. The real kicker here is that these hoarders play a role in exacerbating supply problems in the first place, by purchasing in bulk before ordinary Venezuelans can get their fill. It's hard to believe these same people wouldn't take advantage of a deregulated housing market to hoard newly available state built homes – just like they currently hoard everything from canned sardines to spare vehicle parts.

Will Reform Hurt the Broader Economy?

In short, deregulation of state housing will have no positive impact on Venezuela's housing market, even if the MUD can snap its fingers and end decades of low private sector productivity and varying inflation. A more likely scenario is that deregulation will lead to more speculation in the housing market, pushing up prices and gouging consumers. Poor Venezuelans that are currently struggling to pay their rent will be at risk of being forced back into substandard housing, and middle class families will see a decline in disposable income.

This, in turn, will deal a major blow to one of the cornerstones of Venezuela's economic development over the past decade: effective demand. One of the few things that everyone on all sides of the political spectrum can agree on is the simple fact that throughout the 2000s, Venezuelan effective demand (the amount of cash Venezuelans are spending on stuff) has been on the rise. Once poverty stricken rural migrants moved towards the middle income, and began supporting businesses by purchasing more than they needed for basic survival. However, increased housing prices will inevitably harm effective demand elsewhere in the economy. When Venezuela eventually recovers from its current economic downturn, consumer demand should have a role to play. However, if consumers have already had their hands tied by a speculative housing market, this could harm prospects of an economic recovery.

The Sad, Sad Irony

The reason behind the calls for housing reform appear fairly straight forward: the notion of handing out property deeds is widely seen as a vote winner. After all, who doesn't want a free house that can be sold? The irony of this shouldn't be lost, though. For years, the MUD has accused Venezuela's socialist governments of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro of pursuing populist policies that have undermined the economy. Then, as one of their first moves in power in the National Assembly, the MUD has sought to undermine an economic policy that almost everyone agrees has been hugely beneficial. It's hard to escape the fact that the MUD is seeking to sacrifice Venezuela's economic interests purely to boost poll figures. It's astoundingly ironic, but by no means a joke. state housing reform could be a disaster for ordinary Venezuelans.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Borneo Jimmy posted:

It should also be mentioned that right wing media outlets (like Vice magazine, which is controlled by Rupert Murdoch and was founded by a literal white supremacist) have deliberately covered up the assassination of a socialist journalist by the opposition, along with the murders of thousands of Chavistas by right wing paramilitaries.

Where did that article say that the killing was done by the opposition?

Hugoon Chavez
Nov 4, 2011

THUNDERDOME LOSER

ComradeCosmobot posted:

Where did that article say that the killing was done by the opposition?

Ignore him, he's a bot we programmed with a perfect replica of a Chavist brain, mostly as a joke, but also as a cautionary tale.

Edit: being shot dead in Caracas is tragic but not at all surprising.

Edit 2: this July article (in Spanish)counts 2647 violent deaths in the first 6 months of 2015. http://m.eluniversal.com/caracas/150702/dos-mil-647-muertes-violentas-ocurrieron-en-seis-meses-de-2015

Hugoon Chavez fucked around with this message at 08:53 on Jan 28, 2016

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Hugoon Chavez posted:

Ignore him, he's a bot we programmed with a perfect replica of a Chavist brain, mostly as a joke, but also as a cautionary tale.

Oh I'm quite aware. The fact that he failed to reply to that simple question is, as expected, quite telling. Still, I didn't expect him to toss out such a completely worthless and easily refuted article. Usually he at least tries to throw something with a bit more "bite"/"substance" to it. Guess Venezuelanalysis is slacking...

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Opposition deputy Freddy Guevara is the president of the accountability committee at the National Assembly. The committee has met twice so far with the goal of investigating cases of corruption and embezzlement involving the government. The committee has met twice so far, and it's met fierce opposition from the PSUV.

For example, PSUV deputy Pedro Carreño opposed a proposal by the committee to expedite the process by which citizens can denounce cases of corruption. The PSUV also is opposing a proposal to summon Trujillo state governor Henry Rangel Silva to the National Assembly to explain where the $450 million his state received to build an acqueduct that never materialized went.

Guevera referenced a report published earlier this week by Transparency International which places Venezuela as the most corrupt country in Latin America (and one of the most corrupt on the planet), and summed up the past seventeen years of PSUV rule with once sentence:

quote:

The revolution only worked to steal in the name of the poor.

On the Mision Vivienda law reform:

The issue of the proposed reform to the Mision Vivienda subsidized housing program is an interesting one. However, if your starting position is “whoever disagrees with me is a Racist Bad Man™ and everything they say is wrong, and I will parrot whatever PSUV says without question”, then we can't have a discussion.

If you do possess and value critical thought, there is a really interesting intersection of issues at play in this proposed reform.

The status quo regarding Mision Vivienda tenants is problematic because they do not own the units they live in. This causes problems because the government can and has threatened to remove/removed people from their homes for political purposes. People living in these units today do so at the whim of a government that is run on whims.

The fact that tenants do not own their units makes them easy targets for criminal elements (see: Nuevo Circo raid and the “Rodeo”, “Yare” and “Tocoron” housing complex in Caracas, re-named by residents after notorious prisons for the way the buildings act as criminals "bases"). There have also been instances of government forces intimidating residents into leaving for political purposes. Beyond these examples, you can imagine that the mere precense of the threat of losing your home for upsetting the government in some way is enough to pose troubling questions about the true purpose of the program.

The proposal for the reform law is being debated right now. No one knows what will be proposed before the National Assembly as the final draft of the law. However, there are reasons to be concerned about how far the law would grant ownership rights to tenants.

We do know that during the election campaign, the law's main purpose was stated to be the granting of property deeds to tenants so that the government could not evict people at will. What is not so clear is whether or not granting tenants deeds will mean “granting them the right to sell/rent/lease” the units. On the face of it, full ownership of property implies the ability to sell that property. However, there are good reasons to believe that the bill would (and should) try to limit this right. Perhaps the most obvious one is the fact that tenants paid Bs. 0 for these units. I think the temptation to sell an apartment/house you paid nothing for if given the opportunity overnight would be too great for many to resist, and this could cause problems. It takes approximately 164 years for a person making minimum salary to save enough money to buy an apartment: or, you could make that overnight by selling your Mision Vivienda unit. The opposition is aware of this, and that's why there is a debate happening around the proposal for the law.

I'm not sure what the solution is. I think I'd like to see a compromise where the tenants own their units insofar as they can't be evicted without cause, but are prohibited from transferring ownership of the units. Another compromise might be to allow the units to be sold, but only to the government. That way, the units would always belong either to beneficiaries of the program or the government, which could then re-assign the units as needed.

It is clear that the Mision Vivienda law as it exists today poses serious problems that should be rectified. It is also clear that there are pitfalls in the proposed reform that can only be addressed by rigorous debate. The reform seeks to correct some of the issues with the current law, but if we know anything about law it’s that when you fix one issue you run the risk of creating others. Following one side blindly and refusing to listen to the other is what ruined the country in the first place. Critical thought and self-reflection are key.

Constant Hamprince
Oct 24, 2010

by exmarx
College Slice

e_angst posted:

Well, yesterday I was having a conversation on Facebook with two radial socialist slam poets (Americans, natch) who were 110% on board with Maduro and the Chavistas, and completely bought into the "economic war" idea. All problems in Venezuela right now are the result of CIA-sponsored disruption programs and/or US currency manipulation intentionally designed to cripple Venezuela. (This conversation came up after one of them posted on Facebook: "The best most successful socialist leaders in the world have been South American. If you can't praise Allende, Chavez, Morales, or Castro you probably should just admit you love Sanders, NOT Socialism. ‪#‎NotAsWokeAsDudeBrosThink")


(Real wages during Salvador Allende's tenure)
I don't think you can call Allende's successful by any metric, his domestic policies lead directly to the economic crisis that gave Pinochet the opportunity to overthrow him.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Constant Hamprince posted:


(Real wages during Salvador Allende's tenure)
I don't think you can call Allende's successful by any metric, his domestic policies lead directly to the economic crisis that gave Pinochet the opportunity to overthrow him.

It's impossible to say ANY sort of socialist leader in Latin America has been successful by any metric not issued by themselves. Clearly the countries that are doing best in the region are the ones with the smallest, most transparent governments, but of course you'll never see Telesur or any of those propaganda media outlets ever say otherwise. In the case of Venezuela, they don't even bother to publish any metrics nowadays, the economic catastrophe currently underway in this country is impossible to spin positively.

Also, the thing about the Mision Vivienda, is that well, it's obviously necessary, we need subsidies like that. The country is far too poor. But it's impossible to justify just how poorly all of these social programs are ran, and how often they fail to deliver anything because of corruption and the crippling infrastructure failures that this country has.

I mean, holy gently caress, the entire country at risk of running out of water due to a prolonged drought. This isn't California, we HAVE water, we have both natural water reservoirs and sufficient spots along the coast to set up desalinization plants, but nobody bothered to expand it. Despite being a country that produces massive amounts of crude oil, we have rolling blackouts through the country's entire power grid, nobody bothered to build more power plants.

This country is so poorly ran that it's largest export, after oil, is people. Qualified, educated workers that go on to have a better life abroad because anybody who spent 5 years studying for an undergraduate should be able to make enough loving money to buy food, and that's not the way it is right now. I'll soon be one of those people.

Hugoon Chavez
Nov 4, 2011

THUNDERDOME LOSER

fnox posted:


This country is so poorly ran that it's largest export, after oil, is people. Qualified, educated workers that go on to have a better life abroad

Also handsome.

But yeah its getting ridiculous hearing a Venezuelan literally everywhere I go in Madrid, sometimes I feel like I never left Caracas.

Then I check the forums in my cell on the subway without being afraid of a firearm robbery and I remember I'm not.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'

Hugoon Chavez posted:

Also handsome.

But yeah its getting ridiculous hearing a Venezuelan literally everywhere I go in Madrid, sometimes I feel like I never left Caracas.

Then I check the forums in my cell on the subway without being afraid of a firearm robbery and I remember I'm not.

it's still weird to me when I see in a video on youtube or whatever of people walking around the streets in Europe/Japan with their iphones out and I'm like "are they insane they gonna get robbed!" but then I quickly realize they aren't in Venezuela

Hugoon Chavez
Nov 4, 2011

THUNDERDOME LOSER

El Hefe posted:

it's still weird to me when I see in a video on youtube or whatever of people walking around the streets in Europe/Japan with their iphones out and I'm like "are they insane they gonna get robbed!" but then I quickly realize they aren't in Venezuela

One day, like two years after I moved to Madrid, I found myself suddenly in the subway, headphones on, kindle out and cellphone out, sending a text.

Freaked me the gently caress out because I realized that I actually had left that fear behind.

An epiphany in the subway reading goons discuss farts.

Borneo Jimmy
Feb 27, 2007

by Smythe

Chuck Boone posted:

Guevera referenced a report published earlier this week by Transparency International which places Venezuela as the most corrupt country in Latin America (and one of the most corrupt on the planet), and summed up the past seventeen years of PSUV rule with once sentence:


Gee I wonder why Transparency International would rank Venezuela so high?

quote:

An NGO run by a supporter of the short lived 2002 military coup held a conference in Venezuela Friday to discuss restructuring the country's social programs or “missions.”

The conference was hosted by Transparency International's Venezuela chapter, which claimed there was an “urgent” need to “transform” Venezuela's popular social missions.

“Since their creation, the missions have cost hundreds of thousands of millions of dollars without obtaining the improvements the population needs,” the organization claimed in a statement.

Venezuela's social missions have been credited by the United Nations for dramatically improving living conditions for Venezuela's poor, including reducing malnutrition and eradicating illiteracy.

Transparency International's conference to restructure the missions included talks from five legislators—all from far right factions of the right-wing coalition, the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD).

The conference on welfare reform was held at the Pestana Caracas resort, where rooms can cost around US$400 a night—roughly equivalent to eight months of wages for the average Venezuelan worker.

Transparency International's Venezuela chapter is headed by Mercedes de Freitas, who previously managed an NGO funded by the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy. Freitas supported the short lived 2002 coup. At the time, Freitas argued the overthrow couldn't be considered a military coup. The overthrow temporarily replaced President Nicolas Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez with a junta of business and military leaders, and suspended democratic institutions including the courts and constitution.

Transparency International has repeatedly ranked Venezuela as one of the world's most corrupt countries, though the organization itself has been accused of being less than transparent on Venezuela.

Its 2008 report gave Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA the lowest possible transparency ranking, arguing the company had failed to publish financial information such as revenues and royalty figures. PDVSA published updated financial details including both revenue and royalty figures around a month before Transparency International's report was released, and previous publications were mostly released on a regular basis beforehand.

In a report for The Guardian at the time, Calvin Tucker noted Transparency International's report on PDVSA was “factually inaccurate in almost every respect.”

“(Transparency International's) accusation is that PDVSA does not disclose information, not that previous accounts were submitted late. This accusation, which forms the basis of (Transparency International's) report, is demonstrably wrong,” Tucker said.

At the time of the 2008 report, one of Transparency International's largest donors was Exxon Mobil, which was involved in a multimillion dollar dispute with PDVSA at the time.

No exactly unbiased given that they are working hand in hand with right wing legislators.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Did Transparency International make those $450 million dollars disappear, or is that another conspiracy?

fnox
May 19, 2013



Borneo Jimmy posted:

No exactly unbiased given that they are working hand in hand with right wing legislators.

As said by Telesur, a media network founded by Chavez and who's president is former communication and tourism minister Andres Izarra.

Borneo Jimmy
Feb 27, 2007

by Smythe

fnox posted:

As said by Telesur, a media network founded by Chavez and who's president is former communication and tourism minister Andres Izarra.

How is that more nefarious than supposedly "neutral" media outlets that serve as propaganda machines for the Pentagon and their corporate backers?

M. Discordia
Apr 30, 2003

by Smythe
The U.S. promoting freedom in the Western Hemisphere by providing financial and logistical support to the pro-democracy forces in Venezuela is objectively good for both Venezuela and the U.S., and the only complaint I have is that we didn't do more of it and sooner.

By the way, it's no longer correct to refer to the MUD as "the opposition" -- the term you want, based on their overwhelming popular mandate in the last election and commitment to correct values of freedom, is "the only legitimate government in Venezuela," to which the socialist authoritarians are in sedition.

ugh its Troika
May 2, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

M. Discordia posted:

The U.S. promoting freedom in the Western Hemisphere by providing financial and logistical support to the pro-democracy forces in Venezuela is objectively good for both Venezuela and the U.S., and the only complaint I have is that we didn't do more of it and sooner.

By the way, it's no longer correct to refer to the MUD as "the opposition" -- the term you want, based on their overwhelming popular mandate in the last election and commitment to correct values of freedom, is "the only legitimate government in Venezuela," to which the socialist authoritarians are in sedition.

Careful, you'll make the poor Chavista's heads explode by implying they arn't the legitimate government.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Borneo Jimmy posted:

How is that more nefarious than supposedly "neutral" media outlets that serve as propaganda machines for the Pentagon and their corporate backers?

Usual Chavista logic, that you consider something is poorly administered or biased doesn't give you license to do worse. You yourself admit the clear bias your source has, Telesur is as literal as a propaganda machine as it gets, so clearly, there must be other possible ways for you to prove whatever you're trying to prove without it.

I mean, the whole world can't really be biased against the Venezuelan government, right? If everyone thinks what they're doing is stupid and wrong, they most definitely are doing something both stupid and wrong.

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Chuck Boone posted:

On the Mision Vivienda law reform:

The issue of the proposed reform to the Mision Vivienda subsidized housing program is an interesting one. However, if your starting position is “whoever disagrees with me is a Racist Bad Man™ and everything they say is wrong, and I will parrot whatever PSUV says without question”, then we can't have a discussion.

If you do possess and value critical thought, there is a really interesting intersection of issues at play in this proposed reform.

The status quo regarding Mision Vivienda tenants is problematic because they do not own the units they live in. This causes problems because the government can and has threatened to remove/removed people from their homes for political purposes. People living in these units today do so at the whim of a government that is run on whims.

The fact that tenants do not own their units makes them easy targets for criminal elements (see: Nuevo Circo raid and the “Rodeo”, “Yare” and “Tocoron” housing complex in Caracas, re-named by residents after notorious prisons for the way the buildings act as criminals "bases"). There have also been instances of government forces intimidating residents into leaving for political purposes. Beyond these examples, you can imagine that the mere precense of the threat of losing your home for upsetting the government in some way is enough to pose troubling questions about the true purpose of the program.

The proposal for the reform law is being debated right now. No one knows what will be proposed before the National Assembly as the final draft of the law. However, there are reasons to be concerned about how far the law would grant ownership rights to tenants.

We do know that during the election campaign, the law's main purpose was stated to be the granting of property deeds to tenants so that the government could not evict people at will. What is not so clear is whether or not granting tenants deeds will mean “granting them the right to sell/rent/lease” the units. On the face of it, full ownership of property implies the ability to sell that property. However, there are good reasons to believe that the bill would (and should) try to limit this right. Perhaps the most obvious one is the fact that tenants paid Bs. 0 for these units. I think the temptation to sell an apartment/house you paid nothing for if given the opportunity overnight would be too great for many to resist, and this could cause problems. It takes approximately 164 years for a person making minimum salary to save enough money to buy an apartment: or, you could make that overnight by selling your Mision Vivienda unit. The opposition is aware of this, and that's why there is a debate happening around the proposal for the law.

I'm not sure what the solution is. I think I'd like to see a compromise where the tenants own their units insofar as they can't be evicted without cause, but are prohibited from transferring ownership of the units. Another compromise might be to allow the units to be sold, but only to the government. That way, the units would always belong either to beneficiaries of the program or the government, which could then re-assign the units as needed.

It is clear that the Mision Vivienda law as it exists today poses serious problems that should be rectified. It is also clear that there are pitfalls in the proposed reform that can only be addressed by rigorous debate. The reform seeks to correct some of the issues with the current law, but if we know anything about law it’s that when you fix one issue you run the risk of creating others. Following one side blindly and refusing to listen to the other is what ruined the country in the first place. Critical thought and self-reflection are key.

Are you familiar with the 'Right to buy' policy in the UK? People were allowed to buy and resell government subsidised houses, which produced windfalls for some tenants but depleted the subsidised housing stock over time, among other effects. It may have come up in the debates. It was the first thing I thought of when you mentioned the proposal, but I'm British.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
Right to Buy was an 80s UK policy formulated in the realization that nobody except the incumbent tenants were really interested in politically supporting the existence of council housing. That, itself, was the product of the 70s realization that council housing that successfully housed a large share of the working class could not successfully object if the center decided to foist the lumpenproletariat onto them too - which turned council housing estates into slums and thereby collapsed the political consensus that created them. The tenants that had clung on - and who had jobs, and hence money, to buy their council house - would proceed to do so, thus eroding support even further.

There are exactly zero liberal-democratic countries that successfully maintained a political consensus to (1) provide public housing en masse, but (2) only to the jobless, drug-addicted, psychologically unstable, etc. Either you house every income class up to the aspirational petite-bourgeoisie (who will then underpin such a housing policy in the long-term), including a conciliation to their characteristically conservative concerns, or you'll socially house no one at all. The public only ever bought into the idea of council housing because it felt that the "deserving poor" deserved one. The task of a liberal, reformist government is tricking this impulse into nonetheless paying for the undeserving poor.

The problem in Venezuela looks a little different - in a time of political instability and incipient state insolvency, it is worth questioning the wisdom of seeking long-term targets in the social housing stock at all. Granting titles is more of a question of mutual political disarmament - ensuring that existing occupants do not have to fear for their existing gains, and instead giving them a material stake in defending its future property value.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Venezuela is bankrupt and cannot afford useless entitlement spending like housing subsidies. How much does toilet paper cost in Venezuela these days if you want it within half an hour?

M. Discordia
Apr 30, 2003

by Smythe
A clearer way of phrasing that is that a precondition for a successful welfare state is that the money you hand out can actually be used to purchase necessities, the housing stock you put the poor in won't be looted to burn wood for fuel, the children whose health care you pay for won't be drafted as soldiers into a civil war, etc. Allowing the economy and civil society to further deteriorate will hurt the poor most of all. The basic issues of restoring democracy and openness to Venezuela are absolutely fundamental to any real program of social democracy, not tangential or in opposition to it.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
I actually wasn't at all aware with the "Right to Buy" policy in the UK, so thank you both for bringing it up! There are definitely lots of interesting parallels to think about.

I've yet to see any details on the final draft of the law (if one exists yet). I'm not 100% familiar with Venezuelan legislative procedure, but I believe that what was approved was the proposal for the law, not the law itself. I could be completely wrong about this, but as far as I know the approved proposal is now sitting in a committee somewhere awaiting its fate.

The PSUV are continuing to act like a gang of 10-year-old thugs, as the Minister of Housing and Habitat (responsible for Mision Vivienda) said yesterday that his office would no longer be providing figures to the National Assembly. Here's the clip with his comments, and my translation below (if you want to skip over his rambling fever dream, he makes the comment at the very end): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAOPt60x-s8

quote:

Quevedo: ... there is no doubt. And on top of that, they have to know that we also have information that, for example, they get together in Ciudad Tiuna. They meet there, and they look for the people that they placed there as infiltrators, so that these infiltrators will scare people [living in subsidized housing buildings] into thinking that we're going to take away their homes, and that we will evict them. There's a campaign -- we have intelligence, and look -- they go there --

Silva: Just like what happened with the long lines?

Quevedo: Of course! They go in there and they keep aggravating -- I was in Ciudad Caribia today -- I was there with Minister Molina, and we conducted an operation there. It was [with the] Fundacion Mision Habitat to [create] protocol, because this is a whole city with 20,000 projected units. Beautiful apartments -- it's a city, a beautiful city. So, we started [creating] protocol with the first few buildings. Once we got into a rhythm building the homes, we're now in the process of continuing the protocol. Well, they've [the opposition] gone out there to scare residents! Some of them have documents in hand, and the ones who are waiting for this protocol process, they're going out there -- they've got their agents out there scaring people, saying that we're going to take their homes and evict them. That's a lie!

We have, of course, advanced a lot -- and we're not going to give them [the National Assembly] the figures anymore, because what they're doing is scoping out the market so that they can keep going...

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Chuck Boone posted:

I actually wasn't at all aware with the "Right to Buy" policy in the UK, so thank you both for bringing it up! There are definitely lots of interesting parallels to think about.

I've yet to see any details on the final draft of the law (if one exists yet). I'm not 100% familiar with Venezuelan legislative procedure, but I believe that what was approved was the proposal for the law, not the law itself. I could be completely wrong about this, but as far as I know the approved proposal is now sitting in a committee somewhere awaiting its fate.

The PSUV are continuing to act like a gang of 10-year-old thugs, as the Minister of Housing and Habitat (responsible for Mision Vivienda) said yesterday that his office would no longer be providing figures to the National Assembly. Here's the clip with his comments, and my translation below (if you want to skip over his rambling fever dream, he makes the comment at the very end): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAOPt60x-s8

In response to the minister's refusal to provide the metrics necessary for evaluating department funding, it should be necessary for the National Assembly to de-authorize funding of the minister's department until such data is made available.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

My Imaginary GF posted:

In response to the minister's refusal to provide the metrics necessary for evaluating department funding, it should be necessary for the National Assembly to de-authorize funding of the minister's department until such data is made available.

I'm sure the National Assembly is putting all options on the table, but as of right now I haven't seen any kind of response from them on this particular issue.

The National Assembly is trying really hard to be taken seriously because of the attitude the PSUV have taken since the election. I don't have the exact quote handy, but after the National Assembly approved the proposed Mision Vivienda law reform, Maduro went on television and called the vote a legislative coup, and called on supporters to ignore the decision.

The National Assembly can (and should) fight hard to be taken seriously lest it be swept aside by the PSUV and completely ignored. Unfortunately, the fact that the Supreme Court is completely submissive to the PSUV will probably make this really difficult.

fnox
May 19, 2013



My Imaginary GF posted:

In response to the minister's refusal to provide the metrics necessary for evaluating department funding, it should be necessary for the National Assembly to de-authorize funding of the minister's department until such data is made available.

The National Assembly can remove ministers with a vote of censure. It sadly will do nothing as Maduro can legit always find worse ministers to occupy their jobs, and the National Assembly can't bother firing all of them, so I can only assume they wait until a minister does something really loving illegal until they go for that option.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

fnox posted:

The National Assembly can remove ministers with a vote of censure. It sadly will do nothing as Maduro can legit always find worse ministers to occupy their jobs, and the National Assembly can't bother firing all of them, so I can only assume they wait until a minister does something really loving illegal until they go for that option.

You can always fire all of them. This is why we have nomination processes in America and require Congressional approval for appointments to move forward.

Your national assembly just needs to find a good process for slowing executive ability to appoint individuals for positions without legislative approval.

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fnox
May 19, 2013



The National Assembly now has a Youtube channel that livestreams only the plenary sessions thus far. The link is right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba4OcD3_wc4.

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