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Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




Mercury_Storm posted:

So what city(s) are likely to become Canada's Detroit once the poo poo hits the fan?

All of them.

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namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I think most of the jig dancing east coast is best placed to become Detroit.

Ccs
Feb 25, 2011


Yeah, Nova Scotia has a good chance of becoming the next Detroit.
It seems like every store in Halifax is having huge sales right now, desperate to sell stuff even with the dollar being so low. If Americans could teleport here they could buy all the shoes and clothes that they could ever want.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion/1277869-is-nova-scotia-the-next-detroit

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Isn't Windsor already Canada's Detroit? I vaguely recall seeing a mostly puffy piece on its recent kind of-sort of-maybe resurgence.

Anyway, there aren't really any major cities so beholden to one or two industries the way Detroit and other rust belt cities were. Fort McMurray looks like it was always a shithole, even when oil was >$100. I suppose you can argue that places like Sudbury and Hamilton had nasty falls, but they never had the peak that Detroit had and they're not anywhere near as bad now. At least the air in Sudbury is breathable now, even if some of the surroundings still look like moonscapes.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.straight.com/life/623821/kids-behaviour-linked-level-parents-level-unsecured-debt

quote:



The effects of Vancouver ranking as third worst on a housing affordability study in nine countries may go beyond the obvious.

New research shows that certain types of debt can have adverse effects on children’s socio-emotional well-being.

A study by researchers at the University of Wisconsin at Madison and Dartmouth published by the journal Pediatrics found that children of parents with higher levels of mortgage and student debt had a greater socioemotional well-being with fewer behavioural problems than children whose parents had higher levels of or increases in unsecured debt (credit card or other types of debt that is not tied to an asset).

High levels of unsecured debt may create stress or anxiety in parents, which may hinder their ability to exhibit good parenting behaviours, the researchers found.

The study was led by Lawrence M. Berger, director of the Institute for Research on Poverty and doctoral program chair in the School of Social Work at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Jason N. Houle, assistant professor of sociology at Dartmouth.

The findings suggest that when parents decide to borrow money, they should try to avoid loans with high fees and high interest rates, to the greatest extent possible.

There you go. Incontrovertible proof that buying a house is the most socially responsible thing to do.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

holy poo poo u guys

quote:

B.C. government planning study on impact of foreign home ownership

The provincial government will pay for an external study on the impacts of foreign investment and ownership in B.C.’s property market, The Province has learned.

A July 2015 confidential “issues note” addressed to Housing Minister Rich Coleman says that B.C. Housing has been tasked with researching foreign investment impacts.

And a January 2016 email written by B.C. Housing’s manager of research, Deborah Kraus, confirms the external study and outlines parameters.

In an email titled “Foreign Investment Research Initiative,” Kraus writes that, “B.C. Housing has issued a request for proposals for a consultant to conduct research on this topic and expects to engage a consultant by the end of January 2016.”

The email says the research will take about six months to complete and the consultant will look at: key factors affecting prices for new and resale homes in B.C.; impact of foreign home ownership on home prices, with a particular focus on the Lower Mainland; what sources of data are needed to measure the extent of foreign home ownership and price impacts; to what extent other jurisdictions are experiencing impacts from foreign home ownership, and what measures they are taking.

“It is premature to say if the research will be made public,” Kraus states in an email obtained by The Province.

B.C. Housing officials did not answer a detailed list of questions from The Province on the planned study, such as how much it would cost, what methodology would be used, how the contractor will be chosen, and whether the call for proposals is publicly accessible or not.

By undertaking a study that has not been publicly disclosed, Victoria appears to be deviating from its public stance on offshore investment.

In June 2015, Premier Christy Clark responded to calls from Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson to clamp down on property speculation by suggesting foreign cash has little impact on B.C. home prices.

“First, industry experts estimate that most of the real estate speculation taking place in the region is being done by local investors,” Clark responded in a letter to Robertson.

Supporting her position, Clark attached an analysis completed by the B.C. Real Estate Association and the Ministry of Finance.

“There is a perception that foreign investors and speculators are driving an affordability crisis in residential real estate — particularly in Greater Vancouver,” the Finance Ministry report said. “The data we have does not support this perception.”

The report said “industry experts” estimate foreign buyers make up less than five per cent of home sales activity in Greater Vancouver.

A confidential July 13, 2015 “Analysis of Housing Market Affordability” note prepared for Housing Minister Rich Coleman suggests responses were prepared to answer requests for action on foreign investment.

Recommended responses for the issue, however, are redacted in the document obtained by The Province.

However, Coleman was quoted in a July 16, 2015 report saying that Victoria already had the information it needs on foreign ownership of B.C. homes.

“We’ve worked with the real estate guys for years and have got data on sales,” Coleman was quoted in The Tyee. According to the report, Coleman was pressed on why Victoria would not share the data publicly.

He reportedly answered that sharing data could endanger foreign investment in B.C. and “throws an ethnic group out there and says they’re the problem.”

B.C. Housing officials did not respond to interview requests by The Province.

B.C. Housing’s plans to engage an external consultant follow yet another public plea from Mayor Robertson in early January.

Robertson called for better provincial and federal data on home ownership and acknowledged — apparently for the first time — concerns about foreign investment, citing “stark and alarming” proof that Lower Mainland housing is “divorced from local incomes.”

Metro Vancouver home sales set an all-time record in 2015, the region’s real estate board said in early January, with the benchmark price for detached properties surging 24.3 per cent year-over-year in December to $1.248 million.

The average detached home in the City of Vancouver costs $2.5 million.

Premier Clark has hinted measures to tackle housing affordability will be announced in February’s budget, but says her government does not want to do anything that would cause existing homeowners to lose equity with falling property prices.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
"Issues note"

This is the real reason we need to kill all people with MBAs.

quote:


“We’ve worked with the real estate guys for years and have got data on sales,” Coleman was quoted in The Tyee. According to the report, Coleman was pressed on why Victoria would not share the data publicly. 

He reportedly answered that sharing data could endanger foreign investment in B.C. and “throws an ethnic group out there and says they’re the problem.” 

Guys, problems should be hidden from the public so that they don't know they they exist

Holy gently caress how can you day anything this loving stupid and still have a pulse. Rich Coleman you dumb fat gently caress

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Jan 31, 2016

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
I wonder how second and third-generation Canadians of Chinese descent feel about assholes defending their "ethnicity" by treating rich mainlander immigrants with kid gloves all the time. The problem isn't Chinese people, it's lovely wealthy immigrants using real estate as a way to shelter money from their lovely government.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://twitter.com/hmacbe/status/693840599665934336?s=09

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

Cultural Imperial posted:

"Issues note"

This is the real reason we need to kill all people with MBAs.


An issues note is a two-page document that summarizes a problem and recommends an action. Any big and/or complex organization that has an executive team and a board of directors use these. They are an effective communications tool.

Although given the BC government's track record, they probably scribble shorthand on a Post-It note and stick it on the wall somewhere.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Everything is an "issue" and nothing is characterized as a problem.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
According to a friend of mine who worked at BMO a few years back you're never supposed to talk about "problems", only "opportunities".

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

Cultural Imperial posted:

Everything is an "issue" and nothing is characterized as a problem.

That's the culture of an government leadership bereft of ideas...no focus on solutions, just getting re-elected. Most of the blame for this mess sits at the feet of Christy Clark - she is responsible for the culture, and it has gone from Campbell's Policy of the Month Club, to Christy Clark's all LNG, all the time, approach to governing.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe

Eatsubsidize the rich!

Aagar
Mar 30, 2006

E/N Gestapo
I am talking to a mod right now about getting you probated/banned/gassed
Just heard this ad on the radio. I thought I must have misheard, but Google verifies it to be true:

http://www.equitylinevisa.ca/

Advertisement posted:

The Home Trust Equityline® Visa*
The card that puts the equity in your home to work

Use your home equity to secure up to $100,000† in credit
Rates from 9.99% with low monthly payments
Earn 1% CashBack every time you make a purchase‡
Great for home improvement, debt consolidation, truck/horse equity and more

What I suppose I don't understand, out of all of the potential things that are not understandable with this card, is, if one can secure a HELOC at something like 3.2%, why in the hell would someone get a HELOC VISA at 10%? "Convenience"?

In any event, I'm adding it to my pile of evidence that the end is nigh.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2dEM2AIwi4

EQUITY MAAAATE

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
lol

Also 6 digit phone numbers wtf

Ambrose Burnside
Aug 30, 2007

pensive

Rime posted:

Junior Forester positions. Trying to get a years experience (and cash) in since I can't get into school till 2017 now. :smith:

i'm going to george brown or sheridan in the fall or more likely spring 2017 for a cnc machining diploma program because, sure, manufacturing in canada in the year of our lord twenty sixteen is a smart bet, whatever

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/hard-hit-alberta-may-be-eligible-for-250-million-federal-relief-60-per-resident

quote:


The Liberal government has confirmed that Alberta may qualify for a financial boost under a little-known federal program to help ease the province’s economic pain from falling commodity prices.

As The Canadian Press reported Thursday, the province could be eligible for payments under the fiscal stabilization program, Finance Minister Bill Morneau acknowledged during question period.

Provinces can make claims under the program when their revenues tumble by more than five per cent from one year to the next.

The Alberta government has projected a double-digit decline in revenues in 2015-16 due to the steep slide in resource prices.

“I spoke yesterday with the Alberta minister of finance to see how we could work together and I’m pleased to say that he understands that there’s a stabilization fund that Alberta can apply for,” Morneau said Friday.

“The potential is up to $250 million. Should they apply, we would work expeditiously to move forward on that request.”

Payments from the program were capped in the late 1980s at $60 per provincial resident. Alberta’s population is about 4.1 million.

Alberta Finance Minister Joe Ceci told CP earlier this week that he was looking forward to a discussion with Morneau about possible federal help for the province’s finances.

He didn’t get into the details, but when asked whether he might ask the federal government for a loan, he replied: “Yeah, potentially.”

Ceci said he would also like to see Ottawa speed up promised infrastructure investments and provide more support for getting pipeline access to tidewater.

Last fall, the Alberta government projected its revenues would sink 11.5 per cent from 2014-15 to 2015-16. Experts say it could end up worse than that because oil prices have continued to drop.

“Albertans are hurting,” Ceci said.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pvf_OBuJVE

maybe we can start adopting starving albertan roughnecks for just 15 cents a day

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

This is nicer and larger then my dorm room that was built in the 60's, way nicer.

Reverse Centaur posted:

I dunno, churches are already getting into the condo racket



Is this the Condo towers the Anglican church is building in Ottawa or is it someplace else?

sbaldrick fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Feb 1, 2016

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
The G&M interviewed Steve Eisman, aka the Steve Carrell character in The Big Short.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/invest-like-a-legend-the-skeptic-steve-eisman/article28378668/

quote:

What are your views on Canada, in light of this long real estate bull run?

Canada has ridden the commodity supercycle probably better than anyone else, and the only thing I’m convinced about Canada right now is that credit losses are going to go up. And not just in terms of housing—universally. The only question, and it’s way too early to know, is how high?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://vanmag.com/city/vancouvers-next-condo-crisis/

quote:


Are low reserve ratios in this city's stratas an invitation to disaster or just business as usual?

Pre-budget consultations are already underway for the new federal Liberal government’s first budget, and the talk is already focused on just how large a deficit it will include. But Vancouver area condo owners shouldn’t get too smug about their own fiscal prudence—after all, they’re almost certainly sitting on a substantial deficit of their own. “There’s a truth in British Columbia that strata owners need to understand,” says Jeremy Bramwell, the president of Bramwell & Associates Realty Advisors. “They’re all going to have special levies. They’re all deficient. There is no strata that’s going to get away with no special levy.”

That’s because, according to Bramwell, the vast majority of stratas in this province have a reserve adequacy—that is, the ratio of its Contingency Reserve Fund (CRF) to the amount that would need to be in the bank today to cover all of its future obligations—below 35 percent. “The rule of thumb is that if you’re under 35 percent funded, you’re considered to be critical,” he says. “Typically, I would say that most—and when I say ‘most’ I’m probably talking over 90 percent—would fall into that critical category.” That, he says, means most of the owners in those stratas can expect special assessments in the near future in order to cover the costs of repairing or replacing common assets—bills that are regularly counted with five figures and often even with six. “Owners really need to understand the concept of reserve adequacy and how it relates to their strata. And not everybody does.”

That lack of knowledge can be explained, in part, by the fact that the legislation requiring stratas to take an accounting of their reserve adequacy ratio is relatively new. In October 2009 the province made changes to the Strata Property Act that required strata corporations to obtain depreciation reports (or, if they so chose, bypass that requirement through a three-quarter majority vote). On December 14, 2011, it implemented regulations that gave strata corporations until December 14, 2013, to get a depreciation report done on behalf of their members and have it updated every three years.

Those depreciation reports give stratas an accounting of what kind of shape their building is in, what kinds of renovations and repairs they should plan on making in the near future, and how well prepared their CRF is to cover the costs. But many of those stratas—Bramwell believes it’s more than half—still haven’t had a depreciation report done, and he thinks that’s going to end badly for a lot of local condo owners. “Those who don’t have a DR [depreciation report], in most cases, have no clue of what’s coming up. I would say that 99 percent of people, until they look at a DR, never know truly what they’re truly responsible for.”

An under-funded CRF isn’t necessarily a bad thing, mind you. According to Ben Chimes, a realtor with RE/MAX Crest Westside, many CRFs are underfunded by choice rather than neglect or incompetence. “We’ve known that most stratas are under-funded for decades. The strategy here has always been to keep maintenance fees as low as you can—just cover off core costs—and when a big project comes up everyone gets a bill in the mail,” he says. “Is there a right and wrong way to do it? No. There are pros and cons to both approaches.”

Indeed, according to Adrienne Murray, a lawyer with Hammerberg Lawyers LLP, that decision to deal with special assessments when they come rather than fully funding the strata’s CRF is a popular one. “There are people that have the view that they don’t want to put their money in the strata’s savings account, if you will—they want to put it in their savings account, and write the cheque when the money is needed. I see that particularly with seniors. They’re quite happy to have the money in their RRSPs or RRIFs or whatever they’ve got, and they will write the cheque when the cheque is needed. But they’d rather not put it forward in the contingency fund.”

There’s also the fact, Chimes says, that all depreciation reports aren’t created equal. “A poorly done depreciation report is more damaging than no depreciation report at all. Who does them is exceptionally important.” Why? Because, he says, they often err on the side of caution—and cost. “When people own an old boat or an old car, they have a lot of different options on how to maintain it. Sure, you could always upgrade everything to the newest parts or the highest quality equipment, but you don’t need to—they can still be very functional. And it’s kind of the same with buildings. Let’s say you have a late-1970s cedar-siding building. Is an engineer going to tell you that you should put concrete board rain screen exterior on it? Of course they are. But the cedar siding has already worked for 40 years, and if you just repair the rotten cedar boards you can probably maintain it for another 30 or 40 [years], and that works too.”

His advice? Either hope that someone on your strata’s council knows how to ask the right questions of the firm that did your depreciation report, or pay a third-party engineering firm to tender out the work that needs to be done and assess it accordingly. The latter is often an unpopular approach, given that it costs extra money, but Chimes thinks it’s a smart investment over the long run. “I’ve been the strata president of three buildings now, and my push within those stratas was always to have proper information before we made decisions. You’re worried about spending an extra thousand or two thousand dollars on reporting, but you’re making a decision on a $400,000 or $500,000 spend. I want the right information before we do that.”

That’s why, Bramwell says, punting the decision to get a depreciation report done down the road is a bad choice for the average residential strata. “Those who do have a DR have a financial plan and an estimate of value. They may not like what they’re looking at, but at least they have knowledge of what the costs are going to be in the future. They can make an educated decision at that time.” That decision, he says, is a familiar one for most people—save now, or pay later. “In the funding model, the question that strata councils need to address is how they’re going to fund it. Are they going to increase the contributions now and gain some interest on that? Or are they going to hit people with higher special levies later? That is a conversation that strata councils are having when they get their depreciation reports.”

But, he says, given the number of stratas that don’t seem to want to make those educated decisions, it might be time for the province to force their hand. “The reason why DRs were started is because people don’t look at the long-term. They just look at the short-term. The government has to save itself and say ‘everybody has to bite the bullet by January 1, 2018’ and just make everybody do it. That would be, from the policy side, the only thing the ministry can do, although from what I understand there’s no political appetite for that.”


lol

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

I hope Canada goes bankrupt and is forced to merge with the US similar to what Scotland had to do with England.

Americans must have revenge for getting humiliated in the war of 1812.

Ccs
Feb 25, 2011


That would make filing my taxes easier so I am all for that.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Hmmm the Canadian solution seems to be to just not do the Depreciation report, then you never need to spend the money.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I think the real story here is that the provincial government isn't interested in enforcing its own laws in the interest of protecting ~home owner equity~~

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKLi1aqdp20&t=632s

"Don't put all of your economics eggs in one basket."
- Mike de Jong

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKLi1aqdp20&t=632s

"Don't put all of your economics eggs in one basket."
- Mike de Jong

Also the flip side of the weak loonie is really painful for canadians.

Yes it might stimulate exports but on the flip anything outside the country such as the cauliflowers get to be much more expensive.

Also if you wanted to buy US made robots and other capital improvements then they would also be more expensive due to the weak loonie.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

etalian posted:

Also the flip side of the weak loonie is really painful for canadians.

Yes it might stimulate exports but on the flip anything outside the country such as the cauliflowers get to be much more expensive.

Also if you wanted to buy US made robots and other capital improvements then they would also be more expensive due to the weak loonie.

I think household debt to income ratio is gonna get hilarious.

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line
it isn't already?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I'm not laughing until it's 2:1.


Cmon

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

JawKnee posted:

it isn't already?

It already exceed the worst during the US bubble which was 152%.

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

2:1? Bitch, please - that is scrub tier :whatup:

quote:

In Sweden, more than 590 000 households have a debt ratio exceeding 300 percent, which represents 40 percent of all households with a mortgage. Among the new mortgage borrowers corresponding proportion is nearly 60 percent.

This writes the Riksbank in its Financial Stability Report on Wednesday.

"If household in Sweden with a debt ratio of 300 percent or more would adjust their consumption in a similar way as was done in Denmark during the financial crisis to the level of their consumption according to the Riksbank's calculations could be reduced by about 5 percent," writes the bank.

In 2014, approximately 170 000 households have a debt ratio of 600 percent or more. This corresponds to approximately 10 percent of all households with a mortgage. Also among the new mortgage holders had about 10 percent a debt ratio of over 600 percent.

With today's low interest rates, these domestic interest payments after tax approximately 8 percent of their disposable income. When mortgage rates rise to more normal levels (6 per cent), interest payments increase to about 25 per cent of their disposable income.

"For a household with a debt ratio of 600 percent, a loan of just over 2 million, and a disposable income of SEK 30 000 a month, this would mean that interest costs after interest deduction increases from 2500 SEK to 7500 SEK per month," the Riksbank.

With a stressed mortgage rate (8 percent) were the interest payments amount to about 35 per cent of disposable income. This would mean an interest expense for interest deductions of approximately SEK 10 000 per month.

quote:

The debt ratio is highest in Stockholm municipalities of Vaxholm, Lidingö and Värmdö. This is the ratio of 500 percent, compared with the average ratio which is at 315 percent.

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


sbaldrick posted:

Is this the Condo towers the Anglican church is building in Ottawa or is it someplace else?

First Baptist Church in downtown Vancouver. It'll be 56 storeys and due to its location will be one of the tallest buildings in town.

quote:

For more than 50 years the church has been slowly assembling land on the block behind it. Now, as the church — the oldest Baptist congregation in Vancouver — wrestles with a lack of space, a growing congregation, a full agenda of community programs and a church in need of restoration, it has decided to redevelop the land and put the proceeds toward those needs.

http://www.vancouversun.com/downtown+vancouver+church+plans+build+storey+highrise/11372323/story.html?__lsa=ba5a-4551

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


Cultural Imperial posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKLi1aqdp20&t=632s

"Don't put all of your economics eggs in one basket."
- Mike de Jong

Interesting that the correspondent is married to Darryl Bosa of Bosa Development fame.

less than three
Aug 9, 2007



Fallen Rib
"Don't put all of your economics eggs in one basket."
BC Ministry of future LNG, LNG markets and we're serious, LNG.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Rime posted:

Junior Forester positions. Trying to get a years experience (and cash) in since I can't get into school till 2017 now. :smith:

Why don't you build up another multi-million dollar company like you claimed before?

Fried Watermelon
Dec 29, 2008


etalian posted:

I hope Canada goes bankrupt and is forced to merge with the US similar to what Scotland had to do with England.

Americans must have revenge for getting humiliated in the war of 1812.

Canada will merge with China once they buy all the houses

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

etalian posted:

I hope Canada goes bankrupt and is forced to merge with the US similar to what Scotland had to do with England.

Americans must have revenge for getting humiliated in the war of 1812.

Later this year America might get a leader that's significantly more socialist than the most liberal leader we will allow so unironically support this.

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PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

peter banana posted:

Later this year America might get a leader that's significantly more socialist than the most liberal leader we will allow so unironically support this.

No peter banana, weed isn't legal yet, you shouldn't be smoking it in such quantities!

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